The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018...

115
The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan Twitter @CDDEP

Transcript of The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018...

Page 1: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

The State of the World’s Antibiotics in

2018

Ella Pringle LectureRoyal College of Physicians of Edinburgh

Ramanan LaxminarayanTwitter @CDDEP

Page 2: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 3: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan
Page 4: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 5: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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850.-$, %#',1:'.(/#%012/3 4'" ;<=>Trends in antimicrobial resistance in bloodstream infection isolates at a large urban hospital in Malawi

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Northern Regions

Free State

Western and Northern Cape

Eastern Cape

KwaZulu-Natal

Northern Regions

Free State

Western and Northern Cape

Eastern Cape

KwaZulu-Natal

2011 2012

2013 2014

Resistance rate

No data

Northern Regions

Free State

Western and Northern Cape

Eastern Cape

KwaZulu-Natal

Northern Regions

Free State

Western and Northern Cape

Eastern Cape

KwaZulu-Natal

15-25% 26-32% 33-36% 37-40% 41-43%

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Page 25: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 28: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 30: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

Absolute risk reduction (ARR) of infection with antibiotic prophylaxis in common surgical procedures and blood cancer chemotherapy in the

USA

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Number of additional infections per year in the USA under a 30% decreased efficacy of antibiotic prophylaxis

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Antibiotic consumption is increasing in developing countries...

Source: Based on data obtained under license from IMS Health MIDAS ™ (January 2005-December 2010); IMS Health Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.

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Page 50: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

Antibiotic use per capita by income in selected countries, 2010

Source: Van Boeckel et al. 2014 (based on IMS MIDAS) and World Bank 2015

Page 51: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

Carbapenem retail sales in selected countries, 2005–2010 (per 1,000 population)

Source: Laxminarayan et al. 2013 (based on IMS MIDAS)

*An IMS grouping of Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Republic of the Congo, Senegal, and

Togo

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Page 54: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

Carbapenem consumption in the hospital sector in selected European countries, 1997–2013

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Hospital use of carbapenems is rapidly growing

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Page 71: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan
Page 72: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 73: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 74: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan
Page 75: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 76: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 78: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 79: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 80: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan
Page 81: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan
Page 82: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 83: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 84: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 85: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 86: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 87: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 88: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan
Page 89: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 90: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

Antibiotic consumption in livestock, top ten countries 2010–2030 (projected for 2030)

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Page 91: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 92: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 93: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 94: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 95: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 96: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 97: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Developed world cost per course of therapy

De

ve

lop

ed

wo

rld

De

ve

lop

ing

wo

rld

Supplier

Pfizer

GSK

Ortho-McNeill

Bayer

Roche

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Roche

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IDA

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Oscient

various

Branded product only

Generic product available

Price/full course of therapy

Notes: *Chloramphenicol is not available in developed world—price is therefore estimated. †Ceftriaxone and ciprofloxacin may be available in some tertiary settings in developing world.Source: The Medical Letter (2006), Disease control priorities in developing countries, Lancet (2006), Expert

interviews.

$1,500

$1,480

$666.80

$223.30

$16

$11

$5*

$3.60

$103

$39

$121

$145

$144.8

Page 98: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

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Page 99: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 100: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan
Page 101: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 102: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 103: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 104: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 105: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 106: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan
Page 107: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 108: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan
Page 109: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan
Page 110: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan
Page 111: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan
Page 112: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan
Page 113: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Page 114: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan
Page 115: The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 · The State of the World’s Antibiotics in 2018 Ella Pringle Lecture Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Ramanan Laxminarayan

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Thank you