The use of networks in the study of climate-related

vulnerabilitiesMarco Pautasso,

Division of Biology, Imperial College London,

Silwood Park

PIK Potsdam, 2 August 2010

DiseaseBiodiversity x

Review

Researchy Empirical

Theoreticalz

(a), (b) & (c) from: Pautasso & Gaston (2006) Global Ecology & Biogeography;(d) from: Pautasso & Gaston (2005) Ecology Letters

Research interests - 1. Macroecology

Survey year

Log 10

plot

are

a (k

m2 )

Log 1

0as

sem

blag

e ab

unda

nce

(indi

vidu

als)(c)

Log10 plot area (km2)

Research interests - 2. Landscape pathology

Picture: D. Rizzo, UC Davis Pautasso et al. (2010) Biological Reviews

NATURAL

TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL

food webs

airport networks

cell metabolism

neural networks

railway networks

ant nests

WWWInternet

electrical power grids

software mapscomputing

gridsE-mail

patterns

innovation flows

telephone calls

co-authorship nets

family networks

committees

sexual partnerships DISEASE

SPREAD

Food web of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin, US

Internet structure

Network pictures from: Newman (2003) SIAM Review

HIV spread

network

Research interests - 3. Network epidemiology

urban road networks

Modified from: Jeger et al. (2007) New Phytologist

Current research – 1. epidemic modellingin small-size directed networks

N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means

at p < 0.05

from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) Journal of Theoretical Biology

Current research -2. fire blight epidemic development in Switzerland

From: Eidgenössisches Volkswirtschaftsdepartement, Swiss Confederation

2003 2007

199919952003-07

b from: http://www.worldmapper.org/

a, c & d: from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica

(c)

(d)

(a)(c)

log 1

0sp

pri

chne

ss (n

)

(b) Size of countries reflects n of botanic gardens

Current research – 3. biogeography of the living collections of the world’s botanical gardens

(d)

(yr)

Acknowledgements

Ottmar Holdenrieder,

ETHZ, CH

Mike Jeger, Imperial College,

Silwood

Mike Shaw, Univ. of Reading

Kevin Gaston, Univ. of

Sheffield

Mathieu Moslonka-Lefebvre,

Agro-Paris Tech, France

Joan Webber, Forest Research

Peter Weisberg, Univ. of Nevada,

Reno, USA

Mike McKinney, Univ. of Tennessee, USA

Ingrid Parmentier, Univ. of Brussels,

Belgium

US counties with (•) or without (o) Universities and/or Botanical Gardens

from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology

• N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001

o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001

European trade flows in ornamental plants (2004)

Dehnen-Schmutz et al. (2010) Scientia Horticulturae

step 1

step 2

step 3

step n

…

Simple model of infection spread (e.g. P. ramorum) in a network

pt probability of infection transmission

pp probability of infection persistence

… 100node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (in review) Phytopathology

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

probability of transmission

prob

abili

ty o

f per

sist

ence

localrandomsmall-worldscale-free (two-way)scale-free (uncorrelated)scale-free (one way)

Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks with positive correlation between in- and out-degree

modified from: Pautasso & Jeger (2008) Ecological Complexity

Epidemic does not develop Epidemic develops

from: Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany

Living collections of the world’s botanic gardens (2)

ReferencesDehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultural industry: some implications for plant health. Scientia Horticulturae 125: 1-15Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richness patterns of the living collections of the world's botanic gardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105: 689-696Harwood TD, Xu XM, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Shaw M (2009) Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and P. kernoviae in the UK. Ecological Modelling 220: 3353-3361 MacLeod A, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Haines-Young R (2010) Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests and challenges for future plant health. Food Security 2: 49-70 Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O & Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries and continents. Phytopathology 101: 392-403Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189Pautasso M, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Pietravalle S, Salama N, Jeger MJ, Lange E & Hehl-Lange S (2010) Plant health and global change – some implications for landscape management. Biological Reviews 85: 729-755Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor of epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432 Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-size directed trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309Xu XM, Harwood TD, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales. Ecography 32: 504-516