The Roadmap to an Electrified Car Market - lbma.org.uk 2017/S5_AB.pdf · The Roadmap to an...
Transcript of The Roadmap to an Electrified Car Market - lbma.org.uk 2017/S5_AB.pdf · The Roadmap to an...
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The Roadmap to an Electrified Car Market How will Targets for the End of the Combustion Engine be Met?
Al Bedwell, LMC Automotive LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference Barcelona, October 16, 2017
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• European Electrification in a Global Context
• What’s Driving Change in Europe
• Update on Current Situation
• Outlook
• Wrapping Up
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China Japan USA Europe
BEV xHEV1,154,000 Battery Electric Vehicle
% o
f N
ew C
ar &
US
Ligh
t Tr
uck
Sal
es
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Regional Electrification 2016 Passenger Car and US Light Truck Market
• BEVs in use were just 0.1% of pass cars & US light in 2016 (1mn of 1bn)
• After 10+ years of sales, only Japan has really embraced electrification
• China is unique due to 50% BEV share of electrified sales
World: Hybrid & EV Market 2016
440,000 512,000 500,000
All Hybrid Types
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• European Electrification in a Global Context
• What’s Driving Change in Europe
• Update on Current Situation
• Outlook
• Wrapping Up
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Europe • UK: 2040, no IC-only car sales; Oxford 2020?
• France: 2040, no IC car sales (?); Paris 2030
• Germany: No date; says UK/FR approach is ‘right’
• Norway: No ban, but sales by 2025 ‘should be ZEV’
• Austria, Denmark, Ireland, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain: EV targets
Elsewhere • India: 2030, all passenger cars to be battery electric (!?)
• Japan, Korea: No ban, EV targets set
• China: Studying timeline to IC ban
• US: No nationwide target, some states have EV targets
World: Targets for Removal of IC Vehicles
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0%
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• CO2 fell less sharply in 2016: SUV boom & falling diesel share?
• Post-2021 target announcement may be imminent
Fle
et C
O2 (
gm/k
m)
YoY
CO
2 R
ed
uct
ion
Rat
e
Source: European Environment Agency, CCFA, JATO
118.1 (2016)
EU28 Passenger Car CO2 Emission Trend
95
50?
130
73?
annual achievement
YoY
CO2 achieved Annual change Target (set)
International comparison: China 2025 gm/km CO2: 93 US 2025 gm/km CO2: 100
super credits
Target (likely)
Europe: Update on CO2: Achievements & Targets
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g-1
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No
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Max diesel >55%, now 43%
W. Europe Passenger Cars: Diesel versus Electrification
• Diesel decline started in 2011 but accelerated after the VW problems
• Much diesel is being substituted by gasoline, but also by HEV (not by BEV)
• Share of all electrified types reached 5.7% in July of this year
Die
sel %
of
New
Car
Sal
es
Source: National Sources
Hyb
rid
/EV
% o
f N
ew C
ar S
ale
s
VW dieselgate
BEV
xHEV
Diesel
Europe: A Move from Diesel to Electric?
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Paris to phase out diesel cars
by 2024 Olympics 12/10/17
Madrid vows to ban diesel-
fuelled cars by 2025 2/12/16
Europe: The Pressure on Diesel Keeps Building
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30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Diesel Market Evolution: W. Europe Cars, Base Case
Great Recession, scrappage incentives
• Nervousness about investing in diesel is growing (for OEM and car buyer)
• But core strengths of diesel mean it will endure at least in some segments
Die
sel %
of
New
Car
Sal
es
Source: LMC Automotive European LV Diesel Forecast. Includes DHEV 32.6%
RDE, Increasing after-treatment costs
Substitution by gasoline MHEV, pre-EU6 city bans
Urban diesel- free zones?
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
6.45 6.85 6.91 6.43 6.02 5.89 5.72 5.38 5.24 5.13 4.89
Better gasoline engines, worse fiscal situation for diesel
Dieselgate, image problems, falling residuals
Europe: More Pain for the Diesel Car Market
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
W. Europe Passenger Cars: Share of SUV/Crossovers
• The shift to crossover types seems relentless and has an impact on CO2
• Example: Kia Stonic 1.4 gas MT has FE/CO2 10% worse than Rio 1.4L MT
SUV
% o
f N
ew C
ar S
ale
s
Source: LMC Automotive
Europe: Those Pesky Car Buyers Keep Choosing SUVs
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• European Electrification in a Global Context
• What’s Driving Change in Europe
• Update on Current Situation
• Outlook
• Wrapping Up
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-20
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7BEV EREV FCEV FHEV MHEV PHEV
• Share reached a new peak in recent times on strong FHEV demand
• But for most car buyers the plug-in offer simply isn’t compelling (yet)
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
5-year Monthly Hybrid & EV Share
Sales pulled forward W. Europe Passenger Car Market
Ele
ctri
fie
d %
of
New
Car
Sal
es
An
nu
alis
ed
Mo
nth
ly G
row
th (
%)
YoY (right axis)
Europe: Hybrid & EV Market - Share
5.7%
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD Aug
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• Transparent incentive schemes that mitigate higher prices work best
• Inconsistent/poorly communicated ones = boom & bust/little impact
Ele
ctri
fie
d %
of
New
Car
Sal
es
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Norway hybrid/EV
Circa 50%
4.4%
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Germany hybrid/EV
Hybrid & EV Trend by W. Europe Market
Aug-17: 3.5%
incentives
Europe: Well Structured Incentives = Solid Growth
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non plug-in plug-in
• SP + IT: Weak infrastructure, unstable incentives = low plug-in sales
• Norway’s big incentives lead, but only ZEV schemes will endure
Ele
ctri
fie
d N
ew C
ar S
ale
s (‘
00
0s)
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Electrified Sales by Market & Macro-Type, YTD Aug 2017
Europe: Support for Plug-ins Varies Hugely
Strong support
Weak support
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Hyundai BMW Geely R-N Daimler VW PSA Honda Tata Ford
2016h1 2017h1
• Hyundai has hits with the Niro & Ioniq (but hard to make money)
• VW has seen its electrified share fall further this year
Ele
ctri
fie
d %
of
New
Car
Sal
es
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Hybrid & EV Trend by OEM, W. Europe Car Sales
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ToyotaEle
ctri
fie
d %
of
Ne
w C
ar S
ale
s
Europe: OEM Hybrid & EV Profile has a Big Range
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Europe: Few new BEVs, but Current ones Improving
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• European Electrification in a Global Context
• What’s Driving Change in Europe
• Update on Current Situation
• Outlook
• Wrapping Up
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Europe: OEMs are Racing to Meet Expected Demand
OEM Strategy Overview HEV + BEV BEV
BMW group 15-25% of sales electrified by 2025. Mix of standalone & bespoke BEVs ?? 12 by 2025
Daimler Electrified versions of all M-B range by 2022, Smart all BEV 'at some point' 50 by 2022 >10 by 2022
FCA Half of FCA fleet electrified by 2022 50% by 2022 ??
Ford 13 new electrified vehicles globally in next 5 years 13 by 2022 1st dedicated BEV 2020
Hyundai-Kia Electrify core models, plus standalone BEVs 31 by 2020 8 by 2020
JLR New models all hybrid or EV from 2020 At least 1 by 2020
PSA Electrify core models, no standalone BEVs 11 by 2023 4 by 2023
R-N New common electrified electrified platforms 12 ZEV by 2022
Toyota Hybrid remains core tech, BEV mass production from 2020 Several by 2020
Volvo All new models hybrid or EV from 2019, no IC-only by circa 2024 5 by 2021
VW At least 1 electrified version of all models by 2030 80 by 2025 50 by 2025
Minimum 100 new BEVs by 2025
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real world
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fast
e-R
ange
(km
)
e-Range: average max e-Range of mass-market EV
• Claimed range of mass market cars rose by average 40% for 2017MY
• Battery pack wholesale cost is reckoned to be circa $200/kWh in 2017
• Battery cost dropped 80% over 6 years, $100/kWh possible by 2020?
• Charge point infrastructure problems include investment & grid issues
390km
430Km
Typical BEV battery pack cost ($/kWh)
W. Europe public charge points (‘000s)
640
70 Ch
arge
rs (
‘00
0s)
Bat
tery
pac
k ($
/kW
h)
lift-off?
lift-off?
lift-off?
Europe: Evolution of Key BEV Enablers
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2015 2018 2021 2024 2027
BEV EREV FCEV FHEV MHEV PHEV PFCEV MHEV (48V)
% o
f C
ar S
ale
s
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Outlook for Electrification by Technology Europe + CIS Passenger Cars 12.4mn sales
60%!
• New generation hybrids start to achieve real volume from 2018
• BEVs accelerate from mid-2020s, reaching 15% of market by 2027
• Fuel cells remain niche over this time period
Europe: Hybrid & EV Base Case Forecast (July 2017)
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100W. Europe Car Market
IC-only (gasoline)
• IC-only disappears well before 2040!
• FCEV gets in to the picture
% o
f N
ew C
ar S
ale
s
Source: LMC Automotive Forecast
28%
IC-only (diesel)
BEV
PHEV
MHEV+FHEV
FCEV
5%
50%
15% 0% IC-only (CNG/LPG)
MHEV(48V)
2%
Europe: 50-Year Fuel & Technology Picture
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• Europe Electrification in a Global Context
• What’s Driving Change in Europe
• Update on Current Situation
• Outlook
• Wrapping Up
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Source: LMC Automotive
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BEV car sales (mn)
Jan-17 8%
Jul-17 16%
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PHEV car sales (mn) Jan-17 5.6%
Jul-17 3.9%
• NEV ‘cap and trade’ scheme will be introduced from 2019 after a 1 year delay
• OEMs will have to achieve a NEV score of 10 points in 2019, 12 in 2020
• OEMS selling at least 30,000 cars will have to comply, buy credits or face fines
China: NEV Quotas will Push Global EV Spend
LMC Automotive China NEV Forecast Revisions
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BMW, 15k/Y
Mercedes, 8k/Y
Changan, 80k/Y
SAIC, 140k/Y
BYD: 250k/Y
China OEM: • Geely • BYD • BAIC • SAIC • JAC & JMC
GAC: 140k/Y
Toyota: 15k/Y
Geely, 200k/Y Lynk, 15k/Y Volvo, 15k/Y Global OEM:
• VW • GM • Renault-Nissan • Volvo • Mercedes-Benz & BMW
VW, 15k/Y
VW, 50k/Y
GM, 50k/Y
Hyundai, 15k/Y
BAIC, 240K/Y
Toyota: 8k/Y
• Traditional giants continue to lead the market, and occupy more than 90% market share • China OEM vs. Global OEM
China: NEV - Traditional OEMs
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Shijiazhuang: Chery, ¥3 (Bn.), ? k/Y
Hangzhou: Wanxiang, ¥2.75 (Bn.), 50k/Y
Beijing: BJ EV, ¥1.15 (Bn.), 20k/Y
Tianjin: NEVS, ¥4.27(Bn.), 50k/Y
Sanmenxia: Suda, ¥2.65 (Bn.), 100k/Y
Qingdao: BJ EV, ¥1.15 (Bn.), 50k/Y
Chongqing: Jinkang, ¥2.51(Bn.), 50k/Y
Wuhu: Chery, ¥2.05 (Bn.), 85k/Y
Suzhou: Qiantu, ¥2.02 (Bn.), 50k/Y
Changzhou: BJ EV, ¥10(Bn.), 400k/Y
Huai’an: Min’an, ¥2.50 (Bn.), 50k/Y
Hangzhou: Changjiang, ¥0.80 (Bn.), 50k/Y
Jiaxing: Hozon, ¥0.97 (Bn.), 50k/Y
Nanchang: Jiangling, ¥1.33 (Bn.), 50k/Y
Putian: Yudo, ¥1.89 (Bn.), 65k/Y
Lanzhou: Zhidou, ¥0.89(Bn.), 40k/Y
Jiujiang: BJ EV, ¥14.0 (Bn.), 10k/Y
- In construction or in planning
China: NEV - New Players (Qualified)
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Wuhan: NextEV, ¥30 (Bn.), 200k/Y
Zhaoqing: Xpeng, ¥10 (Bn.), 10k/Y
Wuhu: Zhiche, ¥3 (Bn.), 100k/Y
Nanjing: FMC, ¥11.6 (Bn.), 300k/Y
Changzhou: Chehejia, ¥5(Bn.), 300k/Y
Nanjing: Bordrin, ¥10 (Bn.), 100k/Y
Wenzhou: VM Motor, ¥6.7 (Bn.), 200k/Y
Huzhou: Youxia, ¥11.5 (Bn.), 200k/Y
Deqing: LeSee, ¥20 (Bn.), 400k/Y
Ganzhou: Sinomach, ¥8.0 (Bn.), 100k/Y
Shangrao: AICEV, ¥13.3 (Bn.), 150k/Y
Wuxi: Yogomo, ¥3(Bn.), 150k/Y
Jinhua: Leap Motor, ¥2.5 (Bn.), 50k/Y
China: NEV - New Players (Applying)
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2015 2018 2021 2024 2027
BEV EREV FCEV FHEV MHEV PHEV PFCEV MHEV (48V)
% o
f C
ar +
US
LT S
ale
s
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Outlook for Electrification by Technology World Passenger Cars & US Light Trucks
36.3mn sales 35.0%
• Mild hybrid with 48V becomes the leading electrified technology
• 10% of global car sales are BEV in 2027: 10mn vehicles
• We think FCEV is coming but remains is a technology for the 2030s
World: Hybrid & EV Base Case Forecast (July 2017)
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Expectation Risk
Battery EVs will be a viable mass market alternative to conventional IC by mid- next decade
MH
EV
PH
EV
BEV
s Wrapping Up
New generation gasoline mild hybrids with 48V will proliferate, plugging the CO2 gap left by declining diesel
BEV cost reduction, incentive taper & worse WLTP rating result in PHEV losing out to true ZEV solutions
Ener
gy
Charging infrastructure does not roll out as expected – home charging will dominate, but public network needed
There are still some cost questions to be answered but pressure to find solutions may override these
Incentives support PHEV to a greater degree than expected, cost of PHEV falls faster than anticipated
Policy does not support this – green levies and feed-in tariffs to support transition phase are withdrawn
Cost of renewable energy continues to fall significantly, enabling low well-to-wheel emissions and ultimately FCEV
For any further questions, please contact: [email protected]
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