The state of 4G pricing 1H2019 -...

© REWHEEL 2019 all rights reserved | research.rewheel.fi | [email protected] | +358 44 203 2339

The state of 4G pricing 1H2019 What is wrong with competition in the Canadian, Japanese and US markets?

Rewheel research PRO study, Digital Fuel Monitor 11th release - April 2019

Gigabyte prices in 4-MNO markets continue to fall faster than in 3-MNO markets

As we have reported1 earlier gigabyte prices in 4-MNO markets have been falling faster than in 3-MNO markets.

By April 2019 the gap between the median gigabyte price of 4G smartphone plans in 3-MNO versus 4-MNO markets widened further to 113%. It was 81% during October 2018 and 55% a year ago in April 2018.

What is wrong with competition in the Canadian, Japanese and US markets?

Gigabyte prices in the Canadian, Japanese and US markets are a universe apart from prices in 4-MNO competitive large European markets or from the ultra-competitive Israeli 5-MNO market, as seen in the chart below.

The median smartphone plan gigabyte price in Canada was 24 times higher while in Japan and the US was 15 times higher than median prices in 4-MNO competitive large European markets.

Key market developments

Italian gigabyte prices continue to fall off a cliff following Iliad’s seismic launch as the new 4th MNO. The country median gigabyte price was down 56% compared to October 2018 and 87% compared to April 2018.

Dutch gigabyte prices have stopped falling after the unconditional approval of the T-Mobile and Tele2 4 to 3 merger.

1http://research.rewheel.fi/downloads/GB_prices_4_3_consolidated_vs_4MNO_markets_2013_2018_PUBLIC.pdf

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Country median gigabyte price in EU28 & OECD markets - April 2019Fully allocated country median gigabyte price of 4G smartphone plans with at least 1,000 minutes and 3Mbit/s for HD video

Fully allocated GB price: tariff retail monthly price (incl. VAT) divided by included gigabyte allowance. 3-MNO markets (25 countries), 4-MNO markets (16) Median price among all eligible plans logged in the database for country or group of countries. Unlimited plans were assinged 500 GB finite volume.

Prices: April 2019research.rewheel.fi ©

Gigabyte prices fall faster in 4-MNO markets!The median gigabyte price in 3-MNO markets is 113% higher than in 4-MNO markets (was 81% higher in 2H2018 and 55% higher in 1H2018)

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4G gigabyte prices in Canada, Japan and US vs. competitive EU 4-MNO markets - April 2019Fully allocated gigabyte price of 4G smartphone plans with at least 1,000 minutes and 3Mbit/s for HD video and country median

Fully allocated gigabyte price: tariff retail monthly price (incl. VAT) divided by included gigabyte allowance.Country median: median among all eligible plans included in the database and which are shown in this chart. Unlimited plans were assinged a finite volume of 500 GB. Plans where operators could throttled speed below 3 MBps at a defined volume (e.g. US) were not considered unlimited plans. Prices: April 2019, research.rewheel.fi ©

Canada €7.3/GB

Japan €4.6/GB United States €4.5/GB

EU 4-MNO large market€.0.35/GB

EU 4-MNOlarge market€.0.25/GB

Israel 5-MNOs€.0.20/GB


researchRewheel

http://research.rewheel.fi/downloads/GB_prices_4_3_consolidated_vs_4MNO_markets_2013_2018_PUBLIC.pdf

The state of 4G pricing, April 2019 – Digital Fuel Monitor 11th release 1H2019 2

© REWHEEL 2019 all rights reserved | research.rewheel.fi | [email protected] | +358 44 203 2339 |

How many gigabytes 30 EUR buys in 4G smartphone plans?

By April 2019 more than 50 operators have launched 4G smartphone plans with truly2 unlimited mobile data volume in 23 out of 41 EU28 & OECD markets.

How many 4G gigabytes €5, €10, €15, €20, €25, €30, €40, €50, €60, €70 and €80 could buy in EU and OECD markets on smartphone plans?

2According to the DFMonitor methodology truly unlimited mobile data volume plans are plans without a named finite volume after which the speed is throttle below 3

Mbps or where the traffic is de-prioritized e.g. US unlimited volume plans

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How many 4G gigabytes 30 EUR buys in EU28 & OECD - April 20194G smartphone plan with at least 1,000 mins & 3Mbit/s speed for HD video per country that for 30 EUR or less includes the most GB

Unlimited volume plans

Unlimited volume plans were assinged 500 GB finite volume. Operator main, sub-brands and MVNOs included. Prices: April 2019, research.rewheel.fi ©

What is wrong with competition in the Canadian, Japanese and US markets? 30 EUR (≈ 45 CAD, 3800 YEN, 34 USD) buys consumers only 4, 9 and 12 gigabytes respectively!

EU28 OECD Country code Country name GB for €5 GB for €10 GB for €15 GB for €20 GB for €25 GB for €30 GB for €40 GB for €50 GB for €60 GB for €70 GB for €80

Country 10 30 30 40 40 40 40 40 40 40

Country 0 10 20 30 40 60 60 60 60 100

Country 0 0 0 5 7 25 25 25 25 25

Country 0 3 7 23 28 46 Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited

Switzerland 0 0 0 10 10 Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited

Country 0 0 15 30 35 Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited

Country 0 0 0 1 2 10 20 20 22 22


Country 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 6 15

Country 0 60 60 100 100 100 100 Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited

Country 0 0 0 10 Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited

Country 0 0 0 0 1 7 7 20 20 20

Country 0 0 0 0 40 60 60 60 60 60

Country 15 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100





Country 0 4 Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited


Country 0 1 5 Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited


Finland 0 0 0 4 4 Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited

Country 0 0 1 3 9 21 21 50 50 50


Country 0 0 0 0 5 12 30 30 30 40

Country 0 0 3 8 12 25 50 50 50 50

Country 0 0 0 3 5 10 10 30 32 40

Country 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50


Country 0 20 50 60 120 140 140 140 140 140


Country 3 15 25 25 25 40 40 50 50 50


Country 0 4 10 20 30 100 100 150 200 200


Country 0 1 10 10 15 22 25 34 35 50



Country 0 3 10 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

Country 0 0 0 1 1 8 13 18 23 23

How many gigabytes consumers could buy in 4G smartphone plans with at least 1,000 mins and at least 3Mbps for HD video in EU28 & OECD markets? - April 2019



Gigabyte prices in mobile and wireless home broadband plans

US and Canadian median mobile broadband gigabyte prices were 6 times higher than the median price in OECD markets and 10 times higher than the median price in EU28 markets.

Japanese consumers paid nearly 5 times more than an average European for mobile broadband.

40 EUR (≈60 CAD, 5063 YEN, 45 USD) bought US, Canadian and Japanese consumers the least mobile broadband gigabytes among all 41 EU28 & OECD markets.

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Country median gigabyte price in EU28 & OECD markets - April 2019Fully allocated country median gigabyte price of 4G mobile & wireless home broadband plans with at least 3Mbit/s for HD video


Fully allocated GB price: tariff retail monthly price (incl. VAT) divided by included gigabyte allowance.Median price among all eligible plans logged in the database for country or group of countries. Unlimited plans were assinged 1000 GB finite volume.

US and Canadian median mobile broadband gigabyte prices are 6 times higher than the median price in OECD markets and 10 times higher than the median price in EU28 markets! Japanese consumers pay nearly 5 times more than an average European for mobile broadband.

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How many 4G gigabytes 30 EUR buys in EU28 & OECD - April 20194G mobile or wireless home broadband plan with at least 3Mbit/s speed for HD video per country that for 30 EUR or less includes most GB




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How many 4G gigabytes 40 EUR buys in EU28 & OECD - April 20194G mobile or wireless home broadband plan with at least 3Mbit/s speed for HD video per country that for 40 EUR or less includes most GB






How many 4G gigabytes €5, €10, €15, €20, €25, €30, €40, €50, €60, €70 and €80 could buy in EU and OECD markets on mobile broadband and wireless home broadband plans?

EU28 OECD Country code Country name GB for €5 GB for €10 GB for €15 GB for €20 GB for €25 GB for €30 GB for €40 GB for €50 GB for €60 GB for €70 GB for €80

Country 0 2 2 2 6 10 50 100 100 100

Country 0 3 25 25 25 200 200 500 500 500

Country 1 2 15 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Country 0 0 2 2 2 13 18 18 25 30


Switzerland 0 0 0 Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited


Country 0 1 2 2 100 100 100 100 100 100

Finland 0 0 0 Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited

Country 0 0 4 60 60 60 100 100 100 100

Country 1 3 6 30 30 100 200 200 200 200

Country 3 6 25 50 100 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000

Country 20 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


Country 0 0 5 30 30 30 40 40 40 40

Country 0 0 0 4 4 60 60 60 60 60

Country 0 0 1 5 5 25 50 150 150 Unlimited


Country 1 5 10 60 150 150 150 150 150 150

Country 0 0 15 25 25 750 750 750 750 750

Country 5 15 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Country 10 20 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


Country 0 60 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

Country 0 0 3 6 10 20 30 50 50 50



Country 0 2 2 15 15 100 100 100 100 100


Country 0 2 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


Country 0 0 7 7 15 50 100 300 300 300

Country 0 1 1 3 60 240 240 300 300 300


Country 0 0 5 5 30 30 30 30 30 30


Country 1 Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited

Country 0 2 5 20 20 50 100 100 100 300

Country 0 10 12 12 22 22 350 350 350 350

Country 1 5 20 20 100 200 800 800 800 800


How many gigabytes consumers could buy in 4G mobile broadband or wireless home broadband plans with at least 3Mbps for HD video in EU28 & OECD markets? - April 2019



The country median gigabyte price while it is an important price metric it is not the only price metric that matters. The price of entry level plans (e.g. 20 GB) or how many gigabytes 20 EUR buys determines a market’s affordability.

Gigabyte prices are even higher in the United States and Japan in mass market affordable plans that cost 30 EUR or less (≈45 CAD, 3800 YEN, 34 USD) compared to expensive plans that packed more gigabytes, hurting the most vulnerable consumers. In competitive EU 4-MNO markets consumers enjoy low gigabyte prices even in very affordable plans that cost €20 or less. In Canada we found only three plans that cost 30 EUR or less in April 2019.

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€ 27

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Country lowest price for 4G smartphone plan with at least 20 gigabytes - April 2019Country lowest price for a 4G smartphone plan with at least 1,000 minutes, 20 gigabytes and 3Mbit/s for HD video

Tariff retail monthly price (incl. VAT). 3-MNO markets (25 countries), 4-MNO markets (16) Grey and orange bars depict median price among 3-MNO and 4-MNO country minimum prices.


Monthly plan prices for 20 GB smartphone plans are in average 59% more expensive in 3-MNO vs. 4-MNO markets.The Canadian and US are outlier 4-MNO markets!

GB prices are lowest in Finland because smartphone plans pack unlimited volume. However, Finns must pay a minimum of 27 EUR per month to buy a 4G plan that supports HD video streaming, hence in that respect Finland behaves like a typical 3-MNO market where monthly prices are considerably higher.

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How many 4G gigabytes 20 EUR buys in EU28 & OECD - April 20194G smartphone plan with at least 1,000 mins & 3Mbit/s speed for HD video per country that for 20 EUR or less includes the most GB


GB prices are lowest in Finland because smartphone plans pack unlimited volume. However, 20 EUR only buys a 4G smartphone plan with 4 gigabytes, hence in that respect Finland behaves like a typical 3-MNO market where monthly prices are considerably higher.

Consumers buy 7x less gigabytes in 3-MNO markets when they spend 20 EUR than in 4-MNO markets.The Canadian and US are outlier 4-MNO markets!

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4G gigabyte prices in Canada, Japan and US vs. competitive EU 4-MNO markets - April 2019Fully allocated gigabyte price of 4G smartphone plans with at least 1,000 minutes and 3Mbit/s for HD video that cost 30 EUR or less

Fully allocated gigabyte price: tariff retail monthly price (incl. VAT) divided by included gigabyte allowance.Country median: median among all eligible plans included in the database and which are shown in this chart. Unlimited plans were assinged a finite volume of 500 GB. Plans where operators could throttled speed below 3 MBps at a defined volume (e.g. US) were not considered unlimited plans. Prices: April 2019, research.rewheel.fi ©

Canada €6.7/GBJapan €7.3/GB

United States €9.6/GB

Large EU 4-MNO market €.0.31/GB Israel 5-MNOs €.0.20/GB


Large EU 4-MNO market €.0.25/GB



Context Rewheel’s Digital Fuel Monitor bi-annual releases have been tracking mobile data prices in the EU28 & OECD mobile markets

since 2014. In this Digital Fuel Monitor 11th release 1H2019 we tracked and analysed the state of 4G pricing during the first half of

2019 (April 2019) and reported the main price developments compared to the second half of 2018 (October 2018) and as well

compared to the first half of 2018 (April 2018).

As with every release, in this 11th release we have collected and analysed thousands of eligible smartphone, mobile broadband

and wireless home broadband plans suitable for fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution from 41 markets in accordance with Digital

Fuel Monitor’s methodology3.

In this 11th release we analysed the gigabyte prices and ranked the EU28 & OECD countries using the maximum gigabytes for 30

EUR price metric, as we have done since 2016. Similarly, to the 10th release in this 11th release we have also ranked the EU28 &

OECD countries using the maximum gigabytes that €5, €10, €15, €20, €25, €30, €40, €50, €60, €70 and €80 could buy and as well

using the fully allocated country median gigabyte price.

In earlier releases, when calculating the fully allocated gigabyte price per country or per operator we assigned to plans with truly

unlimited volume a finite volume that was determined by the maximum finite gigabyte volume that 30 EUR bought in any of the

EU28 & OECD countries. In DFMonitor’s 8th release 2H2017 the finite volume assigned in smartphone plans with unlimited volume

was 100 gigabytes.

In DFMonitor’s 9th release 1H2018 the finite volume assigned in smartphone plans with unlimited volume was 200 gigabytes. 200

gigabyte volume was the maximum finite gigabyte volume that 80 EUR bought across the 41 markets. The reason for this change

was the fact that while 30 EUR bought during April 2018 at most a finite volume of 120 gigabytes in smartphone plans across all

EU28 & OECD countries 80 EUR bought a higher finite volume of 200 gigabytes. Hence, if we were to stick to the 30 EUR rule, we

would have created an artefact whereby truly unlimited volume plans that cost considerably less than 80 EUR (e.g. 50 EUR) could

end up having a higher fully allocated gigabyte price than more expensive plans with a large finite volume. This rule change ensured

that cheaper plans with a truly (i.e. 3 Mbps speed at all time for HD video) unlimited volume are always ranked higher than more

expensive plans with large finite gigabyte volumes.

In the 10th release 2H2018 we assigned to plans with unlimited volume the maximum finite gigabyte volume that 80 EUR bought

which was 250 gigabytes. We applied the same principle for mobile broadband and/or wireless home broadband plans. 1000

gigabyte volume was the maximum finite gigabyte volume that 80 EUR bought and was the finite volume we assigned to both

unlimited volume mobile broadband and wireless home broadband plans.

In this 11th release 1H2019 we assigned to smartphone plans with truly unlimited volume the maximum finite gigabyte volume that

80 EUR bought which was 500 gigabytes. Oister a sub-brand of Hutchison-3 the no.4 operator in Denmark sold a smartphone plan

with 500 gigabytes for 129 DKK ≈ 17 EUR as seen in the screenshot below. 1000 gigabyte volume was the maximum finite gigabyte

volume that 80 EUR bought in mobile broadband or wireless home broadband plans. Oister sold for 220 DKK ≈ 29 EUR a mobile

broadband plan with 1000 gigabytes.

3http://research.rewheel.fi/downloads/Methodology_DFMonitor_11th_release_1H2019.pdf



In this 11th release any plan that was marketed as ‘unlimited’ where the operator named a finite volume and reserved the right to

throttle the speed below 3 Mbps or deprioritize the traffic, has been designated as a finite volume plan with a volume equal to the

named de-prioritization/throttling volume (e.g. 22, 32, 35, 50 or 75 GB for US operator unlimited plans). Unlimited plans in Digital

Fuel Monitor 11th 1H2019 release are plans without a named finite volume and a 4G speed of at least 3 Mbps at all times. TDC,

Telenor and Telia in Denmark sold smartphone plans with unlimited volume and a fair usage limit of 1000 gigabytes (one thousand).

These plans were considered unlimited plans in our methodology due to their extremely high (practically unlimited for normal use)

fair usage limit.



Table of Contents

1 4G smartphone plans with at least 1,000 minutes and 3 Mbps speed for HD video ..................................... 10

1.1 Low-end pricing points − how many 4G gigabytes €5, €10 and €15 buys? ...................................................................... 13

1.2 Mid-range pricing points − how many 4G gigabytes €20, €25 and €30 buys? .................................................................. 15

1.3 High-end pricing points − how many 4G gigabytes €40, €50, €60, €70 and €80 buys? ................................................... 18

1.4 Country median gigabyte prices ....................................................................................................................................... 20

2 4G mobile broadband and wireless home broadband plans with at least 3 Mbps speed for HD video ..... 23

2.1 Low end pricing points − how many 4G gigabytes €5, €10 and €15 buys? ...................................................................... 24

2.2 Mid-range pricing points − how many 4G gigabytes €20, €25 and €30 buys? .................................................................. 25

2.3 High-end pricing points − how many 4G gigabytes €40, €50, €60, €70 and €80 buys? ................................................... 26

2.4 Country median gigabyte price ......................................................................................................................................... 28

3 What is wrong with competition in the Canadian, Japanese and US markets? ............................................ 31

3.1 Details of 4G smartphone plans in Canada, Japan, United States, France, Italy and Israel ............................................. 33

4 Price developments in the 4 to 3 consolidated Dutch market ......................................................................... 36

4.1 After the controversial 4 to 3 merger approval gigabyte prices have stopped falling in the Netherlands .......................... 36

4.2 Prices in the Dutch 4 to 3 consolidated market - October 2018 vs. April 2019 ................................................................. 37



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Recent research reports

4G prices in Germany versus the UK, France and Italy – a universe apart!

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2019_feb_pro_4G_prices_germany_uk_france_italy/

4G prices as a function market concentration, no. of MNOs, subscriber share, position, group affiliation and country general price level

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2019_jan_pro_4G_prices_as_a_function_of/

liad’s 4th MNO venture into Italy – Will it pay off?

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2019_jan_pro_iliad_italy/

T-Mobile and Tele2 4 to 3 mobile merger in the Netherlands – Competition concerns, efficiencies and effective remedies

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2018_nov_pro_tele2_t-mobile_nl/

The state of 4G pricing – 2H2018 – Digital Fuel Monitor 10th release

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2018_oct_pro_2h2018_release/

Capacity utilization and fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution potential with existing macro site grids – 2017

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2018_sep_pro_capacity/

The 4 to 3 consolidation effect – Ahead of the Commission’s merger ruling Tele2 increased prices in the Netherlands

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2018_july_pro_T-mobile-Tele2_Netherlands/


http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2018_may_pro_1h2018_release/

Gigabyte price development in 4 to 3 consolidated versus 4-MNO European markets – September 2013 to March 2018

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2018_apr_pro_4to3_consolidation_vs_4MNO/


http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2017_nov_pro_2h2017_release/

Unlimited mobile data and near zero marginal cost – a paradigm shift in telco business models

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2017_sep_pro_near_zero_marginal_cost/

O2 – Ready to disrupt the German tight oligopoly market

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2017_apr_pro_o2_germany_turnaround/

Capacity utilization and fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution potential – A study of 64 European operators

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2017_mar_pro_network_utilisation_mimo/

Effective structural remedies for Hutchison-WIND 4 to 3 Italian mobile merger

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2016_sept_premium_italy_hutch_wind_merger/

Telenor Denmark – Turnaround strategy

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2016_apr_premium_telenor_denmark_turnaround/

For further research reports visit research.rewheel.fi To learn more about our consultancy’s profile visit www.rewheel.fi or please

contact us at [email protected] or +358442032339.

http://research.rewheel.fi/networkeconomics/

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2017_sep_pro_near_zero_marginal_cost/

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2017_apr_pro_o2_germany_turnaround/

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2017_mar_pro_network_utilisation_mimo/

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2016_sept_premium_italy_hutch_wind_merger/

http://research.rewheel.fi/insights/2016_apr_premium_telenor_denmark_turnaround/

http://research.rewheel.fi/

The state of 4G pricing 1H2019 -...

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