The Six Transformations Necessary to Achieve the SDGs … · 2019. 10. 23. · The Six...
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JST Tokyo Headquarters, Science Plaza, B1F Hall – 11 October 2019
Nebojsa NakicenovicFormer Deputy Director General
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics
Vienna University of Technology
The Six Transformations
Necessary to Achieve
the SDGsSDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
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2019 #2Nakicenovic
Four Great Achievements since the
Beginning of Industrial Revolution
Life expectancy has doubled in a century
One billion are obese while less go hungry
More die by suicide than war and violence
Everyone in the world has a mobile phone
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2019 #3Nakicenovic
Source: Modi, 2011
Mobile Phones Charging
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2019 #4Nakicenovic
100,000-year ice-core record
Source: Data from Petit et al. 1999, labeled as in Young and Steffen 2009.
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2019 #5Nakicenovic
Holocene – Cradle of Humanity
with Neolithic Revolution
Source: Data from Petit et al. 1999, labeled as in Young and Steffen 2009.
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2019 #6Nakicenovic
Tipping Elements & Paris
Adapted from Schellnhuber et al. 2016
Source: John Schellnhuber et al. 2016
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2019 #7Nakicenovic
Global emissions from fossil fuel and industry: 36.2 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2016, 62% over 1990
Projection for 2017: 36.8 ± 2 GtCO2, 2.0% higher than 2016
Estimates for 2015 and 2016 are preliminary. Growth rate is adjusted for the leap year in 2016.Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017
Emissions from fossil fuel use and industry
Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation
(IPCC “likely” range)
Kyoto
Paris
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2019 #8Nakicenovic
Collective Responsibility in the Anthropocene
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2019 #9Nakicenovic
Stockton – Darlington Steam Railway
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2019 #10Nakicenovic
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2019 #11Nakicenovic
Supply Technologies Cost Trends
Source: Grubler et al, 2012
230GW @ $0.8/Wp
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2019 #12Nakicenovic
Technological Change Dynamic, Cumulative, Systemic and Uncertain
Incremental – gradual (continuous) and
cumulative improvements
Abrupt – radical, discontinuous and
disruptive as “gales of creative
destruction”
Add as many mail-coaches as you
please, you will never get a railroad by so
doing. [Schumpeter, 1935/1951, 136
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2019 #13Nakicenovic 13
1850 19501900 2000 2050
Source: After Granger Morgan, 2013
Transformational Change
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2019 #14Nakicenovic
UN DESA and UNFCCC conference
on synergies between the SDGs and
the Paris Agreement – 1-3 April 2019
Copenhagen.
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2019 #15Nakicenovic
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Tota
l Glo
bal
Po
licy
Co
sts
(20
10
-20
30)
Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 2014
Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies
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2019 #16Nakicenovic
Using knowledge on interlinkages to
exploit synergies and minimize
trade-offs in the policy process can
contribute to overall policy coherence
Interlinkages among the SDGs
• Survey of existing publications
• A tool to visualize the cumulated
interlinkages from a set
of publications
• Meta analysis of the main studies
on interlinkages
interlinkages among goals and targets
Source: Miola, 2019
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2018 #17Nakicenovic
Human capacity
& demographyEducation, health, ageing,
labor markets, gender, inequalities
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Decarbonization
& energyEnergy access,
efficiency, electrification,
decent services
Consumption
& productionResource use,
circular economy, sufficiency, pollution
Smart citiesDecent housing,
mobility, sustainable
infrastructure, pollution
Food, biosphere
& waterSustainable intensification,
biodiversity, forests, oceans, healthy diets,
nutrients
Digital
revolutionArtificial intelligence,
big data, biotech, nanotech, autonomous
systems
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
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2018 #18Nakicenovic
Human capacity
Demography &
Health
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Decarbonization
& Energy
Consumption
& Production
Smart Cities
& Mobility
Food, Biosphere
& Water
Digital
Revolution
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
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2019 #19Nakicenovic
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
sh
are
(%
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Primary education
Secondary education
Tertiary education
Education and Human Capacity
Transformation (SSP1)
Source: Lutz et al., 2018
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2019 #20Nakicenovic
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
ye
ars
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Human capacity & demography
Life Expectancy
History SSP1 SSP2 SSP3
Source: UNDESA (2017) and Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (2015).
Counter-transformation (SSP3)
Transformation (SSP1)
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2019 #21Nakicenovic
Human capacity
Demography &
Health
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Decarbonization
& Energy
Consumption
& Production
Smart Cities
& Mobility
Food, Biosphere
& Water
Digital
Revolution
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
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2019 #22Nakicenovic
Urban Metabolism or Ecology
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2019 #23Nakicenovic
Carbon Composite Bridge in Madrid
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2019 #24Nakicenovic
Carbon Composite BMW i3
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2018 #25Nakicenovic
Human capacity
Demography &
Health
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Decarbonization
& Energy
Consumption
& Production
Smart Cities
& Mobility
Food, Biosphere
& Water
Digital
Revolution
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
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Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
“Carbon Law”
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Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
“Carbon Law”
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Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
“Carbon Law”
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2019 #29Nakicenovic
Possible Transformational Technologies
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2019 #30Nakicenovic
NET Power Breaks Ground on
Demonstration Plant for Oxyfuel,
Nantural Gas ZEP, La Porte, Texas
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2018 #31Nakicenovic
Human capacity
Demography &
Health
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Decarbonization
& Energy
Consumption
& Production
Smart Cities
& Mobility
Food, Biosphere
& Water
Digital
Revolution
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
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2019 #32Nakicenovic
Food for a Week, Aboubakar Family© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY
Source: Menzel, 2005
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2019 #33Nakicenovic
© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY
Source: Menzel, 2005
Food for a Week, Melander Family
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2019 #34Nakicenovic
Human capacity
Demography &
Health
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Decarbonization
& Energy
Consumption
& ProductionSmart Cities
& Mobility
Food, Biosphere
& Water
Digital
Revolution
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
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2019 #35Nakicenovic
Historical (UN)
IIASA SRES B1 scenario
IIASA SRES
B2 scenario
IIASA SRES A2r scenario
Urbanization
World
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Source: Grubler et al. 2012
Po
pu
latio
n
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2019 #36Nakicenovic
Historical (UN)
IIASA SRES B1 scenario
IIASA SRES
B2 scenario
IIASA SRES A2r scenario
Urbanization
World, UK, BRICs
UK
BRICs
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Po
pu
latio
n
Source: Grubler et al. 2012
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2018 #37Nakicenovic
Human capacity
Demography &
Health
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Decarbonization
& Energy
Consumption
& ProductionSmart Cities
& Mobility
Food, Biosphere
& Water
Digital
Revolution
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
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2019 #38Nakicenovic
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 20500%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
OECD
Non-OECD
Technology Diffusion Compared(access to cellphones)
Cellphones
Δt = 13 yrs
Cellphones
Δt = 11 yrs
Source: Grubler, 2016
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2019 #39Nakicenovic
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 20500%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
OECD
Toilets
Δt = 72 yrs
Non-OECD
Toilets
Δt = 52 yrs
Technology Diffusion Compared(access to safe sanitation and cellphones)
Cellphones
Δt = 13 yrs
Cellphones
Δt = 11 yrs
Source: Grubler, 2016
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2019 #40Nakicenovic
Impact of IC Technology Convergence
Source: Grubler et al., 2018
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2019 #41Nakicenovic
Digital Revolution – ConvergenceArtificial Intelligence, Deep Learning, Big Data, Robotics,
Nanotechnology, Quantum Computing, Synthetic Biology
The Internet of Things, 3D Printing, Block Chain,
Autonomous Vehicles, Augmented Reality
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2019 #42Nakicenovic Source: Gartner, 2017
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2018 #43Nakicenovic
Vision:
Sustainable
Future for All
→ Growing number of actors of change:
• green businesses
• cities
• civil society
• science
• IGOs (UN etc.)
→ 2030: Achievement of SDGs
→ New values and norms; new morality and ethics
Source: After WBGU, 2011
Legitimacy of
BAU eroding
→ 2050: Sustainability transformation
The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)
“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries
2030 2050
Tra
ns
form
ati
on
to
Su
sti
an
an
ab
ilit
y
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2018 #44Nakicenovic
● A new era in human history is emerging! After Neolithic
& Industrial, the Digital Revolution is the next era.
● Digitalization can enable a disruptive revolution toward
a Digital Anthropocene – a quantum leap for civilization!
● The paradox of the Digital Anthropocene – digitalization
essential for achieving the Six Major Transformations &
is challenging the absorptive capacity of society.
● Build responsible knowledge societies capable of taking
action towards sustainability in the Digital Age –
governance urgently needed in Digital Anthropocene! .
● There are only 10 years to 2030!
Provisional Key Messages
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2018 #45Nakicenovic
Welcome to the Digital Anthropocene