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The United States of Publishing 2010: Status and Predictions
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Transcript of The United States of Publishing 2010: Status and Predictions
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
The United States of Publishing
Michael CairnsInformation Media Partners
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Introduction and Agenda
US Publishing Today Trends by Segment Publishing in the Digital Age Closing Comment
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Publishing: Like Any Other Industry
Change Dislocation Speed Technology
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Characterizing the Marketplace today
Subdued Anxious Retrenchment Confusion Jealousy
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Key Segment Business Drivers
Trade Big author block
buster Technology –
Products Technology –
Distribution Retail stability Media tie-ins
“Celebrity” Conflict over
‘attention’
Information Practicing
professionals Macro economics Library budgets Government
investment Workflow
applications Technology
innovation
Education Government spending –
NCLB Education Policy
Local & state Adoptions Taxes
Enrollments Economy
Continuing education Community colleges Long distance Vocational/Technical
Workflow tools Evaluative Administrative
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Revenues Look Healthy
$39,936
$40,321
$41,040
$42,028
2007 2008 2009(E) 2010(E)
Source: BISG Trends Report 2009
($,Millions)
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
New Book Titles and Editions: 2003-2010(E)
764,448
288,355
215,138
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
SelfPubs Traditonal
Source: R.R. Bowker
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Publisher’s Net Dollar Sales By Segment
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2007 2008 2009(E) 2010(E)
Adult Trade Childrens Religion Professional
Scholarly Elhi CollegeSource: BISG Trends Report 2009
($,Millions)
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Sectors Share of Book Industry, 2008
Adult Trade, 27%
Childrens, 9%
Religion, 8%
Professional, 22%
Scholarly, 4%
ElHi, 18%
College, 14%
Source: BISG Trends Report 2009
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Sales by Format 2008: Percentage of Total
Hardcover, 44%
Trade Paper, 37%
Mass Market, 9%
Electronic, 2%
Other Print, 8%
Audio, 1%
Source: BISG Trends Report 2009
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Channel Sales 2008: Percentage of Total
Specialty, 6.7%
Internet, 11.4%
Education, 32.6%
Other, 5.1%
Public Lib, 4.0%
Bookstores, 15.8%
Org/Direct, 7.5%
Wholesale, 10.6%
Source: BISG Trends Report 2009
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Growth Leaders and Laggards, 2007-8
Adult Trade, 9.0%
Childrens, -2.0%
Religion, -3.2%
Professional, 3.4%
Scholarly, 1.7%
ElHi, 3.5%
College, 4.2%
-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
Source: BISG Trends Report 2009
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Forecast Compound Growth Rates 2008-10
Adult Trade, 1.6%
Childrens, 0.6%
Religion, -0.5%
Professional, 2.4%
Scholarly, 1.5%
ElHi, 3.0%
College, 3.5%
-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
Source: BISG Trends Report 2009
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Sales of Trade E-Books $ Millions
$11.2
$90.0
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10
Source: IDPF
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Sales of Digital Textbooks: Percent of US Market
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Misouri Book Company
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Many publishers have been publishing in e-Formats for
many years.
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Pearson: Digital is 31% of revenues in 2009.
Wiley, Elsevier, Wolters Kluwer have similar statistics
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
18
Publisher Education Trade Info/Academic Other Total
Reed Elsevier $8,525 $1,006 $9,531
Pearson $2,905 $1,573 $760 $562 $5,800
McGraw Hill $2,388 $954 $2,610 $5,952
Wolters Kluwer $4,562 $4,562
Houghton M H $2,000 $500 $2,500
Kaplan $2,636 $2,636
Cengage $1,437 $297 $224 $1,958
J. Wiley & Sons $230 $413 $969 $1,612
Scholastic (US) $400 $1,165 $1,565
Informa $461 $577 $380 $1,418
Random House (US) $1,280 $1,280
ETS $900 $900
Harpercollins (US) $840 $840
Simon/Schuster (US) $730 $730
Macmillan US $667 $667
Hachette (US) $670 $670
Harlequin $500 $500
Total $43,121
Counting the Publishers: Increasingly Difficult
Source: Publisher Web Sites and Publisher’s Weekly
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Nothing is clear or clear cut: Significant Confusion
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So if we can’t really rely on the reported numbers, then
what?
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Can real experience be a guide?
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Lessons learned from the Evolution of Information
Publishing
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Information Publishers were trailblazers
CompetentMaster Learner
EducationInformation Trade
20031990 1995
20102015 2001
Rapid InvestmentNew Dangers Caution
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Information Publishers Took Nothing for Granted
Where are the boundaries? Who is the customer? How to reach them? What is the role of technology?
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com25
In The Beginning: Lexis
Secondary Legal
Content
Secondary Legal
Content
Primary Legal
Content
Primary Legal
Content
Books, Journals,
Directories
Transcripts,Proceedings,
Opinions
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Success in Information Publishing
Build deep, narrow content verticals Eliminate the distance to the customer Integration with workflow and activities
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com27
The LexisNexis Model
Secondary Legal Content
Primary Legal Content
News & Business Content
Public Records
Company & People Information
Global Application of Platform and ContentGlobal Application of Platform and Content
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Critical Success Factors
Direct sales effort fuels product development Core to basic functions: Doctors, lawyers, and
business analysts, etc Raise job performance Improves worker productivity Topic specific vocabularies and thesauri
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com29
From Print Monographs to Integrated Solutions
Development of ‘platforms’ Expanding the Market Subscription Revenue Model Database Marketing
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Education is next to adopt the strategy
Consolidation: Segment and subjects Investment supported by margin growth Reduce distance to customer Expand value chain Broader definition of ‘customer’
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Publishing in the Digital Age
Thoughts and predictions
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Remember the Characterization?
Subdued Anxious Retrenchment Confusion Jealousy
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Are things really that bad?
During 2009 Book Publishing a winner No ‘resurrection’ during 2009 Executives guarded about immediate future Short to medium term problems with
education and library funding No industry bail-out
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
What hasn’t happened?
No trade consolidation Far less Merger/Acquisition activity Collaboration across the supply chain Stable physical book retailing environment
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
Change is Coming
Trade Re-evalution of
value chain Direct to
consumer models Publishers as
retailers, retailers as publishers
Information Software as a
service Application
providers Service
outsourcers Embedded
content
Education Expanded value
chain Solutions
providers Custom
production Content,
Assessment, Remediation, Management
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
eBooks and eContent holds center stage
2009 ‘Year of the E-Book’ Apple’s (Hardware) role in book/media
content will be defining Google Editions: “The Cloud” Content ‘rights’ challenged: Concept of
ownership E-Content rather than E-Books E-Content another format option
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How Trade Evolves their Communities
Subject specific content silos Exchange titles/imprints with other publishers Publishers license ancillary and related
content: Drive repeat traffic Become sites within sites: Build community
with consumers Build other services
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com38
Forecasting Publishing In The Digital Age
Publishing and technology will become synonymous
Web delivery, xml based and ‘open’ social network orientation
Expansion of solutions based publishing Education publishers rapid adoption of
solutions based applications Slow publishers will loose to new entrants
Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com
THANK YOU.
The United States of Publishing
Michael [email protected]
Blog: personanondata.blogspot.com