The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh...

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#cleantechSF Thank you The Rising Stars

Transcript of The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh...

Page 1: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

#cleantechSF

Thank youThe Rising Stars

Page 2: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

#cleantechSF

The Rising Stars

MODERATED BY

KATIE MCCLAINDirector, Market Development, Energize Ventures

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The Rising Stars

MATT HARPERPresident & Chief Product Officer, Avalon Battery

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Cleantech Forum 2019

Rising Stars Session

Matt Harper

President and Chief Product Officer

[email protected] • December 2018

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Avalon Overview

5

Avalon designs, builds and

delivers the world’s most

dependable flow batteries.

→ MW-scale projects with leading

customers in the US and China

→ Externally validated lowest

total cost of ownership

→ Targeting the rapidly maturing

long-duration, heavy duty cycle

storage market.

→ Largest fleet of identical flow

batteries ever installed (140+

units in operation)

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Avalon’s product: standardization as the path to low cost and reliability

6

Most flow batteries: Built in place, high

construction costs, poor reliability

Avalon flow battery: 13 years’ work

yields world’s first turn-key, factory

manufactured vanadium flow battery:

Avalon’s highly standardized approach yields:

✓ Proven reliable performance for decades of deep cycles

✓ Economies of scale and quality assurance for entire product

✓ Low-cost, reliable turn-key installation at site

✓ Lowest full-lifecycle total cost of ownership

12.7

9.97.9

2.9

Avalon(today)

Li-ion(today)

Space Avalon(2025)

Li-ion(2025)

Avalon Li-ion Avalon Li-ion

2018 2025

+238%+61%

Result: Durable technology and

manufacturing scale yield ultra-low total

cost of ownership ($USD LCOS, below)

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Avalon established and growing across fastest growing geographies and

applications for storage

7

Current Avalon’s installations

Vancouver, BC

• 2015–2018

• 125 kWh

Qinghai, China

• 2018

• 2 MWh

Daejeon, Korea

• 2017

• 27 kWh

Iowa

• 2018

• 1 MWh

California

• 2016–2018

• 390 kWhWestern Australia

• 2018

• 50 kWh

Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using

solar storage to power facility, avoiding

interconnection and energy costs

Avalon Solution: 90kWh, 30kW AFB2

Operational November 2018

IRR (unlevered): 140%

Industrial customer in Pomona, CA using

storage to mitigate demand charges and

shift energy alongside existing PV array

Avalon Solution: 90kWh, 30kW AFB2

Operational October 2017

IRR (unlevered) 22%

US renewable energy project will use

batteries to reduce clipping and optimize

plant, boosting energy delivered under PPA

Avalon Solution: 4MW, 16MWh AFB3

Proposal delivered; COD anticipated Q4

2019

IRR (unlevered) 11.3%

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0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

2019 2020 2021 2022

Avalon Sales Pipeline by Application

Front of meter solar + storage Wind + storage

Grid Storage Only Behind meter solar + storage

Microgrid

Evolution of pipeline over next four years

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Front of

meter solar +

storage

Front of

meter

storage-only

Behind the

meter solar +

storage

Wind + storage

Microgrid

Long Run Drivers

Microgrid

• Huge opportunity in developing

world (BRICS+ industrials)

• Large industrials (eg mines) likely

to dominate volume early

Behind the

meter solar +

storage

• Continued expansion of BTM sales

model

• Scale of individual projects small

Front of meter

storage-only

• Significant growth as capacity

markets expand and business

models standardize.

• Single project size very larger

Wind + storage• First projects in China underway;

ROW to follow.

Front of meter

solar + storage

• PPA structures in USA starting to

require storage as an option.

• Combination of PPA adder and

capacity payments = stable model

for growth.

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Looking to the future

9

• Niche and policy-driven projects will be fewer

• Standardized applications will emerge

• Standardized financial and contract structures will follow

Standard

Commercial

Models

• Longer duration applications gain traction

• Contract terms will extend beyond 10 years

• Duty cycles will drive technology specialization

Product

Differentiation

2

1

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Product differentiationLong- and short-duration storage applications will co-exist

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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

6-10 hours 12.4 23.9 46.4 69.4 91.7 123.8 195.6 256.9 459.9 527.8

4-6 hours 7.6 135.2 251.2 57.4 399.1 224.1 253.0 1020.4 1580.1 1774.7

2-4 hours 148.1 146.6 197.2 626.3 506.5 992.9 1506.7 1547.3 2127.3 2498.0

0-2 hours 123.9 125.3 169.1 216.2 279.0 317.4 326.0 329.4 334.8 340.1

0.0

1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

4000.0

5000.0

6000.0

(MW

)

Navigant - Country Forecasts for Utility-Scale Energy Storage, 2017

US Utility Scale Power Capacity Additions by Duration

AFB3 will better address the 4 - 10 hour

segments, which are forecast to be the

fastest growing over the medium term

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Lithium-ion

Ford EcoBoost M-6007-35T

• Power: 365 hp

• Cost: 9,600 USD

• Design life: 3,500 hr

• Specific cost: 26 USD/hp

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• Cost competitive for short-duration applications

• Short life in terms of cycles and years

• Established product with good bankability

►Best suited for power-focused applications

• Cost competitive for longer-duration applications

• Long life in terms of cycles and years

• Emerging product with improving bankability

►Best suited for the energy-focused applications

Caterpillar CATC 1.1

• Power: 20 hp

• Cost: 4,000 USD

• Design life: 100,000 hr

• Specific cost: 200 USD/hp

Analogy to internal combustion engines

►Best suited for power-focused applications ►Best suited for energy-focused applications

Product differentiationDifferent storage solutions will serve different needs

Avalon

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Standard commercial modelsLow total LCOE = Renewables plus storage as new baseload

1) Values for conventional energy sources based on „Lazard‘s levelized cost of energy analysis – Version 11.0“ (Nov 17), see backup slide;

2) Conservative assumption of August 2018 values in EU (17.5 EUR/tCO2 ~ 20 USD/tCO2); 3) Assumptions for 2025; 4) Combined cycle gas

turbine

Need for new generation capacities due to

• Policy-driven retirement of

conventional generators

• Retirement of old generators

• Demand for more

dispatchable generators due

to high VRE share

Retirement

Flexibility need

Demand growth• Emerging markets: Overall

market growth

• Mature markets: Electric

vehicle adoption, etc.

2

2.8

15.6

64.2

19.7

11.2

5.4

8.3

3.6

8.4

7.1

PV +Storage

GasPeaker

Coal CCGT Diesel Nuclear

4.8

21.9

15.8

8.5

29.3

18.3

LCOE

VRE

LCOS

Avalon

LCOE comparison1 (USDct/kWh)

3

CO2

price2

High-end

of range

4

Low-end

of range

Page 13: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

Report:

“Impacts of High Variable

Renewable Energy Futures

on Wholesale Electricity

Prices, and on Electric-Sector

Decision Making”

13

Standard commercial modelsTime shifting driven by market price signals

Economical addition of energy storage to VRE possible with increasing share of renewables1, e.g., at a total

share of 40% – expected to be reached between 2020 and 2030 depending on market2

1) See following slide for assessment; 2) CleanTechnica (2017) – 50% CAISO renewables target for 2030 expected to be reached by 2020

Profitable

operation based

on Avalon’s 2025

LCOS of 28

USD/MWh for

market-based

“time-shift only”

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

VRE only VRE+Storage

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Standard commercial models:Demand curve getting steeper, increasing opportunities for arbitrage

• New VRE and storage assets must be financed

based on expected electricity prices, i.e., the

applicable price must be higher than the LCOE

• Spreads between peak and valley price that are

larger than LCOS make it economically feasible to

add storage to VRE and time shift the electricity

• Price setting based on marginal cost of most

expensive plant (“merit order”)

• Increasing share of VRE leading to lower valley

prices (“merit order effect”)

• Independent from VRE, peak prices may

increase, further widening the spread

Energy

demand

Marginal costs

(USD/MWh)

Capacity(GW)

Marginal costs

(USD/MWh)

VRE Other

1) See study results by Berkely Labs on next slides, „High solar“ scenario“; 2) Valley and peak price set by marginal costs of most expensive

plant that is required („merit order“, see left); 3) Assumptions for 2025

“Valley price” without adding additional VRE

“Valley price” with adding additional VRE

USDct/kWh)

Peak price2

(substantial VRE)

Valley price2

(substantial VRE)

LCOE3

(VRE)

Time shift

Spread

Profit

Profit

Capacity(GW)

… LCOE3

(VRE)

LCOS3

(Avalon)

55

55

25

21% renewables

40% renewables

Example: California1 Example: California1

Page 15: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

Avalon Battery

Matt Harper

President and Chief Product Officer

[email protected]

+1-604-866-3833 • December 2018

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#cleantechSF

The Rising Stars

JO-JO HUBBARDCOO & Co-Founder, Electron

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Cleantech Forum: Rising Stars

January 29th 2019

Page 18: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

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Electron thesis

Design and build the digital

infrastructure that enables the

transition to cheaper, greener,

cleaner power

Mission Infrastructure thesis Blockchain thesis

Increasingly complex markets

and contractual relationships

will be indexed by a shared

asset register

The coordination mechanism to

align incentives and create

transparency between market

participants

Page 19: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

Data fragmentation

▪ Siloed, inconsistent and missing data – no

view of the whole system

Market fragmentation

▪ Can’t capture most efficient action as

impossible to work this out due to the above

1 2

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Problem: inability to determine value in increasingly complex systems

Identity fragmentation

▪ Assets with multiple contractual

relationships can have multiple identities

3

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Our solution: a shared asset register for attributes & contractual relationships

Assets

1. Permissioning and access2. KYC (root of trust)3. Provenance (stream of trust)4. Data Integrity

▪ Solar PV▪ Battery▪ Electric Vehicle▪ etc…

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Our solution: a shared asset register for attributes & contractual relationships

Assets

▪ Capacity▪ Location▪ Response profile▪ Carbon intensity▪ etc…

Attributes

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Our solution: a shared asset register for attributes & contractual relationships

Attributes

Assets

Relationships

▪ Contracts▪ Permissions▪ Pre-qualifications▪ Secondary meters▪ etc…

Page 23: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

… provides the basis for new markets and services

Secondary Trading Network Capacity Balancing+ Services

First trade Sep-18 with EDF & UKPR

In development + market design, UK

Prototyping with 4x Swiss Utilities

e.g.

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Any questions?

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The Rising Stars

KEVIN NOERTKERCEO, Ampaire

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Commercial Electric Aircraft

Kevin Noertker Co-Founder & [email protected]

2019 Cleantech Forum:Rising Stars

Diversity of Thought

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Page 30: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding
Page 31: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding
Page 32: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

The Third RevolutionIn Aviation Has Begun

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Massive Benefits:

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70% - 90% fuel cost savings

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25% - 50% maintenance cost savings

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Ultra quiet takeoffs and landings

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Zero Direct Emissions

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Meaningful Impact:

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New Flights

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Extended Hours of Operation

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More People Will Be Flying

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Connecting Communities

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Our Mission

Trusted

Practical

Compelling

Electric Aircraft

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Our Vision

Flight are more accessible

to more people from more airports

with electric aircraft that are

safe, clean, quiet and less costly.

Page 46: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

Our Flight Plan

Pragmatic

Step-by-step

Lean, Agile, Scalable

Page 47: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding
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Page 52: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding
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Page 54: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding
Page 55: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding
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Page 58: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding
Page 59: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding
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The Bottom Line:

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Leading The Charge

Kevin Noertker Co-Founder & [email protected]

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#cleantechSF

The Rising Stars

GEORGE PALIKARASFounder & CEO, Metamaterial Technologies

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M a s t e r i n g

Metamaterial

Technologies

Inc.L i g h t

metamaterial .com

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Electronics THEN...

64

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Electronics NOW...

65

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Optics has not kept up……

66

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MetamatericTechnologies

Inc.M a s t e r i n g L i g h t

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Light

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‘Meta’-materials –from the Greek word to go beyond.

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Our vision is to democratize nanotechnology

and advanced materials

Metamaterial Technologies mission is to enable every light-using device to

manipulate light on demand, at scale and low cost.

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We specialize in Large-Area , High-Performance materials at few $/m2 that canblock, absorb and enhance lightand can be added to virtually any device.

Design & Prototyping

+

Proprietary Tools

=

Scalable & Sustainable Solutions

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1 2Roll-to-Roll

Lithography

Roll-to-Roll

Holography

Disruptive TechnologyFrom 1 million Joules to milli-Joules per cm2

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Scanning Holography

1

1200mm Roll-to-Roll1 meters / mincapable 5nm accuracy

Holographic PatterningPhotopolymer Material Matrix Re-arranged Molecular Structure

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Rolling Mask Lithography

UV Light

Photoresist

Nano-pattern

2

Rolling mask

150nm

300mm Roll-to-Roll

30 meter / mincapable

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Toyota Prius

met

aSO

LAR

Airbus A320

The Future of Transport

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1.Solar has low Efficiency to Weight

Ratio (Watt/kg)

2.Efficiency drops even further without

solar tracking

3.High-tech efficient solar panels too

expensive ($200+/Watt)

Ele

ctri

cV

eh

icle

s

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1.Moth-eye structures as

anti-reflection coatings on glass

2.New transparent metal electrodes to

replace ITO

3.Mie scatterers for light trapping in

active layer

Thin & lightweight –ideal solution for mobility industryImproves angular absorption – eliminates need for solar tracking systems

met

aSO

LAR

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We aim to produce the worlds thinnest Si cells by incorporating metamaterial light trapping coatings to improve light management

Impact YearMetasolar

Units in active use(m2)

CO2 Reduction

(kilotons / yr)

Hybrid/EV Cars

2025 14 million 2,265

2035 110 million 17,000

Aviation2025 0.8 million 932035 1.9 million 220

Residential2025 2 million 1252035 8 million 480

20 Mton/yr Reduction Potential

INSTRUCTIONS FOR PREPARATION OF PROPOSALS FOR SDTC FUNDING PHASE II - DETAILED PROPOSAL

2017A - Phase II Page 12

Figure 2.1 f) The dimensions of the different layers for the current HIT cell design by ENEL..

The project partners believe our path is viable based on the fact that we have:

1) Mass production capability of ENEL

2) World leading surface passivation strategy for HIT cells by ENEL

3) High performance metamaterial light trapping coating design by Stanford and MTI

4) Effectively transparent electrodes from Caltech

5) Larger area, cost effective nanopatterning by MTI

All of the above have been demonstrated in the lab or at large scale

Under this proposal, we have been able to bring together global experts via our commercialization/consortium partnership with Lockheed Martin and strategic partnerships with ENEL, Dalhousie, Stanford, and Caltech Universities on how to best incorporate the various layers to develop new metaSOLAR HIT cells all the way to platform integration. Processing for different layers may be combined and result in further cost savings.

Figure 3.1 f) Estimated efficiency of thin crystalline silicon solar cells with prediction of impact of metaSOLAR metamaterial advanced coatings.

(f)

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Partners

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MTI Founded in 2011 Headcount - 46

Pleasanton CA

R&D

and USA Sales

Dartmouth, Nova Scotia

MTI Corporate HQ

Scaled manufacturing

London, U.K

R&D and

EU Sales Office

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Opportunity

$ 1.8 T

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Thank you

metamaterial.com

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#cleantechSF

The Rising Stars

JON SOBELCEO, Sight Machine

Page 84: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

Sight MachineUnlocking Sustainability in Manufacturing

Page 85: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

Manufacturing: The forgotten sector

A pivotal moment

Productivity change in

the manufacturing sector

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

1.6

3.9

4.3

0.70

1

2

3

4

5

’87-’90 ’90-’00 ’00-’07 ’07-’17

Avera

ge a

nnual change (

%)

22%

29%

16% of GHGs

when indirect

energy is taken

into account

of Global GDP

$1.33 Multiplier

75%of private

sector R&D

In clean energy,

“industry has been

almost entirely ignored”

Rhodium Group

Escalating emissionsStalled productivityAccelerating growth

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Manufacturing Government Communications

& Media

Banking Retail Professional

Services

Healthcare Securities &

Investment

Services

Pe

tab

yte

s

Source: Morgan Stanley, IDC, McKinsey Global Institute, World Bank, The Economist

The most promising path lies in data. Manufacturing, a

$15 trillion industry, generates the most data of any sector

If data is oil for the 21st century economy, where would you invest?

“The world’s most valuable

resource is

no longer oil, but data”

The Economist

Page 87: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

But data remains difficult to use

Operators capture machine

data manually

Supervisors and production

managers lack actionable

information

▪ Not real-time

▪ Not automated

▪ Not comprehensive

▪ No consistency

Page 88: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

The challenge is variety

Incumbent data technology handles data volume and velocity well.

Variety remains daunting. Manufacturing is the most extreme environment for variety

The idealsolution is

open, agnosticand scalable

Page 89: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

Making data useful with the industry’s

only AI Data Pipeline and Plant Digital Twin

Defect

Batch

Line

Cycle

Machines

Automated and streaming in real-time

Windowsshares/Excel

PLCs

MES/SAP

Historians/OPC

Serialization

Image/quality

Operator entry

Structured

Unstructured

Input Collect

Transform and normalize

Data is restructured

Configure Digital Twinof plants, lines, assets,

products, and processes

AI Data Pipeline

Acquire Contextualize & Model Analyze & Visualize

Page 90: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

Example: Digitizing manufacturing to

improve profitability and reduce carbon footprint

30 min.

reductionin cycle time achieved

in

first 2 months

9%

improvementin cycle time achieved

in

first 2 months

40%

increasein profitability

10-15%

decreasein electricity

and water

use per unit

Asian chemicals company (zero waste plant)

Page 91: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

Example: Digitizing manufacturing to

improve efficiency and reduce carbon footprint

80% cost is

energy

Complex

process due to highly varied

products, inputs, and

conditions

Scalecompany seeking to

apply same approach

to 25+ plants

2%-5%

energy

reductionthrough the use of data

analytics

Global materials company

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Paper & Packaging

Pharmaceuticals

Industrial

HeathcareFood & Beverage

Automotive

Electronics

The next 10 years: Global scale, every industry

Footwear

Glass

Aerospace

Chemicals & Paint

Page 93: The Rising Stars Thank you...• 2016–2018 • 390 kWh Western Australia • 2018 • 50 kWh Industrial facility in Santa Cruz, CA using solar storage to power facility, avoiding

Thank you