The Social and Economic Impacts of the Ebola

Virus Disease in Africa

Implications for Africa’s Integration and Transformation

The need for an assessment

• Meaningful full assessment can only be done once the outbreak is contained

• The assessment shall

• Contribute to the dissemination of country-based primary information on the epidemic and its implications

• Support ongoing economic and social planning efforts that accompany the current health response

Contribute to the preparation of countries’ policy responses for the post epidemic recovery

Short term

Medium and long

term

Understanding the Continental Consequences of the Ebola Outbreak

The purpose is to analyze prospectively the ripples that the pandemic can have on productive sectors, social protection, health and educational outcomes, beyond the immediate impact in lives

A Gap Assessment on Knowledge

Study and geographical focusDimensions/variables

coveredMethodology Results

World Bank - Economic impact the 3 affected countries; short term and medium term study

-GDP; -fiscal effect/financing gap; -inflation; -investment; - capital flight; exchange rate

Sector components Model which allows experimenting with various scenarios (e.g. low Ebola and high Ebola)

Ebola led to downward revision of the 2014 growth of Liberia (from 5.9% to 2.5%), Sierra Leone (from 11.3% to 8%) and Guinea (from 4.5% to 2.4%). The growth prospects for 2015, respectively, are -4.9%, 3% and 2%.

UNDP (Sierra Leone / Guinea Economic and social impact

Narrative analysis (Sierra Leone) of several sectors Multisectoral Consequences

WHO (the affected countries; 9 months of Ebola and projection to November 2014)

Health and health systems (New England J. of Medicine)

Forecasting tools 70.8% fatality rate; If not treated the # of Ebola cases will be 20,000 in all countries.

World Association of Universities - West Africa

Impact on higher education

Data from various universities for descriptive analysis

-negative for the higher education sector; Knowledge workers are being withdrawn.

The Economist (Ebola’s economic impact-September 3)

Health, education, trade and growth -

GDP declines, food shortage, supply of teachers decreases, decline in savings, investment/capital accumulation

WFP (Rapid Assessment)- Senegal Trade Rapid appraisal50% drop in cross-border trade, fruit and palm oil no longer available on border markets with Guinea

CDC (estimating the scale of EVD) Prevalence of EVD Computational and other modelling tools

8,000 cases in S. Leone; `16,000 cases in Liberia; 550,000 cases without intervention; 1.4million by January

FDC (finance derivatives company)- making economic sense of Ebola

Tourism; Aviation ; Health; Agriculture

Economic Consequences

Social Consequences

Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak

Increased Morbidity

Increased Mortality

Increased Pressure on

Health Systems

Not tending to Regular Pathologies – malaria, vaccinations, etc.

Incremental Costs to Health

Systems

Reduced School

Attendance

Incremental Dropouts

Decrease in Educational Outcomes

Incremental Costs to Governments

and Society

Decrease on Health Outcomes

Increased Labor

Absenteeism

Changes in Domestic

Consumption Patterns

Changes in Production Patterns

AgriculturalIndustry

MiningKnowledge

Transfer / Meetings

Changes in Internation

al Consumption Patterns

TransportTrade Tourism

Household Income, Food and Nutrition

Investment Patterns

Changes in Capital Flows

Migration

Africa's Integration and Transformation

CohesionGovernan

ce / Security

StigmaRisk

Perceptions

Uncertainty

Gender

Reduced Outcomes on Social Protection

Intra African and

Intercontinental Trade

Methodology -Sector Specific Analysis with a Holistic Approach

Health Education Social Protection

Labor Trade Agriculture

Financial Flows Commerce Gender

Increasing resiliencies from all sectors

• Priority: focusing on the emergency (current health response) as it will impact all sectors of the economy

• The need for policy responses in all affected sectors

Collaboration at Several Levels

Continental

ECA

Regional

UNDGCountry

UNDP & Other UN Partners

Time Line

September• Establishment

of Interdivisional TaskForce at ECA

October• Methodological

Development• Field Mission

November• Zero Draft

Report

December• Draft

Report

AUC Summit January 2015 –

•Presentation of Initial Results