The Valuation of Distressed Businesses - TMA Valuation of... · The Valuation of Distressed...
Transcript of The Valuation of Distressed Businesses - TMA Valuation of... · The Valuation of Distressed...
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The Valuation of
Distressed Businesses
Establishing a Framework and
Avoiding Pitfalls
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The Valuation of
Distressed Businesses
Moderator: Grant W. Newton
Panelists: Teri L. Stratton
Paul N. Shields
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Key Points to Establishing a Framework and
Avoiding Pitfalls
• Proper assessment of the turnaround thesis viability and
cash flow projections
• Proper consideration of the capital structure
• Proper development of an appropriate discount rate
• Proper development of market multiples
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Can the Company be Reorganized?
• Viability of turnaround thesis
• Management team execution capability
• Build up of projections consistent with turnaround thesis
– Reasonableness, conservatism, milestones
• Adequate liquidity through reorganization
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Determinants of Capital Structure and Ability
to Reorganize
• Trade off between interest tax shields and the cost of
financial distress
• The pecking order of financing choices
• The benefits and costs of financial slack
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Factors that May Impact the Costs of Financial
Distress, and a Company’s Ability to Reorganize
• Level of operating profits
• Company size
• Nature of assets
• Complexity of capital structure and make up of creditors
• Impact of economic cycles
• Length of revenue cycle
• Average product/service transaction size
• Quality and timeliness of financial reporting
• Leadership and human capital
• Labor relations
• Asset specificity
• Supplier concentration
• Quantity (number and dollar amount) of executory contracts
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Tax Considerations• Net operating losses
– Age of net operating losses
– Potential restrictions on utilization of net operating losses• IRC Section 382
• Built in gains/losses
• Special bankruptcy exceptions
• Cancellation of debt (COD) income– Tax attribute reduction
– Taxation of COD income
• Tax basis and holding period– Transaction type
• Character of income– Asset type
• Other tax consequences of debt restructuring and asset foreclosures– Original issue discount (OID)
– Recourse vs. nonrecourse debt
• Consolidated corporate group issues
• Value of tax shields implicit in the weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
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Capital Structure for Valuation
• Using different capital structures of debt and equity can
affect valuation
• Options:
– Actual or anticipated at close of transaction
– Industry average
– Theoretical or optimal
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Determining Theoretical Capital Structure
• Debt capacity analysis
• Theoretical bond ratings analysis
• Comparable company analysis
• Triangulate appropriate theoretical capital structure
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Discount Rates
• Cost of equity
– Modified CAPM
– Duff & Phelps
– Fama & French Three Factor Model
– Consideration of company specific risk
• Cost of debt
– Bond rating and yield to maturity
• Weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
– Value of tax shields implicit in WACC
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Comparable Company Multiple Analysis
• Multiples largely move up and down with the economic
cycle
• Also driven by availability of capital, therefore, consistent
with trends of leverage multiples
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Distressed vs. Healthy Valuation Multiples
Note: Data points are based on the median; Data for 2008 and 2013 was unavailable
0.0x
4.3x
1.3x
2.5x
5.8x
0.0x
6.8x
8.0x7.7x
7.4x 7.4x
8.7x
12.9x
8.2x
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Lev
erage
Rati
os
Tra
nsa
ctio
n M
ult
iple
s
Distressed Deal Multiples (Restaurants)
Non-Distressed Deal Multiples (Restaurants)
Leverage Ratios (Restaurants)
Leverage Ratios (Industry-Wide)