The Use of Models in Emergency Management
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Transcript of The Use of Models in Emergency Management
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The Use of Models in The Use of Models in Emergency Emergency
ManagementManagement
Presented By:Presented By:Armond T. MascelliArmond T. MascelliVice President, OperationsVice President, OperationsDisaster ServicesDisaster Services
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Mission of the American Red Cross
‘The American Red Cross, a humanitarian organization led by volunteers and guided by its Congressional Charter and the Fundamental Principles of the International Red Cross Movement, will provide relief to victims of disasters and help people prevent, prepare for, and respond to emergencies.’
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International Red Cross Movement
I. International Committee of the Red Cross
- Geneva Conventions
II. Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
- Disaster Response
III. National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
- 180 Societies
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Principles of the
International Red Cross
Movement
Humanity Assistance
Impartiality No discrimination
Neutrality Non-partisan
Independence Autonomy
Volunteer Service No gain
Unity One Society per Country
Universality Equal Status of all Societies
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American Red Cross
1+ Million Volunteers & 35,000 Paid Staff Chapters – 707 Divisions – 10 Services to the Armed Forces Units – 100 Blood Regions – 35 Partnerships – Government and Non-Governmental
Organizations
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Primary Lines of Service
Biomedical Services Service to the Armed Forces Health & Safety Services International Services Disaster Services
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Disaster ServicesWhen Disasters Occur- Feeding, sheltering Distribution of emergency supplies One-on-one casework/assistance Health Services Mental Health Services Family Connectedness Blood and blood products Recovery and capacity building
All Red Cross Disaster Assistance is Free!
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Disaster Services Business Plan Goals Goal 1: Deliver service effectively and efficiently
Reduce service delivery costs while enhancing constituent satisfaction.
Goal 2: Make chapters stronger
Align national, state, and local resources to strengthen chapter programs.
Goal 3: Partner effectively and lead the sector
Expand our role in disaster relief as a principle convener of agencies and communities nationally and locally.
Goal 4: Make the Red Cross the best place to work or volunteer
Attract and retain the highest caliber of disaster expertise.
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Distributing SuppliesFlorida Tornadoes
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Health ServicesNew Jersey Floods
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Disaster Mental HealthNew Jersey Floods
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ShelteringOhio Floods
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Mobile FeedingOhio Floods
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Family ConnectednessRegistration Page
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PartnershipsPartnerships
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Disasters are Physical, Political and Emotional Events
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Disasters are complex events that require focused actions
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The Term Disaster is a collective noun covering a range of
very different events
- Emergency
- Disaster
- Complex Disaster
- Catastrophic Event
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Disasters are complex, dynamic events
- The limitations of training and exercises
Future repeat disasters are not the recurrence of past events
- New Disaster Agents
- Shifting risk profile (US Coastline)
- Demographics
- Major and catastrophic events
Hurricane Hugo (1989)
Hurricane Andrew (1992)
Hurricane George (1999)
Hurricane Katrina (2004)
Hurricane Rita (2007)
- 1918 Flu vs 2009 Flu Pandemic
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- Ongoing linkage between risk
assessment and risk management
- The Roman God Janis
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Emergency Management Models
- Prediction Models
- Process Models
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The Application of Expert Systems to Emergency
Management
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In Disaster Response there are
a lot of variables and they tend
to vary a lot
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Prediction Models
- Agent characteristics and behavior
- Scope and magnitude
- Onset
- Impact/vulnerabilities
- Duration
Natural Disasters
Hazardous Materials
Industrial Accidents
Acts of Terrorism
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Process Models
I. Simplify complex events
- Critical Elements
- Background noise
II. Better understand how an event will evolve
- Anticipate changing requirements
III. Essential for quantifying disaster events
- Performance
IV. Establish a common base for understanding
V. Useful in explaining future disasters and outcomes
to non-experts
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Sequence Process ModelsBasic
- Pre-Event
- Disaster
- Post Disaster
Phases of Stages
[Prevention]
Preparedness
[Readiness]
Response
Recovery
Mitigation
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Internal Function Process Models
FunctionsInitiation/mobilization
Integration
Production
Demobilization
Focus
Capability
Capacity
Decision Points
Manpower, materials, equipment, expertise, timeliness
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Models & Emergency Management Tools
I. Hazardous Materials Dispersion
- Plant and Transportation accidents
- Nuclear Power Plant incidents 10 mile EPZ
II. N1H1 Pandemic
Hurricane Evacuation Models
- National Hurricane Center’s 5 movement models
- Area evacuation Models
- Behavior
- Transportation & Clearance
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Models & Emergency Management Tools (Con’t)
III. Hazus
- Earthquake
- Hurricane
- Flood
IV. Homeland Security
15 Planning Scenarios
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The Future
New/enhanced Disaster Agents Larger events Global urbanization Reliance on technology Media Rising expectations Just in time economy