The Study of Master Plan on High Standard Highway Network ...
Transcript of The Study of Master Plan on High Standard Highway Network ...
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The Study of Master Plan on
High Standard Highway Network Development
in the Republic of the Philippines
Japan International Cooperation
Agency
Department of Public Works and
Highways
OUTLINE OF THE STUDY
Cebu City BRT Studies Coordination Conference
Cebu City
May 9, 2009
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Outline of Presentation
1. Background of the Study
2. Objectives of the Study
3. Study Area
4. Study Schedule
5. Organization to Carry-out the Study
6. Meetings
7. Study Methodology
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1. Background of the Study
Chronic traffic congestion is experienced in urban roads of Mega
cities, and urban road sections of inter-city roads.
This results to increase of travel time, failure of timely delivery of
goods and people, and loss of valuable time of people.
(i) Traffic Congestion is one of the serious problems of
the road sector
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[Urban Roads in Mega Cities]
•Traffic Congestion throughout the day (particularly from 7:00AM to
10:00PM)
•Slow travel speed
- EDSA : 13-17 km/hr
- Ortigas Ave. : 7-9 km/hr
•Travel Demand Management
- Truck Ban
- Color Coding
1. Background of the Study
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TRAVEL
SPEED
(km/hr)
TRAFFIC
VOLUME
(AADT)
POPULATION
(1998)
Inter-city Road (L=123.5km)
[Inter-city Road]
1. Background of the Study
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1. Background of the Study
Sound socio-economic development is adversely affected by
inefficient transport system, losing international competitiveness of
industry, and foreign and domestic investment.
(ii) Negative Impact of Traffic Congestion
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Global Competitiveness Ranking
•Global competitiveness Ranking conducted by World Economic Forum to 131 countries showed that:
- Philippines is ranked 71st out of 131 countries
Problematic Factors Affecting Ranking:
(i) Infrastructure 94th
(ii) Labor Market Efficiency 100th
(iii) Quality of Institutions 95th
(iv) Health and Primary Education 86th
- Other ASEAN Countries:
- Singapore is ranked 7th
- Malaysia is ranked 21st
- Thailand is ranked 28th
- Indonesia is ranked 54th
- Vietnam is ranked 68th
1. Background of the Study
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1. Background of the Study
(iii) DPWH Plans
DPWH has various plans such as:
- Development of expressway network
- Development of ring roads in the Regional Growth Pole Cities
- Construction of Bypasses along inter-city roads
These plans are not necessarily implemented well for various reasons:
- No masterplan with project implementation priority
- Lack of proper traffic data, particularly OD data, for assessment of
proposed projects
- Lack of proper implementation schemes involving private sector’s
participation
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2. Objectives of the Study
Formulation of Development Strategy for High
Standard Highway Network
Formulation of High Standard Highway Masterplan
-Within 200 km radius of Metro Manila
-Metro Cebu
-Tagum – Davao – Gen. Santos Corridor
-Within 200 km radius of Metro Manila
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3. Study Area
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4. Study Schedule
Formulation of
Development Strategy for
HSH
Formulation of Masterplan for HSH
(5 months)
(9 months)
(15 months)
Final Report
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5. Organization to Carry-out the Study
DPWH
GRP
JICA
GOJ
JICA
GOJ
Counterpart
Team
Study
Team
Study
Team
Technical
Working
Group
Steering
Committee
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6. Meetings1
st S
H m
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TWG
me
etin
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IC/R
TWG
me
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2n
d S
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TWG
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IT/RTW
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TWG
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TWG
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TWG
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3rd
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TWG
me
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TWG
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PG/R
TWG
me
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TWG
me
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TWG
me
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Formulation of Development
Strategy for HSH Formulation of Masterpan for HSH Network
2009
4 5 6 7 8
2009 2010
9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
TWG
me
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4th
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me
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gDF/R
SC
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SC
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L E G E N D
SC: Steering Committee
TWG: Technical Working Group
SH: Stakeholders
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7. Study Methodology
7.1 Study Procedure
Review of Current Status
and Identification of Issues
Confirmation of Environmental and Social Conditions
Current Traffic Condition Surveys
Identification of Issues of Road Traffic
Prep. of Present OD Table
Formulation of Development Strategy for HSH
Pre
pa
ratio
n, P
rese
nta
tio
n a
nd
Dis
cu
ssio
n o
f IT
/R
Traffic Demand Forecast
Concept and Principal Policy for
Development of HSH
Pre
pa
ratio
n, P
rese
nta
tio
n a
nd
Dis
cu
ssio
n o
f IC
/R
(i) Formulation of Development Strategy for HSH
Formulation of Future Socio-Economic Framework
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7. Study Methodology
(ii) Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network
Study on Future Road Network
Identification of Major
Projects for HSH
Development
Traffic Assign-ment
Analysis of
Traffic Assignment Results
Study on Future Road Network
Preliminary Design
of Selected HSHs
Selection of Priority
Projects
Reassignment
of Traffic
Volume
Project Cost Estimate & Project
Implementation Schedule
Project Impl Schemes
and Financial Analysis
Project Impl
Schedule
Economic Analysis
Financial Analysis
Initial Envi.
Examinati
on (IEE)
Formulation of Basic Plan
for Road Development
including HSH
Pre
pa
ratio
n, P
rese
nta
tio
n a
nd
Dis
cu
ssio
n o
f P
R/R
Pre
pa
ratio
n, P
rese
nta
tio
n a
nd
Dis
cu
ssio
n o
f D
R/R
Study on Project
Impl Scheme
Basic Plan for Road Development & Identification of
HSH Network Development
Selection of Roads
Required for HSH
Project Cost
Estimate
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7. Study Methodology
(iii) Strenghtening of Institutional / Organization Capacity of
DPWH
(1) Strengthening of DPWH’s Organization
(2) Recommendation of Design Standard’s for HSH
Collaboration Work
with TWG and Strengthening of
Capability
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Recommen-dations
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7. Study Methodology
7.2 Formulation of Development Strategy for HSH
7.2.1 Review and Analysis of Current Status and Conditions and
Identification of Issues
1) Review of current Development Plans and Programs
2) Trend of Other Donor’s Aids
3) Natural and Environmental Conditions
4) Demographic and Economic Trend
5) Land Use Status
6) Major Transport Facilities and Transport Network
7) Road Conditions
8) Traffic Conditions
9) Budget and Administration Status
10)Status of O&M of road including Expressways
11)Review of Relevant Studies
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7. Study Methodology
7.2 Formulation of Development Strategy for HSH
7.2.2 Confirmation of Environmental and Social Conditions
1) Collection and review of existing reports, data and information
2) Features of study areas
3) Interviewing from stakeholders and support in stakeholder
meetings, if necessary
4) Recommendation in view of environment and social aspect in
preparation of development strategy
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7. Study Methodology
7.2 Formulation of Development Strategy for HSH
7.2.3 Traffic Condition Surveys (Traffic Surveys & Logistics Interview)
Survey Item Survey Time
Survey Stations*1)
Manila
(200km radius)
CebuDavao –
Gen. San Corridor
Total
(1)Traffic Count Survey
16-hour (6:00 – 20:00)(on a weekday)
30 12 16 58
24-hour (6:00–next 6:00)(on a weekday)
20 6 6 32
(2)Road Side OD Survey
12-hour (6:00 – 18:00)(on a week day)
20 6 6 32
(3)Travel Speed Survey
One time in the morning and evening each (on a weekday)
13 5 7 25
(4)W.T.P Survey
Purpose:To clarify the toll level accepted by users.Contents of the SurveyPersonal attribute; Willingness to pay a toll after expressway constructionTrip information (purpose, travel route, origin, departing time, destination, arriving time)
Traffic Surveys
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Logistics Interview Survey
Survey Item Target for Interview
(1) Port / Airport Interview Survey 6 airports (3 for Metro Manila 200-km sphere, 1 for Metro
Cebu, 2 for Mindanao)
10 ports (5 for Metro Manila 200-km sphere, 2 for Metro
Cebu, 3 for Mindanao)
(2) Logistics / Trucking
Companies Interview Survey
Metro Manila, Cebu city, Davao city, General Santos city
15 logistic companies, 15 trucking companies
(3) Truck OD Survey at Ports /
Airports
Truck OD Survey at Port / Airport
Trucks outgoings / incomings from / into airports and ports
(4) Eco-zones and Manufacturing
Companies Interview Survey
Interview Survey at Economic Zone
Interviewing from various companies located in special
economic zones
Manila 200-km sphere (Tarlac, Clark, Subic and Cavite
economic zones)
Cebu Econ-zones
Davao and Gen. Santos Eco-zones
7. Study Methodology
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DPWH Data
16 Hour Traffic Count
24 Hour Traffic Count / OD Survey
L E G E N D
C-OD-1
C-OD-2
C-OD-3
C-OD-4C-OD-5
C-OD-6
C-1
C-2
C-3C-4
C-5
C-6
201
202
203
204
Map Metro Cebu (1/2)
Traffic Survey Location
Map
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DPWH Data
16 Hour Traffic Count
24 Hour Traffic Count / OD Survey
C-7
C-8
C-9
C-10 C-11
C-12
C-13
C-14L E G E N D
210
209
208
207205
201
206
Traffic Survey Location
Map Metro Cebu (2/2)
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Route-2
Route-1
16 Hour Traffic Count
24 Hour Traffic Count / OD Survey
L E G E N D
C-OD-1
C-OD-2
C-OD-3
C-OD-4C-OD-5
C-OD-6
C-1
C-2
C-3C-4
C-5
C-6
Traffic Speed Suevey
DPWH Data
Metro Cebu (1/2)
Travel Speed Survey
Location Map
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Route-3
Route-5
Route-4
Route-3
Route-2
Route-1
24 Hour Traffic Count / OD Survey
C-7
C-8
C-9
C-10 C-11
C-12
C-13
C-14
L E G E N D
DPWH Data
16 Hour Traffic Count
Traffic Speed Suevey
Travel Speed Survey Location
Map Metro Cebu (2/2)
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Analysis of Results of Traffic Survey
Item of Survey Viewpoint of Analysis
Traffic Count Survey
• Share of traffic by vehicle type• Peak ratio and peak time
• Fluctuation of traffic by time• V/C & service level
Road side OD Survey
• OD Matrix for traffic passing survey points (part of OD Table)
• Socio-economic interdependence of cities
• Purpose of road use
Travel Speed Survey
• Travel speed of a section• Correlation between travel
speed and the extent of traffic congestion
• Causes of delay
WTP Survey• Road users’ acceptance to
pay toll• Toll level accepted by road
users
Freight OD Survey
• Service area of each port and airport
• Goods treated at each port and airport, and their OD
Interview Survey (1)
• Logistics system• Bottle necks in logistics• OD of goods treated
• Logistics generation points• Transport cost
Interview Survey(2)
•OD and route of material and processed goods
• Problems in terms of transport
Interview Survey (1) : interview to distributor and transport companyInterview Survey (2) : interview at special economic zone
7. Study MethodologySu
rve
y f
or
Log
istic
s
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7. Study Methodology
7.2.4 Preparation of Present OD Table
Comparison of Both Traffic
Volumes
Collection & Analysis of Socio-Economic Data
Roadside OD Survey
Travel Speed Survey
Road Inventory Survey
Traffic Count Survey
Known OD Q – V Curve Road Network
Zone Features(Population, GRDP,
etc.)Prediction Model
for OD Traffic Volume
Initial Value of Unknown OD
Roadside OD Survey
Total OD MatrixCorrection of Unknown OD
(Maximum Entropy Method) Traffic Assignment
Assigned Traffic Volume
Traffic Volume by Link
Completion
NO
YES
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7. Study Methodology
7.2.5 Formulation of Socio-economic Framework
Indicators for Socio-Economic Framework
•Population and Its Increase Rate
•GRDP and Its Increase Rate
•Industrial Structure and No. of Employees
•Productivity by Industry
•No. of Vehicle Registration
•Area by land use
(i) Target Year 2030
(ii) Intermediate Target Year 2020
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7. Study Methodology
7.2.6 Traffic Demand Forecast
Ste
p 1
:G
en
era
tio
n
& A
ttra
ctio
nSte
p 2
:D
istr
ibu
tio
nSte
p 3
:M
od
al S
plit
Ste
p 4
:Tr
aff
icA
ssig
nm
en
t
Present Socio -Economic
Indicators by zone
Present OD Matrix
Future Socio -Economic Indicators
by zone
Future Road Network
Generation and Attraction Model
Distribution Model
Modal Split Model
Traffic Assignment Model(Diversion Rate)
Forecast of Scale of Generation & Attraction by Zone
(No. of passengers & Loaded Volume)
Traffic Volume Distribution Forecast
Modal Split Traffic Volume Forecast
Traffic Assignment Forecast(No. of Vehicles by Vehicle
Type)
•No. of Average Passenger
•No. of Average Loaded Volume
L E G E N D
Data Input (Requirement for Input)Calculation ModelOutput
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7. Study Methodology
7.2.7 Identification of Problems/Issues on Road Traffic (1/2)
Approach 1: Comparison with Appropriate Status of Road Traffic
Economic ActivitiesIndustrial activity, job gaining activity, business activity
Social Activities
Access to public facilities
Access to daily and non-daily activities
Escape route during emergency evacuationsSafety and security
Environment
CO2 emissions
Noise and vibration
Air pollutantNatural park and green areas to be preserved
Urban Structure / Development Plan
Present urban structure and its future direction. Present and future development plan
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7. Study Methodology
7.2.7 Identification of Problems/Issues on Road Traffic (2/2)
Approach 2: Identification of Causes of Road Traffic Problems
Traffic
Excessive demand, Poor accessibility, Poor traffic flow caused by
mixing of local traffic and through traffic, Poor traffic flow caused by
defect of travel conditions, Mixture of pedestrians and vehicles
Road Network
Shortage of traffic capacity, Imbalance between demand and traffic
capacity, Inefficiency, Problems of road network from the view point of
functional hierarchy, Defect of pavement, Road maintenance
Traffic ManagementPoor traffic control, Inappropriate traffic regulation (mixture of through
traffic in the city center with local traffic)
Organization/SystemAuthority/power, Overlap of function, Complication, Weakening of
organization/system
Fund Delay of project progress due to shortage of investment fund on
transport sector, Shortage of procurement of private fund
Environment and
Social
Considerations
Land acquisition, Land price, Compensation cost, Regulation, System
Air pollutant, Noise, Vibration
Natural park, Restriction / Regulation
Others Traffic safety (accident prone spots, education, regulation)
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7. Study Methodology
7.2.8 Concept and Principal Policy for Development of High Standard
Highway
(i) Definition ( to be clearly established in the course of the Study)
Definition in the I/A
Roads providing smooth traffic flow with full access
control and/or limited access, including expressway as
well as primary arterial and bypass
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7. Study Methodology
7.2.8 Concept and Principal Policy for Development of High Standard
Highway
(ii) Image of High Standard Highway
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7. Study Methodology
7.2.9 Formulation of Development
Strategy for High Standard Highway
Preliminary Image for
Metro Cebu
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7. Study Methodology
7.3 Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network
7.3.1 Study on Future Road Network
Work Items for Study on Future Road Network
(1) Traffic Assignment: Traffic assignment (present and future OD) to
present road network is carried out.
(2) Analysis of Results of Traffic Assignment: With the results of traffic
assignment, traffic volume of each section, congestion degree
by section and through traffic share by section are analyzed.
(3) Study on Future Road Network: Considering the land use plan,
development plan and environment in the study areas, issues on
present road network are analyzed and principal policy is to be
established in planning of future road network.
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7. Study Methodology
7.3 Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network
7.3.2 Formulation of Overall Road Development Plan and
Identification of High Standard Highway Development Projects
Overall road development plan will be formulated. Based on
development strategy of high standard highway, routes to be
applied for high standard will be selected. Based on this plan,
major high standard highway development projects will be
identified. In the formulation of the overall road development
plan, road map showing road class and its function will be
prepared at the scale of 1/50,000.
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7. Study Methodology
7.3 Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network
7.3.3 Preliminary Design of High Standard Highway Development
Projects
Preliminary design for the high standard highway
development projects identified in the above will be carried
out including the road structures and necessary facilities.
Standard cross sections, preliminary plan and longitudinal
profile will be prepared with the scale of 1/10,000 topography
maps and pictures.
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7. Study Methodology
7.3 Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network
(i) Project Cost Estimate
-Construction Cost
-Land Acquisition Cost
-Compensation Cost for Resettlement
-Detailed Design / Construction Cost Supervision Cost
-Operation and Maintenance Cost
(ii) Preliminary Schedule for Project Implementation
7.3.4 Project Cost Estimate and Project Implementation Schedule
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7. Study Methodology
7.3 Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network
7.3.5 Economic Analysis
Economic Analysis
(1) Calculation of Benefit
Vehicle operating costs savings, time cost savings, maintenance cost savings
Such indirect benefits as benefits from regional development and benefits from reduction
of effects of traffic accidents, etc. will not be considered due to uncertainty of accuracy.
(2) Economic Cost
Economic cost will be calculated applying shadow rate and excluding taxes.
(3) Indicators for Evaluation
Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR), Benefit/Cost Ratio (B/C), Net Present Value (NPV)
(4) Sensitive Analysis
The following factors for the analysis will be considered to identify the factors having high
sensitivity to B/C.
-Construction Cost (variation rate: ±5%, ±10%, ±15%)
-Traffic Volume (variation rate: ±5%, ±10%, ±15%)
-Vehicle Travel Cost (variation rate: ±5%, ±10%)-Time Unit Cost of Passenger (1/2, 0, in case of gradual increase with increase in future
income level)
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7. Study Methodology
7.3 Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network
7.3.6 Initial Environmental Examination (IEE)
IEE will be carried out for each Project, identifying
a) Factors adversely affecting environmental and social
conditions, and preparation of an environmental check
list,
b) Measures to mitigate adverse impacts, including
alternatives of the project,
c) Whether the project requires EIA.
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7. Study Methodology
7.3 Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network
7.3.7 Study on Project Implementation Schemes and Financial
Analysis
(i) Project Implementation Schemes
Project implementation schemes including Public-Private Partnership
(PPP) will be studied. In this study, procedures so as to encourage
private sector’s participation in appropriate manner will be studied in
detail, which include method of securing financial resources as
burden sharing between public and private, constructing toll road
with financial assistance from donors, etc.
In this respect, financial feasibility study of the projects will be
conducted, appropriately estimating investment costs necessary for
each stage and maintenance cost. In particular, for fund and other
burden sharing between public and private, risk analysis will be
carried out and each responsibility will be made clear in transparent
manner.
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Option Role of Public Sector Role of Private Sector
Option 1 (BOT Method)
• R.O.W. acquisition • Construction, operation and maintenance
Option 2(Shadow Toll
Method)
• R.O.W. acquisition• Subsidy for shortage in toll
revenue
• Construction, operation and maintenance
Option 3(Subsidy Method)
• R.O.W. acquisition• Sharing of construction
cost
• Sharing of construction cost• Construction, operation and
maintenance
Option 4(Segment Dividing
Method)
• R.O.W. acquisition for entire road section
• Construction of a certain section
• Construction of remaining section
• Operation and maintenance for entire section
Option 5(Purchase Method)
• R.O.W. acquisition
• Construction
• Purchasing after completion of the project
• Operation and maintenance
Option 6(O & M Method)
• R.O.W. acquisition
• Construction
• Operation and maintenance
7. Study Methodology
7.3 Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network
Project Implementing Scheme by PPP
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7. Study Methodology
7.3 Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network
7.3.7 Study on Project Implementation Schemes and Financial
Analysis
(ii) Major Risks
Design and Construction Risks(Engineering risks related to construction)
Economic and Financial RisksFinancial factors (interest rate, exchange rate)Commitment of loan
Operating RisksRevenue risk in operationEngineering risk in operation
Indirect Risks due to Circumstances of Projects
Inevitable AccidentNatural disaster, armed conflict
Macro-economics RisksEconomic crisis, financial crisis
Risks in System and LegislationChange in environment law, assets and liabilities method and etc.
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7. Study Methodology
7.3 Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network
7.3.7 Study on Project Implementation Schemes and Financial
Analysis
(iii) Financial Analysis
Financial Statements
- Earning statement
- Balance sheet
- Cash Receipt and Disbursement
- Financial Internal Rate of Return
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7. Study Methodology
7.3 Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network
7.3.8 Selection of Priority Projects
Indicators for Selection of Priority Projects
Urgency Classifying into A, B, C, etc. corresponding to the
extent of urgency of each project based on the site
survey and discussion with GRP
Benefits Estimating and classifying such effects of benefits as
reduction of transport costs, reduction of consumer
prices, expansion of productivities, increase in tax
revenue by expansion of productivities.
Economic Viability Classifying each project corresponding to such as
range of EIRR and/or B/C.
Extent of Easiness for
Project Implementation
Classifying easiness in terms of resettlement,
environmental problems and legislations and system
within the scale of possible amount for investment.
Environment and Social
Impact Assessment
Classifying each project based on difficulty of issue of
ECC and the scale of impacts on natural and social
environment.
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7. Study Methodology
7.3 Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network
7.3.9 Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network summarizing all
studies, Masterplans will be formulated.
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7. Study Methodology
7.4 Strengthening of Organization of DPWH
After reviewing O & M system of roads and expressways administrated
by DPWH and analyzing problems and issues, the O & M system for high
standard highway will be recommended.
BOD of DPWH had issued “Design Guidelines, Criteria and Standards” as
present design standards in the Philippines. This covers road design,
bridge design, drainage facilities and so on, basically complying with
AASHTO Design standards. Design standards for high standard highway
will be recommended through reviewing DPWH standards and design
standards in Japan, U.S.A. and other countries.
(i) Strengthening of Management Capability
(ii) Recommendation on Design Standards for High Standard Highway
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Thank you for your attention