The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh...
Transcript of The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh...
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#cleantechSF
Thank youThe Rising Stars
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#cleantechSF
The Rising Stars
MODERATED BY
KATIE MCCLAINDirector, Market Development, Energize Ventures
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#cleantechSF
The Rising Stars
MATT HARPERPresident & Chief Product Officer, Avalon Battery
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Cleantech Forum 2019
Rising Stars Session
Matt Harper
President and Chief Product Officer
[email protected] • December 2018
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Avalon Overview
5
Avalon designs, builds and
delivers the world’s most
dependable flow batteries.
→ MW-scale projects with leading
customers in the US and China
→ Externally validated lowest
total cost of ownership
→ Targeting the rapidly maturing
long-duration, heavy duty cycle
storage market.
→ Largest fleet of identical flow
batteries ever installed (140+
units in operation)
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Avalon’s product: standardization as the path to low cost and reliability
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Most flow batteries: Built in place, high
construction costs, poor reliability
Avalon flow battery: 13 years’ work
yields world’s first turn-key, factory
manufactured vanadium flow battery:
Avalon’s highly standardized approach yields:
✓ Proven reliable performance for decades of deep cycles
✓ Economies of scale and quality assurance for entire product
✓ Low-cost, reliable turn-key installation at site
✓ Lowest full-lifecycle total cost of ownership
12.7
9.97.9
2.9
Avalon(today)
Li-ion(today)
Space Avalon(2025)
Li-ion(2025)
Avalon Li-ion Avalon Li-ion
2018 2025
+238%+61%
Result: Durable technology and
manufacturing scale yield ultra-low total
cost of ownership ($USD LCOS, below)
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Avalon established and growing across fastest growing geographies and
applications for storage
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Current Avalon’s installations
Vancouver, BC
• 2015–2018
• 125 kWh
Qinghai, China
• 2018
• 2 MWh
Daejeon, Korea
• 2017
• 27 kWh
Iowa
• 2018
• 1 MWh
California
• 2016–2018
• 390 kWhWestern Australia
• 2018
• 50 kWh
Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using
solar storage to power facility, avoiding
interconnection and energy costs
Avalon Solution: 90kWh, 30kW AFB2
Operational November 2018
IRR (unlevered): 140%
Industrial customer in Pomona, CA using
storage to mitigate demand charges and
shift energy alongside existing PV array
Avalon Solution: 90kWh, 30kW AFB2
Operational October 2017
IRR (unlevered) 22%
US renewable energy project will use
batteries to reduce clipping and optimize
plant, boosting energy delivered under PPA
Avalon Solution: 4MW, 16MWh AFB3
Proposal delivered; COD anticipated Q4
2019
IRR (unlevered) 11.3%
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0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
2019 2020 2021 2022
Avalon Sales Pipeline by Application
Front of meter solar + storage Wind + storage
Grid Storage Only Behind meter solar + storage
Microgrid
Evolution of pipeline over next four years
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Front of
meter solar +
storage
Front of
meter
storage-only
Behind the
meter solar +
storage
Wind + storage
Microgrid
Long Run Drivers
Microgrid
• Huge opportunity in developing
world (BRICS+ industrials)
• Large industrials (eg mines) likely
to dominate volume early
Behind the
meter solar +
storage
• Continued expansion of BTM sales
model
• Scale of individual projects small
Front of meter
storage-only
• Significant growth as capacity
markets expand and business
models standardize.
• Single project size very larger
Wind + storage• First projects in China underway;
ROW to follow.
Front of meter
solar + storage
• PPA structures in USA starting to
require storage as an option.
• Combination of PPA adder and
capacity payments = stable model
for growth.
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Looking to the future
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• Niche and policy-driven projects will be fewer
• Standardized applications will emerge
• Standardized financial and contract structures will follow
Standard
Commercial
Models
• Longer duration applications gain traction
• Contract terms will extend beyond 10 years
• Duty cycles will drive technology specialization
Product
Differentiation
2
1
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Product differentiationLong- and short-duration storage applications will co-exist
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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
6-10 hours 12.4 23.9 46.4 69.4 91.7 123.8 195.6 256.9 459.9 527.8
4-6 hours 7.6 135.2 251.2 57.4 399.1 224.1 253.0 1020.4 1580.1 1774.7
2-4 hours 148.1 146.6 197.2 626.3 506.5 992.9 1506.7 1547.3 2127.3 2498.0
0-2 hours 123.9 125.3 169.1 216.2 279.0 317.4 326.0 329.4 334.8 340.1
0.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.0
(MW
)
Navigant - Country Forecasts for Utility-Scale Energy Storage, 2017
US Utility Scale Power Capacity Additions by Duration
AFB3 will better address the 4 - 10 hour
segments, which are forecast to be the
fastest growing over the medium term
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Lithium-ion
Ford EcoBoost M-6007-35T
• Power: 365 hp
• Cost: 9,600 USD
• Design life: 3,500 hr
• Specific cost: 26 USD/hp
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• Cost competitive for short-duration applications
• Short life in terms of cycles and years
• Established product with good bankability
►Best suited for power-focused applications
• Cost competitive for longer-duration applications
• Long life in terms of cycles and years
• Emerging product with improving bankability
►Best suited for the energy-focused applications
Caterpillar CATC 1.1
• Power: 20 hp
• Cost: 4,000 USD
• Design life: 100,000 hr
• Specific cost: 200 USD/hp
Analogy to internal combustion engines
►Best suited for power-focused applications ►Best suited for energy-focused applications
Product differentiationDifferent storage solutions will serve different needs
Avalon
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Standard commercial modelsLow total LCOE = Renewables plus storage as new baseload
1) Values for conventional energy sources based on „Lazard‘s levelized cost of energy analysis – Version 11.0“ (Nov 17), see backup slide;
2) Conservative assumption of August 2018 values in EU (17.5 EUR/tCO2 ~ 20 USD/tCO2); 3) Assumptions for 2025; 4) Combined cycle gas
turbine
Need for new generation capacities due to
• Policy-driven retirement of
conventional generators
• Retirement of old generators
• Demand for more
dispatchable generators due
to high VRE share
Retirement
Flexibility need
Demand growth• Emerging markets: Overall
market growth
• Mature markets: Electric
vehicle adoption, etc.
2
2.8
15.6
64.2
19.7
11.2
5.4
8.3
3.6
8.4
7.1
PV +Storage
GasPeaker
Coal CCGT Diesel Nuclear
4.8
21.9
15.8
8.5
29.3
18.3
LCOE
VRE
LCOS
Avalon
LCOE comparison1 (USDct/kWh)
3
CO2
price2
High-end
of range
4
Low-end
of range
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Report:
“Impacts of High Variable
Renewable Energy Futures
on Wholesale Electricity
Prices, and on Electric-Sector
Decision Making”
13
Standard commercial modelsTime shifting driven by market price signals
Economical addition of energy storage to VRE possible with increasing share of renewables1, e.g., at a total
share of 40% – expected to be reached between 2020 and 2030 depending on market2
1) See following slide for assessment; 2) CleanTechnica (2017) – 50% CAISO renewables target for 2030 expected to be reached by 2020
Profitable
operation based
on Avalon’s 2025
LCOS of 28
USD/MWh for
market-based
“time-shift only”
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
VRE only VRE+Storage
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Standard commercial models:Demand curve getting steeper, increasing opportunities for arbitrage
• New VRE and storage assets must be financed
based on expected electricity prices, i.e., the
applicable price must be higher than the LCOE
• Spreads between peak and valley price that are
larger than LCOS make it economically feasible to
add storage to VRE and time shift the electricity
• Price setting based on marginal cost of most
expensive plant (“merit order”)
• Increasing share of VRE leading to lower valley
prices (“merit order effect”)
• Independent from VRE, peak prices may
increase, further widening the spread
Energy
demand
Marginal costs
(USD/MWh)
Capacity(GW)
Marginal costs
(USD/MWh)
VRE Other
1) See study results by Berkely Labs on next slides, „High solar“ scenario“; 2) Valley and peak price set by marginal costs of most expensive
plant that is required („merit order“, see left); 3) Assumptions for 2025
“Valley price” without adding additional VRE
“Valley price” with adding additional VRE
USDct/kWh)
Peak price2
(substantial VRE)
Valley price2
(substantial VRE)
LCOE3
(VRE)
Time shift
Spread
Profit
Profit
Capacity(GW)
…
… LCOE3
(VRE)
LCOS3
(Avalon)
55
55
25
21% renewables
40% renewables
Example: California1 Example: California1
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Avalon Battery
Matt Harper
President and Chief Product Officer
+1-604-866-3833 • December 2018
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#cleantechSF
The Rising Stars
JO-JO HUBBARDCOO & Co-Founder, Electron
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Cleantech Forum: Rising Stars
January 29th 2019
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18
Electron thesis
Design and build the digital
infrastructure that enables the
transition to cheaper, greener,
cleaner power
Mission Infrastructure thesis Blockchain thesis
Increasingly complex markets
and contractual relationships
will be indexed by a shared
asset register
The coordination mechanism to
align incentives and create
transparency between market
participants
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Data fragmentation
▪ Siloed, inconsistent and missing data – no
view of the whole system
Market fragmentation
▪ Can’t capture most efficient action as
impossible to work this out due to the above
1 2
19
Problem: inability to determine value in increasingly complex systems
Identity fragmentation
▪ Assets with multiple contractual
relationships can have multiple identities
3
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Our solution: a shared asset register for attributes & contractual relationships
Assets
1. Permissioning and access2. KYC (root of trust)3. Provenance (stream of trust)4. Data Integrity
▪ Solar PV▪ Battery▪ Electric Vehicle▪ etc…
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Our solution: a shared asset register for attributes & contractual relationships
Assets
▪ Capacity▪ Location▪ Response profile▪ Carbon intensity▪ etc…
Attributes
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Our solution: a shared asset register for attributes & contractual relationships
Attributes
Assets
Relationships
▪ Contracts▪ Permissions▪ Pre-qualifications▪ Secondary meters▪ etc…
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… provides the basis for new markets and services
Secondary Trading Network Capacity Balancing+ Services
First trade Sep-18 with EDF & UKPR
In development + market design, UK
Prototyping with 4x Swiss Utilities
e.g.
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Any questions?
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#cleantechSF
The Rising Stars
KEVIN NOERTKERCEO, Ampaire
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Commercial Electric Aircraft
Kevin Noertker Co-Founder & [email protected]
2019 Cleantech Forum:Rising Stars
Diversity of Thought
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The Third RevolutionIn Aviation Has Begun
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Massive Benefits:
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70% - 90% fuel cost savings
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25% - 50% maintenance cost savings
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Ultra quiet takeoffs and landings
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Zero Direct Emissions
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Meaningful Impact:
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New Flights
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Extended Hours of Operation
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More People Will Be Flying
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Connecting Communities
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Our Mission
Trusted
Practical
Compelling
Electric Aircraft
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Our Vision
Flight are more accessible
to more people from more airports
with electric aircraft that are
safe, clean, quiet and less costly.
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Our Flight Plan
Pragmatic
Step-by-step
Lean, Agile, Scalable
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The Bottom Line:
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#cleantechSF
The Rising Stars
GEORGE PALIKARASFounder & CEO, Metamaterial Technologies
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M a s t e r i n g
Metamaterial
Technologies
Inc.L i g h t
metamaterial .com
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Electronics THEN...
64
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Electronics NOW...
65
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Optics has not kept up……
66
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MetamatericTechnologies
Inc.M a s t e r i n g L i g h t
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Light
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‘Meta’-materials –from the Greek word to go beyond.
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Our vision is to democratize nanotechnology
and advanced materials
Metamaterial Technologies mission is to enable every light-using device to
manipulate light on demand, at scale and low cost.
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We specialize in Large-Area , High-Performance materials at few $/m2 that canblock, absorb and enhance lightand can be added to virtually any device.
Design & Prototyping
+
Proprietary Tools
=
Scalable & Sustainable Solutions
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1 2Roll-to-Roll
Lithography
Roll-to-Roll
Holography
Disruptive TechnologyFrom 1 million Joules to milli-Joules per cm2
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Scanning Holography
1
1200mm Roll-to-Roll1 meters / mincapable 5nm accuracy
Holographic PatterningPhotopolymer Material Matrix Re-arranged Molecular Structure
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Rolling Mask Lithography
UV Light
Photoresist
Nano-pattern
2
Rolling mask
150nm
300mm Roll-to-Roll
30 meter / mincapable
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Toyota Prius
met
aSO
LAR
Airbus A320
The Future of Transport
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1.Solar has low Efficiency to Weight
Ratio (Watt/kg)
2.Efficiency drops even further without
solar tracking
3.High-tech efficient solar panels too
expensive ($200+/Watt)
Ele
ctri
cV
eh
icle
s
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1.Moth-eye structures as
anti-reflection coatings on glass
2.New transparent metal electrodes to
replace ITO
3.Mie scatterers for light trapping in
active layer
Thin & lightweight –ideal solution for mobility industryImproves angular absorption – eliminates need for solar tracking systems
met
aSO
LAR
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We aim to produce the worlds thinnest Si cells by incorporating metamaterial light trapping coatings to improve light management
Impact YearMetasolar
Units in active use(m2)
CO2 Reduction
(kilotons / yr)
Hybrid/EV Cars
2025 14 million 2,265
2035 110 million 17,000
Aviation2025 0.8 million 932035 1.9 million 220
Residential2025 2 million 1252035 8 million 480
20 Mton/yr Reduction Potential
INSTRUCTIONS FOR PREPARATION OF PROPOSALS FOR SDTC FUNDING PHASE II - DETAILED PROPOSAL
2017A - Phase II Page 12
Figure 2.1 f) The dimensions of the different layers for the current HIT cell design by ENEL..
The project partners believe our path is viable based on the fact that we have:
1) Mass production capability of ENEL
2) World leading surface passivation strategy for HIT cells by ENEL
3) High performance metamaterial light trapping coating design by Stanford and MTI
4) Effectively transparent electrodes from Caltech
5) Larger area, cost effective nanopatterning by MTI
All of the above have been demonstrated in the lab or at large scale
Under this proposal, we have been able to bring together global experts via our commercialization/consortium partnership with Lockheed Martin and strategic partnerships with ENEL, Dalhousie, Stanford, and Caltech Universities on how to best incorporate the various layers to develop new metaSOLAR HIT cells all the way to platform integration. Processing for different layers may be combined and result in further cost savings.
Figure 3.1 f) Estimated efficiency of thin crystalline silicon solar cells with prediction of impact of metaSOLAR metamaterial advanced coatings.
(f)
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Partners
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MTI Founded in 2011 Headcount - 46
Pleasanton CA
R&D
and USA Sales
Dartmouth, Nova Scotia
MTI Corporate HQ
Scaled manufacturing
London, U.K
R&D and
EU Sales Office
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Opportunity
$ 1.8 T
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Thank you
metamaterial.com
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#cleantechSF
The Rising Stars
JON SOBELCEO, Sight Machine
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Sight MachineUnlocking Sustainability in Manufacturing
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Manufacturing: The forgotten sector
A pivotal moment
Productivity change in
the manufacturing sector
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
1.6
3.9
4.3
0.70
1
2
3
4
5
’87-’90 ’90-’00 ’00-’07 ’07-’17
Avera
ge a
nnual change (
%)
22%
29%
16% of GHGs
when indirect
energy is taken
into account
of Global GDP
$1.33 Multiplier
75%of private
sector R&D
In clean energy,
“industry has been
almost entirely ignored”
Rhodium Group
Escalating emissionsStalled productivityAccelerating growth
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Manufacturing Government Communications
& Media
Banking Retail Professional
Services
Healthcare Securities &
Investment
Services
Pe
tab
yte
s
Source: Morgan Stanley, IDC, McKinsey Global Institute, World Bank, The Economist
The most promising path lies in data. Manufacturing, a
$15 trillion industry, generates the most data of any sector
If data is oil for the 21st century economy, where would you invest?
“The world’s most valuable
resource is
no longer oil, but data”
The Economist
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But data remains difficult to use
Operators capture machine
data manually
Supervisors and production
managers lack actionable
information
▪ Not real-time
▪ Not automated
▪ Not comprehensive
▪ No consistency
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The challenge is variety
Incumbent data technology handles data volume and velocity well.
Variety remains daunting. Manufacturing is the most extreme environment for variety
The idealsolution is
open, agnosticand scalable
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Making data useful with the industry’s
only AI Data Pipeline and Plant Digital Twin
Defect
Batch
Line
Cycle
Machines
Automated and streaming in real-time
Windowsshares/Excel
PLCs
MES/SAP
Historians/OPC
Serialization
Image/quality
Operator entry
Structured
Unstructured
Input Collect
Transform and normalize
Data is restructured
Configure Digital Twinof plants, lines, assets,
products, and processes
AI Data Pipeline
Acquire Contextualize & Model Analyze & Visualize
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Example: Digitizing manufacturing to
improve profitability and reduce carbon footprint
30 min.
reductionin cycle time achieved
in
first 2 months
9%
improvementin cycle time achieved
in
first 2 months
40%
increasein profitability
10-15%
decreasein electricity
and water
use per unit
Asian chemicals company (zero waste plant)
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Example: Digitizing manufacturing to
improve efficiency and reduce carbon footprint
80% cost is
energy
Complex
process due to highly varied
products, inputs, and
conditions
Scalecompany seeking to
apply same approach
to 25+ plants
2%-5%
energy
reductionthrough the use of data
analytics
Global materials company
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Paper & Packaging
Pharmaceuticals
Industrial
HeathcareFood & Beverage
Automotive
Electronics
The next 10 years: Global scale, every industry
Footwear
Glass
Aerospace
Chemicals & Paint
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Thank you