The truth on climate change

GLOBAL WARMING

aka Anthropogenic Climate Change

Fact or Fiction: Do we need to Control CO2?

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Contents• Part One

– What makes the Climate?• Part Two

– Environmentalist View of the World• Part Two

– What is Global Warming • Part Three

– Facts on CO2 and Temperature• Part Four

– Forecasting Temperature from CO2

• Part Five– Why this is a serious issue

• Discussions

Prepared By:

David Pristash, ConsultantBrecksville, Ohio 44141

Cell: 216.272.4583Email: [email protected]

Definitive Proof of Global Warming

Definitive Proof of Global Warming

PART ONEWhat makes the Climate?

The Source of our Climate

The Atmosphere

Image from Wikipedia “Atmosphere of Earth” Author of image Hasting AtmosphCirc2.png July, 2011

Composition of Earths'

Atmosphere with WaterGas Percent ppmv

Nitrogen (N2) 77.762673% 777,626.730

Oxygen (O2) 20.858480% 208,584.802

Argon (Ar) 0.928194% 9,281.944

Water vapor (H2O) 0.408326% 4,083.259

Carbon dioxide (CO2) 0.039637% 396.375

Neon (Ne) 0.001793% 17.927

Helium (He) 0.000510% 5.099

Methane (CH4) 0.000169% 1.693

Krypton (Kr) 0.000110% 1.096

Hydrogen (H2) 0.000054% 0.538

Nitrous oxide (N2O) 0.000030% 0.299

Carbon monoxide (CO) 0.000010% 0.100

Trace Gases: 0.000014% 0.139

The Earths atmosphere is estimated to be 5,000,000,000 mmt (5.0 X 1015 metric tons) therefore “A” ppm * 5,000 = “B” mmt

Source Wikipedia “Greenhouse Gas”

July, 2011

4,500 542 415 300 200 145 65 1.8

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This is very questionable

Where is the Water?

Water Vapor The Major Greenhouse Gas

• Water vapor accounts for the largest percentage of the greenhouse effect, between 36% and 66% for clear sky conditions

• And between 66% and 85% when including clouds and this is perhaps the biggest unknown in the models..

• Water vapor in the atmosphere raises the earths surface temperature about:– 33o C or from -18o/-19o C to 14o/15o C – 59o F or from -1o/0o F to 57o/58o F

Source Wikipedia “Greenhouse Gas” July, 2011

Carbon Cycle This section shows a yearly flow into the ocean of 92 gt and releases of 90 gt for a net reduction of 2 gt carbon.

This section shows a yearly flow into the vegetation of 121 gt and releases of 120 gt for a net reduction of 1 gt of carbon.

This is Carbon not Carbon Dioxide both terms are used and it can be confusing.

CO2 a Requirement of Photosynthesis

• There is evidence that a higher concentration of atmospheric CO2 speeds up plant growth. This effect was enhanced by:– Higher temperatures– Higher lighting levels– Higher supporting water and nutrients

• Growth shown to be over 300% higher in some cases

Equation released for open use by author ZooFan. Photo from Dan Digs – dandigs.com

July, 2011

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Environmentalist View of the World

PART TWO

Global Warming, “The Problem”

• We have been told the Earth is warming from a CO2 build up in the atmosphere, trapping in heat.

• We have also been told this CO2 increase is the result of burning fossil fuels.

• Are these True or False?14

The Answer to Warming is “Yes”

• The world has been in this warming trend for well over 15,000 years, since the last ice age, in fact.

• As a result the world average temperature is now about 4o F warmer then back then but still way below the historical average. 15

The Answer to CO2 Increasing is“Yes”

• The use of carbon based fuels especially since 1850 has probably increased the level of CO2 in the atmosphere

• As a result CO2 levels have gone from 280 ppm to almost 400 ppm today

The IPCC Claims:• CO2 buildup in the atmosphere is the cause

of large projected temperature increases

• They have computer models that prove this is true and there is a consensus of scientists that support this belief

• This will cause catastrophic climate changes that will cause much suffering

• We must stop putting CO2 in the atmosphere before this happens

From the newscientist.com 29 April 2009 by Catherine Brahic

This is Graphic of the IPCC Models

Basics of Climate Models• Net Climate Forcing

– Increase in temperature (From more CO2)

– C02 trapping IR and transferring it to H20

• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity– Heat transfer out of the system (up & down)

– H20 radiating heat up out of the atmosphere

– H20 radiating heat down into the oceans

• Rate of heat transfer to the deep ocean– How much mass is in the system– Movement of heat down warming the ocean

Global Climate Models’

• Global Climate Models (GCM) are very complex mathematical constructs used to try and predict future climate

• They requires a solid understanding of all the physical and energy flows in the biosphere

• They are based on developing equations for “everything” that effects heat movement and then solving those equations

• This requires that the world from the deepest ocean to the top of the atmosphere be placed into boxes or cells --- called a mesh

• To properly model the climate we need to look down 10 miles and up at least 60 miles which comprises a volume of 13.8 billion cubic miles

• If we used a resolution that was a ¼ mile that would mean 8.832 Trillion cubes.

This picture is in the Public Doman the source is NOAA

Climate Model Problem AreasHadley Centre model HadCM3, for example, uses a mesh based on 3.75 longitude and 2.5 degrees latitude (255 miles by 449 miles), giving a grid of 96 by 73 points; and has 19 levels in the vertical.

This results in about 500,000 "basic" variables, since each grid point has four variables (u,v, T, Q), though a full count would give more if clouds soil levels and other things were considered. The next two sides shows this in approximate scale. The following are areas that need work.

• Mesh Size x, y, z (typical 100 km X 100 km X 1 km)

• Convection and water vapor too small for mesh

• Clouds too small for mesh

• Precipitation too small for mesh

• Upper air (troposphere) warming issues (mesh or theory)

• Seasonal variability not well predicted (mesh or theory)

• Elevation gives predictive problems to temperature (mesh or theory)

• North South hemisphere differences – why?

Sample of GCM Model

Image from Hadley Center, August, 2007

Problems with the Models• The models mostly assume a static or “base” world temperature with

“change” from anthropogenic causes.• The climate models were started to look at items that trace

directly to man, anthropogenic, for root cause with only some thought given to natural causes.

• Key assumptions used such a the life of CO2 in the atmosphere have little scientific support.

• The model element size, the mesh, is way too large to properly consider “key” climate factors such as “clouds.”

• Water in the atmosphere and the resulting movement in (evaporation) and out (rain) and the creation of clouds is the most important part of understanding the concept of GW.

This area which is the least understood is the most important.• The models appear to have a bias toward a runaway “positive

feedback” situation from CO2 that is not supported by historic records.

• Is the increase in CO2 the “main” reason the planet is warming?

• For this to be TRUE we must have both– High correlation (move together) &– Cause and Effect (one precedes the other)

• Are both of these true?

The Question?

CO2 Seems to follow TemperatureFrank Lansner, civil engineer, biotechnology

This composite graph of actual data from all major temperature peaks of the Antarctic vostok data confirms the well known temperature-CO2 relation with ….

Temperature as a driver of CO2.

CO2Concentration

Parts per MillionBy Volume

CelciusTemperature

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“NO” Statistical Correlation between CO2 Concentrations and Temperature

SPPI April 09 2009 CO2 Report Page 10

This Chart shows three values for the effect on temperature on climate on the doubling of the concentration of CO2

Lindzen uses +.64 C as a radiative forcing value

Kondratjew & Moskalenko show +.87 C as a radiative forcing value

Charnock & Shine use +1.45 C as a radiative forcing value

We are at 400 ppm so you can see that if Lindzen is correct than almost all of the CO2 effect has already occurred.

Climate Sensitivity a Key Issue

Historic Temperature and CO2

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Climate Sensitivity, Not what the IPCC Claims it is!

Raw data CO2 & Temperature from Don J. Easterbrook, December, 2009 Chart & Climate Model David Pristash July, 1011

This Chart shows actual historic plots of CO2 (Black) and Temperature (Blue).

The Yellow plot shows a Temperature Plot based on a Lindzen’s .64o C Radiative Forcing value. The Red plot is based on Charnock’s 1.46o C Radiative Forcing value.

The IPCC says it is between 2.0o and 4.5o C for a doubling of CO2.

Neither plot follow the Blue plot.

PART THREE

Facts on CO2 and Temperature

• What is the temperature of the plant?

• Does it very naturally?

• Are there cyclical patterns?

Questions on Temperature

• Historical World Mean (WM) Temperature Range – Low range for WM 11o/12o C, 51.8o/53.6o F

– High range for WM 22o/23o C, 71.6o/73.4o F

• Present Temperature– 100 year base for WM is 13.9o C, 57.0o F

– Current estimate of WM is14.3o C, 57.7o F

Temperature Facts

Historically it looks like this.

And here is where we are …

4,500 542 415 300 200 145 65 1.8

Millions of Years Ago

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More Currently We Have

Raw data from Don J. Easterbrook December, 2009 Chart David Pristash April, 1011

Temperatures on the Greenland Ice Cap from the End of Last Ice Age

Temperature Greenland Years Before Present

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Temperatures Changes over the last 12,500 years

How is the Worlds Temperature even Determined?

• First a Base is established• Then Temperatures are measured as an Anomaly –

above and below• Plots are generated showing deviation from the

base.• The calculation of the “base” is critical to

determining the Anomaly• One of the points of contention is the methods

being used to collect temperature data.

Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office Base 13.9 degrees C shown on these charts as 0 degrees

More proof of global warming from NOAA?

How do we explain this? A lot more on this later.

World Mean Temperature in Kelvin

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Chart from Data (monthly) downloaded from NASA and NOAA April, 2013

Same Information Different Format

• Temperature in degrees Celsius – C– 0o C is the point where water freezes

• Temperature in degrees Kelvin – K– 0o K is absolute zero– 1o K is 1.8o Fahrenheit– 1o K is 1.0o Celsius

Chart from Data (monthly) downloaded from NASA and

NOAA April, 2013

CO2 goes from ~280 ppm in 1880 to about 400 ppm today --- for an increase of 42.9%

The Earths’ temperature has been estimated to have risen from ~280o K in 1880 to 287.7o K today for an increase of 0.13%

Considering the difficulty in even accurately measuring the earths temperature --- one wonders how this GW issue can get so much traction.

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide - Mauna Loa NOAA & Global Mean Temperature NASA

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PART FOUR

Forecasting Temperature from CO2 levels

Temperature Model based on Trends

• Short cycle ~70 years

• Long cycle ~1000 years

• Small CO2 component

• Trends shown on next side

• The plots from this model match actual temperatures as reported by NASA very closely, especially the current ones

Chart from Data (monthly) downloaded from NASA and NOAA Trends by David Pristash April, 2013

Global Mean Temperature From NASAand Developed Trend Models

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Temperature NASA Trend Base Trend Short Trend CO2 Trend Forecast

The Yellow Line is the NASA Temperatures

The Black Line is the Long trend

The Blue Line is the Short Trend

The Brown Line is the CO2 Component

The Orange Line is the sum of the three

Chart from Data (monthly) downloaded from NASA and NOAA Trend by David Pristash April, 2013

Trend Verses IPCC

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NASA Monthly Temperature Trend Forecast IPCC Forecast

Zooming in to see more detail and adding the IPCC projection (Red Line) to the previous Chart we have a good picture of the current situation

Detail of Trend Verses IPCC

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Chart from Data (monthly) downloaded from NASA and NOAA Trend by David Pristash April, 2013

Zooming in even closer we can see the NASA temperature trend seems to be pulling away from the IPCC projection.

Further the NASA temperature plot appears to be following that of the Model developed here

Chart from Data (monthly) downloaded from NASA and

NOAA Trends by David Pristash

April, 2013

This Chart shows the complete model which runs from 1800 to 2200 by month.

On this chart the Dark Blue trace is CO2 (NOAA) and the Yellow trace is Temperature (NASA). The Orange trace is the plot of the Trend Model The Red trace is the IPCC projection based on the various climate models.

The temperature scale on the right was selected to encompass the full range of “historic” world temperatures.

Trend Analysis of Global Mean Temperature Using Current and Historic data for Temperature & CO2

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Comparison of Model and Actual Data on an Annual Basis

Table One, Key Temperatures

Cycle Year Actual CO2 Forcast CO2 Actual Tmp. Forcast Tmp. Years

1800 1801 0.00 280.04 0.00 13.601880 1881 0.00 282.18 13.92 13.821958 1959 315.26 312.51 14.10 13.952012 2013 393.82 392.86 14.56 14.572203 2204 0.00 650.19 0.00 15.242900 2901 0.00 783.44 0.00 15.19

C-1 1835 1836 0.00 280.29 0.00 13.261872 1873 0.00 281.58 0.00 13.87 37

C-2 1902 1903 0.00 285.14 13.85 13.52 301940 1941 0.00 298.91 14.07 14.17 38

C-3 1967 1968 322.53 321.99 13.99 13.87 272007 2008 384.08 383.09 14.62 14.59 40

C-4 2034 2035 0.00 450.91 0.00 14.33 272072 2073 0.00 530.42 0.00 15.01 38

C-5 2102 2103 0.00 573.16 0.00 14.65 302138 2139 0.00 609.57 0.00 15.20 36

C-6 2170 2171 0.00 632.94 0.00 14.76 322204 2205 0.00 650.45 0.00 15.24 34

Support for Model

• Easterbrook, “Natural Cycles”• Soon, Roberson & Roberson,

“Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Paper “

• Lindzen and Choi, “On the determination of climate feedbacks from ERBE data”

• The Earth has had many major shifts in temperature and cycles that are not tied to what man does.

• We moved from a very cold period into a warmer period over 15,000 years ago.

•CO2 has been at much higher levels before mankind.

• A man made increase in CO2 will not cause the earth to overheat.

What we Have Learned

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Part FiveWhy this is a Serious

Issue

We Need Lots of Energy

How Much Energy Do We Use

To Convert All Coal to Wind using actual 2005 EIA information

• Coal Plants, 221 mWh each (actual average):

– 1,502 Plants 335,892 mWh Name Plate

– Generated 235,789 mWh for 70% uptime

• Wind Turbines, average 2.5 mWh (max size):

– 314,386 Turbines 785,964 mWh Name Plate

– Generate 235,789 mWh at 30% uptime

To Convert All Gasoline Vehicles to Electric, Powered by Wind

• 250,844,644 vehicles on road in 2006 (actual):

– 138 Billion Gallons of gas used 2010 (actual)

– At 114,000 BTU per Gallon = 15.7 QUAD


– 236,000 Turbines 590,000 mWh Name Plate


Way Too Many Wind Turbines

• Combining the two we have:


– 550,386 Turbines 1,375,964 mWh Name Plate


Summary

• Temperatures are rising• Cause and effect not

established to CO2

• Incomplete understanding of carbon cycle

• Climate models are not accurate enough to use in setting any policy

Who Stands to Benefit (Follow the Money):

• Government – Income redistribution

• GE and Al Gore

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Discussion

Abbreviations & Sources Used

• CRU Climate Research Unit --- University of East Anglia, UK• DOE U.S. Department of Energy• EIA Energy Information Agency (DOE)• EPA Environmental Protection Agency• GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies NASA)• gmt billion metric tons (also gt or Gmt or bmt)• Hadley Centre --- Part of Met Office• IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change• Met Office --- UK National Weather Service• mmt million metric tons• NASA National Aeronautic and Space Administration• NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration• ppb parts per billion (ppbv parts per billion volume) • ppm parts per million (ppmv parts per million volume) • ppt parts per trillion (pptv parts per trillion volume)

Sources of Information

• Astrophysics http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/solar/soldata2.html• DOE http://www.energy.gov/• EIA http://www.eia.doe.gov/• Junk Science http://www.junkscience.com/• NASA http://www.nasa.gov/home/• Nature http://www.nature.com/nature/index.html• NOAA http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/• Science and Public Policy Institute http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/• SEED http://www.seed.slb.com/• Surface Stations http://www.surfacestations.org/• UN Statistics http://unstats.un.org/unsd/databases.htm• Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page• World Energy Council http://www.worldenergy.org/

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Other Sources

• Robert Ferguson, policy experience in climate change science

• William Happer, Physics Professor at Princeton• Frank Lansner, civil engineer• Richard S. Lindzen professor at MIT• Christopher Monckton, mathematician • S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist• Willie Soon, astrophysicist and geoscientist• Anthony Watts, meteorologist

The truth on climate change

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