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The Roller-Coaster History of Artificial Intelligence and...
Transcript of The Roller-Coaster History of Artificial Intelligence and...
February 23, 2018
Sharon D. Nelson, Esq. & John W. [email protected]; [email protected] - 703.359.0700
University of Richmond Law School
The Roller-Coaster History of Artificial Intelligence and its Impact on the
Practice of Law
“It’s the most exciting thing going on . . . It’s the big dream that anybody who’s ever been in computer science has been thinking about.”
“Ithinkweshouldbeverycarefulaboutartificial
intelligence.IfIhadtoguessatwhatourbiggestexistential
threatis,it’sprobablythat....Withartificialintelligence
we’resummoningthedemon.”
-ElonMusk
TheconceptofAIgoesbackforcenturies,butbyothernames
v Borrowedmindsv Mimickingthebrainv Thinkingmachinesv Intelligentcomputingv Neuralnetworksv Deeplearningv 1950– TheTuringTest– can
youdistinguishbetweenahumanandcomputer?
Alan Turing
1956– DartmouthSummerResearchProjectonArtificialIntelligence
v Stilltalkedaboutthinkingmachines
v Prominentmathematiciansandscientists
v OnewasMarvinMinsky,co-founderofMIT’sAILab
v Fundingfollowedtheconference
1974-1980– ThefirstAI“Winter”
v Governmentfundinghalted– computinglimitationspreventedtrueadvancementofAI
Interestrevivedinthe1980s
v Riseofexpertsystemsv “If-then”decisionmakingv Stillprimitivev Proponentspromisedwhat
theycouldn’tdeliverv Disappointmentinthe$1
billionayearindustryv Mid-90s– thesecondAI
Wintersetin
Gartner’s“HypeCycle”
v Newtechnologiesv Heightenexpectationsv Techfallsshortv Interestdeclinesv Techfindsproductiveuses
MarvinMinskyandSeymourPapert publish“Prologue:AViewfrom1988”
v WhyhasprogressinAIbeensoslow?v Researcherswhodon’tknowitshistory“havecontinued
tomakemanyofthesamemistakesthatothershavemadebeforethem.”
JohnMarkoff in2005
v NewYorkTimestechnologyreporter
v “Atitslowpoint,somecomputerscientistsandsoftwareengineersavoidedthetermartificialintelligenceforfearofbeingviewedaswild-eyeddreamers”
2011– IBM’sWatsonWinsAgainstJeopardy’sChampions
v KenJennings– longestwinningcontestant(74times)v BradRutter– wonthemostmoney– morethan$1,000,000
2012– Deeplearning
v Deeplearning:Acomplexsuperstructureofalgorithmsthatenablescomputerstoprocesshigh-levelabstractions,thatistothinkmorelikeahuman
v Googleemployeddeeplearningwhenanarrayofcomputersstudied10millionimagestofigureout,onitsown,whatacatis
v Mostmajorcarcompanies,Microsoft,IBM,Facebook–investingheavilyinAI
2016- GoogleDeepMind’sAlphaGodefeatsGoChampionLeeSedol
Lee Sedol was an 18 time world Go champion – Go is an ancient Chinese game played with black and white stones – win by surrounding more territory than your opponent. More complex than chess.
Gartnerprediction
v AIexpectedtohaverevenuesof$200billionin2018v 72%ofpeopleexpectedtointeractwithAIby2022– the
percentagewas11%in2017
Today...v LawfirmsinvestinginAIdirectly,partneringwithIBMWatsonand
RossIntelligence– andothersv LegaltechstartupsemployingAIv TraditionalpublishersinvestinginAI– ThomsonReuterhaspartnered
withIBMWatson,BloombergDNAdevelopinglitigationanalyticsv FastcaseAISandbox
It’saKodakmomentforlawfirms
v Kodakactuallyinventedthefirstdigitalcamerain1975v Thoughtdevelopingdigitalcameraswouldcannibalizeitsfilm
businessv Thoughttheyhadplentyoftimetoprepareforthedigitalcamera
era– tenyearsatleast
Routinelegalwork
v AlreadybeingoutsourcedtoAxiom,ThomsonReuters,ElevateandtheBigFouraccountingfirms
v Dentons,agloballawfirmwithmorethan7,000lawyers,establishedaninnovationandventurearm,NextlawLabs,in2015.Besidesmonitoringthelatesttechnology,theunithasinvestedinsevenlegaltechnologystart-ups
v “Ourindustryisbeingdisrupted,andweshoulddosomeofthatourselves,notjustbeavictimofit,”JohnFernandez,chiefinnovationofficerofDentons
“Where the technology is going to be in three to five years is the really interesting question,” said Ben Allgrove, a partner at Baker McKenzie, a firm with 4,600 lawyers. “And the honest answer is we don’t know.” March 19, 2017 NYT.
AIishereandincreasinglysuccessful– noAIwinterinsight
v TheAmLaw200getsit– boardthetrainorbeleftbehindv TheyneedAItoremaincompetitivev MostareinvestedinAIorplanningtoinvestv Filteringtosmallerfirmsmaytaketime– butnotlong
TheAIDance
v Isgettingfaster/morecomplexv Moremoney/Moore’sLawwill
makeitfasterstillv Inlaw,itwillbothtakeandreplace
jobs– hazyatthemomentv Atthemoment,weseethefuture
ofAIonlythroughaglass,darkly