The state of the irish nation 2014 (slideshare)
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Transcript of The state of the irish nation 2014 (slideshare)
STATE OF THE IRISH NATION 2014
15th December 2014 1
CONTENTS
•The economy
•The consumer
•The advertising market
•Changing attitudes
2
THE ECONOMY
•The economy has performed well in 2014, with concrete evidence that Ireland has weathered the worse of the recession.
•All headline KPI’s are improving. Employment continues to grow steadily. The construction, services and manufacturing sector are all performing better.
•However the worsening state of the global economy is a major threat to Ireland’s continuing recovery in 2015
4
The recovery in the Irish economy has gained momentum and is broadening, though the underlying strength of the economy is less than that suggested by the recent exceptionally buoyant Quarterly National Accounts data. However, while the latest year-on-year headline growth rate overstates the scale of the improvement in economic performance, the evidence from a range of other data indicates that the recovery has strengthened and is becoming more balanced. Encouragingly, the domestic economic recovery has become more broad-based, supported by gradually improving employment and incomes. Against this background, consumer spending is growing and, allied to strong growth in investment spending, domestic demand is set to contribute positively to growth in 2014, for the first time since the downturn
Patrick Honohan, Governor, Central Bank of Ireland, Oct 2014
THE TIDE IS COMING IN
3
The Irish economy is forecast to grow by 4.5% in 2014 and 3.4% in 2015
-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789
10
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ireland GDP Growth Forecasts
5
Source: Central Bank of Ireland 2014
Consumer and Business Confidence
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Jan
-04
May
-04
Sep
-04
Jan
-05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan
-06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan
-07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan
-08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan
-09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan
-10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan
-11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan
-12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan
-13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan
-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Consumer Sentiment Index
6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Business Confidence Index
Consumer and business confidence have grown substantially since the middle of 2013. While the fundaments of the Irish economy remain sound, should the global economy slip back into recession in 2015, Ireland will be challenged to maintain growth
Source: KBC/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Survey KBC/Chartered Accountants Ireland Business Confidence
Oct-14Sep-14Aug-14Jul-14Jun-14May-14Apr-14Mar-14Feb-14Jan-14Dec-13Nov-13Oct-13Sep-13Aug-13Jul-13Jun-13May-13Apr-13Mar-13
7
Ireland has the fastest growing economy in Europe in 2014
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Ger
man
y
Bel
giu
m
Esto
nia
Irel
and
Gre
ece
Spai
n
Fran
ce
Ital
y
Cyp
rus
Latv
ia
Lith
uan
ia
Luxe
mb
ou
rg
Mal
ta
Net
her
lan
ds
Au
stri
a
Po
rtu
gal
Slo
ven
ia
Slo
vaki
a
Fin
lan
d
UK
EU
8
8
•
•
•
11
12
13
Source: CSO
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-12
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-13
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
Ireland Rate of Unemployment
14
Source: CSO 2014 / Eurostat
National
15
National
Source: CSO 2014
16
Consumer Confidence is strong
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
17
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Jan
-04
May
-04
Sep
-04
Jan
-05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan
-06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan
-07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan
-08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan
-09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan
-10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan
-11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan
-12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan
-13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan
-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
•
•
•
•
19
20
Press TV Outdoor Radio Cinema
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
•
•
•
22
23
Source: TGI 2014