The Over-the-Counter Theory of the Fed Funds Market: A Primer
The US Economy /2015 Index Charts, Fed Funds Rate, Oil Real Estate.
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Transcript of The US Economy /2015 Index Charts, Fed Funds Rate, Oil Real Estate.
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The US Economy /2015
Index Charts, Fed Funds Rate, Oil
Real Estate
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US Stock Markets
Historic Charts
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• Past tech revolutions led to stock market bubbles• To maintain current share values would require 4% growth AND a rising
share of profits contributing to GDP in the future (unlikely)Shiller, Robert J. (2000) Irrational Exuberance (Hardcover) Princeton University Press (March 15, 2000) ISBN-13: 978-0691050621
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Jeffry A. Timmons (1994) New Venture Creation: Entrepreneurship for the 21st Century. Irwin. ISBN 0256115486
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S&P 500 September 2008 to July 2009 – the crash!
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DJIA 1900 to Current
DJIA Log Chart 1900 to Current. Prophet Charts: Copyright ©2007 Investools Inc. http://online.investools.com/
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DJIA 1900 to Current – Not on Log Scale
DJIA Flat Chart 1900 to Current. Prophet Charts: Copyright ©2007 Investools Inc. http://online.investools.com/
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DJIA 1906 to 1950
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Company Symbol Industry 3M MMM Diversified industrialsAlcoa AA Aluminum American Express AXP Consumer finance AT&T T Telecommunication Bank of America BAC Institutional and retail bankingBoeing BA Aerospace & defense Caterpillar CAT Construction and mining equipment Chevron Corporation CVX Oil and gas Cisco Systems (formerly GM) CSCO Computer networking Coca-Cola KO Beverages DuPont DD Commodity chemicals ExxonMobil XOM Integrated oil & gasGeneral Electric GE ConglomerateHewlett-Packard HPQ Diversified computer systems IBM IBM Computer servicesIntel INTC Semiconductors Johnson & Johnson JNJ Pharmaceuticals JPMorgan Chase JPM BankingKraft Foods KFT Food processingMcDonald's MCD Restaurants & bars Merck MRK Pharmaceuticals Microsoft MSFT Software Pfizer PFE Pharmaceuticals Procter & Gamble PG Non-durable household productsThe Home Depot HD Home improvement retailersTravelers (formerly CitiBank) TRV Insurance United Technologies Corporation UTX Aerospace, heating/cooling, elevatorsVerizon Communications VZ Telecommunication Wal-Mart WMT Broadline retailers Walt Disney DIS Broadcasting & entertainment
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S&P 500 – 1986 to today
BigCharts MarketWatch Quickcharts. Copyright © 2007 MarketWatch, Inc Retrieved from http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=SP500&sid=0&o_symb=SP500&freq=2&time=13
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NASDAQ 1978 to Present
BigCharts MarketWatch Quickcharts. Copyright © 2007 MarketWatch, Inc Retrieved from http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=nasdaq&sid=0&o_symb=nasdaq&freq=2&time=20
The Dot Com Bubble
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FOMC – Fed Funds Rate
0.0% to 0.25% or 25 basis points
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http://online.wsj.com/news/interactive/INVESTOR0104?ref=SB10001424052702303640604579296464068676966
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Fed funds: Leader of the interest rate packBy Bankrate.com
Here's how the Federal Reserve Board's changes to the federal funds rate have been reflected in other key interest rates over the past 10 years.
Bankrate.com ®, Copyright © 2007 Bankrate, Inc. http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/fed/fedchart.asp
Key interest rates
Aug. 28, 1996 through Jan.31, 2007
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Federal Funds Rate FOMC
Federal Funds Rate, Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NBER 2007 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: research.stlouisfed.org.http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS/118/Custom?cs=Medium&crb=on&cosd=2000&coed=2006-05-01&cg=Go
The “Greenspan Put”Greenspan Put“Free Money” 0 to .25%
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Federal Funds Rate, Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NBER 2007 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: research.stlouisfed.org. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS/chart?cid=118&fgid=&fgcid=&ct=&pt=&cs=Medium&crb=on&cf=lin&range=Custom&cosd=1995-01-01&coed=2007-06-13&asids=+%3CEnter+Series+ID%3E&same_scale=1&cg2=Refresh+Graph
Greenspan Put
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WSJ 10/9/2013 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304520704579125341760473438.html?KEYWORDS=taking+the+hot+seat
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WSJ.com July 31, 3012 from http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444130304577559320750777782.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
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WSJ 8/30/2013 In Turmoil, Emerging Markets Raise Rates Move by Indonesia Follows Brazil, Turkey; Trend Threatens to Deepen Slowdown. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324324404579043362869382586.html?KEYWORDS=in+turmoil+emerging+markets
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Fed Funds Rate 1954 to Present
Federal Funds Rate, Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NBER 2007 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: research.stlouisfed.org.http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS/118
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Core CPI vs. Fed Easing Cycles: 1960 – 2006. Seeking Alpha. Stock Market Opinion & Analysis. http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/core_cpi_y_y.jpg
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Interesting Tid Bits
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4/27/2013
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WSJ, July 27, 2012 at http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443477104577553431459135876.html
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http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/newspapers-are-americas-fastest-shrinking-industry/254307/
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WSJ August 24-25, 2013 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324619504579031300409638802.html?KEYWORDS=CEO+exit+sets+microsoft+on+new+path
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324886704579052380986072894.html?KEYWORDS=smartphone+sale#project%3DNOKFADE0904%26articleTabs%3Dinteractive
WSJ 9/4/2013
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Labor Cost ComparisonAuto Worker
• US autoworker with benefits $54/hr• South Korean worker $22/hr• Mexican worker $10/hr• Some Chinese workers $3/hr
Source: Washington Post 5/11/09
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WSJ, 8/3/2012 at http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444320704577566790169187310.html?mod=WSJPRO_hpp_LEFTTopStories#project%3DJOBSHISTORY09%26articleTabs%3Dinteractive
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Inside Your iPhone. New York Times July 5, 2010http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2010/07/05/technology20100706-iphone-graphic.html?ref=technology
iPhone Produces $306 for Apple
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http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt
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World GDP in USD
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
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http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2008-115a.pdf
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Real Estate
Case Shiller Home Price Index
Various Pictures
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The Mess That Greenspan Made. Blogspot. October 30, 2005.http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2005/10/housing-costs-core-cpi-recap.html
OFHEO = Office of Federal Housing EnterpriseOversight
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http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted/
Case Shiller Home Price Index
US national index levels, not seasonally adjusted. Historic prices are inflation adjusted May 2012 dollars.
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http://ycharts.com/indicators/case_shiller_home_price_index_composite_20#series=type:indicator,id:case_shiller_home_price_index_composite_20,calc:&zoom=10&startDate=&endDate=&format=real&recessions=false
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A History of Home Values. New York Times. Available http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
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http://www.housedata.info/rank/yr5/
Professor Piggington’s Econo-Almanac for the Landed Poor. Available http://piggington.com/a_history_of_home_values_graph_by_robert_j_schiller
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• “One definition of recession is two consecutive quarters with a declining gross domestic product.”
MSNBC News: Opinion Slate. Economic blame game. Why does Bush keep lying about when the recession started? By Daniel GrossJanuary 1, 2002. http://stacks.msnbc.com/news/853442.asp?cp1=1#BODY
• In economics, a recession is a general slowdown in economic activity in a country over a sustained period of time, or a business cycle contraction.[1][2] During recessions, many macroeconomic indicators vary in a similar way. Production as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, investment spending, capacity utilization, household incomes and business profits all fall during recessions. (Wikipedia)
[1] "Recession". Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/recession. Retrieved on 19 November 2008.
[2] "Recession definition". Encarta® World English Dictionary [North American Edition]. Microsoft Corporation. 2007. http://encarta.msn.com/encnet/features/dictionary/DictionaryResults.aspx?refid=1861699686. Retrieved on 19 November 2008.
http://www.nber.org/releases/
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Petroleum – Various Pictures
WTI “Light Sweet Crude”
Brent North Sea
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NYMEX Crude Oil Futures. Front Month. WTRG Economics. Copyright 1999-2006 by James L. Williams. http://www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html
Light Sweet Crude 83 to present
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Brent_Spot_monthly.svg
Brent North Sea Oil Price 1987 to 2011
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http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-west-texas-intermediate&months=360
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svg
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WTI Crude Oil Spot Price Chart
http://ycharts.com/indicators/crude_oil_spot_price/chart#series=type:indicator,id:crude_oil_spot_price,calc:&zoom=10&startDate=&endDate=&format=real&recessions=false
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US Dollar vs. Euro
Google Finance: US Dollar vs. Euro http://finance.google.com/finance?q=USDEUR
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US Dollar vs. Oil
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Crude Oil Prices 2004 Dollars. WTRG Economics. Copyright 1996-2005 James L. Williams. http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm
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http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/colombia/images/map.swf
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