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The utility of long-term reconstructions with regional climate models Hans von Storch, Frauke Feser,...
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![Page 1: The utility of long-term reconstructions with regional climate models Hans von Storch, Frauke Feser, Ralf Weisse and Lars Bärring The Third Workshop on.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062500/56649c6d5503460f9491ea84/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The utility of long-term reconstructions with
regional climate models
Hans von Storch, Frauke Feser, Ralf Weisse and Lars
Bärring
The Third Workshop on Regional Climate Modeling for Monsoon System (RCM)17-21 February 2004, East-West Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu,
![Page 2: The utility of long-term reconstructions with regional climate models Hans von Storch, Frauke Feser, Ralf Weisse and Lars Bärring The Third Workshop on.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062500/56649c6d5503460f9491ea84/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The purpose of regional models is not to validate and improve them by making them more complex but to apply them in building of new knowledge about the real world.
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Long term reconstruction
• Use of model SN-REMO (REMO + spectral nudging operating on wind above 850 hPa) – details, recall Feser‘s talk
• Forcing with NCEP re-analyses 1958-2002
• Gridding: 50 km• Time step stored: 1 hourly• Area: Europe• Data freely available
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Quality of reconstruction
• Is difficult to assess since specific high-resolution analyses hardly exist.
• Comparison with local data always questionable.
• Use of „integrating“ variables such as storm surges and wave heights yield favorable results.
• Wind data likely of high quality over sea – not over land.
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Marcos Garcia Sotilla, 2003
Assimilated into NCEP(Atlantic)
Not assimilated into NCEP (Ionic Sea)
Wind speed at two bouys
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20-year return values of wind speed, * based on daily 1992-97 data (color codes)
Southern North Sea
Extreme wind speeds
* plus from station data in NL (numbers in black)
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Insa
Mei
nke,
per
s. c
omm
.
Accuracy of ISCCP estimates: about 10%
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Applications
1. Assessment of changing storminess 2. Storm surges 3. Ocean wave conditions 4. Long-range pollution –
examples: gasoline lead and benzapyren
5. Commercial applications – Wind energy planning and shipbuilding
6. Emergency planning – risk of coastal oil spills
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Stormcount 1958-2001
Weis
se , p
ers
. co
mm
.
C/year
t t
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High tides in Helgoland (SE North Sea) in January 1995
Try
gve A
spelie
n, G
KSS
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Ess
elb
orn
, pers
. co
mm
.
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The Helgoland case of wave conditions in Oct 1998
Buoy at 54o 9’ N, 7o 52’ E, depth 22m(data available 1.10.1998 – 20.10 1998, every 3 hours)
Radar (WAMOS) 54º10’N, 7º53’E, depth 7m(data available 9.10.1998-31.10.1998)
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Model output vs radar and buoy measurements
Lid
ia G
asl
ikova,
pers
. co
mm
.
Significant wave height
Wave mean direction (coming from)
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Comparison of significant wave height from ERS (Meteomer) and HIPOCAS hindcast for the Southern North Sea for 1993.
Comparison with Satellite Data
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Ocean wave height
reconstruction Solid: HIPOCAS RCM/NCEP reconstruction
Dashed: WASA/DNMI SLP reconstruction
Red: Local observations
50%, 90%, 95% and 99%iles.
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Estimatedlead emissions(from Pacyna and Pacyna, 2000)
1955
19951955
1975
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deposition
Calculated depositions
1995
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model estimate
Estimated lead depositions into the Baltic Sea, compared to analyses based on observational evidence
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
time [a]
lead
lo
ad [
t a
-1]
lead loads at Schnackenburg/D
simulated lead loads river Elbe
Estimated transport in the Elbe river
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Further Applications• Assessment of oil drifts in case of coastal accidents
• Assessment of fatigue in ships and off-shore constructions (with FGS Flensburg)
• Planning of harbor constructions (Jade Port)
• Planning of off-shore wind energy (commercial)
• Assessment of coastal defense measures (ALR)
• Wave conditions in the Elbe estuary.
Ulrich Callies, GKSS
source
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Conclusions
• Regional models can be used to reconstruct detailed weather in the past decades by downscaling global re-analyses.
• In particular information about marine wind can be used for assessing past developments and contemporary risk assessments.
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Mean monthly
precipitation [mm/month]
for 1999.
REMO
Frauke F
ese
r, p
ers
. co
mm
.
NCEP
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