The SAMPERS project - an over view By Gunnar Johansson Sveder Transek AB Postal address: Solna Torg...
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![Page 1: The SAMPERS project - an over view By Gunnar Johansson Sveder Transek AB Postal address: Solna Torg 3, S-171 45 Solna, Sweden Tel: +46 8 735 24 49, Fax:](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649da15503460f94a8de07/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The SAMPERS project- an over view
By Gunnar Johansson Sveder
Transek AB
Postal address: Solna Torg 3, S-171 45 Solna, Sweden
Tel: +46 8 735 24 49, Fax: +46 8 735 20 30
e-mail: [email protected], web: www.Transek.se
![Page 2: The SAMPERS project - an over view By Gunnar Johansson Sveder Transek AB Postal address: Solna Torg 3, S-171 45 Solna, Sweden Tel: +46 8 735 24 49, Fax:](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649da15503460f94a8de07/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
28 April 1999 2
Background
• Long tradition of cost-benefit analysis of investment projects
• Long tradition of modelling - from 4-step to disaggregate systems
• SAMPLAN, extensive co-operation between agencies responsible for – road, rail, air, sea
• National transportation plan, investment plan, transportation policy:– maintenance, taxation, road
pricing, technical development, regulations
• Evaluation of alternative scenarios the society– efficiency, environment, safety,
regional balance
• Detailed cost-benefit analysis
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28 April 1999 3
The old national traffic forecast system
National road network data bank
Public transport(train, bus, air ) Maps
EMME/2 GIS
FREDRIKregional trips
Socio-economic data
IC/3long distance
Car owner ship
EVACBA - assessment
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28 April 1999 4
The project
• Contract April 1998
• New traffic demand models– Current data
• National travel survey (1994-1997)
• SP-survey (time of day)
• Fehmarn Belt, Öresund
– All trips• Regional
• National long distance
• International
– Time of day modelling• Long distance public transport trips
– Secondary destination• Regional trips
• Computer System– EMME/2
– Plenty of forecast parameters
– Integrated into one single user-friendly system
• Car ownership
• Demand models
• Impact calculation
• Cost benefit analysis
• Accessibility calculation
– Flexibility to output data
• Validation
• Delivery, spring and autumn 1999
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28 April 1999 5
Data assembling
Quality control
Trips construction
Estimation
Client approval
Model implementation
Validation (Survey, Elasticity)
Validation (Traffic counts)
The project process
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28 April 1999 6
Train Pedesr. BikeCar dr. Car pas. Bus
Dest1…n
Trip No trip
Bf Bp B T G C
Dest1…n
Bf Bp B T G C
Dest1…n
Bf Bp B T G C
Dest1…n
Home based Secondary destination Working place based
……. ……. …….
Trip No trip
Befolkningsutveckling 1993 - 2010
2 100
1 050
210
-210
-1 050
-2 100
Demand models - Regional trips
• Nested logit models– Secondary destinations
• Trip purposes– Home-work trip
– Recreation
– Personal visits
– School trips
– Business
– and other
• Sweden divided into five regions
• Total 8000 zones
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28 April 1999 7
Demand models - National long distance trips
• Nested logit models– Time table assignment
– Time of day models
• Trip purposes– Business
• Duration 0 days
• Duration 1+days
– Private• Duration 1 day
• Duration 2-5 days
• Duration 5+ days
• Total 670 zonesCar
Trip No trip
Bus IC train
X2000train
Air
Destinations
Trip frequency
Destination
Mode
Time of day
Type of ticket
98-10-16 10:45MODULE: 6.26TRANSEK5.. .Chr
EMME/2 PROJECT: SAMPERS-modellSCENARIO : 9731 Period 3, Dag 1 (tisdag)
TRANSIT LINES: 33 LINES
3900 3906
3907 3902
3805
3813 3863 3861 3800 3853 3811 3821 3801 3865
3810
3721
3728
3942 3700
3703
3704
3502
3503
3500
0
50
100
150
200
km
16h00 16h30 17h00 17h30 18h00 18h30 19h00 19h30 20h00 20h30 21h00 21h30 22h00 22h30
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28 April 1999 8
Impact & Cost benefit analysis
• Energy consumption– Petrol, Diesel
– Costs
• Exhaust emissions– NOx, HC, Particulate, CO2,
SO2
– Costs
• Traffic safety– Number of killed
– Number of severely injured
– Number of slightly injured
– Wildlife accidents
• Costs– Maintenance costs
– Consumer surplus
– CBA
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28 April 1999 9
Computer system
• Technology– Windows NT
– Database• Access (ODBC)
– Software• Visual Basic 5
• PowerPlay
– Object oriented approach
• Multiprocessing
• Export file format– EMME/2
• Data bas
• Filter matrices
– Excel• Standard report
– GIS• MapInfo/ArcView
– Micro simulation system• Contram
• ...
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28 April 1999 10
Computer system
Long dist.trip
Data base
SAMPERS Scenario handler system
Regional trip
Emme/2 PowerPlay
ImpactCBA
Internat.trip
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28 April 1999 11
Model validation
• No “Base matrix”
• Model estimation– Value of time
– Elasticity
• After implementation– Elasticity
– Model vs Survey • Trip frequency by mode and trip
propose
• Trip length
• Traffic production (mileage)
• Assigned traffic – Counts
• Roads
• Trains
• Airports
• Ferries
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28 April 1999 12
Mälar lake region, number of trips, model divided by survey
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Hom
e-work
Oth
er pers
onel
Lesiu
re
Private
vis
its
School
Busin
ess
Total
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28 April 1999 13
Mälar lake region, number of trips, model divided by survey
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Bike
Bus
Train
Car d
r.
Car p
ass
Pedest
rian
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28 April 1999 14
South region, number of home-work trips by travel distance in km
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
0-2,52,5-5
5-10
10-1515-20
20-2525-30
30-3535-40
40-4545-50 50-
Survey
Model
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28 April 1999 15
Traffic production, km per day
02000000400000060000008000000
1000000012000000140000001600000018000000
Bike
Bus
Train
Car d
r.
Car p
ass
Pedest
rian
Survey
Model
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28 April 1999 16
Road traffic south of Malmö city
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28 April 1999 17
Road traffic west regionLINK SCATTERGRAM
99-05-02 10:39MODULE: 2.43TRANSEK5.. ..ks
EMME/2 PROJECT: VAST fr 3000 zonerSCENARIO : 1000 Bilnt 1997 Vst-Tass
LINKS: !ul1=0
391 LINKS
REGR: Y=A+BXA= -242.416B= .884073R2= .94368STD= 1177.299
2500 5000 7500 10000 12500 15000 17500 20000 22500 25000 27500 30000
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
17500
20000
22500
25000
UL1
UL2
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28 April 1999 18
Road traffic around the city of Jönköping
LNKFLDEN, BIL
99-04-30 09:58MODULE: 2.13TRANSEK5.. .Chr
EMME/2 PROJECT: SYDOST fr 3000 zonerSCENARIO : 2000 Bil 1997
WINDOW:1375.8/ 6375.81429.1/6415.73
LINKS: mod=c
langv privlangv tjreg arbetereg vrigt
LAYERS:
SCALE: 651.5
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28 April 1999 19
Passenger in the Stockholm underground system
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28 April 1999 20
Future possibilities
• Options– Integration of a new car owner
ship model, liked by logsum variables to the demand model
– Integration of land use model