The Rules of the Game are Changing -...
Transcript of The Rules of the Game are Changing -...
The Rules of the Game are Changing
EREZ VIGODMAN PRESIDENT & CEO
MAKHTESHIM AGAN
JUNE 2013
© All rights reserved to Makhteshim Agan
This is the age of
Revolution
2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Billio
ns
Developing Countries
Developed Countries
Urban Population
Source: UN Population Division
Changing demographic landscape
1820 1870 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2025
Changing consumer landscape
Source: McKinsey Global Institute Cityscope 2.0
<1 3 7 13 23 23 36 53
Share of
population in
consuming
class (%)
World population
Billion people1
0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 2.4
4.2
1.0 1.2 1.5 2.2
2.8
4.0
4.4
3.7
1820 1870 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2025
Below consuming class
Consuming class
Consumer landscape is changing dramatically
B6 China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea
G6 U.S., Japan, Germany, England, France, Italy
Thousands of $Billions
7,579
2005 2005
13,106
24,799
2025 2025
20,565
Real consumption growth in 2012
Source: Oxford Economics
China
India
UAE
Russia
Ukraine
Saudi Arabia
Vietnam
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Colombia
Chile
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
South Africa
US
Korea
Japan
Poland
Egypt
Turkey
UK
Eurozone
Czech Republic
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Major leap is needed in the next two decades in the supply of scarce global natural resources
Growth rate needed between 2010-2030 in relation to the
growth rate of these natural resources between 1990-2010
Arable Land
(food) Water Metals (Steel) Energy
+249% +139% +57% +32%
Resource price volatility is at all-time high, with the exception of energy in the 1970s
Source: Grill and Yang; Pfalfenzeller; World Bank; IMF; OECD statistics; FAO; UN Comtrade; McKinsey analysis
Note: Calculated as the standard deviation of the commodity sub index divided by average of the sub index over the period
20 22 21 13 15 7 4
56 38
14 40
7 8 14 15 15
9 8 20 21
10
30
7
25
10 11 17 13
3 9
21
6
32
15 24 24 20
11 17
9 10 11 13
27
Energy
Food
Metals
Agricultural
materials
Annual price volatility
%
Commodity prices have increased sharply since 2000, erasing all the declines of the 20th century
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20112 40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2012 2015 2019
Forecast
MGI Commodity Price Index (years 1999-2001 = 100)
WWI
Postwar
Depression
Great
Depression
WWII
1970s Oil Shock
Source: Grill and Yang; Pfalfenzeller; World Bank; IMF; OECD statistics; FAO; UN Comtrade; McKinsey analysis
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The world is changing at an accelerating pace
GDP per capita (1990 dollars)
X years ago
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Now
Source: J. Bradford De Long 12
13
THE RULES OF THE GAME ARE
CHANGING INDUSTRY
AFTER INDUSTRY
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How the Business in Changing in the Agricultural Universe
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Grain stocks have been decreasing and therefore crop prices are increasing
2.0
4.0
8.0
1.0
2.5
4.0
1.5
2.0
3.0
3.5
4.5
Stock to use ratio (months)
Average grain price (log scale)
Average grain prices and stock-to-use ratio
USD/bushel and months of stock to use ratio
Source: USDA, Datastream, Nomura research, 2011 15
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Commodity and food prices are increasing
Source: Phillips McDougall, September 2011
Crop Prices 1992 – 2012
FAO Food Price index
0
100
200
300
400
500
Cotton Corn Soybean Wheat
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
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Average annual yield increase of major crops
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2.2%
2.0%
1.7%
1.4%
1.2%
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Source: FAO, USDA
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Rethinking agriculture
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Adding new crop land
(reducing land degradation recycling
urban waste water and improving irrigation
techniques)
Developed countries’ large scale farms:
Increasing yield
through innovation (mechanization, genetic variety,
farming practices-including precision
farming)
Developing countries’ smallholder farms:
Boosting productivity
through transfer of technology and best farming practices
Reducing
Food
Waste
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Israel as a dynamic lab for agriculture – lack of water and arable land as well as a variety of climates as a catalyst for innovation
Desert Agriculture
Aquaculture High efficiency of water use – Irrigation & Recycled water
Unique seed cultivation
Greenhouse Technologies
Seed treatment through the use of biotechnology
“Israel is driving its six decade quest to coax more from the soil, water, air,
and sunlight than do most other nations on earth…Israel leads the world by
recycling 70% of its wastewater, three times the figure for No.2 Spain.” Business Week, 2009
A few facts about innovation in Israeli agriculture:
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The Role of Crop Protection
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Steady agriculture demand cannot be met without crop protection
Source: Crop losses to pests; E-C Oerke, Journal of Agricultural Science (2006), 144
26%
51%
18%
32% 23%
40%
74%
49%
82%
68% 77%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Potato Wheat Cotton Maize Rice Soybean
Potential yield loss with
no crop protection
21
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Nemotode
Nematode
contamination Healthy
22
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Diseased potato fields
23
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Corn earworm
Corn Earworm will destroy
more than 90% of the sweet corn yields
And it's just one of 10,000
species of plant-eating insects
24
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Monilinia Fructicola fungus
The Monilinia Fructicola fungus
will lead to a loss of 75% of the peach yields
25
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Portulaca Oleracea
Portulaca Oleracea
will demolish 70% of the Carrot Yields
Season long
weed competition Zero weed
competition
26
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Seed dressing
27
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Environmental Solution Products enable healthy animals
by eliminating fleas, ticks, and chewing lice
28
29
The Rules of the Game are
CHANGING Also in Our Industry
29
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Crop protection average volume growth is expected to continue
Source: Philips Mc Dougal, Nomura estimates
Crop prices are close to all-time highs
A gradual technology adoption in emerging
Asia and Russia
Acceleration in North American-driven
fungicide adoption
Continued growth in Latin America
GMO substitution is over
1981-2020
30
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Never has the pace of change been greater
Emerging role of generics and intensifying generic competition
1
Shifting economic centers 2
Emerging role of Chinese AgChem producers
3
The role of seeds and traits 4
Rising cost of innovation 5
Increase in regulatory scrutiny 6
Increasing distribution consolidation 7
31
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The emerging role of generics and intensifying generic competition
Crop Protection Market Share by Product
Off-patent products have
gained a total of 15.4% in
market share since 2004
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
Proprietary
Proprietary Off-Patent
Generic
Source: Phillips McDougall 32
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MAI #7
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Ranking
66% 56%
69% 76%
98%
82%
34% 44%
31% 24%
2%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Syngenta Bayer BASF Dow Monsanto DuPont
Proprietary off-patent and generic products
Patented sales
Blurring boundaries between generic and innovative companies
Illustrative. Source: Phillips McDougal
Syngenta Bayer Monsanto Dow DuPont
BASF FMC Sumitomo
Others
33
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The emerging role of the Chinese chemical industry
Volume of Chinese AgChem exports*
Source: Phillips McDougall, February 2012
*Formulated products
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
34
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The emerging role of the Chinese chemical industry
AgChem products* export prices, 2009
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Insecticides Fungicides Herbicides
$/
ton
China
India
Israel
USA
France
Switzerland
Germany
Japan
Source: Phillips McDougall, Dec 2010
*Formulated products
35
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Makhteshim Agan – who we are
36
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Very Compelling Growth Story
Source: Philips McDougal, MAI analysis
$B
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
$B
Crop
Protection
Market
MA Industries
Crop
Protection
CAGR
13%
CAGR
3% 0.85 0.88 0.89
1.18
1.54
1.74 1.78
2.08
2.53
2.21
2.37
2.69
2.83
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
$B
37
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MAI Sales Spread
53%
23%
17%
7%
Sales by Product Group
38.5%
22.7% 17.6%
17.5%
3.7%
Fungicides
Insecticides
Herbicides
Non Agro
Europe
Latin
America
North
America
Asia
Pacific
and
Africa
Israel
2012 Total Sales - $2,83 mm
Regional Spread
38
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MAI Market Share and Position (2011)
12%
4%
19%
12%
25%
total
APAC & Africa
LATM
NAFTA
Europe
Off-patent
market share Off-patent
position
4.7%
2.4%
7.0%
4.8%
7.5%
total
APAC & Africa
LATM
NAFTA
Europe
Total sector
market share Total sector
position
1st
2nd
1st
5th
1st
5th
8th
7th
10th
7th
Sources: Phillips McDougall; MAI analysis 39
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Our Unparalleled Off-patent Global Footprint
Sales in over 120 countries
More than 50 subsidiaries in close to 45 countries
HQ
Subsidiary
Sales
40
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Global Development & Registration Network
7 development and registration hubs, 2 chemistry R&D centers
Development capabilities in all regions
Local registration capabilities in over 100 countries
Full registration dossier building capabilities
Switzerland
Germany
Israel
Brazil
Colombia
US
India
Israel
Development and registration center
Chemical R&D center
India
41
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MAI’s global manufacturing footprint
Synthesis
Formulation
Italy (Kollant)
Spain (Aragro)
Poland (MAAP)
Greece (Alfa)
US (Bold-Ocilla)
Columbia (Proficol)
Brazil (Milenia –
Taquari)
Israel (Makhteshim)
Brazil (Milenia –
Londrina)
US (CSI-Houston)
Israel (Agan)
US (Bold-Tifton)
India (Gujarat)
South Korea (JK)
Mexico (Bravo)
42
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Our current business model
Product Quality & High Level
Service
One Stop Vendor: For Unparalleled
Solution Offering
Product Distinctiveness • Innovative
Products
• Advanced Formulations and Mixtures
43
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Looking Reality
In the EYE
44
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Looking reality in the eye
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090.7
1.2
1.7
2.2
2.7
Sales GM
45
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MAI key challenges (January 2010)
Cost structure of AI’s and products
Global supply chain effectiveness
Brazilian operation
U.S Ag Chem penetration
Business model (in an ever changing industry)
New vision, purpose and clear direction
46
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47
What We Have Done Since 24.1.2010
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Laying the foundation that will support differentiation
Fixing the foundation
(operational enhancement measures)
Driving Organic growth
48
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2009-2012 financial figure highlights
CAGR: 9%
CAGR: 16%
CAGR: 26%
CAGR: 33%
CAGR: 55%
49
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Strong focus on gross margin
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
0.7
1.2
1.7
2.2
2.7
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sales GM
50
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Laying the foundation that will support differentiation
Fixing the foundation
(operational enhancement measures)
Driving Organic growth
Laying the foundation
for a new future
51
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Laying the foundation for a new future
Innovation culture
Crystal
Novel Agricultural Technologies Division – new frontiers
Ground preparation for a global brand launch
From products orientation to market orientation– enhancing our marketing capabilities in conjunction with a better understanding of farmers needs
Business combination with ChemChina
Core Values: Creating Simplicity, Empowering People, Passion, Get it Done Core Purpose: Creating Simplicity in Agriculture Visionary goal: creating a new business model,
?
Enhancing product portfolio differentiation
52
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Business Combination with ChemChina
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The importance of food security in China
China Food
Security
Promoting safer and more
efficient Agrochemicals
Promoting Agricultural Technology
Increasing Arable Land
Adopting high quality seeds
China is 20% of the world’s population, 7% of the world’s arable
land and 6.6% of global freshwater resources
54
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Reverse merger transaction with ChemChina
IDB ChemChina
40%
MAI
Acquiring and integrating selected
AgChem operations of ChemChina
and additional Chinese businesses
60%
55
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Five pillars to be built in China (a leap in implementing our new business model
Distribution leadership in a
fast growing market
Complementary R&D resources and capabilities
Strong domestic supply chain capabilities (sourcing, formulation platform)
Strong cost position of specific AIs
Our Customers
Developing a leading seeds
and traits business
56
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Project Crystal - Crystallizing Our Strategic Direction
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Creating
In Agriculture SIMPLICITY
Our Core Purpose
58
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Get it Done
Creating Simplicity
Passion
Empowering People
Our Values
59
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Quest blueprint
Business model
transformation
Make the most of
a game changing
transaction
Connecting purpose,
values and vision to
foster change
60
Thank you