What is a dynamic equilibrium?

InflowInflow OutflowOutflow

Constant inflow: I Variable outflow O(C , T)- +

I = O(C, T)Complete Ice age: I = O(0 ppm, -21°C)Last 10,000 years: I = O(275 ppm, 15°C)

Today: I = O(400 ppm, ?)Future: I = O(+2 ppm / year, ?)

Time lag

New Dynamic Equilibrium

I = O(C, T)- +There is a time lag

Temperature

Time

Green houseeffect (C)

The greenhouse effect (C) sets the long run temperature (T), but…

3-4°C – The Tipping Point

Temperature

Time

The tipping point

3 – 4 °C

Equilibrium T

The cliff we can not fall off

I = O(C, T)

Temperature

Time

Dynamic equilibrium & the tipping point

3 – 4 °C

Inevitable, but not yet realized

The point of no returnThe tipping point

EquilibriumI = O(C, T)

A emission profile in which we are safe

Temperature

Time

Emission Profile (C)

3 – 4 °C

Within carbon budget

Safe Equilibrium

Time lag

Infograph <3

What is good about it?•It was made for The Guardian– http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/201

2/dec/07/carbon-dioxide-doha-information-beautiful

•Top sources (like NASA and the IPCC)•They publish their data and calculation in a very accessible datasheet

Within the confidence interval for the carbon budget

Beyond the tipping point

The Takeaway