The role of multiphase instabilities in Nature’s extremes ... · The role of multiphase...

TheroleofmultiphaseinstabilitiesinNature’sextremes

JennySuckale

SIGMAgroup,StanfordUniversity

ICE FIRE

ROCK WATER

Fractureorflow?

FRACTUREbut:

Aseismicdeformationandcreep?

FLOWbut:

Eruptionspeedsof100sm/s?

Fractureorflow?

FRACTURESlidingoverahydrologically

flushedfaultzone

FLOWStabilityofasolidmatrix

experiencingsustainedflow

Fractureorflow?


flushedfaultzone

ArtisticrepresentationbyZinaDeretsky,NationalScienceFoundation

FigurebyCooperElsworth

FigurebyCooperElsworthFigurebyCooperElsworth

PhotocourtesyofKurtCuffey,Berkeley

Flow:distributeddeformationSliding:localizeddeformation

Bed Elevation(Derived from Radar)


Bed Elevation(Derived from Radar)


⌧⇤ = f(�n � p)

p

Effectivenormalstress⌧⇤ = f(�n � p)

⌧⇤ = f(�n � p)

Shearstress ⌧⇤ = f(�n � p)

PhotocourtesyofMikeHambrey,TaylorGlacier,Antarctica,1987

Generalized model by Cooper Elsworth; see Elsworth and Suckale, 2016

CooperElsworth

Mechanical Model

Ice

yz

g

H

yz

ce

Tillα

W

Slip No Slip

Temperate FrozenForce Balance: Glen’s Law:

Ice

yz

g

H

yz

ce

Tillα

W

Slip No Slip


Thermal Model

FullyCoupled

0 10 100 1000

Ice Speed [m/yr]FigurebyCooperElsworth

Ice Speed[m/yr]

600

400

200

0

B

C

D

E

F

20 km

A

Data from NSIDC, Scambos et al., 1994

Distance from Margin [km]0510152025

Ice

Spee

d [m

/yr]

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

AB

C

DE

F

Simulations by Cooper Elsworth; see Elsworth and Suckale, 2016

Distance from Margin [km]0510152025

Ice

Spee

d [m

/yr]

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

AB

C

DE

F

Elsworth andSuckale,2016

SimulationsbyIndraneel Kasmalkar;CollaborationwithAndersDamsgaard andLiran Goren

Indraneel Kasmalkar

Grains:

Water:

Flowchannelization occursfirstattheshearmargin

Mechanical Model

Ice

yz

g

H

yz

ce

Tillα

W

Slip No Slip


⌧⇤ = f(�n � p)

freeboundaryGeneralized model by Cooper Elsworth; see Elsworth and Suckale, 2016

CooperElsworth

30

Distance from Stream Center [km]

2030405060700

10

20

Nor

mal

ized

Bas

alSh

ear S

tren

gth

10

duringcontraction,anincreaseintdand/oradecreaseinbasalresistancewouldhavetooccur.Sincechangesintdarelikelytooccuroverlongertimescalesthantheobservedrateofnarrowing,wesuspectthattheresponseofKIStocontractionwasnotfastenoughtocounterinevitableslowdown.

[12]Figure3showsthatwhentheDuckfootstagnated,flowstripesbecamestrandedandshearedastheflowdirec-tionchanged.SimilarfoldsareseenneartheSteersheadIceRiseandinthemouthofMercerIceStreamandarelikelyaresultoflocalizedflowredirection[HulbeandFahnestock,2005].Jacobeletal.[2000]illustratetheformationoftheDuckfootfoldsimilartoourFigure3buthereweusethedatesofmarginshutdownanddeformationlengthtodeter-mineanaveragepaleo-icestreamspeedbetween340and

Figure2.Ice-penetratingradardataacrosstwoKISmargins,clippeddatashowninblack.(a)2MHzradardataacrossbothmarginsalongB-B0.Notethestrongreturnsignalatroughlyhalftheicethicknessisasystemglitch.(bandc)100MHzradaracrossM1andM2alonglineA-A0.Somepickedlayersareshowninblack.

Figure3.SchematicofDuckfootstagnationandflow-stripedeformation.(a)KISpriorto340yearsago.(b)KIS150yearsago.

L14502CATANIAETAL.:KAMBICESTREAMSTAGNATIONL14502

3of4

Migration in <10 years

Shear margin width

Shear margin width


Surfa

ce V

eloc

ity [m

/yr]

600

400

200

0

30

Distance from Stream Center [km]

2030405060700

10

20

Nor

mal

ized

Bas

alSh

ear S

tren

gth

10


Water Film

Arterial Channels

Distributed Cavities

Margin Position

Basa

l Stre

ngth

Basa

l Stre

ngth

Basa

l Stre

ngth

Frozen

Temperate

Discontinuous Migration

Stable Margin

Continuous Migration


Fractureorflow?


flushedfaultzone

Flowcreatesapatchyfaultsurface(here:drypatchesactasasperities,lakesarezonesoffreeslip)

Flowintroducesadifferenttimescalethatcanleadtorapidrearrangementoftheslippingzone.

Ellsworthetal.,2015

Salt water disposal

Unknown

Enhanced oil recovery

FiguremodifiedfromWalshandZoback,2016

Injection rate in million of barrels (≈108 liter) per month

Fractureorflow?

FLOWStabilityofasolidmatrix

experiencingsustainedflow

Sleipner gasfield- theworld'sfirstoffshorecarboncaptureandstorageplant

transfers

CONTROL

VOLUME

CONTINUUM

PHASE FIELDS

LOCAL

SYSTEM

SCA

LE

solid grains (transparent)

liquid films

gas bubbles

fluxesgas

liquid

solid

FigurebyTobiasKeller

TobiasKeller

TobiasKeller

TobiasKeller

KellerandSuckale,inreview

Multiphasemechanics

3DGPU-basedcodebyLudovic Räss,seeRäss etal.,2018,SketchbyLøseth etal,2011

Ludovic Räss

ObservationModel

Simulations byLudovic Räss,seeRäss etal.,2018

Fractureorflow?

FLOWStabilityofcontinuousrockexperiencingsustainedflow

Sustainedflowaltersthestructuralintegrityofarockorgranularmatrix

FigurebyGoogleEarthImages

Top:Figure14.2fromRosi etal.,2013;Left:Figure4fromRipepe etal.,2007

NORMAL STROMBOLIAN EXPLOSIONS:largeinfrasonicpulses (>10Pa)every8-10min

PUFFING:small infrasonicpulses (≈1Pa)every1-2s

PASSIVE DEGASSING: continuousanddistributed

Experimental crystallinity datafromAgostini etal.2013;ComputationsfromSuckaleetal.2016

Crystallinity (%)

Pressure(M

Pa)

Tremor

VLPsignalTiltmeter

Seismic/strain

Subvolcanicmagmastorage

Plagiocla

se

Total

140m

75m

Plug(700-800m)

crystalbubble

TobiasKeller


Governingequations

KellerandSuckale,inpreparation;Permeability scaling fromBai etal.,2010

Regime1:Darcyflow

Plug

ΔP

Nooverpressure

Seealso:Michault etal.,2013;RisevelocityfromGaudin etal.,2017

Regime2:Degassingwaves

Gasexpansion Magmacreep

vs

Pressurepulsesevery1-2s

⌧⇤ = f(�n � p)

σ1 (vertical)

σ3 ||NW-SE

Suckaleetal.,2016

Regime3:Mushfailure

NASAISSImage:StromboliVolcano,Italy;CraterlocationsfromHarrisetal.1996;Suckaleetal.2016

1.9

2.0

2.1

τ[105 Pa]

Suckaleetal.,2016

Mushfailure(normal

explosions)

Degassingwaves

(puffing)

Darcyflow(passivedegassing)

Fractureorflow?

FLOWStabilityofcontinuousrockexperiencingsustainedflow

Sustainedflowaltersthestructuralintegrityofarockorgranularmatrix

Theinterplaybetweenflowandmatrixdeformationresultsinoverpressureandmayentailfailure

ICE FIRE

ROCK WATER

Conclusions:

1) Multiphaseinteractionsatthegranularscalecantriggerashiftinthesystem-scaledynamics.

2) Fractureandflowoftenoccursimultaneouslyandinteractmoredynamicallythanweusuallygivethemcreditfor.

3) Studyingextremeevent’sacrossdifferentnaturalsystemswithasimilarmodelincreasesopportunitiestorefute/validatemodels.

Lookdeepintonatureandyouwillunderstandeverythingbetter.– AlbertEinstein

@

Thankyou.

Minamisanriku, Japan:95%buildings destroyed60%populationmissing40%evacuationsitesflooded

Bottom:Arahama,MiyagiPrefecture;Top:Yamada,IwatePrefacture

100outof300kmofseawallsinTohokudestroyed.

Tohokuindarkgreen,source:Wiki

MITUrbanRiskLab,2012

MITUrbanRiskLab,2012

$6,800,000,000

70000pinetrees inRikuzentakata destroyed,exceptforone“miraclepine”.

Coastalmitigationpark,Constitución, Chile

Hillsizes:A:2.0x15mB:2.6x20mC:3.4x25mD:4.0x30m

Coastalmitigationpark,Constitución, Chile

Hillsizes:A:2.0x15mB:2.6x20mC:3.4x25mD:4.0x30m

?

Marras etal.,inpreparation

Viscousshallowwaterequations(NUMA2D)

Continuity:

Momentum:

Dynamicdissipationcoefficient:

Wetting&drying:0.1mthreshold

Giraldo etal.,2002;Abdi andGiraldo,2016;Marras etal.,inreview

Switchesviscosityon/off

Bathymetry Freesurface Dynamicdissipation

2Dsolitarywaverunup oncircularisland

Synolakis,1987;Marras etal.,inreview

Unstabilized

Stabilized

Initialcondition

Lunghino etal.,inpreparation;Carrieretal.,2003

⌧⇤ = f(�n � p)

?

Velocitym/yr

0 1500 3000

−10Gt /yr

+10Gt /yr

AmundsenSea

?

EricRignot,NASAJetPropulsionLaboratory,Paoloetal.,2015;MacGregor etal.,2013

Siple Coast

Fluidsolver

QinandSuckale,2017;Suckaleetal.,2010a,b;Suckaleetal.,2012a

Interfacesolver Solidsolver

MangaandStone,1993;Suckaleetal.,2010a;Cliftetal.,2005;QinandSuckale,2017.

LOG M-14

-13

-12

-11

-10

-9-8

-7

-6-5

-4-3

-1

0

1

23

4 56 7 8

SHPERICAL-CAP

WOBBLING

ELLIPSOIDAL

DIMPLEDELLIPSOIDAL-CAP

SKIRTED-2

SPHERICAL

1. Wake formation 2. Settling speed 3. Three-phase coupling

Suckaleetal.,2012a;QinandSuckale,2017;Taneda 1956;Belien etal.,2010.

Re≈80Bo≈105

ScalingfromVergniolle etal.,1996;PhotobyJaupart andVergniolle, 1988;

Re≈80Bo≈105

PhDthesisbyJennySuckaleandSuckaleetal.,2010a,2010b

Re≈80Bo≈105

Rayleigh-Taylor

instability

exponentialgrowth

breakup


Re≈80Bo≈105


Taneda 1956 and Belien et al., 2010; Suckale et al., 2012a,b; Qin and Suckale, in review

1. Wake formation 2. Settling speed 3. Three-phase coupling

TobiasKeller


Governingequations

Modifiedfigure11fromRipepe etal.2007

The role of multiphase instabilities in Nature’s extremes ... · The role of multiphase...

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