The Swedish Economy and Monetary Policy NBP Warsaw 24 May 2012
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Transcript of The Swedish Economy and Monetary Policy NBP Warsaw 24 May 2012
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Governor Stefan Ingves
The Swedish Economy and
Monetary Policy
NBP Warsaw24 May 2012
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Financial markets fragile
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SpainItalyFranceGermanySweden
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Weak growth in the euro area…
GDP, annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
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The world
USA
Euro area
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…which dampens Swedish exportsExport market and exports
Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Export
BNP
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Improvement at the start of the year
Index, 2007 = 100 Source: Statistics Sweden
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Export of goods
Retail trade index
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Some positive signs
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The Economic TendencyIndicatorMean
+/- one standarddeviation
Index, mean value = 100, standard deviation = 10
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
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Labour market to deteriorate slightly over the coming year
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Unemployment, percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
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Low inflation
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CPIF
CPI
Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Repo rate to remain low
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FebruaryApril
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank
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A forecast, not a promise
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90%75%50%UtfallPrognos
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly mean values Source: The Riksbank
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Household´s debt
Note. The series refers to the Riksbank's own calculations using data from Statistics Sweden.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Debt/disposable income
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Sweden has a large banking sector that is dependent on other countries…Bank assets in relation to GDP
Note. Per cent. Data refer to December 2010. Sources: ECB, European Commission, Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank
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SlovakiaRomaniaBulgariaPolandLatvia
LithuaniaHungary
Czech RepublicFinland
SloveniaLuxembourg
BelgiumItaly
GreeceAveragePortugal
IrelandGermanyDenmark
AustriaFranceSpain
SwedenNetherlands
United KingdomSwitzerland
The major Swedishbanks' foreign operations
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Swedish banks are de facto Nordic-Baltic
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Finland:39 %
Estonia: 81 %Latvia: 53 %
Lithuania: 62 %
Sweden:75 %
Market share of Swedish banks inNordic and Baltic countries, late 2009
Sources: Official and industry data, Riksbank estimates