The state of US Beer
Transcript of The state of US Beer
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And what are the biggest challenges?
Jim Watson, Senior Beverage Analyst
January 2020
The state of US Beer Photo: Cercle
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Putting US beer sales in context – it’s doing well!
Source: IRI, 2019
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Beer Wine Spirits Coffee Soft Drinks
YoY dollar sale growth in measured channels
2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
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Increase in beer demand globally driven by emerging markets
Source: Euromonitor, Canadean, Rabobank estimates
(2.0%)
(1.0%)
-
+1.0%
+2.0%
+3.0%
+4.0%
+5.0%
+6.0%
+7.0%
0
50
100
150
200
2004A 2006A 2008A 2010A 2012A 2014A 2016A 2018A 2020E 2022E
billion litre
Volume y-on-y change, RHS
Forecast beer consumption growth by regionWorldwide beer consumption is expected to grow further y-o-y change
Volume consumption CAGR 2018A-23E
Industry consolidation
(0.9)%
+1.2%
+1.5%
+1.4%
+1.0%
+1.1%
+3.2%+3.9%
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Top 12 movers in the beer industry (measured channels)
Source: IRI
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
MichelobUltra
ModeloEspecial
WhiteClaw
VarietyPack
CoronaPremier
WhiteClaw (allothers)
TrulyBerry Mix
Pack
WhiteClawBlackCherry
Truly (allothers)
NaturalLight
CoronaFamiliar
TrulyTropicalMix Pack
Smirnoff
Tota
l Dol
lar
Valu
e Add
ed
2016-19 absolute growth in dollar sales
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New challengers finding success across beverage categories…
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A look at where growth in coming from in non-alc
Bottled Water, 25%
Carbonates, 37%
Juice, 17%
RTD Coffee, 2%
RTD Tea, 7%
Energy Drinks,
8%
Sports Drinks, 4%
US non-alc bev $ share
Bottled Water, 40%
Carbonates, 23%
Juice, 7%
RTD Coffee, 6%
RTD Tea, 11%
Energy Drinks, 11%
Sports Drinks, 2%
US non-alc bev$ share of projected 2018-23 growth
Source: Euromonitor
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Top 12 movers in the beer industry – in the other direction
Source: IRI
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
Tota
l Dol
lar
Valu
e Lo
st
2016-19 absolute DECLINE in dollar sales
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Seltzer growth is explosive – and driving the beer category
Source: IRI
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2016 2017 2018 2019
Sal
es in
USD
m
Sales of top two hard seltzer brands in measured channels
Truly White Claw
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2019 2018 2017 2016
sale
s gr
owth
-y/
y
US Beer growth in measured channels
Total beer Total beer (excl. White Claw and Truly)
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Premiumization remains on track in alcohol
Source: NielsenSource: discus
Wine sales volume growth in 2018 (measured off-premise)Spirts volume growth in 2018
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Below $11 Above $11
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Value Premium High-endPremium
SuperPremium
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Overall beer pricing is good, but…
Source: IRI
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
2019 2018 2017 2016
YoY change in US beer pricing
Total Beer Total ABI ABI Acquired Craft
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What consolidation looks like across the beverage industry globally
Source: Euromonitor
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Bottled Water Beer Spirits Wine Carbonated SoftDrinks
Juice RTD Coffee Coffee
Percent of retail volume generated by top companies, by segment
Top 3 Top 10
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What coffee shows us about consolidation in the US vs the world
Source: Rabobank, leading coffee importer
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Large Roasters Medium Roasters Small Roasters
Consolidation among world coffee roasters
Percent of total volume Percent of total roasters
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Large Roasters Medium Roasters Small Roasters
Consolidation among US coffee roasters
Percent of total volume Percent of total roasters
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Beverage companies repositioning portfolios
Expansion into new categories
Divestitures of low-end brands
Acquisitions at a premium
Disruptors go mainstream
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Global landscape for low/no alc beers is very country specific
Source: Euromonitor
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%Percent of beer consumption at 3.5% ABV or below
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I can’t find too much sober-curiosity in the US data
Source: bw166
0
100
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600
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Ser
ving
s of
alc
ohol
per
yea
r fo
r LD
A c
onsu
mer
s
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Alcohol consumption is smoothing out
Past month use, among LDA adults
White Men
White Women
Black Men
Black Women
Hispanic Men
Hispanic Women
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Bas
e ye
ar p
reva
lenc
e of
Pas
t M
onth
Alc
ohol
Use
(20
10)
Shift in prevelance of past-month alcohol use, 2010-2018
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E-commerce sales in the US are a big opportunity for all alcohol segments
22%Combined Total Alcohol Ecommerce Sales in US
2.6bn
2019
USD
SpiritsUSD 230m
WineUSD 2.2bn
BeerUSD 155m
2019 Sales By Category 2019 YOY Growth
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Thank you for listening!
Reach out to me with any questions/comments at:
And check out our podcast -Liquid Assetsto learn more about what is happening across the entire beverage industry