The train to Venice

Briefing JSF - Lower House

|The Hague; May 22, 2008

by Johan Boeder, defense analyst

Dream or drama ?

Dream destinationVenice

What a perspective. Summer. Holidays. Travel agency. Choice from 6, from 4. Venice, yes that it will be.What a dream. Luxury train. All included.The driver. The party. The tour leader.

“Do you want to see a little film already? Just have a look…….”

JSF : the unbeatable dream

Error…= ChineseChengduJ10

Russian R-77MLonger range asJSF AMRAAM missile

Background information:www.ausairpowernet/APA-Flanker.htmlwww.ausairpowernet/APA-JSF-Analysis.htmlwww.ausairpowernet/APA-Grumble-Gargoyle.html

S300PMU S300V

New types ?

Like S400 ?

US GAO reportMarch 2008Costs pro Flight hourJSF > F16 !!

Sukhoi 35Superiorto JSF ..

MICA ! AA12 ADDER (R77M)

JSF the network dream

Joint tactical RadioJust another “success” story…Who did buy it already? Unique?

How unique ??In First JSF blocksnot avialaible.In Gripen alreadyoperational 2011

Predicting maintenanceNot unique. In JSFcomplex by all differentparticipants/systems

F22 Raptor:No Link-16 !!

What unique selling points ???

Network centricSuggests thereis a network.Present in EUR ?

Unique ?? (See F16)Datalink Sukhoi TKS-2Datalink Gripen JAS39 Have superior capacityLong year experience

JSF dream of unlimited awareness…..

OptionalagainstHigher price ….

How unique?Already available inEuropa and Russia

Not uniqueDelay in availability

Stealth changed from VLO very low observable to LO low observable. Only to frontal stealth to X-/K-band radars. Argument heavily over estimated say several experts. Usefull in Afghanistan, Sudan, Tsjaad ?Other capabilties traded off (towed decoy, active jamming) !

Ground attackoptimised

Not unique

After 2012 not uniqueAnd widely available

Just, what is really unique ??

Anti Stealth measuresAre fast growing

Geen towed decoy(raket misleideraan “touwtje”)

Geen Actief Jamming(actief electronischmisleiden)

Not avialable: reconaissancepod(SUDAN, e.g.)

JSF the dream to the industryIn the past withF104, F5, F16procurement: GuaranteedIndustrial compensation

JSF/F35 : continuous uncertain“best value” competitionNo industrial compensationNo “level playing field”No real competitionReturn on investement ?

Building of the route to Venice

When they were building the railway to Venice they had to make choices.(Ravines-Bridges-Inhabitants-Costs….)

And design choices never are “free” ………

Operational Technology

DevelopmentCosts

Projectmethod

Fundamental choices (1996-2001)

Results in SDD stage (2002-201x)

Technologyproblems

Wrongprojectmethod

Latedelivery…

Large operational consequences (2020-2050)

Lowerquantity

Lowerindustrialbenefits

OperationalCapacity

restrictions

Cost proFlighthourhigher

Lesscapable

Unit pricerising

Sideeffects

+ +

Fundamental concept choiceJSF operational

• Multiservice Airforce AND Marines AND Navy

(in 3 versions to 9 countries, 90% commonalityand including all meetings and bureaucracy)

• Has to replace x types (all-in-one: Porsche-Jeep-Family car)

• Must be Stealth (high design requirements)• Primarily ground attack optimised,

complementary to the F-22 Raptor

Choice operational

Concept all services(airforce, marines, navy) 3 versions, 9 partner countries

Design parameter (Commonality)Oct.2001 : > 60%

Dec.2007: < 40%(logistical benefitsminimised now…)

Complexer designHigher development costs YesFuture savings ? No

Choice operational

Concept: primarily groundattack, stealthand replacement of many old types

Choice operational

Choice of an operational concept is not“free” in terms of design….

• Higher costs design, manufacturing, operations• More time and risks in development• Trading off of characteristics

= “Jack of all trades” and not excellent in all• Stealth + versions + All-in-one

= software complexity and higher weight• JSF stealth: restricts self protection possibilities and

operational use (no towed decoy, less swing role)• Etcetera ……...

Solutions to be brought bytechnological innovations…

Choice operational

Fundamental conceptual choicesJSF use of new technologies

• Propulsion technology (STOVL version)• New 270VDC electrical system

(flight controls, subsystems, etc.)• New designed avionics/sensor integration• Design/production proces (supply chain)• New (software) systems voor mission

control, support, etc.

Choice technology

Example of design choices having consequences:

Used with permission of Airpower Australia ©www.ausairpower.net

Choice technology

Normal development proces

TechnologyDevelopment

Integration ProductionDemonstration

Knowledge point 1:. Technology can bedemonstrated in model. Design feasibility proven. TRL should be matured tolevel 7

A B C

1996 2001 2007

Knowledge point 2:Indicated by prototype demonstration of the design and release of 90% of the engineering drawingsAll technology TRL =/>7

Background information

USA defense projects

• Presentation US Test & Evaluation Forum byGAO director Robert E. Levin – mrt 2005

• Link http://www.dtic.mil/ndia/2005test/wed5.pdf

• Outlining risks of current US defence programs: insufficient separation design + testinsufficient separation test + production

About fundamental choices in JSF project method

JSF Technology Readyness Levels NOT ok in 2001 butSDD started ………. The fundamental mistake !!

Critical Technology TRL in 2001 nu TRL=7?

Integrated Core Processor 5 NoIntegrated Support Systems 4 NoManufacturing 6 YesMission System Integration 4 NoPrognostic & Health Management

4 No

Radar 5 NoSTOVL/Integr.FlightPropuls.Ctrl.

6 No

Subsystems 5 Yes

Choice in JSF project method

Just nownot yet OKHoweverproductionstarted…..

The train on the way..

Long journey. Germany. Austria. Venice. The dream. And everything well suited, and Venice will be so beautifull.

Unrest. In the train. News on the radio. Danger. Avalanches.

Landslides? Threatening ravine?

Result JSF wrong project method

JSF planning 2003

Comments of Airpower Australiawww.ausairpower.net

Results in JSF SDD stage.

TechnologyDevelopment

Integration

LowRateProduction(LRIP)

Development – Test prototypes

Knowledge point 1 : NO

A

B C

1996

2001 2012

TRL levels okay ? NO

2001: high riskalready at the start of development(but nobody told you)

TRL levels okay ? NO !!

Knowledge point 2 : NO

2007: Overlap of design,and testing and production

EXTREMELY HIGH RISK

Full rateProduction

Too early

Again taken new risks:Manufacturing prototypeswhen design NOT ready…….

By fundamental choices in JSF project method……

Furtherdelayed

SDD FASE

And in 2011Dutch AirforceWants to startTraining/IOT&EUnbelievable !

2011

JSF planning May 2008

In 2012 : already > 100JSF’s in productionWhat if failures detectedIn test? Re-manufacture?

US GAO mar-2008 :3 months progressfor every 4 monthswork and budget

3% design drawingsready at CDR F35A(standard=90% !!)

Overlapdevelopmentand IOT&E

US GAO mar-2008Manufacturingproblems persistanother 2 years

Planning

Realisation

Result JSF wrong project method

Rainfall, landslides

Landslides caused by heavy rainfall have blocked the railroad in Austria now. The train connection to Venice is obstructed.

Some images of the chaotical situation on and along the railway….

JSF : engine problems• Serious concerns Pratt & Whitney F135

engine• May, Aug., Oct/Nov-2007; Jan/Feb-2008.• Several serious problems, e.g.

Unexpected engine blade failures bycertain vibrations

• Alternative engine GE F136 importantInformation Dutch Deputy Minister (mar-08) on this item incomplete and reassuring “minor problems, because the most early date of a possible, still uncertain, solution will beOCTOBER 2008 ..

Result concept choices : technology problems

JSF : new 270V electrical system

• JSF only fighter with 270VDC systemused by most on-board systems, e.g. flightcontrols

• May 2007: emergency landing, followed by 7 month grounding; redesign necessary

• Larger generator needed in october 2007 (capacity calculation wrong ……)

• Will lead to new weight increases …..

Information Dutch Deputy Minister to Parliament (7-May-08) on this item incomplete and reassuring “problem solved”, however one week later the US JSF Program Office Chief in aninterview Star Telegram: no 100% solution yet…

Result concept choices : technology problems

JSF : structural overweight• In 2004 re-plan necessary due to high weight

(much higher than expected)> US$ 7 Billion costs; redesign; 1,5 year delayed

• JSF/F35A still 9,6% heavier than originalcalculations; close to the limits (< 1%)

• Normally after IOT&E and start of operationalservice weight will increase 6%; so there is a minimum tolerance !

Again reported byUS-GAO Maart-2008As a problem

More analysis/background:www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-160407-1.html

Result concept choices: technology problems

Complex project = more riskCOMPLICATING FACTORS F/A18E/F F/A-22 F-35 /JSFParticipation of more forces

(airforce + navy + marines)

No No Yes

Different variants 1 1 3

Avionics Existing New New

Stealth characteristics Minimal Yes, VLO

(extended)

Yes, LO

(restricted)

Software (operational flight program)

Lines of sourcecode (in millions)

1,1 M. 2,2 M 5,0 M

Motor types 1 1 2 cruise1 lift

International participation No No Yes

F22 Raptor delay and costs is the past legendaricJSF is a 2 - 3 times more complicated project ……..

Background info : example of results of design choices

Result : operational capacity restricted or delayed

Situation of development stage June 2002Red deletions: situation End 2003

Used with the permission of Airpower Australia ©www.ausairpower.net

By moving theintegration of some weaponsTime and Moneywill be saved inSDD stage.

Result 1:Costs movedto productionstage

Result 2:Operationalrestrictions

Move things in the planning of the trip…..

The tour leader and the driver already knew it.Austria. Avalanche danger. Land slides. Delay. Threateningravine.The tour leader started to regulate yet. Venice. Move somewhat with the arrival, with the excursions, makingthem a lit bit shorter.Yet a dream soon. Dream in abbreviated form…...

Result: operational capacity restricted or delayed

2006 Situationworsened further

Is this wat defence wants to have? A fighter without too much weaponryat the intial operational date…...Now you understand why JSF Program Office doesn’t like any audits…..!!!

COSTS moved fromdevelopment toproduction =We will have to pay

Used with the permission of Airpower Australia ©www.ausairpower.net

After end of SDD….Contract DoD (2006)

Threatening ravine

By intense rainfall and landslides the railway in Austria is blocked. Risk of derailment and next to the rails, deep ravine.Notwithstanding the train goes on with raging speed …..…

Tour leader to travel party: “There are some minor problems, but when weArrive at that point our perfect team of railway workers will have cleanedup all mess… Your dream is not in danger”

Would the railroad to Venice be safe in time……..??

Testing JSF pre-prototype AA-1Planning first flight :First plan : 2005After replan : aug. 2006Realisation : dec. 2006

Planning : basic tests100-150 flights betweenAug-06 and March-08(6-8 flights/month)Realisation: 43 flightsBacklog : 12-13 months.

May-2007 serious problem EHA-system; Plane grounded until december. Resdesign needed; report says it costsHundreds of millions (Bloomberg aug-07)DEF-officials misleading: MINOR problem.

Dutch Defence in May 2008 to Dutch parliament: No any backlog…….

And AA-1 is NOT yet a productionRespresentative prototype !!!

Results in JSF development stage: delay in planningTestprogram until2012 has to bearound 5600 flights !

Car manufacturer designing a newModel and after 2000 miles of test drives they start production …..You can imagine? You would buy ?

Also possible with JSF in 2012!Boeing Statement on 787 Center Wing Box (Source: Boeing Co.; issued March 20, 2008)

EVERETT, Wash. --- It is a normal part of the development of a new airplane to discover need for improvements, and that is what we are experiencing on the 787. The robust test process in place on the 787 program has confirmed the majority of our designs but we have found the need for some improvements.

The center wing box issue has been addressed. The fix is being installed onAirplanes 1-6 in the Everett factory. Installations have begun on the four airplanescurrently in Final Assembly. All airplanes after Airplane 7 will have the solutionincorporated from the beginning.

. The test process is working when issues are discovered and we are reactingappropriately by implementing normal design validation and fixes when we findissues.

In the case there are structural problems found in 2012 with tests,it would mean that over 100 JSF’s ready or in production has to bedismantled, repaired, rebuild. (or problems to be hided….)

With enormous delays and costs! This is a real potential RISK.

Result in JSF development : huge risks

By overlap test+production

Testing of flying JSF laboratory

Testing would be continuedSays Dutch Defence with the CATbird; as a matter of facton 7-dec-2007 the firstreal mission test flightstook place (one year delay).In januari 2008 it was notConfigured completey yet.

At this moment in hangarto be completed.

Dutch Defense reportsParliament: CATbird is OK …..!

Results in JSF development stage : delay in planning

JSF : project summaryNovember 1996 (progr.start)

October 2001

(SDD start)

December 2003

(replanning)

Dec. 2007

Quantity (USA) 2978 2852 2443 2443SDD stage

(development)$24,8 $34,4B $44,8B $48,9B *

Procurement

(production)n/a $196,6B $199,8B $249,9B

Total (in billion US$)

n/a $233B $245B $299BJSF pro unit(ex developm)

n/a $69M $82M $102,3M

1st deliveryoperational JSF

2007 2008 2009 2010

IOC datum (operational)

2010 2010-2012 2012-2013 2012-2015

3 jaardelayed

48 %Up ….

Quantityunderpressure

Further delay quite certain

Result in JSF development stage: dramatic cost increase

doubled

Tell them everything,but in the Italian….

Here your Tour Leader: “The stay costs in Venice, agains price level 2002, in old Italian Lires, and exclusive bedding, breakfast, city tax, are still the same as advertised in our brochure”.Only costs can be added, to be fixed by me later. But this price I willguarantee to you because it will be valid during one week to all participants.

JSF : life cycle cost

• Costs pro flighthour F-35A estimated higher yetthan F-16 (doubled, based on reports of US Deparment of Defense, 2007; see GAO mar-08)

• Causes: higher maintenance costs, higher fuelconsumption, exta effected by higher fuel prices; more employees needed; higher costs logisticalsystem…….

• Will have major impact the calculations onwhich the JSF choice has been based !Misleading answer: ? PBL=performance bases logistics, means maximum dependency to Lockheed Martin until 2050.

Structural operational consequences 2020-2050

Promised number much too high

• 2001 : 5.000 to 6.000 units had been mentioned(Dutch industrial business case based on that)

• US : first 2864 until 2028, Now 2458 until 2034; (imagineJSFs produced in 2034 has to be in US service until2070 ….)

• Quantity of USA < 1600 units highly probable.• Quantity JSF partners from 650 to < 500. • Analysis international fighter market until 2028:

maximum market of 1.000 units all-in.

Expected production until 2030 : < 3000 !

Structural result 2020-2050

Will impact price and industrial workshare

JSF project costs• Further increase of costs quite certain• In 2 years already US$23 billion extra (2006/2007) • Price pro unit much higher = less sales potential• Development costs doubled already

(still growing each year…..)Informatie bronnen :

http://www.jsfnieuws.nl/?page_id=62 (US SAR)http://www.jsfnieuws.nl/?page_id=61 (US congres etc.)http://www.jsfnieuws.nl/?page_id=68 (US GAO)

• Tip : make a comparison of SAR 2003 and SAR 2007

Structural result: procurement costs

MUST HAVE MAJOR IMPACT ON PRICE AND COSTS OF OPERATIONAL USE

USAF fighter jets in 2020: 56 %

2008 2015 2020 2025

F-15C/D Eagle 441 220 180 160

F-15E Strike Eagle 224 200 190 100

F-16 (multi role) 1244 700 240 50

A/OA-10 (grondaanval) 340 320 190 175

F-22 Raptor 101 185 180 175

F-35A 0 142 375 600

Totaal 2350 1767 1355 1260If no further delaysor budget problemswill occur…

USA homeland defence in dangerUSA future coalition wars impossible

56% of 2008

Structural result 2020-2050, partly by other reasons :

Driver, will we wait for a moment and have a

look….Land slides. Blocked railroad. Threatening ravine.People with red flags along the railroad.Warning of red signal lights.

Notwithstanding the train goes on and on ..…Travellers: “Driver, we may stop for a moment, finding out what is the truth, imagine it will be true.”

Driver: “Travellers, blindly trust your tour leader.He is paid for it. The dream.”

First flight “our” type JSF: F-35A• First flight around march 2009 (> 1 year later);

this is 4th time schedule CTOL prototypes, and again 13-18 months delay…

• About IOT&E stage (the Netherlands will buy 2 “test” JSFs): in feb.2006 already reported byUS/UK will start > sept. 2012

• Decision IOT&E may wait without problems !

Deputy Minister of Defence writes 29-FEB-2008 to Dutch parliament: “The IOT&E is planned during 2011 to 2013”. This is contrary to what US defense reports and what will befeasible!! Dutch IOT&E participation will cost 250 Million !!

Result to our Dutch JSF project

But, may I get off ?

Driver, may I get off?NO, you may read in your ticket, you have the obligation tocontinue…..

Driver, may I have a look in your JPO train cockpitto know what you know, to see what you see?No, it is not permitted by the regulations.

Follow, just follow the tour leader.

The train to Venice

The travelers. Common sense. Just make a stop.

Have a look. Open eyes and open ears.

When is’s a false alarm: the train may continue later.

Strong desire to get your dream? Or afraid a drama will happen ?

Train to Venice, questions?

The train to Venice,does it have emergency brakes?

Johan Boeder: my Motivation

As a free and independent citizen :use my knowledge to public benefits, without political tiesexpertise >30 jaar in aviation, > 30 jaar in system integration and software, on-board systems, auto-identification, industrial, etc.

Concerned about the lack of democracylack of transparency and misleading information about JSF transparecy is the heart beat of democracy and debate

Concerned about the right use of our tax money

Concerned about our national security and defenseJSF will have impact the long term future of our defense forces

One of the man with a RED flag

Based on facts• Due to restricted time: this is only a small

top of the iceberg in this complex / difficult to oversee project

• Each element I may found with sufficientsources and references

One of the man with a RED flag