The U.S. – Global PictureFor Oil and Natural Gas

GEOL 4233 August, 2011

The Global Outlook(Oil)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/US_Oil_Production_and_Imports_1920_to_2005.png

Non - OPEC OPEC

Map of world regions showing OPEC member states.

A Silver Lining ?

The ‘Developing’ World

The ‘Developing’ World

‘Peak Oil’

Depletion is Universal

Oklahoma Cumulative Oil* Production vs Field Size

>10 MMBO

< 10 MMBO

(163 Fields)

(> 2000 Fields)

12.1 BBO

2.4 BBO

From International Oil Scouts Association

* -Including Condensate through 1/2000

40

30

20

10

01850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

Bill

ion

s o

f B

BL

S p

er

yea

r

2.1 TBO Ultimate Recovery

1.8 TBO Ultimate Recovery

World oil production through 2000 (heavy dots) showing projected production through 2050 (dashed lines)for two possible ultimate recoveries. From Deffeyes (2001).

U.S. Crude Oil Production(From E.I.A.)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

1949

1952

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

Thou

sand

Bar

rels

Alaska

Lower 48

The Global Outlook(Natural Gas)

Total 2010 Consumption - 106.8 TCF

Bontang LNG Facility (East Kalimantan, Indonesia)

L.N.G.

The Energy Future

http://www.eia.gov/renewable/annual/preliminary/

Into the Future

•Coal

• Oil• Tar Sands• Oil Shales• Enhanced Recovery

• Natural Gas• Gas Shales• Tight Gas (Sandstones)• CBM (Coalbed Methane)• LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas)• GTL (Gas To Liquids)• Hydrates

• Technology• Horizontal / Deep Water Drilling• Improved Seismic Imaging• Enhanced Recovery Techniques

Fossil-Fuels

Non-Fossil Fuels

• Wood, Etc

• Nuclear

• Hydroelectricity

• Biofuels

• Solar

• Wind • Future Technologies

Conclusions

1) Oil and gas will continue to dominate energy consumption.

2) U.S. energy dependence (interdependence) will increase.

3) Higher prices and volatility will remain the norm.

4) World oil productive capacity is at or near its peak (plateau).

5) Natural gas demand will rise, with shale-gas & LNG satisfying an increasing share.

Acknowledgements

IHS Energy Group

U.S. Department of Energy (E.I.A.)

Oklahoma Corporation Commission

Oklahoma Tax Commission

International Oil Scouts Association

Oil and Gas Journal