THE VIETNAMESE LABOUR MARKET’S DEVELOPMENT UNTIL 2020: CHALLENGES, CHANCES AND PERSPECTIVES Ass....

Ass. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Ba NgocInstitute of Labour Science and Social Affairs

Nuremberg- October 08, 2012

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Contents

1. ASSESSMENT OF PERFORMANCE OF VIETNAM’S LABOUR MARKET

2. OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES OF VIETNAM’S LABOUR MARKET UNTIL 2020

3. ORIENTATIONS, OBJECTIVES AND SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING VIETNAM’S LABOUR MARKET 2011-2020

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1.1. Legal framework

1.2. Labour demand

1.3. Labour supply

1.4. Labour demand - supply matching and infrastructure of labour market

1.5. Ensuring social security for disadvantaged groups

1.6. Labour market governance

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• 1.1. Legal framework• The system of legislation has constituted a legal foundation for labour

liberalization. • Legislation system on education and vocational training has been relatively

comprehensive, including the Law on Education (2005), Law on Vocational Training (2006)

• Labour market has become more flexible, meeting better the demands of human resource of various industries in regions nationwide and workers’ demand to employment

• The Government has performed better its role of macro management over labour market with lessened direct intervention to industrial relations

• The government has performed better role: The Law on Social Insurance promulgated in 2006 with unemployment scheme carried out in 2009, the National Targeted Program on Poverty Reduction, Poverty Reduction Plan for 62 Poor Districts, Plan on Manpower Export for Poor Districts…

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• 1.1. Legal frameworkHowever:- It is not comprehensive and unanimous between the economic

development policies and employment - labour market policies; - The economic policies are usual fragmented and lack of orientations

changing economic structure by sectors connecting to the labour demand and mobility;

- They have created no a favourable legal environment for business production activities, encourage the development of private economic sector, push up foreign investment absorbance, etc to stimulate economic development, create more jobs of stable and to form the actual labour cost based on labour market;

- Coverage of labour policies is limited, mainly covered workers with industrial relation in the formal economic sectors.

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• 1.2. Labour demand• 1.2.1. Promoting job creation through economic development

• Between 2001 and 2010, the average GDP growth rate has been 7.26% per year, in which industry sector has the highest growth rate of 9.6% per year, economic structure has continued to shift positively.

• Specifically, Vietnam accessed the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007, expanded traditional markets and developed potential ones.

• However, the economic growth was still widely, the growth mainly based on capital. In the period 2001-2010, the economic growth rate was 7%/year, contribution from capital factor was about 56.2%, from labor factor was 25% and from TFP was approximately 19%.

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• Table 1. Selected macroeconomic variables, 2001 – 2010

Source: General Statistics Office (GSO)

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1.2. Labour demand1.2.2. Changing structure of employment by sector

Graph 1. Employment structure in 2010 by aggregated sector and by area; and gender differences

Sourse: MOLISA, Employment trends 20118


• 1.2. Labour demand

• 1.2.2. Changing structure of employment by sectorTable 2. Rates of growth of GDP and Employment; Employment elasticity

Source: LFS 2007, 2009 and 2010

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• 1.2.3. Rapid enterprise growth, but challenges of skills • The number of enterprise has been increased remarkably during the

recent years. Until 2010, the economic system showed approximately 550,000 registered enterprises, with almost 70,000 businesses created every year between 2006 and 2010.

• Most enterprises are small and medium scale, characterized by low-skilled workers, low technology and poor capital resources (42% of enterprises operating with chartered capital of less than 1 billion VND and 8.9% of enterprises having chartered capital approximately of 5 to 10 billion VND).

• More than half of the enterprises have less than 10 employees and less than 2 per cent enterprises employs more than 200 workers

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1.2. Labour demand1.2.4. Largest share of workers in non state sector Graph 2. Total employment by institutional sector and area; percentage

composition; 2007 and 2010

Source: MOLISA, Employment trends 2011 11


• 1.2. Labour demand• 1.2.5. Program on Credit for job creation from National Fund on

Employment• National Fund for Employment of the National Targeted Program on

Employment was initiated in 1992 with objectives: (i) to provide loans with preferential interest rate for workers to create employment; (ii) to establish job service centers with the aim to support job-seekers to be employed, provide vocational training and study labour market; and (iii) to support education and vocational training. In the period 2000-2010, each year the Fund contributed to creation of jobs for 350,000 workers, of which 40% are the youth, making up 30% of newly created jobs in the economy

• There have remained some constraints: state budget does not reach out to communal level whereas local mobilization for the fund is not remarkable. To date, only 30 provinces and cities have established their employment funds which meet 35- 40% demand of people to get loans from the fund 12


• 1.2. Labour demandOverall, during the period 2001-2010, there are 15.5

million jobs were created aggregately through socio-economic development policies as well as government programs, projects.

Most of the jobs were created in the non-state sector (accounting for 90 per cent) and through socio-economic development programs (accounting for over 70 per cent).

Employment growth rate reaches 2.2 per cent per year on average

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• 1.2. Labour demand• 1.2.6. Labour productivity increasing but still lower than

countries in the region• Table 3. Labour productivity of some Asia countries, constant price 1990 (USD)

• Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database™(2011), http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase 14

CountryLabor productivity (USD) Average growth rate (%)

2001 2005 2006 2010 2001-2005 2006-2010 2001-2010China 5,100 7,710 8,620 12,641 10.9 10.0 10.6Japan 40,383 43,571 44,266 44,512 1.9 0.1 1.1Indonesia 7,780 9,140 9,491 10,474 4.1 2.5 3.4Malaysia 19,171 22,394 23,173 25,175 4.0 2.1 3.1Philippine 6,715 7,319 7,603 8,408 2.2 2.5 2.5Singapore 37,739 48,279 47,473 48,952 6.4 0.8 2.9Korea 33,881 38,324 39,787 44,251 3.1 2.7 3.0Thailand 12,585 14,385 14,936 15,883 3.4 1.5 2.6Vietnam 3,970 4,801 5,054 5,877 4.9 3.8 4.5


• 1.2. Labour demand• 1.2.7. Low employment quality in rural areas

• 72% of rural labours and nearly 90% of urban labours work in agricultural sector with low productivity, which only accounts for two fifth of the average productivity level of the economy and nearly one third of that of the industrial-service sector. Challenges to rural employment have been created by the slow transition in economic and labour structure, together with progressive increase in demographic size, migration process, investment absorption in agricultural sector and rural areas, and risks exposed to the economy during crisis period.

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• 1.2.8. Employment status and informal employment• Graph 3. Employment by status; 2007 and 2010



• 1.2. Labour demand• 1.2.9. Foreigners working in Vietnam

• Currently, it is estimated that approximately of 70.000 foreigners working in Vietnam (50% of whom were granted work permit), mainly labours with higher educational level (48.3%), skilled labours with certificates of vocational training (34.6%) and high-level professional artisans (17.1%), most of them are working as managers (about 32%) and technical experts (41%).

• The statistics on a significant number of foreign manual labours working for foreign winning contractors in Vietnam which has not been available and reported.

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1.3. Labour supply1.3.1. Demographic size

Robust population growth over the last decades continue to put pressure on the labour market. Up to 2010, Vietnam’s population is 87.8 million; mostly living in rural areas (approx. 72%)

Graph 4. Population growth rate in the period 2000-2010 (%)

Source: General Statistics Office (GSO)18


• 1.3. Labour supply• 1.3.2. Increasing labour force participation rates

• Table 4. Labour force participation rate and Employment to population ratio, by sex and area; 2007, 2009 and 2010



• 1.3. Labour supply• 1.3.3. Education and vocational training

• Table 5. Structure of labour force by education level, 2001- 2011

Source: MOLISA, Survey on labor and employment, year 2001, 2005 and 2006; GSO, Report on the survey of labor and employment 2010; *Estimated by ILSSA.

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2001 2005 2006 2010 2011*Estimated

Total 100 100 100 100 100Illiterate 3.6 4.0 3.8 4.3 4.1Under graduate primary school

16.1 13.1 12.0 13.1 12.3

Graduate primary school

30.0 29.1 33.8 27.4 24.8

Graduate lower secondary school

32.7 32.6 26.9 28.3 33.1

Graduate upper secondary school

17.6 21.2 23.5 26.9 25.7


• 1.3. Labour supply• 1.3.3. Education and vocational training

Now, the percentage of skilled workers has reached 40%, with 30% among whom were provided vocational training

• Table 6. Structure of Labors by Professional Skill levels

• Source: MOLISA, Survey on Labor and employment, year 2001, 2005 and 2006; GSO, Report on the survey of Labor and employment 2010; *Estimated by ILSSA.

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2001 2005 2010 2011*estimated

Average growth

rate/yearTotal 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

No professional skill 82.9 74.7 60.0 58.0 -1.01

Technical labors have not through formal trainings

13.3 12.3

Labors have vocational trainings

7.8 15.1 14.7 16.5 10.6

Professional secondary school

4.6 4.7 4.9 5.1 3.6

College, University and above

4.7 5.5 7.0 8.1 8.3


• 1.3. Labour supply• 1.3.4. Labour export

• Table 7. Labor working abroad by gender and destinations, 2001-2011

Source: Administration of Oversea Labor, MOLISA22

Number of labor working abroad (people) Average growth rate (%)

2001 2005 2006 2010 2011 2001-2005

2006-2011

2001-2011

Total 36,168 70,594 78,855 85,546 88,298 18.2 2.3 9.3

Female 7,704 24,605 27,023 24,458 31,990 33.7 3.4 15.3

Taiwan 7,782 22,784 14,127 28,495 38,796 30.8 22.4 17.4

Japan 3,249 2,955 5,360 4,910 6,985 -2.3 5.4 8.0

Korea 3,910 12,102 10,577 8,632 15,214 32.6 7.5 14.6

Malaysia 23 24,605 37,941 11,737 9,977 471.9 -23.4 83.5

Other countries

21,204 8,148 10,850 31,772 17,326 -21.3 9.8 -2.0


• 1.3. Labour supply

• 1.3.5. Labour mobility

• Domestic migration has experienced a significant increase in the last ten years. During the period 1994-2009, 4.5 million moved across provinces and more than 6 million workers migrated within the country

• At present, residence registration procedure still causes discrimination against workers migrated to urban areas. Discrimination could be seen in access to credit opportunity, health care, education for workers and their families

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• 1.3. Labour supply

• 1.3.6. Vocational training by enterprises

• It is due to limitation in training policies for workers of enterprises. Firstly, intensive policy is not attractive enough to involve of enterprises (especially from private sector) in providing vocation training. Secondly, vocational training in schools and training institutions is not matched with actual requirements of businesses.

• The system of linkage between vocational orientation- training, vocational training- employment service- enterprise and employers is not tight and concretized

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1. ASSESSMENT OF PERFORMANCE OF VIETNAM LABOUR MARKET

• 1.4. Labour demand - supply matching and infrastructure of labour market

• 1.4.1. Unemployment and time-related underemployment • Labour supply and demand still show partial imbalances amongst different

areas, sectors and economic branches. Surpluses of low skilled workers are detected together with shortages of specialized and skilled ones, and many enterprises report increasing difficulties in the recruitment process, especially in the industrial and export-processing zones of the South

• Graph 5. Unemployment, 2001-2011

• Source: MOLISA, Survey on Labor and employment, year 2001, 2005 and 2006; GSO, Report on the survey of Labor and employment 2010; 2011 is estimated by ILSSA. 25



• 1.4.2. Career consultation and orientation

• Most of students and parents are not fully aware about the importance of career education.

• The vocational training and career orientation is not practical and not effective, even not developed as official curricular for many schools.

• Schools are lack of infrastructure for conducting the career guidance; lack of support from localities and social organizations.

• 70% of secondary completed students enter into labour market without career orientation and training

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• 1.4.3. Employment Services • During 2001-2005, the Centres have provided counseling

and job placement for over 1.4 million workers. Since 2007, to enhance the labour demand and supply linkage, the Centres have organized regular job bazaars instead of job fairs. At the present, 41 Employment Services Centres have organized job bazaars, in which 35 Centres have held it on a regular basis…

• During 2007-2010, over 1,200 job sessions were held at the job trading floor throughout the country, increasing employment transaction productivity by 15%-20% compared to that of job bazaars and employment open day which were held before

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• 1.4.4. Labour market information • System of the labour market information have not been completed and

connected comprehensively.• Database for the labour market is both deficient and updated

irregularly. Most of the surveys on labour-employment, unemployment and wages are carried annually.

• Employment in the informal sector has not been surveyed, evaluated to develop suitable supportive policies for employees.

• System of key indicators to evaluate the operation of the labour market has been issued but not completed, poor designed, inconsistent and difficult for measure.

• There has not been any accurate evaluation on what the trends, the development process and level of the labour market as well as its gap in comparison with regional and international countries. 28


• 1.5. Ensuring social security for disadvantaged groups• 1.5.1. Social insurance• On average, the number of new social insurance members is

400.000 people every year. Number of compulsory social insurance members by 2010 will be 9.6 millions, accounting for 80% of those who are subject of compulsory insurance.

• However, the coverage of social insurance is still limited; the beneficiaries of social insurance mainly work in state sector and foreign investment sector. Nearly 20% of workers who are subject to participate social insurance, but not yet participated. Many enterprises “evades” to contribute social insurance for workers. Most of workers in the informal sector have no access or they are not fully aware about the need of voluntary social insurance.

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• 1.5. Ensuring social security for disadvantaged groups• 1.5.2. Unemployment insurance

• The Fund for Unemployment Insurance is contributed by employees (1% of wage, income), employers hiring at least 10 workers (1% of the wage, income budget) and 1% subsidy from the State budget. In 2010, there were more than 7.05 million participants of Unemployment Insurance .

• However, only members of compulsory social insurance who contribute to unemployment insurance fund are entitled to this benefit. Currently, some shortcomings in legal framework: (i) regulations on vocational training and job seeking support mechanism after being unemployed are not specified; (ii) there are no sanctions for the violations of no contributions, insufficient contributions; (iii) unemployment insurance policy consists of many support regimes for workers from monthly financial support to support for vocational training and job seeking but it is conducted by different authorities while there is no specific regulation.

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• 1.5. Ensuring social security for disadvantaged groups• 1.5.3. Programs on supporting disadvantageous workers• There are about 13 million people considered as belonging to the

disadvantageous labour force, accounting for 24 percent of the total labour force.

• In which, 4.2 million employees are people with disabilities; 6.5 million employees are the poor; 180 thousand employees are those living with HIV; 190 thousand employees are addicts and prostitutes; 1 million migrant workers and repatriates; about 700 thousand disadvantageous employees getting monthly allowances from the state budget.

• Nearly 80% of disadvantageous employees mainly concentrate on rural areas and most of them have low education level.

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• 1.6. Labour market governance• 1.6.1. Wage and income policiese • The Wage Reform has been implemented: i) salaries and wages to better reflect the

value of labour, ii) to establish wage setting mechanisms aligned to income levels and inflation

• Table 8. Average wage/month by occupations, 2002-2010

Source: ILSSA calculated from VHLSS, GSO.

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OccupationsAverage wage/month/person (VND 000) Average growth rate (%)

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2002 -2006

2006 -2010

2002 -2010

Total 791 806 1,042 1,552 2,691 7.1 26.8 16.5

Managers/high level of professional skill 1,163 1,255 1,536 2,433 4,135 7.2 28.1 17.2

Mid-level of professional skill 1,114 1,278 1,427 2,161 3,307 6.4 23.4 14.6

Staffs 804 948 1,004 1,443 2,788 5.7 29.1 16.8

Technical workers 758 820 1,061 1,532 2,633 8.8 25.5 16.8

Unskilled labors 538 639 718 1,012 1,587 7.5 21.9 14.5

Gap between manager and unskilled labors (times) 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.6


• 1.6. Labour market governance• 1.6.2. Strikes and industrial relations

• Labour strikes tend to increase sharply by the time of economic crises (2008-2009). In 2008, there were 720 labour strikes nationwide, 4.7 and 10 times higher than those in 2005 and 2000 respectively. The strikes took place mainly the FDI enterprises (accounting for 54% and 81% of the total strikes in 2005 and 2008 respectively). Labour disputes were mainly about wages and they were not settled down with negotiations between workers and employers but directly caused strikes, which led to an increase in labour strikes. The strikes also happened mainly in the cities in key economic zones in the South and in the enterprises using a large number of workers, especially in garment and textile ones .

• However, labour strikes were spontaneous and illegal under legislations. Therefore, industrial relations are more complicated, unstable, and unhealthy and they negatively affect the investing environment in Vietnam.

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• 1.6. Labour market governance • 1.6.3. Capacity of staff and monitoring and evaluation

• The role of state as the market governance is weak, fragmented, lack of coordination (vertical and horizontal); the provincial policies on labour market development is are not effectively implemented, mainly rely on the budget from state.

• At present, Vietnam is lack of mechanism, tools and resource for monitoring and evaluation of labour market.

• The trend of labour supply and demands have not monitored, the urgent problems of market (labour dispute and strike, lack of qualified workers, migration from rural areas..) have not been reported.

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2. OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES OF VIETNAM LABOUR MARKET UNTIL 2020

• 2.1. Opportunities• The trend in FDI has paid more attention in developing countries, among which

are those in Asia-Pacific region.

• In the future, ASEAN will be an area of dynamic economic development in addition to the investment trend of China moving towards ASEAN countries.

• 10 years of Socio-Economic Development Strategy 2001-2010 have positively placed to the country to a higher position and power.

• The economic restructuring, the development and expansion of external economic relations to create more jobs with an increasing demand of skilled workers.

• The system of legal policy and documents is being accomplished towards meeting regional and international standards.

• Demographic trends pose both opportunities and threats. Vietnam is in the phase of the demographic transition to the golden population structure where the generational entries in to the market still offsets the total exits .

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2. OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES OF VIETNAM LABOUR MARKET UNTIL 2020

• 2.2. Challenges• 2.2.1. Improving the quality of labour• During the period 2001-2010, Vietnam’s economic growth was largely

contributed by investment, with it’s investment growth significantly higher than GDP growth, together with low contribution of labour market and low gross productivity.

• 2.2.2. Raising productive employment opportunities in rural areas • As a result of lack of the education and skills, most rural workers remain

trapped in low skill rural activities. The use of family labour and the lack of social protection measures during the economic crisis shows that most workers in rural are reported as ‘employed’, but returns from such employment is low

• 2.2.3. Promoting the movement from informality to formality• Labour productivity and working conditions improve in the informal

segments, and incentives for moving into formality are well in place.

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2. OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES OF VIETNAM LABOUR MARKET ULTILL 2020

• 2.2. Challenges• 2.2.4. Raising labour productivity • Requiring appropriately balancing knowledge-intensive and labour-

intensive production, on the one hand, growth model in depth requires the deployment of advanced science and technology, highly-qualified human resources and modern management skills, and, on the other hand

• 2.2.5. WTO accession and to balance between external-domestic demand

• Too much reliance on the export led model of growth has limitations, and while promoting exports, Vietnam would also need to promote measures to raise domestic demand

• 2.2.6. Special attention to employment needs of vulnerable groups, such as women and youth, as well as disadvantaged groups

• The priority for specific groups such as youth, women, workers with disability, ethnic groups, therefore, becomes more important.

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2. OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES OF VIETNAM LABOUR MARKET ULTILL 2020

• 2.2. Challenges• 2.2.7. “Green jobs” for development and environmental sustainability • The long-term transformations will entail transitions towards “green

jobs” and greener enterprises.• 2.2.8. Balanced regional development through local economic

development

• Focus on the economic potentials of the communes, districts, provinces and region and on building up its competitive advantages; with a focus on economic growth, employment generation and enterprise development and a wide range of initiatives.

• 2.2.9. Promoting safe migration

• It takes into account the impact of emigration on the labour market so as not to distort labour supply and become a bottleneck for the country’s own development.

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3. ORIENTATIONS, OBJECTIVES AND SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING THE LABOUR MARKET 2011-2020

• 3.1. Orientations• By creating and facilitating decent job creation as one of the key

objectives of socio-economic policies.

• Making the most of Vietnam’s HR increasing labour productivity and the linkages between productivity, wages and income.

• Reducing gender disparities in the labour market.

• Promoting human capital and decent jobs for young Vietnamese to support the development of the country.

• Limiting the possible rise in unemployment and growth of low-productive employment which often in process to urbanization.

• Increasing the participation of the social partners, SMEs and labour in formulating and implementing employment policies.

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• 3.2. Objective• 3.2.1. The main goal: is to promote decent work for all women and men,

and young people, provide better living standards, reduce poverty and maintain social stability.

• 3.2.2. Specific objectives

• Objective to increase quality of employment for Vietnamese women and men

• The share of educated workers to be increased up to 55 per cent in 2015 (in which, vocational trained workers account for 40 per cent) and up to 77 per cent in 2020 (vocational trained workers account for over 55 per cent);

• Percentage of young people aged 15-24 not in employment, not in education and not in training decreased to at least 5 per cent of total youth for both young women and young men;

• Share of young people aged 15-24 in education and training increased to at least 50 per cent of total youth for both for women and for men. 40


• Objective to create more jobs

• Create about 1.6 million of job annually, among which at least about 600,000 jobs for young people;

• Increase employment growth rate to approximately 2% per year ;

• Increase growth rate of empl. in non-agricultural to 4%-5% per year

• Objective to ensure improved quality of employment

• Informal workers in non-agriculture reduced to 50% of empl. 2020;

• Productivity increased by 4.0% per year between 2011 and 2020;

• The share of employment in agriculture to be reduced to 40% of total employment in 2015 and 30% of total employment in 2020;

• Real wage growth increased by 5 per cent per year on average;

• Increased share of labour having industrial relation to 65% in 2020.

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• 3.3. Strategic Solutions• Improve employment legislations and institutions

- Improve employment legislations

- Reform the labour market with the focus on a secured and flexible

• Pro-employment social and economic policies promote productive employment

- Stablize macroeconomy and trade

- Aimed at modernizing the economy and promoting productive work for all

- Fiscal and monetary policies to ensure pro growth and pro employment focus

- Streamline “green jobs” during labour market and economic transformations

- Policies oriented to promote international integration

- Policies to support enterprises

- Policies promoting local socio-economic development42


• Improve human resource quality to meet labour market requirements

- Compulsory education policies for all workers

- Education and training policy for labour market adjusted to address specific challenges of Vietnamese young people in the transition from learning to work.

- Reform the VET policies and programmes to achieve stronger linkages between education, training and labour market requirements

- VET programmes are designed according to sound and timely LMI.

- Training through both direct provision and contracting systems

- Establish skills boards at sectoral and provincial levels

- Increase coverage and quality of general and vocational secondary programmes to make labour market training more effective

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- Improve quality and diversified (range of) higher education programmes support the transition to a knowledge based society

- Policies improved to create the ground for jobs requiring high skills

• Support the linkage between labour demand and supply

-. Enhance the capacity of ESC toward modernization, responding to the requirements

- Develop a labour market information system

- It is adapted to cater for specific vulnerabilities and needs of migrant workers

• Support and ensure labour market inclusion

- The extension of coverage of the social protection system to both enhance the sustainability of public finance and decrease vulnerabilities

- Labour market policies are linked to recipients of social protection measures

- Basic health, education and other social protection services and income support programmes to increase productivity and access to decent work

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- Improve the effectiveness and coverage of social insurance programs

- Promote opportunities to access to social security and training for workers in informal

• Improve capacity of governing labour market

- Improve the wage system based on the tripatite mechanism

- Formulating “soft institutions” to be in association with capacity building of the actors in the labour market and developing social dialogue mechanism and healthy industrial relation.

- Enhance the capacity of government agencies and social partners in planning and implementation of employment policies and legislations.

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Thank you very much!

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THE VIETNAMESE LABOUR MARKET’S DEVELOPMENT UNTIL 2020: CHALLENGES, CHANCES AND PERSPECTIVES Ass....

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