the Untold Story of Methane, Climate, and Health
Transcript of the Untold Story of Methane, Climate, and Health
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Cows, Coal, and Cooking: the Untold Story of Methane,
Climate, and Health
National Centre for Epidemiology & Population HealthAustralian National University
July 23, 2008
Kirk R. SmithProfessor of Global Environmental Health
University of California, Berkeley
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Society has three basic options for responding to human-caused climate change
• Mitigate by working to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy, agriculture, and land use or to capture them from the atmosphere in order to slow or, perhaps, reverse warming
• Adapt by reducing the negative effects of climate change through protecting coastlines, moving populations away from impacted areas, increasing efforts to control climate-related vectorborne diseases, insulating cities from heat stress, etc..
• Suffer, i.e., given that efforts in the first two arenas above are moving slowly, there is very likely to be suffering, perhaps considerable in poorer parts of the world, because of the climate change committed already.
• We will be doing all three, but can reduce the third if we put more effort into the first two.
• Some of the suffering will occur because climate change and the ways we deal with it interfere with our other long-term health goals, such as reduction of child death.
Framework from Holdren, 2006
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Two short briefings
• How do the distributions of climate change emissions and health impacts compare?
• How does this change if the special characteristics of methane are included?
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Direct Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health
Original by Patz ~1996
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Published in 2004, 2 vols, ~2500 pp(available on WHO CRA website)
Global Warming Chapter: McMichael et al.,
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WHO Comparative Risk Assessment Climate Change Health Impacts as of 2000
(McMichael et al., 2004)• Diarrhea – 2.4% of global burden• Malaria – 2%; 6% in some regions• 17% of protein-energy malnutrition• 7% of dengue fever in some rich countries• 150,000 deaths, 99% in poor countries
(46% in South Asia)• 0.4% of all DALYs (lost healthy life years)• Most (88%) of impact in children under 5• Not large today, but growing.
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.
Cartogram of ClimateCartogram of Climate--related Mortality (per million pop) yr. 2000related Mortality (per million pop) yr. 2000
Patz JA, Gibbs HK, Foley JA, Rogers JV, Smith KR, 2007, Climate change and global health: Quantifying a growing ethical crisis, EcoHealth 4(4): 397–405, 2007.
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Global Risk Transition(Experiencing Risks)
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0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
PPP per capita
DA
LYs
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100
0Health Impacts from Climate Changeby Income Level across the World
Smith & Ezzati, 2005
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Patz JA, Gibbs HK, Foley JA, Rogers JV, Smith KR, 2007, Climate change and global health: Quantifying a growing ethical crisis, EcoHealth 4(4): 397–405, 2007.
Cumulative CO2 emissions from fossil fuels (as depleted by natural processes)
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Distribution of Health Impacts from Climate Change
(Experiencing versus Imposing)
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Smith, 2008
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Distribution of Health Impacts from Climate Change
(Ratio: Imposing/Experiencing)
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0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
PPP per capita
Ratio
>8000x different!!Rich countries impose >500times more risk than theyreceive
Poor countries receive >16 times more healthrisk than they impose
Smith and Rodgers
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IPCC 2001scenarios to 2100 ----------------
1000 years of Earth temperature history…and 100 years of projection
Global average surface temperature is an index of the state of the climate – and it’s heading for a state not only far outside the range of variation of the last 1000 years but outside the range experienced in the tenure of Homo sapiens on Earth.
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Risk and Uncertainty
Attributable Risk
Avo
idab
le R
isk
Indoor Air Pollution
Malnutrition
TobaccoClimateChange
Outdoor Air Pollution
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The Methane Story: CH4
Three subplots:•Methane and global warming•Methane and global health•Methane and the health
of the poor
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IPCC, 2007
Warming in 2005 from emissionssince 1750
More than halfdue to methane
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Math of GHG Decay (AR4)CO2 goes into four compartments:
19% of total with a lifetime* of 1.2 years34% at 18.5 y26% at 173 y21% with “infinite” lifetime
Methane has a 12 y lifetime, but contributes to ozone, a GHGand eventually oxidizes to CO2
*Lifetime refers to the time to reach 1/e (37%) of the original amount
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Natural CO2 and CH4 Depletion - first 10 years
0.4
0.5
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0.7
0.8
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Fraction remaining
of 2008 emissions
Carbon DioxideMethane
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R elative Warming of Methane and C O2
from Emis s ions in 2008
0.1
1
10
100
2008
2028
2048
2068
2088
2108
F uture Annual
Warming from One
Ton of E ach Pollutant
R eleas ed in 2008
Warming from CO2
Warming from Methane
Includes CO2produced by the methane
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How can we compare projects to reduce different GHGs?
Why not just take all future warming into account?This would mean that no effort would go into avoiding emissions of the shorter lived GHGs, such as methane, because CO2 has such a long lifetime.It would result in spending most money to protect people thousands of years into the future and ignoring the needs of ourselves and our children.Thus, the IPCC established in 1996, official Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), which are weighting factors to compare the impact of different GHGsGWPs are built into the Kyoto Protocol, the Clean Development Mechanism, and nearly all national inventories and reduction plans, including Australia’s
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Methane and TimeThe current official GWPs are based on 100-year time horizons
Methane is 21 x CO2 by weight Equivalent to ~0.75% discount rate
For making decisions on how to spend resources when impacts are upon us, <1% is too low.The other GWP published by IPCC, has a 20-year time horizon
Methane is 72 x CO2 by weightEquivalent to ~ 8% discount rateMore compatible with financial investments
International health investments use a 3% discount rate, which would be a GWP of ~48
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IPCC, 2007
Time perspectivemakes adifference
100-yhorizon
20-yhorizon
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Methane GWPs and Discount Rates
5
25
3948
5561
66 70 73 76 78
0102030405060708090
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Annual Discount Rate - %
EquivalentGWP
Official GWP of 21~0.75% discount rate
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Methane #1: Summary A much more powerful greenhouse gas (GHG) than CO2Partly due to its direct effect, but also because it creates ozone (O3), another powerful GHGAbout 100 times more per ton than CO2 at any one timeEventually turns to 2.75 times as much CO2 by massMethane has thus contributed a significant amount to global warming, But has a much shorter atmospheric lifetime compared to CO2Thus, changes in emission rates will have a much faster impact to lower warming
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Mauzerall, 2007
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Methane #2: SummaryMethane is precursor to tropospheric (ground level) ozone Tropospheric ozone rising around the worldSignificant impact on natural ecosystems and agricultureWHO and other agencies lowering ozone standards/guidelines because of new evidence on mortality and continued evidence of morbidityStandards suggested by health protection are now at the top end of regional levels in some parts of the world, e.g., EuropeNowhere to hide
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Livestock30%
Coalmining
6%
Fossil fuelburn1%
Biomassburn3%
Wastewater
9%
Landfills12%
Rice10%
Manure4%
Oi/gas18%
Other ag7%
Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions ~2005Total ~ 305 million tons
Growing at~1.5% per year USEPA, 2006
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"Modern" Biomass
1.4%
Other Renewables
0.8%
Traditional Biomass
9.3%
Hydro2.3%
Nuclear6.9%
Natural Gas21.7%
Oil35.1%
Coal22.6%
"New renewable energy sources"
2.2%
Population: 6.102 billionTotal energy use: 10.2 GtoePer capita energy consumption: 1.67 toe
World Energy – 2001
World Energy Assessment, 2004
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Chinese household rural energy:
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National Household Use of Biomass and Coal in 2000
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Greenhouse warming commitment per meal for typical wood- fired cookstove in India
403 g
CO2 Carbon:403 g
86 g
Methane Carbon:
3.8 g
131 g69 g
Other GHG CarbonCarbon Monoxide: 38 gHydrocarbons: 6.3 g
4.7 g
Nitrous Oxide0.018 g
Wood: 1.0 kg
454 g Carbon
Global warming commitments of each of the gases as CO2 equivalents
Source:Smith,et al.,2000
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Indian Households Using Biomass Fuels
2 million tons methaneper year of 300 Mttotal global human emissions
Smith,et al. 2000
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Energy flows in a well-operating traditional wood-fired cookstove
Into Pot2.8 MJ18%
In PIC1.2 MJ
8%
Waste Heat11.3 MJ
74%
Wood: 1 kg15.3 MJ
Traditional Stove
PIC = products of incomplete combustion = CO, HC, C, etc.
15% moisture
Source:Smith,et al.,2000
A Toxic Waste Factory!!
Typical biomass cookstoves convert 6-20% of the fuel carbon to toxic substances
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Toxic Pollutants in Biomass Fuel Smoke from Simple (poor) Combustion
• Small particles, CO, NO2• Hydrocarbons
– 25+ saturated hydrocarbons such as n-hexane– 40+ unsaturated hydrocarbons such as 1,3 butadiene– 28+ mono-aromatics such as benzene & styrene– 20+ polycyclic aromatics such as benzo(α)pyrene
• Oxygenated organics– 20+ aldehydes including formaldehyde & acrolein– 25+ alcohols and acids such as methanol– 33+ phenols such as catechol & cresol– Many quinones such as hydroquinone – Semi-quinone-type and other radicals
• Chlorinated organics such as methylene chloride and dioxin
Plus methane
Naeher, et al.2007
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First person in human history to have her exposuremeasured doing one of the oldest tasks in human history
Kheda DistrictGujarat, India1981
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Health-Damaging Air Pollutants From Typical Woodfired Cookstove in India.
10 mg/m3
Carbon Monoxide:150 mg/m3
0.1 mg/m3
Particles3.3 mg/m3
0.002 mg/m3
Benzene0.8 mg/m3
0.0003 mg/m3
1,3-Butadiene0.15 mg/m3
0.1 mg/m3
Formaldehyde0.7 mg/m3
Wood: 1.0 kgPer Hour
in 15 ACH40 m3 kitchen
Typical Health-based Standards Typical Indoor
Concentrations
IARC Group 1 CarcinogensBest single indicator
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CognitiveImpairment?
ALRI/Pneumonia(meningitis)
Asthma
Low birthweight
Earlyinfantdeath?
Chronic obstructivelung disease
Interstitial lungdiseaseCancer (lung, NP, cervical,aero-digestive)
Blindness (cataracts, trachoma)
Tuberculosis
Heart disease?
Diseases for which we haveepidemiological studies showinga link to household biomass use
Birth defects?
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ALRI ALRI associatedassociated withwith use use ofof solidsolid fuelsfuels: : analysisanalysis ofof ~12 ~12 observationalobservational studiesstudies
Subgroup analyses Odds ratio (95% CI)
All studies 2.3 (1.9-2.7)
Use of solid fuel 2.0 (1.4-2.8)Duration of time child spent near the cooking fire
2.3 (1.8-2.9)
Studies adjusting for nutritional status 3.1 (1.8-5.3)Studies not adjusting for nutritonal status
2.2 (2.0-3.0)
Children aged <2 years old 2.5 (2.0-3.0)
Children aged <5 years old 1.8 (1.3-2.5)
Smith et al in WHO, Comparative quantification of health risks, Smith et al in WHO, Comparative quantification of health risks, 20042004
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Global Burden of Disease from Top 10 Risk Factorsplus selected other risk factors
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Climate change
Urban outdoor air pollution
Lead (Pb) pollution
Physical inactivity
Road traffic accidents*
Occupational hazarads (5 kinds)
Overweight
Indoor smoke from solid fuels
Lack of Malaria control*
Cholesterol
Child cluster vaccination*
Unsafe water/sanitation
Alcohol
Tobacco
Blood pressure
Unsafe sex
Underweight
Percent of All DALYs in 2000
Smith et al.2005
4.9 million prematuredeaths/y
0.15 million premature deaths/y
1.6 million premature deaths/ytwo-thirds from ARI in children
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Tests show emissions nearly at LPG levels: Low health risk and essentially no greenhouse emissions
A Chinese Biomass Gasifier Stove
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Health and Greenhouse Gas Benefits of Biomass Stove Options
0200400600800
10001200
1 10 100 1000
Global Waming Per Meal
PM10 Level
Coal Stove
BiomassGasifierStove
Co-benefits in China:~$500/life-year saved~$6/t-CO2 averted
Smith &Haigler, 2008
grams-CO2 -eq
ug/m3
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Smith & Haigler, 2008
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Smith & Haigler, 2008
CurrentCost-effectiveRegionIn China
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Economic Development
Once global and national markets pick up their portions, local market can pay remainder
DR ~40%
Rural Energy is Linked to Three Major SectorsPaying for Rural Energy Development
NationalMDG Health
“Market”
1-3x $GDP/capita per DALYsaved (WHO/IBRD, etc.recommendation)DR ~3%
Global ClimateMarket
$ per ton-carbon(world carbonmarket) –DR <1%
High-efficiency low-emissionsrural energy technology istoo expensive for local markets
Technology
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Methane #3: Summary
• Methane is one of the constituents of products of incomplete combustion (PIC) from fuel combustion
• PIC are responsible for much burden of disease in the world’s poorest populations
• Controlling this PIC has a double benefit: health and climate
• Can potentially be done economically – low hanging fruit for both
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Methane and equity
• We have seen how methane’s health impacts, direct, indirect, and associated, mostly affect the poor
• What about methane emissions: how are they distributed?
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Patz JA, Gibbs HK, Foley JA, Rogers JV, Smith KR, 2007, Climate change and global health: Quantifying a growing ethical crisis, EcoHealth 4(4): 397–405, 2007.
Ratio of largest to smallest emittingcountries ~ 500x
This kind of calculation, howeveris based only on CO2 emissions:
National Natural Debts: Cumulative CO2 emissions, depleted by natural processes
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IPCC, 2007
Warming in 2005 from emissionssince 1750
More than halfdue to methane
How much allocatedto each living personfrom both GHGs--- our natural debts?
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International Natural Debt Per Capita
50%
21%
28%
18%
41%
33%
31%
18%
16%
16%
41%
77%
47%
70%
80%
69%
67%
77%
72%
92%
- 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
AUSTRALIA
USA
CANADA
CZECH REPUBLIC
UKRAINE
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
GERMANY
BELGIUM
UK
MEXICO
BRAZIL
CHINA
INDONESIA
VIETNAM
INDIA
PHILIPPINES
PAKISTAN
NIGERIA
BANGLADESH
Tons CO2 - eq
CO2CH4
10 largest LDCs~55% of world pop
PercentmethaneRatio of largest to smallest emitters
considering both CO2 and methane~ 40x
Smith and Rogers, In preparation
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Australian Methane Emissions - 2006
26%
59%
14% 2%Energy
Agriculture
Waste
LULUCF
National GHG Inventory 2006, Dept of Climate Change, 2008
Enteric-85%Manure-3%Burning – 12%
Coal-83%
Oil/gas-17%
5.6 Mt ~2% of global total
83% solid17% wastewater
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In Australia83% offuel cycleemissions are due to coal mining
Methane Emissions from Coal – trends
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In Australia 85% ofagriculturalemissionsare due toenteric emissions from livestock
Methane Emissions from Livestock – trends
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Conclusion on MethaneMethane emissions are more important than current official weighting factors indicate because of its large effect over the next generationLikely to increase in “value”, perhaps during the post-Kyoto deliberations now startingDeveloping countries have a bigger roleMethane is emitted as part of the poor combustion process of solid fuels, which also produce much health-damaging pollutionImproving this combustion offers substantial GHG as well as health benefits in a cost-effective mannerWays to control are quite different from CO2 And may be easier in the short term
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Methane, cont.
Increases of wide-scale ground-level ozone is becoming a major world problemA significant health-damaging pollutantMethane emissions are one of its causesReduction of methane emissions, therefore, will help protect health worldwide in the short term
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Methane, cont.Way to reduce warming in the next generation is to put more attention on methane (and other shorter lived GHGs)Once the heat enters Earth’s systems, it does not matter where it came fromThe rate of warming is as important as the total amountWay to slow the rate is to immediately reduce methane emissionsWhile working to stop CO2 in the long run
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Being Smart about Mitigation
• Co-benefits: Guide mitigation measures so they help achieve other societal goals, including health protection.
• No-regrets: providing a short-term more certain return (health) on a long-term more uncertain investment (climate protection)
• Political bridge over the international divide between developed and developing countries
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Thank you
Publications available athttp://ehs.sph.berkeley.edu/krsmith/
If you are going to put carbon in the atmosphere, the best form in terms of either climate or health is carbon dioxide