The South Pacific Sea Level and

Climate Monitoring Project(SPSLCMP)

Developing into the future

Geoff CraneAustralian Tsunami Warning System

Development TeamBureau of Meteorology

Melbourne/Brisbane

Geoff CraneMeteorologistAustralian Bureau of Meteorology

National Manager Tsunami Warning Services – now Ocean Services Section Weather and Ocean Services Branch Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Warning Systems Specialist – ATWS Project 2005-2010Regional Director NSW 2004-2005Deputy Regional Director Qld 1989-2003Head – Brisbane TCWC 1977-1989WMO consultant – established RA V TCC SP 1984-1986

Chair of WG 5 (Warning Systems) (2005-2010)UNESCO IOC ICG/IOTWS IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic CommissionICG Intergovernmental Coordination GroupIOTWS Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System

WG 1 SeismologyWG 2 Sea level monitoringWG 3 Risk assessmentWG 4 Tsunami scenario modellingWG 5 Tsunami Warning SystemsWG 6 Outreach – public education and awareness 

Australian Government intends to continuethe SPSLCMP - details being discussed.

Phase 4 formally ends 31 December 2010but likely to be extended depending on progress on formulating Phase 5.

Phase 5 is likely to resemble the sea level monitoring and related data/tidal services provided by Phase 4.

SPSLCMP

It is expected that some synergies would be sought with other regional projects funded by AusAID, e.g. Pacific Island Climate Prediction Project (PI-CPP) but that would be unlikely to impact ongoing networkoperations and derived services.

A regional stakeholders meeting, involving RMSDs and probably Lands & Survey people, will be held as part of the Phase 5 planning.

Dates not certain although possibly 8-10 November.

The refurbishment of the sea level observing network (12+1 stations) is committed and funded and is progressing. Will be implemented over the next 2 years.

The additional station (Suva) is to be designated as a training site for the project and provide ongoing maintenance skill building in the region in the longer term.

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Development of Tsunami Warningsfor Australia and the Indian Ocean

Geoff Crane National Manager Tsunami Warning Services

Australian Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne / Brisbane

Replacement of some sea level monitoring stations and a few additional stations

Installation of real time communications

Further improvement to comms required withinthe next 12 months – change to frequencies

Synergies between the ATWS Projectand the SPSLCMP

Installation of tsunameter network

Sea level monitoring stations – 42 operating, 1 not operating (Port Stanvac, SA)

DEEP OCEAN TSUNAMETERS - 2 in IO, 2 in Coral Sea, 2 in Tasman Sea, 1 demo

TsunametersLeading edge technology. Verysensitive sensors – detect 2cmchange in 5km depth.

Operate in harsh environment.Extraordinary challenge tokeep the network operating.

Provide very good signal of the tsunami but requireexpert interpretation.

They are part of an integratedsystem and augment info fromother sources.

Recent critical report in USpress about unreliability.

XXX

X

X

X

Non-op on14-10-2010

X

Others - allunserviceable

Raleigh waves (seismic)

Positive tsunami arrived maybe a few minutes before

predicted arrival time

0.12 m crest to trough0.06 m amplitude

0523UTC

How to use Tsunameter information

Cannot translate directly to a coastal amplitudeMust compare with model scenario amplitude at the tsunameter site

to determine tsunamigenic efficiencyThen modify model scenario predictions along the coast

Why can’t we simply use Green’s Law to determine coastal amplitude?

Assumes uniform very gentle slope so no reflected energy.

Reflectedenergy

Transmitted energy

5km

1km

Need to consider effects of Continental Shelf.

1 Prior to the earthquake The lower (subducting) plate drags down against the upper (over-riding) plate, causing it to bend down at the toe and to flex upwards further along.

2 The earthquake Increasing stress causes the plate boundary to rupture and the upper plate to rebound to its initial unflexed position, displacing the sea surface both up and down.

3 10 minutes after the earthquakeThe displaced sea surface propagates outward left as a positive tsunami (leading crest) and right as a negative tsunami (leading trough).

+veLeadingcrest

- ve Leadingtrough

from: „Surviving a tsunami“,U.S. Geological Survey, 1999

Sea way out

The IOTMag 9.2Dec 2004

Sea right in

The IOTMag 9.2Dec 2004

Scenario for Macran Trench event Mw 9.0

Scenario for Sumatra Trench event Mw 8.5

The Chile Tsunami27 Feb 2010

Mag 8.8Main focus was

to the NW

Geoff CraneBureau of Meteorology

Melbourne/Brisbane