The Roadmap of cooperation between Russia and the European Union in the energy sector until 2050...
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The Roadmap of cooperation between Russia and the European Union in the energy sector until 2050 Institute of Energy Strategy Deputy General Director Alexey Gromov The EU-Russia Energy Dialogue Brussels, 18 th February 2011
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Transcript of The Roadmap of cooperation between Russia and the European Union in the energy sector until 2050...
The Roadmap of cooperation between Russia and the European Union in
the energy sector until 2050
Institute of Energy StrategyDeputy General Director
Alexey Gromov
The EU-Russia Energy DialogueBrussels, 18th February 2011
EU and Russia: energy market interdependence
• Energy markets are globalizing
• Russia is a key supplier of energy for EU
• EU is a key market of energy for Russia
• Oil market as global factor
• LNG market is globalizing
• Russia develops alternative export markets
• EU develops alternative import sources
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Russia and EU need common long-term Energy Vision
• Long-term global social and economic vision
• Nature – Society – People system
• Mathematical modeling
• global energy modeling
• macroeconomics modeling
• Technology foresight
• energy foresight
• non-energy foresight
• Energy sector analysis
• Key trends
• Key events
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Fact
Reference scenario
Stagnation scenario
Innovative scenario
- Energy-intensive
- Energy savings
- Energy efficiency
Global energy trends: shift to the developing countries
CO2 emission, billion tonnes
4
Global energy consumption, btoe
Fact OECDReference scenario, OECDStagnation scenario, OECDInnovative scenario, OECD
Fact non-OECDReference scenario, non-OECDStagnation scenario, non-OECDInnovative scenario, non-OECD
0
4
8
12
16
20
2010 2050, referencescenario
2050,stagnationscenario
2050,innovativescenario
Oil Gas CoalNuclear Biomass HydroNew renewables
Reference scenario –carbon-intensive + geopolitics
Stagnation scenario – renewables + climate policy
Innovative scenario –smart energy + market
Uncertainty is very high
Renewables are key factor
Radical change in energy mix may happen and may not
btoe
5
Global energy trends: shift to the low-carbon energy
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2010 2050,referencescenario
2050,stagnationscenario
2050,innovativescenario
Oil Gas CoalNuclear Biomass Hydro
New renewables
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2010 2050,referencescenario
2050,stagnationscenario
2050,innovativescenario
Fossil fuel Nuclear
Hydro Renewables
European energy market:
uncertainty is related with renewables and regulation
EU electricity generation, bln mWh
7
EU primary energy consumption, mtoe
EU share in global primary energy demand declines from 14,5% to 11-12%
European energy market: shift from commodities to service and to technology
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•Energy efficiency: €40 bln in 2009•Energy service: €10 bln in 2009•Smart grids: €30 bln in 2009•Renewable energy market: €50 bln in 2009•Carbon markets: €70 bln in 2009•EU as the global leader in new low-carbon energy
Energy commodities market2010
Energy service market2030
Energy technology market2050
Russia in global energy sector
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Trend Risk for Russia Requirement for Russia Slowing demand for Russian energy
Slowing growth of economy & export
Optimization of export pipeline projects
Shift of demand to Asia
Growing competition in Europe
New export destinations in Asia
End of oil era Economic crisis Reduce dependence on oil exports
Climate policy Limited export opportunities
New markets
New-generation energy sector
Irreversible lag for Russia in energy and economy
Modernization and innovative development of energy and economy
To achieve these goals,Russia needs cooperation with European Union
Key challenge for Russia:
oil prices: wave dynamics and downward trend
Downward trend
From commodity market to service & technology market
Volatility reduction
The end of oil business
Долл. 2009 г. за баррель
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Фактические цены Brent Инерционный сценарий
Стагнационный сценарий Инновационный сценарий
FactStagnation scenario
Reference scenarioInnovative scenario
EU and Russia cooperation: common opportunities
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Oil & gas Energy efficiency ModernizationArctic fields development
EU-Russia Centre for energy innovation
Common investment in Russia
Projects of common interest
Cooperation in renewable energy
Interconnection of power systems
Oil prices forecast Heating efficiency in Russia: EU experience is needed
Cooperation in smart greed developmentOil market
regulationCommon vision of the transit problem
Regional and municipal energy cooperation
Import of equipment and technology
Creation of common pan-European energy space is a key goalObjective differences between Russia and EU should be regarded
Thank you for your attention!
Institute of Energy Strategywww.energystrategy.ruTel. +7(495) 698-52-34
Е-mail: [email protected]
