The use of deliberative scenarios for WES appraisal and ... · landscape, local identity and...
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Assessing and predicting effects on water quantity and quality in Iberian rivers caused by global change
Francesc La‐Roca , Graciela Ferrer and Joserra Diez
http://www.idaea.csic.es/scarceconsolider
The use of deliberative scenarios for WES
appraisal and identification of measures in two
Mediterranean case studies
Provisioning
Water for food cropsWater for livestock Water for energy productionFish (food)Water for transportWater for drinking & domestic purposesWater for wood and fuels production Water for industrial crops Water for other economic activities (industry, tourism, etc.)
Regulation
Climate regulacionHydrological regimesSelf‐purificationSoil & sediment dynamicsProtection against extreme climate events
Ecosystem integrity maintenanceGenetic heritage maintenance Habitat
Aesthetic pleasureRecreational usesInspiration & spiritualityHealth & psicological benefitsEducational & scientific
Cultural/Aesthetic
Action and
choice freedo
m
HUMAN WELLBEINGSecurity
Material bas
e for a
good life
Good social
relationships
AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS
WES: Water ecosystem’s contribution to human wellbeing
Adapted from MEA (2005) & TEEB (2010)
How global change might affect WES?
• Two case studies: Noguera de Tor & Anoia sub‐RB
• Horizon 2050: Deliberative scenarios
2012
-201
3
Two case studiesNoguera de Tor river basinSmall mountain sub‐RB (312 km2 / 1800‐850 mosl) West Catalan Pyrenees – Ebro RB
Noguera de Tor stream (30 km / 244 hm3/y)
Low population density
Hydropower production & residential/familiar tourism (snow & active sport, natural amenities, historical heritage)
National Park “Aigüestortes i Llac de Sant Maurici”
Water ecosystems in good status (although hydromorphological alterations)
Two case studiesAnoia river basinMedium sub‐RB (930 km2 / 700‐56 mosl) Catalan Central Depresion ‐Prelitoral mountain – Llobregat RB
Anoia stream (65 km / 60 hm3/y) / Carme‐Capellades aquifer
Population concentrates in middle sized cities close to the Anoia river
Industry (paper, tanneries, textile, automotive) and services, non irrigated agriculture, livestock, urban sprawl
Water ecosystems and groundwater in worse than good status
Barcelona’s Metropolitan Area
MEDITERRANEAN SEA
Perceived trade‐offs among WESNoguera de Tor
High intensity of use of WES Provision of water for energy production generates deterioration in:
– Hydrological regime.
– Maintenance of ecosystem integrity.
– Recreational and aesthetic WES.
– Provisioning of water for livestock farming.
These WES are relevant for local population so are fundamental for landscape, local identity and touristic attractiveness –the main source of local income.
Anoia river basinOveruse of WES Provision of water for drinking & domestic purposes, water for industrial uses, and self‐purification generates deterioration in:
– Hydrological regime.
– Self‐purification.
– Habitat WES.
– Recreational and aesthetic WES.
– Provisioning WES (water imports ATLL).
Artificial occupations of fluvial space deteriorates:
– Protection against floods.
– Soil & sediment dynamics.
– Hydrological regime.
– Habitat WES.
Perceived vulnerability against CC
Noguera de TorMost vulnerable uses: Traditional ranching & snow tourism
Hydropower production highly resilient: efficiency gains and negotiation capacity
New uses: new climatically adapted crops & summer tourism
WES: increased pressure on Provisioning & Regulation WES
– Growing conflicts among Water for energy production and competing provisioning WES
Anoia river basinMost vulnerable uses: non‐irrigated agriculture, small irrigated gardens, industrial uses & livestock farming
Drinking & domestic uses highly resilient: institutional supply priority
WES: increased pressure on Provisioning, Regulation & Habitat WES
– Increased external dependence for water provisioning
CLIMATE CHANGE EXPECTED EFFECTS IN RBs (2050)*: ▲Temp / ▼Precipitation / ▲ Evapotranspiration / ▲ Torrential rains / ▼ Snow days / ▼ Water resources / ▲▼ Fluvial metabolism (▼ Self-purification & ▼ Biodiversity support)
* Barrera‐Escoda & Cunillera (2011); ACA (2009)
Most important WES for the future (Horizon 2050)
- CLIMATE CHANGE EXPECTED EFFECTS IN RBs - TWO ALTERNATIVE CONTEXTUAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS
Core ideas
Tech‐optimism & economic compensability
Ecosystems fragility & irreversibility Limited tech alternatives
Individualism Sense of community
Economic growth first Economic growth limited by
environmental & social conditionsSociety’s primary goal
Economic competitiveness Life quality
Public sector Low intervention, market disturbanceIntegration of environmental & social concerns in economic
policy; intervention in economy
Natural resource management
Profitability & Economic efficiency Environmental, social & economic efficiency
International trade Internationalisation & Deregulation Proximity markets & Regulation (fair trade)
Economic structure Growing territorial specialization Economic diversity; innovation & traditional sectors
Human settlements Urban, linked to economic activity Urban, rural world is socially valued
Technology & Innovation
New market products & servicesIncrease market products & services ecoefficiency; development of social & environmental applications
Decision making Technocratic style, low PP, low decentralisation Participative style, diverse levels of decentralisation
Environmental Policy Reactive Proactive
ECONOMIC COMPETENCE SOCIOENVIRONMENTAL INTEGRATION
Perceived most important WES for the future local wellbeing
Noguera de Tor
Provisioning WES:
•Water for livestock farming
•Water for other economic act.
Cultural & Aesthetic WES:
•Recreational services•Educational & scientific services
Anoia river basin
Provisioning WES:
•Water for drinking & domestic purposes
Regulation WES:
•Hydrological regime
•Self‐purificationHabitat WES:
•Maintenance of ecosystem integrity
Hydrological regime & Maintenance Hydrological regime & Maintenance of ecosystem integrity of ecosystem integrity ≡≡ STRATEGIC WESSTRATEGIC WES
What to do for conserving identified relevant WES to 2050?
Noguera de Tor
Action lines:
A.Political coordination (River contract)
B.Land planning integration
C.Water use rationalization
D.Economic instruments
E.Knowledge & education
Anoia river basin
Action lines:
A.Water use rationalization
B.Land & urban planning integration
C.Economic instruments
D.Transparency & knowledge
E.Pollution prevention
F.Ecological restoration
What to do for conserving identified relevant WES to 2050?
Noguera de Tor: participant’s proposed measuresMeasures (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)Voluntary agreement for WES protection ‐ + + + + + +Land use limitations ‐ ‐ ‐ + + + +Ecosystems connectivity ‐ ‐ + + + +Review of water use rights ‐ + + + +Ecological flows ‐ ‐ ‐ + + + +Payment for water provision for hydropower generation
‐ + + +
Payment for self‐purification and provision of good quality water + +
Payment for recreational uses of protected areas ‐ + +Research on impacts of global change on biodiversity
+ + + +
Knowledge transfer + + + + + +Environmental education + +
(1) Water for hydropower generation; (2) Water for livestock farming; (3) Water for other economic activities (tourism); (4) Recreational services; (5) Educational and scientific services; (6) Hydrological regime; (7) Maintenance of ecosystem integrity.
What to do for conserving identified relevant WES to 2050?
Anoia: participant’s proposed measuresMeasures (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Use of regenerated wastewater + + + +Implementation of ecological flows - - + + + +Use of regenerated wastewater for ecological flows + + +Water saving + + + + +Water imports + +Water efficient buildings + + + +Protection of groundwater recharge zones + + + + +Stricter regulation of pollutants releases + + + + +Repercussion of water provision full cost to users + +Payment for protecting water sources + + + +Transparency and knowledge + + + +Ecological restoration + + +
(1) Water for drinking & domestic purposes; (2) Water for industrial uses; (3) Recreational services; (4) Self‐purification; (5) Hydrological regime; (6) Maintenance of ecosystem integrity.
Conclusions• WES identification helps lay people mapping of human‐
ecosystem evolving relationship: interdependence of use of WES and ecological processes & functions.
• Provisioning & cultural/aesthetic WES directly connected to human wellbeing; however, their dependence on regulation & habitat WES was made evident: participant’s proposed measures to WES conservation
• WES approach is promising to communicate and get social support to measures addressed to achievement of environmental goals in water management (WFD’s goals)
• Distributional issues (territorial & temporal asymmetry) is a key issue for WES management and design of economic/legal instruments.
Conclusions• Deliberative scenarios allowed participants’ creative and
strategic thinking under high uncertainty conditions.
• Participatory techniques give the opportunity for collective learning and shared reflection.
• However, participatory exercises are time consuming for promoters & participants.
• Low participation is a problem: lack of connection to decision making demotivated economic & political actors. Environmental bias in attendance. Loss of discursive inclusiveness.
Assessing and predicting effects on water quantity and quality in Iberian rivers caused by global change
Thank you for your attention!
The use of deliberative scenarios for WES appraisal and identification of measures in two Mediterranean case studies
http://www.idaea.csic.es/scarceconsolider
Francesc La‐Roca , Graciela Ferrer and Joserra Diez