The Role of Gas in Energy Transition -...
Transcript of The Role of Gas in Energy Transition -...
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The Role of Gas in Energy Transition
Chris Gunner Shell Country Chairman, Japan
November 2016
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Definitions & cautionary note The New Lens Scenarios are part of an ongoing process used in shell for 40 years to challenge executives’ perspectives on the future business environment. We base them on plausible assumptions and quantification, and they are
designed to stretch management to consider even events that may be only remotely possible. Scenarios, therefore, are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes and investors should not rely on them when
making an investment decision with regard to Royal Dutch Shell plc securities.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where
references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used
where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc
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influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or
company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be,
forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could
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‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases.
There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including
(without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry
competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing
business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market
conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in
the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in
this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2015 (available at
www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward looking statements contained in this presentation and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only
as of the date of this presentation, 29 November 2016. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information,
future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.
We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this presentation that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to
consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov
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Industry context Substantial + long lasting shifts in energy landscape
November 2016
$
From 7 to nearly 10 billion by 2050 67% will live in cities
Global energy demand to double between 2000 & 2050
World needs more energy; less CO2
New sources New energy carriers New business models
OPEC, shales, shorter price cycles Requires new value creation models
Global population Growth in oil & gas demand Energy system in transition
Customer choice Continued oil price volatility Changing resources access
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“ 2 degree world”
Managing our emissions
Continued investing in gas
New energies business
November 2016
Global energy demand, million boe per day
Global energy mix IEA ‘450’ scenario
Energy consumption
Primary energy supply
Oil 32%
Coal 29%
Gas 21%
Renewables 4%
Nuclear 4%
13.7 btoe
9.4 btoe
4.3 btoe
Losses + transformation
Bio-energy 10%
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Coal
Bio-energy
Hydro
Other renewables
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Royal Dutch Shell
An unfolding global energy transition
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100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
NON-FOSSIL
OIL & GAS
COAL
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
-0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
history
decadal intervals
TRIANGLE
1850 1900 1920
1950
1970 2010
2050
2100
MOUNTAINS SCENARIO OCEANS SCENARIO IEA 450 PATHWAY TO 2040
DRIVEN BY TECHNOLOGY, POLICY & END-USER CHOICES
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Towards a lower-carbon future
6 November 2016
Shell is working to meet the energy challenge in many different ways
Bringing lower-carbon natural gas to a wider market
Industry leader in carbon capture and storage
A biofuels business
Investment in lower-carbon technologies, such as hydrogen and wind power
Continued investment in oil and gas to meet growing demand
Advocating government-led carbon-pricing mechanisms
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Case for gas
November 2016
Complements renewables
Lower CO2
235 years of reserves
Affordable
Innovation
Improves air quality
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MtCO2e, €/tonne CO2e
TWh
German Power Dynamics- “Coal plus renewables”
Gas Generation Coal GenerationCO2 €/tonne (RHS) Power Sector Emissions (RHS)Renewable Generation
A ‘gas plus renewables’ pathway decarbonises while ‘coal plus renewables’ does not
November 2016 Source: Aurora Energy
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MtCO2e, £/tonne CO2e
TWh UK Power Dynamics- “Gas plus Renewables”
Gas Generation Coal Generation CFP £/tonne (RHS)
Power Sector Emissions (RHS) Renewable Generation
UK carbon price floor drives coal-to-gas switching and
reduces emissions
Carbon prices & have failed to reduce CO2 emissions
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Perfect partners: Gas + Renewables
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Downstream LNG LNG to transport
Economic and environmental benefits
Cleaner than diesel and heavy fuel oil
Reduce well-to-wheel GHG emissions
Offers a compelling case to customers
Working across value chain to unlock demand
Marine Heavy-duty road transport
LNG truck re-fuelling station Rotterdam, Netherlands
November 2016
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New Energies Exploring new opportunities
Winning company in the
energy transition
Established credentials:
exploring options
New fuels
Cleaner
transportation
Biofuels + hydrogen
Integrated energy solutions
NL + USA wind
Solar for enhanced
oil recovery in Oman
Connected customer
Connected mobility
Connected energy
Integrated energy
solutions
New fuels
Connected customer
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Carbon capture and storage (CCS)
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CCS is key to delivering low carbon energy to meet growing demand
CCS technology is proven and is operational today
CCS can be cost competitive with other low carbon energy sources
CCS faces challenges – including political, societal, financial
Collaboration is key to ensuring CCS implementation across industry
Quest CCS started up at our oil sands operations in 2015 in Canada
Quest captures and stores more than one million tonnes of CO2 each year – equivalent to the emissions of about 250,000 cars
Shell and our joint-venture partners are freely sharing any data or intellectual property generated by the Quest project to help others advance CCS projects and demonstrate its value on an industrial scale
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Pro-active advocacy
A robust price on carbon through government
imposed carbon pricing mechanisms
Government support for early stage low carbon
technologies
Explore plausible futures in Shell scenarios
Work with governments on energy transitions
Collaborating with others to shape our energy future
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Expected to be largest floating facility ever
Capacity 3.6 mtpa LNG, 1.3mtpa condensate, 0.4 mtpa LPG
Shell operated in partnership with INPEX, KOGAS and OPIC
Under construction
PRELUDE FLNG
Turret mooring system and swivel – gas enters facility
Product storage within the hull
Gas inlet facilities
Acid gas and mercury removal
LNG and LPG loading arms
End flash, boil off & fuel gas
Utilities
Steam boilers Accommodation
Acid gas stripping, MEG regeneration
Liquefaction of natural gas into LNG
Flare boom
Separation of gas and liquids
PRELUDE FLNG FACILITY: LAYOUT
FLNG facility permanently moored near gas field. On board gas treatment, liquefaction and storage of produced LNG, LPG and condensate inside the hull.
Subsea gas gathering from wellheads and transfer of feed-gas through flexible risers to the FLNG facility.
LNG is off-loaded to standard LNG carriers that ship the products to markets globally.
FLNG: HOW DOES IT WORK