The Role of Gas in Energy Transition -...

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Copyright of Shell 1 The Role of Gas in Energy Transition Chris Gunner Shell Country Chairman, Japan November 2016 To change the picture, delete the sample picture. Then click the insert picture icon in the middle of the picture box. If you paste a picture into the empty picture box, you will need to use the Reset Slide command to see the picture cut-out.

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The Role of Gas in Energy Transition

Chris Gunner Shell Country Chairman, Japan

November 2016

To change the picture, delete the sample picture.

Then click the insert picture icon in the middle of the picture box. If you paste a picture into the empty picture box, you

will need to use the Reset Slide command to see the

picture cut-out.

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Definitions & cautionary note The New Lens Scenarios are part of an ongoing process used in shell for 40 years to challenge executives’ perspectives on the future business environment. We base them on plausible assumptions and quantification, and they are

designed to stretch management to consider even events that may be only remotely possible. Scenarios, therefore, are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes and investors should not rely on them when

making an investment decision with regard to Royal Dutch Shell plc securities.

The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where

references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used

where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc

either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to “joint ventures” and “joint operations” respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant

influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or

company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.

This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be,

forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could

cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal

Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as

‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases.

There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including

(without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry

competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing

business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market

conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in

the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in

this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2015 (available at

www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward looking statements contained in this presentation and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only

as of the date of this presentation, 29 November 2016. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information,

future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.

We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this presentation that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to

consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov

November 2016 2

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Industry context Substantial + long lasting shifts in energy landscape

November 2016

$

From 7 to nearly 10 billion by 2050 67% will live in cities

Global energy demand to double between 2000 & 2050

World needs more energy; less CO2

New sources New energy carriers New business models

OPEC, shales, shorter price cycles Requires new value creation models

Global population Growth in oil & gas demand Energy system in transition

Customer choice Continued oil price volatility Changing resources access

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“ 2 degree world”

Managing our emissions

Continued investing in gas

New energies business

November 2016

Global energy demand, million boe per day

Global energy mix IEA ‘450’ scenario

Energy consumption

Primary energy supply

Oil 32%

Coal 29%

Gas 21%

Renewables 4%

Nuclear 4%

13.7 btoe

9.4 btoe

4.3 btoe

Losses + transformation

Bio-energy 10%

Gas

Oil

Nuclear

Coal

Bio-energy

Hydro

Other renewables

4

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Royal Dutch Shell

An unfolding global energy transition

November 2016 5

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

NON-FOSSIL

OIL & GAS

COAL

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

-0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

history

decadal intervals

TRIANGLE

1850 1900 1920

1950

1970 2010

2050

2100

MOUNTAINS SCENARIO OCEANS SCENARIO IEA 450 PATHWAY TO 2040

DRIVEN BY TECHNOLOGY, POLICY & END-USER CHOICES

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Towards a lower-carbon future

6 November 2016

Shell is working to meet the energy challenge in many different ways

Bringing lower-carbon natural gas to a wider market

Industry leader in carbon capture and storage

A biofuels business

Investment in lower-carbon technologies, such as hydrogen and wind power

Continued investment in oil and gas to meet growing demand

Advocating government-led carbon-pricing mechanisms

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Case for gas

November 2016

Complements renewables

Lower CO2

235 years of reserves

Affordable

Innovation

Improves air quality

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

MtCO2e, €/tonne CO2e

TWh

German Power Dynamics- “Coal plus renewables”

Gas Generation Coal GenerationCO2 €/tonne (RHS) Power Sector Emissions (RHS)Renewable Generation

A ‘gas plus renewables’ pathway decarbonises while ‘coal plus renewables’ does not

November 2016 Source: Aurora Energy

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

MtCO2e, £/tonne CO2e

TWh UK Power Dynamics- “Gas plus Renewables”

Gas Generation Coal Generation CFP £/tonne (RHS)

Power Sector Emissions (RHS) Renewable Generation

UK carbon price floor drives coal-to-gas switching and

reduces emissions

Carbon prices & have failed to reduce CO2 emissions

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Perfect partners: Gas + Renewables

November 2016 9

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Downstream LNG LNG to transport

Economic and environmental benefits

Cleaner than diesel and heavy fuel oil

Reduce well-to-wheel GHG emissions

Offers a compelling case to customers

Working across value chain to unlock demand

Marine Heavy-duty road transport

LNG truck re-fuelling station Rotterdam, Netherlands

November 2016

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New Energies Exploring new opportunities

Winning company in the

energy transition

Established credentials:

exploring options

New fuels

Cleaner

transportation

Biofuels + hydrogen

Integrated energy solutions

NL + USA wind

Solar for enhanced

oil recovery in Oman

Connected customer

Connected mobility

Connected energy

Integrated energy

solutions

New fuels

Connected customer

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Carbon capture and storage (CCS)

November 2016 12

CCS is key to delivering low carbon energy to meet growing demand

CCS technology is proven and is operational today

CCS can be cost competitive with other low carbon energy sources

CCS faces challenges – including political, societal, financial

Collaboration is key to ensuring CCS implementation across industry

Quest CCS started up at our oil sands operations in 2015 in Canada

Quest captures and stores more than one million tonnes of CO2 each year – equivalent to the emissions of about 250,000 cars

Shell and our joint-venture partners are freely sharing any data or intellectual property generated by the Quest project to help others advance CCS projects and demonstrate its value on an industrial scale

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Pro-active advocacy

A robust price on carbon through government

imposed carbon pricing mechanisms

Government support for early stage low carbon

technologies

Explore plausible futures in Shell scenarios

Work with governments on energy transitions

Collaborating with others to shape our energy future

Copyright of Shell

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Expected to be largest floating facility ever

Capacity 3.6 mtpa LNG, 1.3mtpa condensate, 0.4 mtpa LPG

Shell operated in partnership with INPEX, KOGAS and OPIC

Under construction

PRELUDE FLNG

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Turret mooring system and swivel – gas enters facility

Product storage within the hull

Gas inlet facilities

Acid gas and mercury removal

LNG and LPG loading arms

End flash, boil off & fuel gas

Utilities

Steam boilers Accommodation

Acid gas stripping, MEG regeneration

Liquefaction of natural gas into LNG

Flare boom

Separation of gas and liquids

PRELUDE FLNG FACILITY: LAYOUT

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FLNG facility permanently moored near gas field. On board gas treatment, liquefaction and storage of produced LNG, LPG and condensate inside the hull.

Subsea gas gathering from wellheads and transfer of feed-gas through flexible risers to the FLNG facility.

LNG is off-loaded to standard LNG carriers that ship the products to markets globally.

FLNG: HOW DOES IT WORK

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