The Water is Rising: Strap on The Water is Rising: Strap on Your WelliesYour Wellies

Global Warming: Impacts on New York CityGlobal Warming: Impacts on New York City

Storms and Sea Level Storms and Sea Level RiseRise

Future scenarios: Min Max

Projected mid-century rise 18 cm 60 cm

Projected rise by the 2080s 24 cm 110 cm(Gornitz 2000)

The areas in red are projected to be inundated by a 1m sea level rise http://geongrid.geo.arizona.edu/arcims/website/slrus48prvi/viewer.htm

The current rate of sea level rise is largely due to thermal expansion of the seas and melting ice sheets.

The 100-year floodThe 100-year flood

The 100-year flood height in New York City (a flood that has the probability of occurring once every 100 years) is almost 3 meters. It is projected to rise to 3.8 meters by the 2050’s, and from 3.2 to 4.2 meters by the 2080’s (Gornitz, 2000).

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_05/

InfrastructureInfrastructureCommunications and Power Infrastructure Powerlines Electric power generating units in the Tri-State area

Sewers: Increased loads to the city's drainage systems, Dense urban development exacerbates drainage

problems

Transportation Infrastructure: Most rail and tunnel entrances are at elevations of 3 m or

less John F Kennedy airport would be under an estimated 20

feet of water in the even of a Category 4 hurricane (Mandia).

Historical Floods/Storm Historical Floods/Storm RecordRecord

Northeasters 1962 1991 1992 1993

Tropical storms Tropical Storm

Floyd (1999)

Hurricanes 1893 1938

http://www.livescience.com/environment/050114_underground_floods.html

Levels of only 0.30–0.61 meters above that which occurred during a December 1992 storm could have produced massive inundation and loss of life (Gornitz, et al).

http://www.climate.org/topics/weather/new_york_severe_storm_threat.shtml

JFK airport would be under an estimated 20 feet of water in the event of a Category 4 hurricane (Mandia).

Beginnning to Tabulate the Costs: Methodology Costs of Increased Snowfall

snow overtimesnowfall (in) salt used cost of salt used total cost ($)

FY01 23,900,000 39.3 404,247 12127410 36,027,410FY02 3,685,000 3.8 60,619 1818570 5,503,570

FY03 21,582,000 55.5 390,441 11713230 33,295,230

Fy04 16,378,000 38.6 352,053 10561590 26,939,590FY05 22,153,000 42.8 332,770 9983100 32,136,100

(Department of Sanitation)

Floodgates and levees:Floodgates and levees: Costs of floodgates:

$289.5 million – New York city

$720 million – New York region

Cost of levees:

$600 million – New York city

$1.5 billion – New York region

(Bloomfield 1999, Gornitz, 2001)

Public Public Health: Health:

Can New York Can New York Handle the Handle the

Heat?Heat?

Possible Scenarios for Calculating Heat-Related Deaths: 2050

Scenario A2: assumes rapid human population growth low environmental concerns, and lack of aggressive greenhouse gas regulations

Scenario B2: assumes moderate population growth, more concern about environmental sustainability, and more aggressive greenhouse gas regulations

•Columbia Earth Institute, published in the American Journal of Public Health,

•which uses IPCC-SRES scenarios to asses possible heat-related New York.

Calculating percent change of heat-related deaths based on future scenarios allows us to see the great effect that heat has on human health. Percent Change is calculated by: (P2 – P1)/ P1 * 100

Without Climate Acclimatization

Percent of Total Population (%)

Percent Change (%)

2000 0.009297819

2050 A2 0.017434353 83.56

2050 B2 0.015482746 63.01

With Climate Acclimatization

Percent of Total Population (%)

Percent Change (%)

2050 A2 0.014897264 56.84

2050 B2 0.013270925 39.72

* Calculations made based on Census 2000 population of New York (1537195)*Assumes unchanging population for year to year

Temperature Days needed for Maturation of Malaria Parasite

68º 26 days

77º 13 days

75.7º X???9 1-- = -- cross-multiply.50 X

X = 5.5% , so for every degree, there’s a 5.5% reduction in maturation time

75.7ºF - 68ºF = + 7.7º 7.7 º (0.055) = .4235 42.45% reduction in maturation time for 7.7 º increase in temperature26 days(0.4235) = 10.92 11 day decrease26 days – 11 days = 15 days!

At 75.7 º F the length of time for parasite maturation is only 15 days!

At 79.5 º F it only takes 10 days for the parasite to mature!

** these calculations assume a linear relationship between time for maturation and temperature, which might not be the case.

PlaNYC for the Future

On Earth Day 2007, Mayor Bloomberg introduced PlaNYC, a proposal that strives for environmental sustainability through reducing carbon emissions, creating more green spaces, and reworking the public transportation system.

Carbon Emissions by Sector

Energy consumption is not only a problem in New York City, it is also responsible for 40% of the Global Carbon Emissions. 

Fossil Energy is a GOAL! There are zero emissions, carbon storage and interconvertibility. By continually developing this large scale option, we could solve the problem of Global Warming.

As PlaNYC does outline cleaner power plants, it is important for this sector to be “cleaned up” first because it is the largest emitter of carbon dioxide. 

Proactive Solutions