The transition to C/AVs: understanding,€¦ · Rachel Skinner, Director, Development...
Transcript of The transition to C/AVs: understanding,€¦ · Rachel Skinner, Director, Development...
Rachel Skinner, Director, Development
@Rachel__Skinner
The transition to C/AVs:
understanding,
influencing and modelling
future trends
Now
+25 years?
or
Open options:
Transition leadership & partnership
opportunities
Benefits of a rapid transition
ONE-OFFOPPORTUNITIES
4
Towards “FULLY AUTONOMOUS
vehicles”
Definition: provides all “normally encountered”
journeys; any type of vehicles (cars, buses, freight)
Genuinely DRIVERLESS - no driver (or driver’s
seat).
Can move when empty
CONNECTED Likely to move as part of a
system
Increasingly multi-modal
Probably ELECTRIC
but could be a new energy source (e.g.
hydrogen)
Likely to be part of an
increasingly SHARED fleet
CORE TRENDS & DIRECTIONS
5
Towards “FULLY AUTONOMOUS
vehicles”
Definition: provides all “normally encountered”
journeys; any type of vehicles (cars, buses, freight)
Genuinely DRIVERLESS - no driver (or driver’s
seat).
Can move when empty
CONNECTED Likely to move as part of a
system
Increasingly multi-modal
Probably ELECTRIC
but could be a new energy source (e.g.
hydrogen)
Likely to be part of an
increasingly SHARED fleet
CORE TRENDS & DIRECTIONS
Now
+25 years?
orModelling implications & opportunities
TRIP GENERATIONIMPLICATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES - A FULLY AUTONOMOUS NETWORK
7
Decoupled trip ends
Management of quality & quantity of movement…
…desired movement as an input rather than a derived demand
For which the driverless transition offers the greatest potential benefit if we:
Use generated data to optimise
network operation
Aim towards a fully connected
roads system
Encourage and maximise
shared C/AV use
TRIP DISTRIBUTION & MODE SHARE: IMPLICATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES: A FULLY AUTONOMOUS NETWORK
8
Attractiveness of C/AVs likely to be controlled, dynamic &
visible to users
e.g. speed, cost, journey times – relative & absolute
C/AVs as a new element of multi-modal journeys
Complementary vs. competitive
Personalised journeys: the next level?
For which the driverless transition offers the greatest potential benefit if we:
Ensure that place & route operators have
appropriate system and data control/access
Ensure integration between C/AVs and
(future) rail/metro systems
Work towards a connected road network
system
TRIP ASSIGNMENT:IMPLICATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES - A FULLY AUTONOMOUS NETWORK
9
Perfect knowledge/operation or an easily distorted reality?
Planning for flexible and dynamic routes
e.g. future autonomous bus services
For which the driverless transition offers the greatest potential benefit if we:
Allow network operators to define, manage & monitor
network performance
STEPPING BACK: LAND USE & TRANSPORT MODELLING IMPLICATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES: A FULLY AUTONOMOUS NETWORK
10
Level of mobility service (MaaS) – a new driver for
growth?Population & jobs
MOVING ON: INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTUREIMPLICATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES: A FULLY AUTONOMOUS NETWORK
11
Review:Existing strong business case
weakened by likely C/AV transition
Redouble:Existing strong business case
strengthened by C/AV transition
Reject:Weaker projects made even
weaker by likely C/AV transition
Reconsider:Previously weak projects with
new potential due to C/AV transition
CONCLUSION:12
Is it all – the world and the
models – just going to be
more complicated?
Rachel Skinner, Director, Development
@Rachel__Skinner
The transition to C/AVs:
understanding,
influencing and modelling
future trends