The results of sociopolitical monitoring "Zaporizhzhia: 4 months after election"
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Transcript of The results of sociopolitical monitoring "Zaporizhzhia: 4 months after election"
RESULTSSociopolitical monitoring
Zaporizhzhia, 2016
ROUND # 1, MARCH
3/17/2016 1
Marketing and Legal Solutions
www.mlsgroup.com.ua
The passport of Sociopolitical monitoring, 2016
Rounds, 2016 р. Terms
ROUND # 1 March, 2016
ROUND # 2 June, 2016
ROUND # 3 September, 2016
ROUND # 4 December, 2016
3/17/2016 2
Methodology
Method of Data Collection telephone survey of the residents of Zaporizhzhia
Parent population residents of Zaporizhzhia elder then 18 years, users of all
mobile operators in Ukrainea as well as fixed-line one
Sample 805 respondents
Quota
sex
age
living area
Field work, ROUND # 1 10 – 13.03.2016
Attainability rate 48%
3/17/2016 3
Zaporizhzhia: 4 months after
electionChanges in Zaporizhzhia: better or worth?
3/17/2016 4
Changes in Zaporizhzhia: better or worth?
Character of changes %Enlarged
category
Significantly improved 4,532,3
Somewhat improved 28
No change 4,75,7
Somewhat worse 1
Significantly worse 58,9 58,9
Трудно сказать 3 3
19% 18 – 29 12%
20% 30 – 39 12%
18% 40 – 49 17%
18% 50 – 59 19%
25% 60 + 40%
50% MALE 40%
50% FEMALE 60%
15%GENERAL
SECONDARY19%
37%SPECIALIZED
SECONDARY40%
48% HIGHER 41%
If we would talk about the changes that are taking place in the city
from November 2015. What can you say about these changes?
31
29
32
29
36
41
29
Aleksandrovskiy
Zavodskoy
Kommunarskiy
Dneprovskiy
Voznesenovskiy
Khortitskiy
Shevchenkovskiy
The level of notability of changes within each
district
3/17/2016 5
Zaporizhzhia: 4 months after election The activities of the mayor: support or protest?
How can you assess the work of V. Buryak as a mayor of our city?
3/17/2016 6
Оценка %Укрупненная
категория
Positively 17,147,2
Rather positively 30,1
Rather negative 10,114,9
Negative 4,8
Difficult to answer 37,9 37,9
The activities of the mayor: support or protest?
23% 18 – 29 14%
23% 30 – 39 13%
22% 40 – 49 16%
19% 50 – 59 17%
13% 60 + 41%
55% MALE 43%
45% FEMALE 57%
15%GENERAL
SECONDARY19%
33%SPECIALIZED
SECONDARY41%
52% HIGHER 41% 51
58
49
39
40
52
48
Aleksandrovskiy
Zavodskoy
Kommunarskiy
Dneprovskiy
Voznesenovskiy
Khortitskiy
Shevchenkovskiy
The level of positive assessments of the
mayor’s work within the districts
61
34
2
3
8
75
15
2
6
83
6
5
0 50 100
Changes to thebetter
No change
Chnges to the worth
Difficult to answer
Neutrally Negative Positivly
Assessment of the character of change in the
city, depending on the evaluation of the
mayor’s work
3/17/2016 7
Zaporizhzhia: 4 months after election The electoral balance: who is growing and who loses?
Electoral map of the ratings
3/17/2016 8
Official
results,
‘10.2015
Rating,
opinion poll,
’03.2016
Anti-rating,
opinion poll,
’03.2016
Electoral balance
(rating – anti-
rating)
Buryak V. 31,9 45 9 +36
Frolov M. 12,9 4 13 -9
Grishin Ya, 12,3 3 2 +1
Sin O. 9,4 1 18 -17
Kaltsev S. 8,7 2 10 -8
Starukh O. 6,1 - -
Zotov V. 4,0 - -
Knysh T. 3,3 - -
Vasilenko B. 2,5 - -
Zavgorodnyaya N. 2,1 1 1
Your option 1
It is difficult to say definitely 26
I would not go to the election 17
There is no such person 48
The electoral balance: who is growing and who loses?
Dynamics of changes in public opinion
31,9
12,9
12,3
9,4
8,7
45
4
3
1
2
0 20 40 60
Buryak V.
Frolov M.
Grishin Ya.
Sin O.
Kaltsev S.
Results of opinion poll, '03.2016 Official results, '10.2015
3/17/2016 9
The growth of rating marked only in relation of the incumbent
mayor if to compare with the official results of the first round of
local elections-2015. And the reasons of such situation are:
«-» «+»
47
52
48
44
36
48
46
11
2
9
14
9
3
9
0 20 40 60
Aleksandrovskiy
Zavodskoy
Kommunarskiy
Dneprovskiy
Voznesenovskiy
Khortitskiy
Shevchenkovskiy
Antipathy to V. Buryak
Support to V. Buryak
The level of support of V. Buryak to the
position of mayor within each district
firstly, the exclusion of political information among the primary
interest of citizens due to falling levels of its relevance, and, as a
consequence, the loss of the erstwhile electoral support of the
ex-opponents of V. Buryak;
secondly, a psychological human desire to join the leader, in this case - the winner
of the mayoral elections;
thirdly, the accumulated psychological fatigue that
actualize in the city inhabitants the need to seek
guarantees of stability as well as the emergence of hope,
which are the people associate with the newly elected
mayor.
The electoral balance: who is growing and who loses?
Profiles of electoral groups
3/17/2016 10
Параметр
Supported
V. Buryak
(N = 366)
Do not support V. Buryak
but DO NOT FEEL
ANTIPATHY to him
(N = 437 )
Do not support
V. Buryak and FEEL
ANTIPATHY to him
(N = 69)
GE
ND
ER Male 43,2 49,2 46,4
Female 56,8 50,8 53,6
AG
E
18 – 29 11,2 21,0 20,3
30 – 39 12,6 21,0 23,3
40 – 49 16,4 19,8 23,2
50 – 59 18,3 17,8 21,7
60 + 41,5 20,5 11,6
ED
UC
AT
ION General Secondary 20,5 13,3 7,2
Specialized secondary 40,7 35,2 23,2
Higher 38,8 51,5 69,6
1 2 3
The electoral balance: who is growing and who loses?
Profiles of electoral groups
3/17/2016 11
Parameters
Supported
V. Buryak
(N = 366)
Do not support V. Buryak
but DO NOT FEEL
ANTIPATHY to him
(N = 437 )
Do not support
V. Buryak and FEEL
ANTIPATHY to him
(N = 69)
SO
CIA
LS
TA
TU
S
Leaders 1,1 3,2 4,3
Private entrepreneurs 2,5 4,6 8,7
Engineering and technical staff with
specialized secondary or higher
education
5,8 6,9 5,8
The specialists in the humanitarian
sphere with specialized secondary or
higher education
11,0 15,2 21,7
Technical and support staff 4,9 5,1 1,4
Trade and service workers 5,5 7,1 5,8
Skilled workers 11,2 12,4 11,6
General workers 0,8 1,6 1,4
The specialists in the power sector 0,8 3,7 2,9
Students 2,7 3,7 2,9
Pensioners 44,1 23 21,7
Housewives 5,8 6 2,9
Unemployed 3,8 7,6 8,7
2 31
The electoral balance: who is growing and who loses?
Profiles of electoral groups
33,9
49,2
1,6
0,8
14,5
3,2
14,1
17,1
8,2
57,4
1,4
5,8
31,9
30,4
30,4
Positively
Rather positive
Rather negative
Negatively
Hard to say
V. Buryak antipathicsAbstemious*V. Buryak electoral group
Significant change for thebetter
Some changes for thebetter
No changes
Some changes for theworse
Significant change for theworse
It is difficult to saydefinitely
V. Buryak antipathicsAbstemiousV. Buryak electoral group
3,4
3/17/2016 12
2 31
Assessment of V. Buryak's work as a mayor
of the city within the different electoral
groups
37,9
4,8
10,1
30,1
17,1
Whole
sample, %
2,5
2,91,40,5
11,66,8
2,2
72,576,5
37,7
11,248,1
11,6
1,4
0,79
Assessment of the changes in Zaporizhzhia
and its character within different electoral
groups
4,5
4,5
4,5
4,5
4,5
4,5
* Abstemious – those who do not ready to vote for
V. Buryak, but at the same time do not feel antipathy to him.
The electoral balance: who is growing and who loses?
3/17/2016 13
Decommunization:
for or against?
3/17/2016 14
13,7
9,6
11,3
53,7
9,8
1,9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Fully support
Rather support
Rather unsupport
Completely unsupport
I do not care
Difficult to say
Decommunization: for or against?
February 19, 2016 at the session of the Zaporizhzhia municipal council, it was
decided to rename the 115 streets and to dismantle the monuments of the Soviet
epoch (Lenin, Dzerzhinsky, Ordzhonikidze) within decommunisation policy in
Ukraine.
Tell me, please, what do you think about this decision?
23,3%
65,0%NO SUPPORT
SUPPORT
18 - 29 30 - 39 40 - 49 50 - 59 60+
16,6% 17,1% 18,2% 20,9% 27,3%
General SecondarySpecialized
secondaryHigher
16% 25,1% 58,9
Male Female
46% 54%
Male Female
45% 55%
General Secondary Specialized secondary Higher
16,7% 42% 41,3%
18 - 29 30 - 39 40 - 49 50 - 59 60+
14,9% 17,6% 19,0% 18,4% 30,1%
1 2
3/17/2016 15
18,4
27,4
39,1
71,8
59,453,6
7,711,6
7,2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Electorate of the mayor(V. Buryak)
Abstemious Antipathics to the mayor (V. Buryak)
Supported in some extentNot supported in some extentDo not care
The level of support of decision concerning
decommunization within different electoral groups21
30,7
12,9
23,227,2 27,3
19,2 21
Aleksandrovskiy Zavodskoy Kommunarskiy Dneprovskiy Voznesenovskiy Khortitskiy Shevchenkovskiy
The level of support of the decision concerning
decommunization within districts
Decommunization: for or against?
* Abstemious – those who
do not ready to vote for
V. Buryak, but at the same
time do not feel antipathy to
him.
3/17/2016 16
New patrol police: estimates
and expectations?
3/17/2016 17
Expectations
Rate,
whole
sample
Rate,
Category
«Electorate of
V. Buryak»
Rate,
Category
«Moderate
electorate»
Rate,
Category
«Antipathics
of V. Buryak»
Increasing the level of protection of the citizens from the
arbitrariness and lawlessness38,3 40,4 36,5 39,1
Restoring the order on the roads 37,4 41,2 34,2 40,6
Increasing the level of confidence of the population to
representatives of Patrol Police26,8 28,0 25,7 29,0
Reducing the level of corruption on the roads 21,0 23,4 19,0 17,4
Elevated levels of citizens responsibility for their actions 16,5 17,0 16,1 14,5
Started reforms in other spheres of society 15,3 14,6 15,8 14,5
Distrust of citizens 6,6 5,5 7,6 5,8
Protest by the former employees of the road patrol
service6,8 6,9 6,7 2,9
Your option 0,5 - 0,9 1,4
Do not expect any changes, everything will be the same 38,1 36,0 39,9 33,3
I do not know anything about it 0,6 0,8 0,5 -
New patrol police: estimates and expectations?
The start of work new patrol police is planned to the
March-April. What do you expect from this reform in our
city?
3/17/2016 18
Social-demographic profiles different categories of
citizens (depending on expectation from new police)
Parameters
Do not expect any
changes
(N = 305)
Expect mistrust and
protest
(N = 93)
Expect changes for the
better
(N = 460)
GE
ND
ER Male 50,2 48,4 44,1
Female 49,8 51,6 55,9
AG
E
18 – 29 13,1 17,2 17,8
30 – 39 15,1 24,7 18,0
40 – 49 22,3 11,8 16,3
50 – 59 16,4 17,2 19,3
60 + 33,1 29,0 28,5
ED
UC
AT
ION General Secondary 18,4 21,5 14,2
Specialized secondary 38,5 32,3 38,1
Higher 43,1 46,2 47,7
New patrol police: estimates and expectations?
3/17/2016 19
What do you think about the work of the new patrol police in Kiev,
Dnepropetrovsk, L’vov ...?
EvaluationRate,
whole sample
Rate,
Category
«Electorate of V.
Buryak»
Rate,
Category
«Moderate
electorate»
Rate,
Category
«Antipathics of
V. Buryak»
Excellent. This is one of the few examples
of the real implementation of the reforms in
our country.
5,6 6,8 4,6 8,7
Good. There is a hope that the reforms in
our country are still possible, although
there are questions to the new police.
23,9 25,2 22,8 27,5
Satisfactorily. Better than it was, but
worse than expected.19,7 20,5 18,9 21,7
Unsatisfactorily. New police had
discredited themselves during that time and
I have no the feeling that something has
changed for the better.
13,2 10,7 15,3 14,5
Your option 0,4 - 0,7 2,9
It is difficult to say definitely, I do not know
enough about their work37,3 36,7 37,8 24,6
New patrol police: estimates and expectations?
3/17/2016 20
Social-demographic profiles different categories of citizens
depending on the evaluation of the police’s work
5 4 3 2 Difficult to say
excellent good unsatisfactorilysatisfactorily
29,5%19,7% 13,2%
Male 47,7 51,9 56,6 38,3
Female 52,3 48,1 43,4 61,7
18 – 29 21,5 21,5 14,2 13,7
30 – 39 18,4 18,4 18,9 15,7
40 – 49 18,4 18,4 27,4 14,0
50 – 59 13,9 13,9 14,2 19,0
60 + 27,8 27,8 25,5 37,7
General Secondary 17,7 17,7 19,8 15,4
Specialized
secondary36,7 36,7 40,6 42,3
Higher 45,6 45,6 39,6 42,3
37,3%
New patrol police: estimates and expectations?
3/17/2016 21
Evaluation of the police action in the situation that has
led to the deaths of seventeen year old man (Kiev)
Evaluation
Rate,
whole
sample
Rate,
Category
«Electorate of
V. Buryak»
Rate,
Category
«Moderate
electorate»
Rate,
Category
«Antipathics
of V. Buryak»
Definitely the police were right to carry out their
duties.20,5 22,5 18,9 31,9
Most likely, the police acted correctly, though the
situation is not easy and there is a necessity in detailed
study of the circumstances of the incident.
23,2 26,1 20,7 18,8
Most likely, the police exceeded their powers. I do not
think that it is necessary to fire on the car, even if it
does not stop at signals patrol.
14,9 12,9 16,6 14,5
Definitely police actions are not correct. This is
lawlessness to shoot at the car with people, even if it
violates the rules of the road. It is necessary to use
other methods.
11,6 9,9 13,0 15,9
Your option 0,2 0,3 0,2 -
It is difficult to say definitely 10,2 10,2 10,3 10,1
I do not know anything about this incident 19,3 18,1 20,3 8,7
New patrol police: estimates and expectations?
3/17/2016 22
Expectations for 2016:
survival or development?
3/17/2016 23
47,2
15,4
11,1
10,1
8,1
3
2,7
1,9
0,5
0 10 20 30 40 50
Survival
Changes for the better
Adaptation to the difficulteconomic conditions
Decline
Saving of acquired
Growth
Stability
It is difficult to answer
Your option
Expectations for 2016: survival or development?
Taking to the attention difficult economic situation in the
country, what can you say about your expectations from
2016. For me / my family, it will be a year ...?
55% of pessimistic part of
inhabitants, are in the age of 50
years and elder with a dominant
secondary special education and a
high rate of pensioners, as well as
professionals involved in physical
labor
40% of optimistic part of
inhabitants, are in the age under 39
years, with higher education and
higher rate of employment in the
intellectual sphere, managers and
entrepreneurs
3/17/2016 24
Cabinet of Ministers: support
or resignation?
3/17/2016 25
54,8
16,7
9,8 6,9 11,8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Stronglysupports
resignation
Rather supportthe resignation
Rather againstthe resignation
Definitely againstthe resignation
Hard to say
Cabinet of Ministers: support or resignation?
How do you feel about the resignation of A. Yatsenyuk
and all the Cabinet of Ministers?
Support the resignation
in some extent
71,5%
Against the resignation
in some extent
16,7%
9
51
14
10
2
2
11
1
7
35
21
14
6
5
9
1
2
Saving of acquired
Survival
Changes for the better
Adaptation to difficulteconomic conditions
Growth
Stability
Decline
Your option
Hard to say
Against the resignation Support the resignation
Interconnection between the
supporting of the resignation of
ministers and expectations from 2016
Contacts3/17/2016 26
3/17/2016 27
Contacts
www.mlsgroup.com.ua
+380 (97) 7213496
+380 (50) 2826894
Zaporizhzhia
158 Lenin (Soborniy) prospect, of. 245
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