Th S d D i fThe Structure and Dynamics of Online Political DiscussionsOnline Political Discussions

Sandra Gonzalez‐Bailond l b il ii ksandra.gonzalezbailon@oii.ox.ac.uk

The Questions We Will Consider Today:

• Do online political discussions promote deliberation? (focus: structure of discussion threads)deliberation?  (focus: structure of discussion threads)

Gonzalez‐Bailon, Kaltenbrunner and Banchs (2010) “The Structure of Political Di i N t k AM d l f th A l i f O li D lib ti “Discussion Networks: A Model for the Analysis of Online Deliberation“, Journal of Information Technology, 25 (2): 230‐243

• Can we use online political discussions to track public opinion? (focus: content of discussions)p p (f f )

Gonzalez‐Bailon, Kaltenbrunner and Banchs (2010) “Emotional Reactions and the Pulse of Public Opinion: Measuring the Impact of Political Events on thethe Pulse of Public Opinion: Measuring the Impact of Political Events on the Sentiment of Online Discussions”, under review

Paper 1: Analysing Deliberationp y g

The Logic of Deliberation

• Based on social interactions, not on private decisions

• Superior form of collective decision making: (i) Decisions are more informed (plurality of views)( ) (p y )(ii) Decisions are more legitimate (all voices are 

represented) 

The Logic of Deliberation

• Based on social interactions, not on private decisions

• Superior form of collective decision making: (i) Decisions are more informed (plurality of views)( ) (p y )(ii) Decisions are more legitimate (all voices are 

represented) D lib i iDeliberation requires:

Multiple points of view and conflictive argumentsMultiple points of view and conflictive arguments

Do political discussions involve more points of view and p p fmore argumentation? 

The Analysis of Online Deliberation: Data

Data: September 2005 to August 2006

itlinux

politicsscience

yro

itlinux

politicsscience

yro

# posts (N=10016) # comments (N=2075085)

booksbsd

developersfeaturesgames

hardwareinterviews

it

booksbsd

developersfeaturesgames

hardwareinterviews

it

0 5 10 15 20 25

apacheappleask

backslashbooks

Hundreds

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

apacheapple

askbackslash

Thousands

itlinux

politicsscience

yro

# users (N=93636)

backslashbooks

bsddevelopers

featuresgames

hardwareinterviews

0 10 20 30 40 50

apacheapple

askbackslash

Thousands

Discussion Threads as Hierarchical Networks

Post

Layer 1

Post

Comment Comment

Layer 2

Layer 1 Comment

C t C t

Comment

C t

L 3

Layer 2 Comment

C C C

Comment Comment

CLayer 3 Comment Comment Comment Comment

Discussion Threads as Hierarchical Networks

Post

Layer 1

Post

Comment Comment

Layer 2

Layer 1 Comment

C t C t

Comment

C t d th

L 3

Layer 2 Comment

C C C

Comment Comment

C

depth

Layer 3 Comment Comment Comment Comment

width

Four Types of Discussion

max T IType II Type IType II

tion)

rg

umen

tat

Type IVType III

dept

h (a Type IVType III

max min width

( i )(representation)

Models of Decision Making (Who and What)

Ackerman, B., and J. S. Fishkin (2002) Deliberation Day. The Journal of Political Philosophy, v. 10, n. 2, p. 150. 

The Empirical Measurement of Deliberationp

  max T IT II Type IType II

tatio

n)

th (a

rgum

ent

Type IV Type III

max

dept

min max min width

(representation)

Classification of Discussions in Possibility Space  max

Type I Type II

atio

n)

pth

(arg

umen

ta

Type IV Type III

max

dep

min width

( t ti )(representation)

Additional Measures of Width and Depth

Width DepthWidth DepthMax # comments # nested levels

Total # comments  H‐index users

Total # use s H i dex co e tsTotal # users H‐index comments

Classification of Discussions in Possibility Space  max

Type I Type II

atio

n)

pth

(arg

umen

ta

Type IV Type III

max

dep

min width

( t ti )(representation)

ConclusionsDo political discussions involve more points of view and more argumentation?and more argumentation? 

Yes They reproduce important pre conditions forYes. They reproduce important pre‐conditions for deliberation to take place. 

Future research

Comparative analysis: do other online forums promote the same type of dynamics?promote the same type of dynamics? 

Paper 2: Analysing Public Opinionp y g p

The Importance of Public Opinionp p

• Public opinion: proxy to the way citizens u i opi io p o y o e ay i i eperceive political issues and react to current affairsaffairs

• S d P ll h i b hi d• Surveys and Polls – mechanism behind opinion tides? (focus: emotions)

What explains polarisation and volatility?p p y

Measuring the Emotional Content of Discussionsg

ValenceValence

A lArousal

Dominance

Bradley and Lang. 1999. ʺAffective norms for English words (ANEW) Technical report C‐1.ʺ The Center for Research in Psychophysiology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL.y p y gy, y , ,

Dodds and Danforth. 2009. ʺMeasuring the Happiness of Large‐Scale Written Expression: Songs, Blogs, and Presidents.ʺ Journal of Happiness Studies DOI: 10.1007/s10902‐009‐9150‐9.

Data: Usenet Political Discussions (1999‐2005)

4

6

8x 10000

0

2

09/1999 09/2000 09/2001 09/2002 09/2003 09/2004

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whitegunnews

l

warwhiteworldgunterrorist

warworldnews peoplewhite good timepeace gun death

warnewswhiteworld time

warnewstimeworldpeoplenewswar

peoplehateworldparty freedeathgoodmancrimehouse time

peoplewarblacktimehouse

terroristnews timepeoplehousegooddeathhatemandeadblackpeace truth free

hate house deadblack terrorist partyf ree man truth lie

o dpeoplegoodhatedeadmanhousepartydeathfreeblack lietruthgun torturet i t

peoplehatewhitesocialdeadgoodmanhousepartygoddeathfraudwin free

bl khouse timemoneyboyabortion flag

housepartyworldgoodcutdeathpower

lettergod terrorist gun black

powerhatemanfraud freetruthcrime

Discussions become unhappier over time...pp

Discussions become angrier over time...g

Discussions reflect higher vulnerability over time...g y

How Do Emotions Compare to Approval Rates?p pp

Do Emotions Help Predict Approval Rates?p pp

Do Emotions Help Predict Approval Rates?p pp

Conclusions

• Emotions help predict public opinion E o io e p p e i pu i opi io(politics is as much about passions as about reasons)reasons)

•A l i th t i ifi t ti l•Arousal is the most significant emotional dimension – does this also apply to other time windows?

Future Research

• Combine these two approaches: Do emotions o i e e e o app oa e o e o iohelp explain the growth of discussion threads?

• Validate approach across platforms and li i ti itilinguistic communities