The role of the Montreal Protocol in protecting present ...whan/ATOC4800_5000/Spring_2018/Mat… ·...

ATOC4088/5000: Policy implications of climate/critical issues in climate and the environment University of Colorado Boulder

Boulder, CO 5 March 2015

byDr. David W. Fahey, Director Chemical Sciences Division Earth System Research Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, Colorado USA

The role of the Montreal Protocol in protecting present and future climate: A scientific perspective

Outline • Ozone basics

• The Montreal Protocol and dual benefits • HFCs and projected future emissions

• The future Montreal Protocol • Climate Change Building

• Summary remarks

 Protection from ultraviolet light from the ozone layer.

• The ozone layer resides in the stratosphere and surrounds the entire Earth. • UV-B radiation (280- to 315-nanometer (nm) wavelength) from the Sun is strongly absorbed in this layer. • UV-A (315- to 400-nm wavelength), visible light, and other solar radiation are not strongly absorbed by the ozone layer.

UNEP, 2010

• Human exposure to UV-B radiation increases the risks of skin cancer, cataracts, and a suppressed immune system. UV-B radiation exposure can also damage terrestrial plant life, single-cell organisms, and aquatic ecosystems.

  The stratospheric ozone is good ozone and excess ozone in the troposphere is bad ozone.

The Ozone Layer

Good ozone

Bad ozone

UNEP, 2010

  Total ozone at a point on the globe is the amount of ozone from the surface to the top of the atmosphere.

Ozone concepts: Total ozone & the Dobson Unit (DU)

Total ozone = ozone vertical sum

Stove pipe thought experiment: sort the atmosphere column into its different component gases O2 + N2

Ar + others

O3

Thought experiment:

UNEP, 2010

??? 3 mm = 0.12 in = 300 DU

  Ozone is a small fractional component of our atmosphere.

The Parties to this Protocol,

Being Parties to the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer,

Mindful of their obligation under that Convention to take appropriate measures to protect human health and the environment against adverse effects resulting or likely to result from human activities which modify or are likely to modify the ozone layer,

Recognizing that world-wide emissions of certain substances can significantly deplete and otherwise modify the ozone layer in a manner that is likely to result in adverse effects on human health and the environment,

Conscious of the potential climatic effects of emissions of these substances, ……

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer – 16 September 1987

www.unep.org/OZONE/pdfs/Montreal-Protocol2000.pdf

Universal ratification in September 2009 by 197 members of the United Nations.

The world’s most successful environmental treaty

17 September 2009

Antarctic Ozone Hole

Technical aspects of the Montreal Protocol

  The Montreal Protocol has imposed legally binding controls on the global consumption and production of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and introduced short-term and long-term substitute gases. - chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) - halons - hydrochloroflurocarbons (HCFCs) - hydroflurocarbons (HFCs)

  ODS are used to meet application demand for refrigeration, air conditioning, insulating foams, fire suppression, and many other society needs.

  The Montreal Protocol addresses the technical, economic and social aspects of its regulations and distinguishes between the developed and developing world.

Ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) entering the stratosphere in 2008

  Human uses of synthetic chemicals have significantly increased their abundance in the stratosphere.   Most synthetic gases have no significant loss processes in the troposphere, i.e., very unreactive.

UNEP, 2010

The Montreal Protocol & Amendments

UNEP/WMO, 2010

  The Montreal Protocol has been very successful in reducing chlorine and bromine in the atmosphere. A

tmos

pher

ic c

hlor

ine

and

brom

ine

(World avoided)   Chlorine and

bromine from ozone depleting substances (ODSs) destroys ozone.

City names are locations of the meetings of the parties

  Strategy: Start and strengthen.

UNEP, 2010

  Scientific assessments of ozone depletion have been an important component of the Montreal Protocol.

Montreal Protocol and scientific assessments

‘Vigilance’ is the new requirement

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme WMO World Meteorological Organization


The dual benefit of the Montreal Protocol

CFCs & halons HCFCs HFCs

High ODP Low ODP Zero ODP

High GWP

ODP

GWP

  By reducing the use and emissions of ozone depleting substances, the Montreal Protocol has provided to date the dual benefit of protecting ozone and climate.

ODP = ozone depletion potential increased ozone depletion CFC-11 = 1 GWP = global warming potential increased climate warming CO2 = 1

Metrics for ODSs and substitutes:

GWP ??

0 0 4000 8000 12000 160005 10 15 20Ozone depletion potential (ODP) Global warming potential (GWP, 100-yr)

Ozo

ne-d

eple

ting

subs

tanc

esS

ubst

itute

gas

es HFC-143a

HFC-23

HFC-125

HFC-152a

Halon-1211

CFC-11

HCFC-22

Methyl bromide

Carbon tetrachloride

(0)

(0)

(0)

(0)

(0.05)

(0)

Hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs)

Bromine-containinggases

(133)

(5)

(1)

Increasing ozone depletion Increasing surface warming

HFC-134a

Halon-1301

CFC-113

CFC-12

Chlorine-containinggases

HFC-1234yf(0) (4)

Ozone-depletion potentials and global warming potentials for equal mass emissions

UNEP/WMO, 2010

  ODSs contribute to both ozone depletion & climate change. HFCs contribute to climate change.

CFC-11 = 1 CO2 = 1

0

2

4

6

Em

issi

ons

(Meg

aton

nes

CF

C-1

1-eq

uiva

lent

per

yea

r)

1960 1980 2000 2020Year

Emissions weighted by ozone-depletion potentials (ODPs)

MontrealProtocol Ozone layer

protection

0

Emissions weighted by global-warming potentials (GWPs)

0

10

20

30

40

Em

issi

ons

(Gig

aton

nes

CO

2-eq

uiva

lent

per

yea

r)

MontrealProtocol

1960 1980 2000 2020Year

Climateprotection

reduction targetfor 2008 – 2012

2.0

Kyoto Protocol

Velders et al., 2007; UNEP/WMO, 2010

Demonstrating the dual benefit of the Montreal Protocol in protecting ozone and climate

  By 2010, the Montreal Protocol has avoided substantial ozone depletion and achieved 5-6 times Kyoto Protocol target in 2008-2012.

Bill Schorr, Kansas City Star, 1988

The World Avoided

Andersen and Sarma, 2002

Recent changes in the Montreal Protocol

CFCs & halons HCFCs HFCs

High ODP Low ODP Zero ODP

  In 2007, based on the documented success in reducing ODSs, the Montreal Protocol accelerated the phase out of HCFCs by 10 years (from 2040 to 2030) for developing nations.

  The 2007 Adjustment that accelerated the HCFC phaseout is the first, global, legally binding, fully funded action specifically to protect climate.

  Ultimately, maintaining the climate benefit depends on choosing HFC substitutes that have low-GWPs.

Phaseout accelerated in 2007

Annual Montreal Protocol Meeting, 2008, Doha, Qatar

Residential Air conditioning

Refrigeration Insulating foams

The demand for synthetic gases is still high and growing

  The expected growth in the developing world is large

Automobile Air conditioning

The future: Avoiding the large projected growth in HFC use

Velders et al., PNAS (2009)

  HFCs will be the primary choice for future applications of refrigeration, air conditioning, and foams.

  Scenarios based on GDP and population growth projections.

  Scenario assumes HCFC phaseout schedule and business-as-usual replacement schedule from developed nations.

  HFC emissions in developing countries up to 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050.

HFC consumption

Developing countries

Developed countries


Velders et al., PNAS (2009)

http://www.unep.ch/ozone/highlights.shtml

Summary declaration from 108 parties of the Montreal Protocol in November 2010.

‘…to pursue further action under the Montreal Protocol aimed at transitioning the world to environmentally sound alternatives to HCFCs and CFCs.’

+ proposals to amend the Montreal Protocol to include HFCs.

The Future The Present The Past

CFCs & halons

HCFCs

HFCs (low GWP)

HFCs (high GWP)

Alternatives (zero GWP)

X

CO2 and HC


Political response:


Summary declaration from 108 parties of the Montreal Protocol in November 2010.

‘…to pursue further action under the Montreal Protocol aimed at transitioning the world to environmentally sound alternatives to HCFCs and CFCs.’

+ proposals to amend the Montreal Protocol to include HFCs.

The Future The Present The Past

CFCs & halons

HCFCs

HFCs (low GWP)

HFCs (high GWP)

Alternatives (zero GWP)

X

CO2 and HC


Political response:

Climate change ‘Ground Zero’ HFC regulation under the Montreal Protocol could be the second, global, legally binding, fully funded action specifically to protect climate

Proposal elements:   Depend on known alternative

chemicals, new technologies, and improved process/handling practices to reduce HFC consumption.

  Leave unchanged the provisions of the UNFCCC / Kyoto Protocol that govern HFC emissions.


Proposed Amendment of the Montreal Protocol to regulate HFCs (North American and Federated States of Micronesia Proposals: May 2010)

Developed nations

Developing nations

  Select 20 HFCs, gradual phasedown

  Report on production and consumption of HFCs, and HFC 23 byproduct emissions

  Provide funding under the Montreal Protocol s Multilateral Fund


What is happening in industry (car makers)

  Since the 1990s all mobile air-conditioners use HFC-134a (GWP = 1370)

  In EU: mobile air-conditioning directive: - Refrigerant should have GWP < 150 - From 2011 for new type of vehicles (derogation until 12/2012)   Alternatives available for HFC-134a: - HFC-1234yf (Drop-in replacement with GWP = 5) - CO2 promoted by German EPA (requires engine redesign)

  Meeting of Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama at Rancho Mirage, California on 8 June 2013.

  Will work together and with other countries to use the expertise and institutions of the Montreal Protocol to phasedown the production and consumption of HFCs.

G20 Summit, St. Petersburg September 2013

Initiatives for global phase down of HFCs in 2013

  6 September 2013: G-20 leaders expanded the support for using the expertise and institutions of the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of HFCs, while retaining HFCs within the scope of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol for accounting and reporting of emissions.

  This was agreed by the following countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union, as well as Ethiopia, Spain, Senegal, Brunei, Kazakhstan, and Singapore.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/

http://www.diplomacy.edu/

Summary Remarks

  The Montreal Protocol regulations have had a dual benefit: protecting ozone and climate.

  Past: The Montreal Protocol ODS reductions have protected the ozone layer and also protected climate: 5 - 6 times the reduction target of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol).   Present: The Montreal Protocol accelerated the HCFC

phaseout to further protect climate.

  Future: The Montreal Protocol regulations will lead to greatly increased HFC use. New proposed amendments would regulate HFC substitute gases and guide global refrigeration, AC, and foam applications use towards low-GWP alternatives.

  Grand challenge: The Montreal Protocol and Kyoto Protocol parties working together to minimize the climate impact in meeting the global application demand for synthetic gases in the developing world.

  Ongoing challenge: Identifying scientific contributions that provide the needed foundation for the climate change building.

References

Twenty Questions and Answers about the Ozone Layer:

2010 UpdateScientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010

World Meteorological Organization European Commission

United Nations Environment Programme National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Fahey, D.W., and M. I. Hegglin, Twenty questions and answers about the ozone layer: 2010 Update, in the UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010 http://ozone.unep.org/Assessment_Panels/

Velders, G., et al., The Montreal Protocol protection of climate, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2007.

Velders, G., et al., The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009.

Fahey, D., The Montreal Protocol protection of ozone and climate, Theoretical Inquires in Law, 2013.

Science has the first word on everything, but the last word on nothing." Victor Hugo

Thank you for your attention.

Backup slides

  The ?????.

Present: The accelerated HCFC phaseout (Montreal Protocol September 2007)

  Climate protection from HCFC phaseout (12-15 GtCO2-eq) is significant wrt to Kyoto Protocol targets

Velders et al., 2007

  Ultimately, climate benefit depends on choice of substitutes, i.e., low ODP, low-GWP options

Max HCFCs

  Advances phaseout by 10 years for developing nations.

 More for climate protection than ozone protection.

• The suite of known alternative chemicals, new technologies, and improved process/handling practices can significantly reduce HFC consumption while simultaneously supporting the HCFC phaseout. Relationship with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol: • The proposal is intended to support overall global efforts aimed at climate system protection.

• The proposal constitutes an amendment to the Montreal Protocol, and could be complemented by a related decision by the UNFCCC confirming the Montreal Protocol approach.

• Leaves unchanged the provisions of the UNFCCC / Kyoto Protocol that govern HFC emissions. Parties could follow Montreal Protocol obligations to meet certain UNFCCC obligations.

Amendment of the Montreal Protocol to regulate HFCs (North American and Federated States of Micronesia Proposals: May 2010)

  The proposal has not yet been adopted by the Montreal Protocol.

IPCC AR4 (2006)

Halocarbons = 0.34 Wm-2 = 20% of total RF of 1.66 Wm-2.

Global radiative forcing components in 2005

Halogen source gases undergo conversion in the stratosphere

  Halogen (Cl & Br) source gases undergo conversion in the stratosphere to more reactive forms

1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry: Rowland, Molina, Crutzen

Ozone destruction ODSs

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