The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons
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Transcript of The Terrorist’s Choice: Nuclear, Biological, or Cyber Weapons
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William G. Rhodes IIISenior Manager, Sandia National
LaboratoriesAlbuquerque, NM
The Terrorist’s Choice:Nuclear, Biological, or
CyberWeapons
Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National
Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
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William Ury, “The walk from "no" to "yes," Ted.com, 11/30/2010
TERRORISM“Taking an innocent stranger and treating him as an enemy who you hurt or kill in order to create fear.”
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FBI: 100% Chance of WMD Attack
Vahid Majidi, FBI Assistant Director, FBI WMD Directorate, 2/14/2011
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3IDEASIDEAS
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Risk MatrixRisk Matrix
Black Swan EventsBlack Swan Events
Ideas of Terrorist Success
Ideas of Terrorist Success
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Risk = Threat x ConsequenceMotivationMotivation
Materials & ToolsMaterials & Tools
ManagementManagement
Human Capital & SkillsHuman Capital & Skills
Planning & ExecutionPlanning & Execution
OPSECOPSEC
EconomicEconomic
Health EffectsHealth Effects
Psychological EffectsPsychological Effects
InfrastructureInfrastructure
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Risk = Threat x ConsequenceMotivationMotivation
ManagementManagementMaterials & ToolsMaterials & Tools
Human Capital & SkillsHuman Capital & Skills
Planning & ExecutionPlanning & Execution
OPSECOPSEC
EconomicEconomic
Health EffectsHealth Effects
Psychological EffectsPsychological Effects
InfrastructureInfrastructure
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Ideas of Terrorist Success
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Operation Hemorrhage
New York Post, “Cargo-jet plot was a cheap thrill” POST WIRE SERVICES, Nov. 21, 2010
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Range of Possibilities
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Terrorists are Failure Adverse
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Black Swan Events
Black Swan Events
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UnpredictableUnpredictable
Retrospective ExplainabilityRetrospective Explainability
Large Consequences
Large Consequences
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Nuclear WeaponsNuclear Weapons
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Materials + Knowledge
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PuPu9494
Plutonium(239)Plutonium(239)
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TIME Magazine cover, “Merchant of Menace”, Feb. 14, 2005
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Urs Tinner, World Radio Switzerland
Marco Tinner, Associated Press
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Changes Since 9/11
•USG Position on Terrorist Capability
•KSM Warning
•USG Nuclear Security Programs
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Nuclear WeaponsFinal thoughts on
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Biological Weapons
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Siege of CaffaSiege of Caffa
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Spread of Bubonic Plague in Europe
Spread of Bubonic Plague in Europe
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NOVA Science Now, History of Bio Warfare
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NOVA Science Now, History of Bio Warfare
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Terrorist Use of Biological Agents
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The Dalles, Oregon
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TIME Magazine cover, “Cult of Doom”, Apr. 3, 1995
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Materials + Knowledge
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Bacteria
Toxins
Rickettsia
Viruses
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•2009 Rumors of Plots
•USG Bio-security Initiatives
•Other Activities
Changes Since 9/11
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Bio WeaponsFinal thoughts on
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Cyber Weapons
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We rely on ourcyber infrastructure
for so much!
We rely on ourcyber infrastructure
for so much!
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Why are Cyber Threats Different?
Why are Cyber Threats Different?
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•Viruses
•Spyware
•Spam
•Phishing
•Trojan Horse
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StuxnetStuxnet
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•National Cyber Security Division, US CERT DHS
•Cyber Command, DoD
•US Cyber Security Coordinator
Changes Since 9/11
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Cyber AttacksFinal thoughts on
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“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”
Niels Bohr, 1922 Nobel Prize Winning Physicist
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3CHOICESCHOICES
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Rank Weapon Type Average Rank
1 Chemical Weapon 1.3
2 Radiological Weapon 2
3 Biological Weapon 2.7
4 Nuclear Weapon 4
Delphi Survey
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Source: Jihadists and Weapons of Mass Destruction, Eds. Ackerman and Tamsett, CRC Press, 2009, pp. 379-395
Delphi Survey Results
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Final Thoughts
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“Thank You”