The retail world in 2012

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10 Editors-in-Chief from the international press share their vision

We asked MAPIC’s international media partners: what are the three most important issues for the retail real estate industry in 2012?

We thank all those who took part and hope that you will enjoy reading their answers as much as we did! Their articles give a perfect snapshot of major international trends for 2012 as well as the nuances of each local market.

the retail world in 2012The most important topics to look at in 2012

Retail real estate in 2012

Retail Property AnalystWish you were here? Postcards from the abyss

Property Investor EuropeMAPIC 2011 flouts Cannes echos of dramatic euro, economic events

Magaza Dergisi2012’ de Perakende Dünyasi

The retail world in 2012

Property EURun on retail continues

Sites CommerciauxLa ville est très importante ; la périphérie l’est aussi

City centres are extremely important; the suburbs are too

EurobuildThe retail market in Poland has not overheated

Centros ComercialesNuevo modelo de retail en un momento de cambio

New retail model in a time of change

Immobilien ZeitungDer Laden um die Ecke kann die Keimzelle eines Weltkonzerns sein

Today’s corner shop could be tomorrow’s global retail giant

Commercial Real EstateNew Cities, New Formats, New Brands

Exclusive to MAPIC

* Please note that we have chosen to publish some articles in their original language. English translations are available at blog.mipimworld.com

Estate GazetteEconomy is the threat but digital remains the challenge*

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37 38 39 40

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Marta Reñones es

licenciada en Periodismo

por la Universidad

Complutense de Madrid.

Comenzó su carrera

profesional hace ya más

de una década como

documentalista en

varias empresas y

redactora del diario El

Mundo. Actualmente es

la redactora jefa de la

revista CENTROS

COMERCIALES.

Nuevo modelo de retail en un momento de cambioEl escenario económico que ha dejado tras de sí la crisis mundial está afectando a la industria del retail desde el primer momento

the retail world in 2012

En 2012, cuando ya todos queremos ver un poco de luz al final de túnel, será necesario que el sector se adapte a la nueva situación – menos financiación para acometer proyectos nuevos, menor poder adquisitivo de las familias debido al aumento del desempleo, nuevas formas de consumir, etc. –.Uno de los puntos a tener en cuenta es el modelo de gestión comercial. Los responsables de los centros comerciales deben variar su forma de gestionar las partidas presupuestarias. Es necesario que ahorren costes (por ejemplo mediante la implantación de sistemas de eficiencia energética o renegociando los contratos con los proveedores de servicios) y que dediquen un mayor esfuerzo al marketing. Deben adaptarse a las nuevas técnicas de comunicación (redes sociales, encuentros profesionales, canales de televisión…). Y por supuesto, deben prestar atención al crecimiento de las ventas online, ver este nuevo canal como positivo e intentar reorientar su negocio para convertir internet en un aliado.Otro tema de interés es el nuevo escenario en cuanto a la inversión en el mercado inmobiliario del retail. El principal problema en toda Europa es la falta de

financiación, que se ha ido agudizando con el paso del tiempo desde que se inició la crisis. Ahora, cobran importancia las transacciones, quitándole el puesto a los nuevos proyectos, que no terminan de volver a despegar; asimismo las reformas y ampliaciones puesto que en la mayoría de los casos, los suelos están amortizados. En España, todos los inversores que se interesan por la adquisición de centros son extranjeros, suelen ser empresas cotizadas que no requieren financiación externa, sino que cuentan con fondos propios. Debido a que las rentabilidades están bajando en países económicamente más fuertes, España podría ser, en 2012, una oportunidad para estos fondos que buscan rentabilidades un poco más altas –actualmente se encuentran en torno al 6,5% –.El nuevo consumidor o la nueva forma de consumir es otra de las preocupaciones de los profesionales del retail. El cliente es cada vez más exigente y con la crisis ha cambiado sus hábitos de consumo. Es necesario que los comerciantes y los gestores adapten su modelo a las necesidades del consumidor. Deben proporcionarle una experiencia de compra especial si quieren fidelizarlo.

www.revistacentroscomerciales.com

The most important topics to look at in 2012, by

English version here

http://blog.mipimworld.com/2011/11/new-retail-model-in-a-time-of-change/

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Rafael KhaybrakhmanovEditor in Chief

New Cities, New Formats, New BrandsRussia is too large a market to be homogeneous. While large cities are saturated with retail space and anticipate the entry of new European retail formats, small regional cities need at least one completed quality project

The Russian retail real estate market keeps growing mainly due to regional expansion. The most important trend mentioned by nearly all developers today is keener interest in the cities with half a million plus population. Until recently experts considered only a limited circle of million-plus cities. Apart from Moscow and Saint Petersburg, this list included Yekaterinburg, Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod... Now developers are ready to enter even small cities located far from the capital city. The city of Surgut (about 309,000 residents) in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area is one of the most vivid examples. Two shopping and entertainment centers are about to open their doors here almost at one time – 154,000 sq m and 100,000 sq m, respectively. Thanks to these two projects, such retail chains as O’Key, M.video, Cinemapark, Sportmaster, Detskiy Mir and MediaMarkt will make their debut on the local market. This is rather an exception from the general rule, to be sure, since consultants, talking about the most promising regional cities, mention Novosibirsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Chelyabinsk and Rostov-on-Don, in the first place – that is the cities with more than one million population. Meanwhile the deliberate and announced trend towards development of a huge market of the cities with half a million population is already an important step forward for Russia where the basic development pattern follows the path from the national capital to regional centers and only then to smaller cities and towns.

The second trend that will come to the fore on the market in the coming year is the emergence of new retail formats, outlet centers in particular. For now Russia does not have a single facility in this format. The inauguration of the first outlet centers – Fashion House Moscow and Outlet Village Belaya Dacha – has been announced in Moscow for late 2011 – early 2012. Meanwhile new formats, the

analysts believe, will be interesting not only for Moscow and Saint Petersburg, but for other developed markets too. For example, Yekaterinburg with its 26 shopping centers having the aggregated built space of 1,013,000 sq m is in need of extensive, rather than intensive development. Saturation with retail space is a formidable sign for developers. As reported by London Consulting & Management Company, the average recoupment time for retail properties in the Urals capital is in the range of 5-9 years and depends on their specific characteristics – above all, on their location and concept. Yekaterinburg-based players point out that in some cases the payoff time may reach 12 years and more because of oversaturation with retail space. On the other hand, the city with the population of 1.3 million cannot but arrest the attention of developers. New retail formats will open new prospects before the developers.

And lastly, new brands: shopping centers feel an acute need for unique and unmatched brands that have never been represented on the Russian market. At the present time each SC features a more or less standard pool of tenants. But already this year has seen the entry of new players. Thus early in September, the first store of the American brand “Banana Republic”, trading in clothes and accessories, opened its doors in Moscow. Victoria’s Secret comfortably lodged at the Mega Teply Stan mall. However many retail chains do not have the guts to launch regional expansion.

Another tendency at the juncture of the two above-mentioned trends will definitely gather momentum in 2012: we mean that retail operators are keen on the development of new formats. In particular Auchan announced its readiness to open the first storage-type store in Moscow that operates by the principle of preordering

via the Internet, which is similar to the Auchan Drive project in France. The inauguration of Auchanauto is scheduled for next year. IKEA contemplates the opening of stand-alone stores (for now IKEA has accommodated its stores only in MEGA malls in Russia) and has started negotiations with landlords. The German Metro Group has decided to apply its Polish experience to Russia and to open a chain of “corner” shops with rentable space varying between 40 and 100 sq m under a new brand unrelated to Metro, using the franchising system, and so on.It’s difficult to forecast the activity of the retail segment in Russia in the year 2012. To date it is the retail segment of commercial real estate market that has been the most attractive in the regions for investors, as it accounted for more than 90% of all transactions completed in H1 of 2011. Besides Saint Petersburg, Kaluga, Irkutsk, Izhevsk, Kaliningrad and Volgograd have also been popular with investors.

www.impressmedia.ruwww.cre.ru


CRE magazine, published in Russian

and English twice a

month, is the leading

publication on

commercial real estate

in Russia. The

magazine covers all

segments of the

market. Circulation:

20,000 copies.

Commercial Real

Estate magazine is a

part of the Impress

Media, Marketing

Publishing House.


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Estates Gazette is the

UK’s leading

commercial property

title, covering the retail,

office, industrial and

residential sectors in

print and online.

To view all we offer go to

www.estatesgazette.com

Damian Wild Editor

Economy is the threat but digital remains the challengeThe challenges to the retail sector will come thick and fast in 2012. Consumers may be embracing the web, but are they ready to fall back in love with the high street?


It may be a decade since the maxim kept the Clinton campaign bus on the road, but today “it’s the economy, stupid” is a principle that developers, investors, landlords and retailers themselves neglect at their peril.Depending on your point of view the outlook for the year ahead varies from troublesome to unimaginably dreadful. Twelve months ago few would have countenanced the collapse of the euro or a slowdown in emerging economies of a sharpness to match the contraction in the west. But today neither feels impossible.Surveys indicate the UK economy is likely to contract in Q4. Meanwhile the withdrawal this month of bellweather retailer John Lewis from the £700m Tithebarn shopping scheme in Preston,

UK, was almost certainly unprecedented. Meanwhile it’s been an awful year for high streets in the UK. Vacancy rates in some town centres are approaching 30% while almost two-thirds of towns have seen shop vacancy levels increase by more than 10% over the past three years.As well as the tough trading conditions, this summer’s riots affected city centre premises in London and beyond. A government review, led by retail guru Mary Portas, is pending. Consumers say they want the high street to survive. But with the British Council of Shopping Centres predicting that more than one in 10 UK stores could remain vacant in the long term, will they vote with their wallets?Look wider and the European Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates by

25bp to 1.25% suggests acknowledgement that the Eurozone’s debt crisis is impacting the wider economy. Does the bank have the courage to take bolder steps to prevent the crisis deepening? Many have their doubts.And then there’s the impact of digital, the single biggest medium-term influence. Groupon and its ilk continue to march while Amazon has launched its customer collection lockers in the UK. Sited at Land Securities’ One New Change in the City of London, it’s a further bridging of the divide between the virtual and the physical.Their presence in Europe is only weeks old but already some asset managers complain that they are running shopping centres not post offices. In this climate though they will take rental income where they can find it.

www.estatesgazette.com


It’s the economy, stupid Time to embrace digital High street renaissance?

Topics

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Eurobuild CEE is a

B2B magazine

published in two

languages (Polish and

English) and is one of

the most important

monthlies devoted to

the topics of real

estate, investment and

architecture in Central

and Eastern Europe.

Radosław Górecki Deputy Editor

The retail market in Poland has not overheatedNext year looks to be an extremely promising one for the shopping centre market: more spectacular projects are to be launched while the retail market in smaller towns will thrive

The Galeria Wilanów shopping centre in Warsaw is a joint project

of Polnord and GTC


The retail sector in Poland has a bright future ahead of it. Experts are stressing that this sector of the property market is still unsaturated, both in terms of the number of projects and the presence of international retail chains. According Colliers International’s data, there are 360 modern shopping centres currently operating in Poland with a combined area of more than 8.38 mln sqm. Another 215,000 sq m is to be opened within the next six months. And this is not all. The biggest market players are preparing more projects. These include Globe Trade Centre, which has announced the development of Galeria Wilanów, a huge project (76,000 sq m) to be built in Wilanów, one of the most thriving districts of Warsaw. GTC will also be starting the

construction of a shopping centre in Warsaw’s Białołeka district (60,000 sq m). However, there are many more new projects to come. Shopping centres are soon to be opened in Kraków, Torun, Kalisz and Gorzów Wielkopolski. Neinver’s spectacular new project in Katowice is also currently under construction. In spite of the fact that banks still regard the financing of new projects with a large degree of caution (you have to have at least 30 pct of your own contribution and preliminary contracts signed for at least 50–60 pct of the leasable area in order to qualify for finance), there is lots of cash flowing in from investment funds. At the moment three or four funds are interested in buying every shopping centre that comes onto the market.

However, the retail sector does not just consist of huge projects alone. More and more investors are showing an interest in smaller towns. You could even go as far as to say that 2012 will be the year of ‘convenience stores’, which have areas not exceeding 5,000 sq m. One such example is the newly-born ‘Czerwona Torebka’ [Red Bag] concept – the founders of the Eurocash, Biedronka and Zabka chains have announced that they will build as many as 1,950 Czerwona Torebka centres across Poland over the next ten years. To sum up, 2012 looks to be an outstanding year for the retail sector. Substantial demand from investment funds and the launches of new, major projects are raising hopes that Poland will stand out proudly on the European real estate market map.

www.eurobuildcee.com


The retail market in Poland is unsaturated There are now 360 shopping centres in Poland Investors have turned their attention to smaller towns

Topics

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Die Immobilien Zeitung mit ihrem

Online-Auftritt www.

iz.de zählt zu den

führenden deutschen

Fachzeitschriften für

die Immobilienwirts-

chaft. Sie gehört zur

Verlagsgruppe

Deutscher Fachverlag,

Frankfurt.

Christoph V. SchwanenflugRedakteur

Immobilien Zeitung

Der Laden um die Ecke kann die Keimzelle eines Weltkonzerns seinAlle paar Wochen eröffnet eine internationale Filialkette ihren ersten Laden in Deutschland. Werden Primark, Vapiano oder TK Maxx den deutschen Konsum verändern wie es Ikea, H&M und McDonald’s getan haben?


Ikea, H&M und McDonald’s haben den Konsum in Deutschland revolutioniert. Ikea hat die deutsche Eiche endgültig aus den deutschen Wohnzimmern vertrieben. H&M liefert den jungen Menschen im Land ihre Alltagsmode, und McDonald’s ist das einzige Lokal, in dem der Milliardär Seit’ an Seit’ mit dem Hartz-IV-Empfänger isst. Ikea, H&M und McDonald’s sind so sehr Teil der deutschen Alltagskultur geworden, dass man ganz vergessen hat, dass sie ursprünglich gar nicht aus Deutschland kommen. Sie sind erfolgreich, weil sie einen Markt kreiert haben, den es vorher nicht gab. Irgendwann haben aber auch sie ihren ersten Laden bzw. ihr erstes Lokal hierzulande eröffnet.

Welcher Einzelhändler, der in letzter Zeit nach Deutschland gekommen ist, könnte eine ähnlich große Rolle wie Ikea, H&M

und McDonald’s spielen? Diese Frage stellen sich auch Vermieter, vor allem solche, die nicht einen, sondern 50, 100 oder gar 500 Läden zu vermieten haben. Primark wird immer wieder genannt, weil die irische Firma Textilien verkauft wie Aldi Lebensmittel. TK Maxx erweitert sein Filialnetz beharrlich. Woolworth, nebenbei bemerkt, ist auch auf dem besten Weg, wieder das Kaufhaus von nebenan zu werden, das es jahrzehntelang war.

Hennes & Mauritz, wie es in seiner Frühzeit in Deutschland noch genannt wurde, hat am Anfang ziemlich ausgeflippte Sachen verkauft. Hätte 1980 (erster Laden in Hamburg) jemand gedacht, dass die Schweden einmal in der Fußgängerzone von Pirmasens vertreten sein würden? Ikea wurde abgetan, weil es ja angeblich nur andere

Möbeldesigner kopierte. McDonald’s hat sich durchgesetzt, obwohl viele Eltern ihren Kindern verboten haben, dort essen zu gehen.

Auch Vapiano, der expansivste deutsche System-Gastronom, hat einmal klein angefangen. Als das Bonner Unternehmen vor acht, neun Jahren seine ersten Lokale eröffnete, mussten die Vermieter lange überredet werden. Pizza und Pasta schien es in Deutschland doch schon genug zu geben. Inzwischen ist Vapiano auf vier Kontinenten vertreten. Vor einiger Zeit hat sich die Milliardärsfamilie Herz (Tchibo) beteiligt. Was lernen wir daraus? Niemand kann vorher genau wissen, welches Potenzial in einem Konzept steckt. Der kleine Laden um die Ecke kann die Keimzelle eines Weltkonzerns sein.

www.iz.de


Wer wird der nächste H&M? Wer wird der nächste Ikea? Wer wird der nächste McDonald’s?

Topics


http://blog.mipimworld.com/2011/11/today%E2%80%99s-corner-shop-could-be-tomorrow%E2%80%99s-global-retail-giant/

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mapicthe retail world in 2012

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www.pebev.comwww.magazadergisi.com


2012’de Perakende Dünyası

Okan Aras


http://blog.mipimworld.com/2011/11/the-retail-world-in-2012/

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PIE Mission StatementThe mission of Property

Investor Europe is to

bring transparency to

mainland Europe real

estate for US & global

investment

professionals. PIE is

uniquely published in

English from Frankfurt,

with editors around

Europe. PIE reaches

over 70,000 institutional

professionals via PIE

Dailies, and in print

monthly to 4,000-5,000

targeted subscribers and

others.

Allan Saunderson

MAPIC 2011 promises opportunities beyond the Euro crisisMAPIC 2011 takes place in Cannes in the very same Palais des Congrès that just a few weeks ago resounded with some of the most dramatic political events seen in Europe in recent years: the G20 Summit deliberating on a Greek drama.


The venue thus sets the tenor for European retail for, despite its general good health, the sector is far from immune to external economic events. Still, as the themes at MAPIC 2011 show, the industry is on a structural path of modernisation, refurbishment and re-thinking not entirely determined by cycles, and is a hive of activity. Panelists at PIE’s recent Russia Property Breakfast, for instance, pointed to the huge potential of that nation’s emerging retail. The low 13% income tax rate and buoyant economic base have generated a rich and growing middle class, around 10m-strong, with rapidly rising disposable income and consumption needs.

MAPIC 2011 Country Of Honour is Italy, where a flurry of retail activity is bringing new greenfield and downtown retail development and a fertile base for investment. Australia’s Westfield is planning a €1bn regional mall in Milan and has agreed to acquire a 50% interest in a 60 ha site near Milan’s Linate airport in a joint venture with Gruppo Stilo. Swedish furniture giant IKEA is earmarking €1bn for new superstores; and that is not even to mention Hines Italia’s Porta Nuova project in Milan, nearing completion, or the Santa Giulia project coveted by a consortium that includes Chinese interests.

One theme at MAPIC 2011 is multi-channelling - retailing strategies that combine internet marketing with physical store sales, whether malls or high streets. Another topic will be re-generation: how to revitalise existing premises, particularly malls, bringing them into line with modern requirements and establishing customer enticements that turn the shopping

experience into a social and entertainment event for the family. Footfall, as always, remains the holy grail.

One keen observer of the European retail landscape is Stephan Wundrak, director of European property research at Henderson Global Investors. The group’s Warburg Henderson joint venture in summer paid €61m for the Tuna Park mall in the Swedish city of Eskilstuna for its Henderson European Core Property Fund No. 1. Wundrak says that even if investors should be more careful amid the euro-related financial market swings, he is starting to advise clients to take a little more risk in retail and move out of core assets, which have become very expensive.

“Everyone likes the Nordics and Germany but there is a premium to be paid for these markets,” Wundrak told PIE last month. Henderson has always been a retail specialist. After Germany, it is mainly active in the UK but its fund allocation there is full. “There is a strong interest in Sweden but we have only managed to close Tuna Park near Stockholm due to quite strong competition,” he says. “We would like to spend a lot of money in France but we can’t find the product at the right price. Retail is hard to come by and office is extremely expensive.” In Germany, Henderson is buying retail warehouses where net yields are around 6.5% and leverage can be put on at 50%. The huge advantage for Henderson clients in the nation, mainly insurance companes and pension funds, is the massive yield pickup over German Bund sovereign bonds, currently returning under 2% - too low to service their long-term liabilities.

www.pie-mag.com


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mapic

Judi Seebus is Editor

in chief of PropertyEU,

the pan-European

portal for real estate

professionals.

Stay in touch with the

dealmakers in Europe

via our daily digital

newsletter and

monthly magazine.

Run on retail continues


European retail property has remained resilient since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, but the eurozone crisis will continue to cast its shadow over the sector in 2012 and beyond. As fears of a break-up and a double-dip recession widen, retail landlords are growing ever more concerned about what this will mean for their assets. With anaemic GDP growth a best-case scenario in view of the severe austerity measures being implemented across Europe, consumer spending will inevitably slow and retail sales will be hit. Against this bleak economic backdrop, winds of change are also sweeping through the sector. In the latest instalment of its Retail 2020 study entitled ‘The New Retail Rulebook: 5 Key Lessons from the Future’, Jones Lang LaSalle predicts that by 2020, more than 50% of all non-food retail transactions will be digitally influenced in mature markets.

While the big listed investors and institutional players continue to target core properties in prime locations, dominance in big catchment areas alone is not enough to win over consumers. Consumer spending patterns are becoming less predictable and consumer profiles more complex in our highly competitive global market. A recent report by CBRE revealed that men are replacing women as shoppers of the future. ‘Across Europe, two in five people (40%) now shop online – and it’s men not women that are driving the charge,’ the adviser said. As ecommerce continues to penetrate all levels of society and all generations, the number of e-drives and click-and-collect depots will expand further.

Over the past decade, shopping centres have delivered average total returns of just under 10% a year and retail performance has also been less volatile than other sectors. But in the current environment, a major driver behind the wall of equity targeting the European retail sector is no longer capital growth but capital preservation. Against a background of nervous equity markets and low-yielding bonds, there has been a run on prime retail property and the competition continues to grow. Established players such as Henderson and ING REIM*, the big specialist REITs such as Unibail-Rodamco and Corio and the German open-ended funds have been around for some time. But

institutional heavyweights including sovereign wealth funds are also entering the arena and global players from outside Europe are getting into the act as well. At end-October, US pension fund TIAA-CREF acquired the Perlacher Einkaufsparadies (PEP) shopping centre in Munich for a record low yield of sub 5%. In France, the National Pension Service of South Korea recently bought a further 24% interest in O’Parinor shopping centre near Paris from UK REIT Hammerson, taking its interest in the centre to 75%. As the spending spree on prime retail continues, a shortage of product looms and the gap with secondary assets is set to widen further.

Germany has been a point of gravity for retail investors of all types and the country outpaced the UK for the first time in the third quarter of this year. Given the size and depth of the market, it will likely remain a key target in the coming year as well. Another development that is likely to gain momentum is the growth of new alliances between equity players and specialist operators. Indeed, a shift is visible among some of the bigger global institutional players in their bid to gain more control over investment decisions.

While pension funds have long been in the market through blind pool funds and specialist investment vehicles, increasingly they are deploying capital directly or co-investing through joint ventures with specialist operating partners. The Canadians have been particularly active on this front, with Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) leading the way with its alliance with Dutch pension fund APG and Westfield at Stratford City mall in East London. In May, CPPIB made its first step in mainland Europe with the purchase of a 50% stake in the massive Centro Oberhausen shopping centre in Germany and more recently HOOPP, the manager of healthcare workers’ retirement plans in Ontario, acquired two malls in the Czech Republic in partnership with Meyer Bergman. In the coming year, rich Gulf states and wealth funds from Asia and Australia are likely to start knocking on European doors as well.

* Now part of CBRE Investors

www.propertyeu.info


Winds of change sweep through the sector Capital preservation heads the wish list Specialists & investors band together

Topics

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For exclusive and in-depth analysis of

the retail and real

estate markets in

Europe, Retail Property

Analyst provides

concise and insightful

information on the

crucial trends across

the continent. Our goal

is to explain, not just

report, the big news.

Mark FaithfullEditor

Wish you were here? Postcards from the abyssMAPIC approaches with crippling macro-economic uncertainty across Europe threatening to come to a head. But Mark Faithfull asks whether the doomsayers might just be missing the point

Recession, what recession? Westfield and Forever 21 signal

direction for 2012


Investment caution, bank reluctance to right-price distressed property and nervous European retailers, set against a background of the eurozone crisis. Ouch! But, you know, 2012 might not be so bad after all.Of course that depends on who and where you are. If you own or run a small store on a provincial high street in Western Europe, especially the UK or Ireland, you may want to turn away now. If you own or lease within a big shiny shopping centre in a prime location in one of Europe’s principal cities, then things really aren’t so bad. But the issue that will surely dominate 2012, other than ongoing polarisation, is who faces up to where we are: the abyss.Postcard one: Just as Europe’s politicians have failed to grapple with the eurozone

crisis, so the banks and institutional investors - holding a whole lot of retail stock they don’t want - have refused to put on a fire sale. The result, frustratingly for the equity houses bursting with institutional money to allocate, has been that the predicted slump in capital values has not materialised. It probably won’t in 2012 either, although a gradual release of stock would give the market some hugely needed liquidity.Postcard 2: That means the smart money will be spent on quick fixes in 2012, improving existing centres to polish up capital values and – a mantra for the next 12 months – income generation. But this will be a year for cost-effective optimisation, not grand redesigns.Postcard 3: However, the issue that should

really be concerning investors is consumer behaviour and just how damned annoying it is. Those who remained cautious during the boom years (like the French and Germans) will not spend their way out of recession and previous big spenders (the UK, Ireland, the southern Mediterranean) are feeling the pinch. Retailers who cannot combine value, accessibility and cache will suffer long and hard in 2012 and so will those centres which rely upon them. And what consumers do spend is increasingly not in-store.Out here at the abyss there are certainly plenty of doomsday scenarios to pick from. But for those prepared to embrace the change and to build a new business model, 2012 might not be the holiday from hell after all.

www.retailpropertyanalyst.com


Lack of liquidity maintains logjam Quick-fix asset management to dominate Unpredictable consumers set the agenda

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Alain Boutigny est

directeur de “La

Correspondance de

L’Enseigne” (newsletter

hebdomadaire

s’adressant aux

enseignes, promoteurs

et investisseurs) et de

“Sites commerciaux”

(mensuel à l’attention

des commerçants,

opérateurs de centres

commerciaux et

conseils immobiliers)

La ville est très importante ; la périphérie l’est aussiLe discours sur la reconquête du centre-ville dont les politiques nous rebattent les oreilles ne doit pas cacher le besoin d’équipements de commerce dont la périphérie a évidemment besoin

Family Village


Les tartes à la crème ont ceci de formidable que l’on peut en manger dans tous les établissements où la réflexion fait défaut. Prenez par exemple le retour au centre-ville dont les politiques nous rebattent les oreilles. Le projet de loi Ollier (qui a du plomb dans l’aile) ne parle que de cela : des centralités urbaines, de cette mauvaise herbe qu’est la périphérie et de cet amour infini des populations pour le cœur de nos cités.Billevesées ! Les Français n’aiment pas leur centre-ville tant que ça. Ils l’affirment du reste sans ambages, faisant mentir les élites qui se permettent de parler pour eux. Dans un sondage paru cette année, cette “bof attitude” crève les yeux. “Diriez-vous que vous aimez “beaucoup”,

“assez”, “pas vraiment” ou “pas du tout” votre centre-ville ?” leur a demandé Tns. Eh bien, croyez-le ou non : 71 % répondent “pas vraiment” (13 %), “pas du tout” (4 %) ou “assez” (54 % – autrement dit “m...ouais”). Seuls 27 % affirment “beaucoup”.Ce n’est pas grand-chose, vous l’avouerez... De là, on tire néanmoins des plans sur la comète. On dit que les zones suburbaines sont sans lendemain, que les commerces qui s’y trouvent n’ont rien à y faire et que le prix de l’essence leur aura bientôt donné le coup de grâce. Inversement, les jolis cœurs de villes parleraient d’amour avec leurs ruelles inaccessibles, leurs parkings insuffisants et leur capacité d’accueil impossible à augmenter.

Et voilà que la foule des banlieues, privée de ses centres commerciaux et de ses retail parks, viendrait faire ses emplettes intra-muros, additionnerait la foule du travail à celle des promeneurs, un peu comme un dimanche en semaine. On aura beau construire des immeubles sur les immeubles, ajouter des mètres carrés de vente aux mètres carrés de vente et organiser les transports les plus efficaces possible, on ne poussera pas bien loin les murs de la ville : un concept historique et affectif, certes, mais parfaitement limité. Et que l’automobile, l’avion, l’autoroute et le Tgv ont enterré depuis longtemps. Elle restera précieuse, bien sûr : tout autant que les grottes de Lascaux.

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La ville est encensée La périphérie est décriée Le commerce aime les deux

Thèmes

mapic


http://blog.mipimworld.com/2011/11/city-centres-are-extremely-important-the-suburbs-are-too/

The retail world in 2012

Business

Transcript of The retail world in 2012