The SendaiFrameworkfor Action

(HFA2)

David AlexanderUniversity College London

Ishinomaki, 2014

NB: pictures in thispresentation are mainlyfrom the 2011 tsunamiarea (2-4 years after)

June 1990: the United Nationsinaugurates the International Decade

for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)

• 140 nations establishnational IDNDR committees

• a few large international projectsare created (e.g., Radius, a projectfor the reduction of urban seismic risk)

• two large strategic conferencesare organised at the world level.

• the degree of success was limited:in ten years the IDNDR did nothalve the impact of disasters,as specified among its objectives

• but the Decade did assist thegrowth of international collaborationand the formulation of strategiesdesigned to combat natural disasters.

From:-

To:-

The 17 January 1995 Kobe earthquake,Hyogo Prefecture, Japan (6,330 dead)

The United Nations takes the initiative.

• make DRR a national and local prioritywith a strong institutional basis

• identify, assess and monitor disasterrisks and enhance early warning

• use knowledge, innovation and educationto build a culture of safety & resilience

• reduce the underlying risk factors

• strengthen disaster preparednessfor effective response at all levels.

HFA priorities for action

• non-binding; little or no monitoring

• missing key elements: corruption,gender, rights, minorities, etc.

• vague about ways and means

• does it really deal withthe causes of disaster?

• UN no-go areas? .

HFA shortcomings

• signing up to a non-binding agreementdoes not necessarily mean DRR action

• unscrupulous politicians can be legitimised at home and abroad

• good DRR is not exactlya top-down process

• collects evidence but usesit at best selectively

• accountability remains weak.

Deficiencies of the UN process

World Bank

International Council for Science & UNISDR

FORIN: Forensic Investigationof Disasters

"disaster risk creation, not reduction"

Alexander, D.E. 2012. The 'Titanic Syndrome': risk andcrisis management on the Costa Concordia. Journal of

Homeland Security and Emergency Mgt 9(1); article 33.

GNDR Views fromthe Front LineProgramme, 2007->

"The City of Venice joined the[UNISDR Safe Cities] Campaign

as a Role Model for cultural heritageprotection and climate change adaptation."

Venice on an ordinary day…

• effect of heroin addiction onthe reconstruction of Bam, Iran

• introduction of repressive Shia andblasphemy laws in Aceh and Padang

• colossal waste of public money ontransitional shelter in L'Aquila, Italy

• government insensitivity to culturalheritage protection in Christchurch.

Reality check:

• widening wealth gap since 1970

• failure to divert resources fromresponse to prevention and mitigation

• half of world trade goesthrough 78 tax havens

• one fifth of world trade is illicit(drugs, armaments, people, species)

• relationship of proxy wars to aid.

More reality check:

Maybe we can solve theproblems with international aid?

• resources that debilitatelocal coping capacity

• munitions, military hardware, soldiertraining and some humanitarian stuff

• an instrument of political influence

• a means of liningcertain people's pockets.

What is aid?

• BIG concrete on poor people's land

• of direct benefit to the donor countries

• aid is in DEEP CRISIS.

What is aid?

• denial or restriction ofaccess to information

• lack of self-determination and autonomyof decision-making about safety

• oppression, aggression and violence;failure to protect the vulnerable

• forced migration; denial of resources

• inequality, injustice and corruption.

DRR and human rights violations

In disasters and disaster risk,how important is gender?

Kobe 1995 earthquake deathsby gender and age

― males ― females

• colossal imbalances in power and wealth

• immense but eminently solvable problemsthat are not solved because there ispowerful opposition to attempts to do so

• huge differences in thedefinition of what is rational

• many key activities are notlegitimate by any standards.

What is the world actually like?

• communities and governmentsare not necessarily goodat or committed to DRR

• power structures determine disaster

• evidence and research are seldomthe basis of policy or actions

• rationality depends on contextand reality differs by person.

Yet more reality

• corruption

• political decision-making

• shoddy building (often wilful)

• ignorance (sometimes wilful)

• seismicity.

What causes earthquake disasters?- in probable order of importance -

Compared to theoriginal plans,this hospital lackedmore than 500concrete beams.In the earthquake,there was massmortality in thematernity wing.

NB: Correlation does not prove causation, but....

• difficult to define

• virtually impossible to measure

• extremely pervasive, endogenous

• moral and ethical frameworks vary

• links with other ills (black economy).

Corruption

Without corruption, the impact ofthis earthquake would have been

about 10% of what it actually was.

www.bbc.co.uk/news

And so to Sendai City, Miyagi Prefecture

The Sendai Framework forDisaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030

• to last until 2030 (15 years)

• tackles health, human rights anddisplacement (including forcedmigration), but with little detail

• women, children, elderly, animals in it

• minorities mentioned, not much detail.

Sendai Framework highlights

• weak links with climate change andsustainable development agendas

• no clear commitment to financialaid for poorer countries to do DRR

• includes targets, but notprecisely defined ones

• creates a working group to applyindicators and measure progress.

Sendai Framework highlights

Into the future

• represents some sort ofinternational consensus

• a framework for policy and actions

• reminds countries of their responsibilities

• an agenda for international collaboration

• implementation progress to be monitored.

What value does a non-legally-bindinginternational agreement have?

• top-down DRR doesn't work

• countries can evade their responsibilities

• it cannot be policed

• vague on details, hence implementation

• poorly connected to the wider agenda.

What value does a non-legally-bindinginternational agreement have?

Let's lay it on the line: everythingmentioned in the Sendai Frameworkshould be done by all countries ofthe world, and those with more

resources should help those with fewer.

But DRR offers a wide rangeof opportunities to avoid it.

In Japan, Fukushima Daiichi destroyedthe relationship of trust between

the people, government and science.

Organisationalsystems:management

Socialsystems:behaviour

Naturalsystems:function

Technicalsystems:

malfunction

VulnerabilityHazard

Resilienc

e

Politicalsystems:decisions

RISKSdaily: unemployment, poverty, disease, etc.major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc.emerging risks: pandemics, climate change

SUSTAINABILITYdisaster risk reduction

resource consumptionstewardship of the environment

economic activitieslifestyles and communities

SUSTAINABILITY

david.alexander@ucl.ac.ukslideshare.net/dealexander

emergency-planning.blogspot.com

Thank you for your attention

Ishinomaki Mangattan Museum, 2011 tsunami area