The U.S. Ceramic-Matrix Composites Market in the 1990s Thomas Abraham

Authors Note: This article summarizes information com­piled for the Business Communications Company publica­tion Ceramic Matrix Composites.

INTRODUCTION

Unlike polymer-matrix composites, ceramic-matrix composites (CMCs) constitute a small volume of the total demand for advanced composites. However, their per-kilogram value is the highest among composites. The de­velopment and introduction of CMCs should follow the same historical pat­tern as organic-matrix composites. Aero­space, military, and other high-perfor­mance applications have been the pri­mary focus. However, as confidence in these materials is achieved, substitution for metals and traditional ceramics is being based on tradeoffs between cost and performance. This has already been demonstrated by the use of SiC -w hisker­toughened alumina tool inserts and par­ticulate-toughened zirconia.

CERAMIC MATRICES

Among the matrices of interest in the CMC area are oxides, carbides, nitrides, borides, glasses and glass-ceramics, and silicates. Shown in Table I are the most important CMC systems that are in use or under development. In addition to these materials, silica, glass, and glass­ceramic composites are also used in high­temperature applications.

APPLICATIONS

Current applications ofCMCs include cutting tool inserts, wear-resistant com­ponents, space-shuttle tiles, and aero­space components. Potential applica­tions include engine components; hy­personic radomes; hard armors for military vehicles; leading-edge applica­tions in aerospace; and high-tempera­ture, corrosion-resistant parts.

A few of the particulate-toughened ceramics (e.g., zirconia-toughened ce­ramics) are filling applications such as bearings, bushings, precision balls, valve seats, and die inserts. In these applica­tions, the CMCs' friction and wear char­acteristics improve performance and cost. Similarly, particulate-toughened, as well as whisker-reinforced, alumina has found use as cutting tool inserts, replacing carbide and metal tool inserts. For space-shuttle tiles, which require a good combination of strength, thermal stability, and low density, the material

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of choice is silica or a combination of silica and other ceramic-fiber-reinforced ceramic composites. However, for large­scale applications such as automotive engines, the price of the engine ceramic components has to come down; that will be possible only when these components are produced on a massive scale.

For example, the cost of an automo­tive engine at present is between $750 and $1,500; a metalIic valve costs between $1 and $5. Ceramic components would be cost-advantageous even if the price were as much as double the price of the metallic component. For ceramics or ceramic composites to reach that price level, the infrastructure has to be devel­oped for the massive manufacture and testing of these components; this is still a deterrent for CMC manufacturers.

PRICES

The price of CMCs varies Widely-the low is $45 per kilogram for AlP/TiC and Si3N4

-based composites; the high is $1,350 to $2,700 per kilogram for space shuttle tiles and SiC/SiC composites produced by chemical vapdrinfiltration. The prices are high, particularly for com­posites that take several weeks to pro­duce. However, the cost of high-priced composites should come down with the introduction of large-scale production.

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

In the United States, more than 50 companies are involved with fiber and whisker reinforcements and CMCs as suppliers, developers, processors, and manufacturers of ceramic components and as sponsors of research. Ceramic­matrix composites require enormous investments in research and develop­ment and production facilities. For this reason, industry participants tend to be very large companies.

THE U.S. MARKET

The markets for CMCs are still being developed, and the only mature markets are cutting tools, wear parts, and some aerospace applications. However, the aerospace applications depend mainly on decisions to build space shuttles, mis­siles, and the national aerospace plane. Some applications, such as leading edges in aerospace vehicles, are being incor­porated because of the advantages of light weight and better performance. Engines parts are applicable only to the next generation engines. Replacing a current engine part is not cost effective. There are opportunities in energy-related applications (e.g., tubes for heat ex­changers and parts for kilns and other industrial furnaces).

Table I. Important Ceramic/Ceramic Composite Systems

Matrices Reinforcement SiC Si,N. Al2O, BN zr02

AIN

SiC • • • • Si,N4

AIP3 • BN • • • zrOz • • • AlN • •

Table II. U.S. CMC Component Markets and Market Shares According to Applications (1990-2000)

1990 1995 2000 Average Dollar Market Dollar Market Dollar Market Annual Value Share Value Share Value Share Growth

Market (Millions) (%) (Millions) (%) (Millions) (%) Rate (%) --- --- --- ---

Cutting Tools 32.0 24.5 57.5 23.1 104.0 20.4 12.5 Wear Parts 53.5 40.9 119.5 47.9 272.0 53.4 24.5 Aerospace and

Military 34.5 26.4 47.0 18.9 67.0 13.2 6.9 Engines 4.0 3.1 14.0 5.6 47.0 9.3 28.0 Energy-Related

and Industrial Applications 6.75 5.1 11.2 4.5 19.0 3.7 10.9

Total 130.75 .100.0 249.2 100.0 509.0 100.0 14.6

JOM • June 1992

31% Engines

40.9% Wear Parts

5.1% Energy-Related

Parts

a b

9.3% Engines

53.4% Wear Parts

3.7% Energy-Related

Parts

Figure 1. The market segments for CMCs in (a) 1990 and (b) 2000. In 1990, the total U.S. market for CMCs is estimated to be valued at $131 million. For 2000, the market is projected to be worth $509 million.

A recent study by the Business Com­munications Company (BCC) estimated the U.s. market for CMCs to be about $131 million for 1990. The markets and market shares according to applications are shown in Table II. The overall market is estimated to grow 14.6 percent annu­ally to reach $509 million in the year 2000. The market shares-according to applications-for 1990 and the year 2000 are illustrated in Figure 1. In terms of volume, the 1990 consumption was esti­mated to be 230 tonnes; this figure is likely to double by 1995 and double again by the year 2000.

Substantial progress has been made in the use of CMCs as cutting-tool inserts. Currently used CMC tool inserts include TiC-particulate-reinforced Si3N4 and AIP3 and SiC-whisker-reinforced A~03. The 1990 tool-insert market was esti­mated to be about $32 million. It is ex­pected to grow 12.5 percent annually to reach $57.5 million by 1995 and $104 million by 2000.

Wear-resistant parts made of tough­ened zirconia along with whisker- and fiber-reinforced ceramic composites constituted the largest market segment for 1990, having a 41 percent share ofthe market. This share will increase further in future years, reaching $119.5 million in 1995 and $272 million in 2000. The growth rate will be 24.5 percent from 1990 to 2000.

In aerospace applications, silica or high-thermal-performance tiles for the space shuttle or other space vehicles are an established market. However, this market depends on the construction of new space shuttles and there are cur­rently no plans to do so. However, there could be some applications on the pro­posed national aerospace plane. In addi­tion to these applications, Nicalon-fiber­reinforced alumina is used for nozzles

1992June. JOM

and exhaust ducts, and SiC-matrix com­posites are used in leading-edge appli­cations in aerospace. The 1990 aerospace market was estimated to be $34.5 million. It is expected to reach $47 million in 1995 and $67 million in the year 2000, dem­onstrating a growth rate of 6.9 percent during the period. There is some uncer­tainty in this market segment because of the uncertainty of developments with space vehicles.

Ceramic composites for engine ap­plications haveyetto take off. Currently, several materials are being tested. Among these, silicon nitride and tough­ened-zirconia composites look quite promising. Some of the early applica­tions will be in aircraft gas turbine en­gines or rocket engines.

Also, toughened-zirconia parts will find early applications in diesel engines. The current market is only about $4 mil­lion for prototype quantities and for test purposes. However, BCC expects a large growth rate in this segment-as much as 28 percent annually for the nextten years, reaching $14 million in 1995 and $47 million in 2000.

The market for CMCs in energy-re­lated applications (e.g., tubes for heat exchangers and kilns and other industrial furnaces) is quite small. Nextel-fiber­reinforced SiC-matrix composites are being tested by several companies. One established market is the use of mixed CMCs (e.g., TiB/BN, mullite/BN, and AlN IBN) for high-temperature appli­cations. BCC estimates the 1990 market to be about $6.75 million, which will increase to $11.2 million by 1995 and $19 million by 2000.

Oxide-matrix composites will dom­inate the market throughout the pro­jected period. This is mainly due to the high-volume zirconia composites for wear parts and alumina-matrix compos-

ites for cutting-tool inserts. In the appli­cations areas, for 1990, the market for oxide-matrix composites comprised wear parts (41 %),aerospace(26.4%),and cutting-tool inserts (24.5%). Engine ap­plications will make inroads, in a limited way, in 1995. For the year 2000, the larg­est share (53.4%) will be for wear parts, followed by cutting tools (20.4%), aero­space (13.2%), and engine applications (9.3%). To some extent, the decreased market share for aerospace applications will be attributable to growth in indus­trial applications.

INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION

In terms of international competition, the United States has an edge in ceramic­composite technology. There are two reasons. First, the United States already has a good technology base in polymer­and metal-matrix composite technolo­gies. Second, the aerospace and military industries are much stronger in the United States than in other countries. However, Japanese competition is ex­pected in the future since they are begin­ning to manufacture these composites_ In the ceramic-reinforcement areas, Ja­pan is already a leader. European com­panies are also positioning themselves to compete with the United States_ In certain CMC processing technologies (e.g., chemical vapor infiltration), France has become a leader.

Thomas Abraham is senior industry analyst and director of the Ceramics Group at BCC in Norwalk, Connecticut, and is editor of the publication High Tech Ceramics News.

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