The Social and Economic Effects of Space Weather (US Project)...The Social and Economic Effects of...
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The Social and Economic Effects of Space Weather (US Project) May 2, 2017 Space Weather Workshop Broomfield, Colorado Stacey L. Worman, Susan M. Taylor, Terry Onsager, Jeffery E. Adkins, Jennifer Sprague, Olivia Griot, Daniel N. Baker, Kevin F. Forbes, Matthew Ranson, and Dan Basoli
Transcript of The Social and Economic Effects of Space Weather (US Project)...The Social and Economic Effects of...
The Social and Economic Effects of Space Weather (US Project) May 2, 2017 Space Weather Workshop Broomfield, Colorado
Stacey L. Worman, Susan M. Taylor, Terry Onsager, Jeffery E. Adkins, Jennifer Sprague, Olivia Griot, Daniel N. Baker, Kevin F. Forbes, Matthew Ranson, and Dan Basoli
Abt Associates | pg 2
Overview
1) Goals
2) Approach
3) Results
4) Next Steps
Abt Associates | pg 3
Goals
Identify Describe Quantify
Abt Associates | pg 4
Approach
Identify Describe Quantify
Literature Review
Excel-Based Models
Stakeholder Outreach
Literature Review
August 2016
September 2017
Today
Abt Associates | pg 5
Results
Identify Describe Quantify
Literature Review
Excel-Based Models
Stakeholder Outreach
Literature Review
Abt Associates | pg 6
Results
• Reactive Power Losses • Transformer Heating • Relay Misoperation • Power Imbalances • Loss of Precision Timing
• Communication • Navigation • Human Exposure • Avionic Upsets
• Cumulative Dose • Novel Anomalies • Link Disruptions • Loss of Altitude • Loss of Orientation
• Loss of Lock • Ranging Errors
17 Different Physical Impacts Across 4 Sectors
Abt Associates | pg 7
Results
Defensive Investments
Before Event After Event
Mitigating Actions
Asset Damage
Service Interruptions
Human Health
Time
SWx Event 5 Different Types of Social & Economic Costs
Abt Associates | pg 8
Results
Defensive Investments
Before Event After Event
Mitigating Actions
Asset Damage
Service Interruptions
Human Health
Time
SWx Event
Data & Research
Forecasts Nowcasts Current Observations
Abt Associates | pg 9
Results
Identify Describe Quantify
Literature Review
Excel-Based Models
Stakeholder Outreach
Literature Review
• 17 Different Physical Impacts Across 4 Sectors
• 5 Different Types of Social & Economic Costs
Abt Associates | pg 10
Results Social & Economic Costs
Defensive Investments
Mitigating Actions
Asset Damage
Service Interruptions
Health Effects
Phys
ical
Impa
cts t
o Se
ctor
s
Communications Navigations
Human Exposure Avionic Upsets
Cumulative Dose Novel Anomalies
Link Disruptions
Loss of Altitude Loss of Orientation
Reactive Power
Transformer Heating
Relay Mis-operation
Power Imbalances
Generator Tripping
Loss of Lock
Ranging Errors
Abt Associates | pg 11
Next Steps
Identify Describe Quantify
Literature Review
Excel-Based Models
Stakeholder Outreach
Literature Review
Abt Associates | pg 12
Next Steps
Conceptual Model
Social & Economic Costs
SWx Event
Physical Impacts
(Risk Parameters)
Abt Associates | pg 13
Next Steps
Conceptual Model
Social & Economic Costs
SWx Event
Physical Impacts
(Risk Parameters)
Abt Associates | pg 14
Next Steps
Conceptual Model
Social & Economic Costs
SWx Event
Physical Impacts
(Risk Parameters)
Asset Damage
Cumulative Dose Novel Anomalies Link Disruptions Loss of Altitude
Loss of Orientation
Abt Associates | pg 15
Next Steps
• What are the cost of moderate & extreme storms? • What physical impacts are the most costly? • Which social & economic costs are the largest? • How do SWPC products & services reduce costs?
