The Real Deals (03-05-2012)

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1/8SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

THE REAL DEALS Ins & Outs of Singapore Real EstateSingapore

Co. Reg No: 198700034EMICA (P) : 099/03/2012

3 May 2012

Wat erc olours Make a SplashLocated in close proximity to Pasir Ris Park, Executive condominium (EC) Watercolours opened forapplications on Labour Day. In 2011, the site was heatedly bidded for, receiving a total of 11 bids. Aconsortium comprising Ho Lee Group, EVIA Real Estate, UE E&C, and GPS Alliance scored the winning bidwith SGD122.2m that translates into a land price of SGD291 psf ppr and an estimated break-even price ofSGD560 psf. The indicative selling prices range from SGD680720 psf, approximately 15% cheaper thanthe recently-launched Ripple Bay by MCL Land and 24% lower than Far Easts Seastrand that was launchedlast May. However, the latter two projects are full-fledged condominiums and not ECs. Watercolourscomprising 416 dwelling units has already received a staggering 400 online applications. Another EC, OneCanberra, was launched last week by developer MCC Land. The site features 650 units with a total GFA of730,700 sq ft, and is situated next to Far Easts Eight Courtyards, a private condominium. We expect the

selling price to average SGD700 psf, around 15% below Eight Courtyards average selling price of SGD826psf.

With the ECs priced so competitively compared to the private condominiums, we expect both ECs to beoversubscribed. The government has recently tweaked its EC policy to substantially increase the unitsallocated for 2nd-timers from 5% to 30%. We expect many second-timers to try their luck, drawn by therelatively attractive prices. If this round of EC launches is not to your taste, dont fret, as three more ECs willbe launched within this year or the next.

Since 2010, 16 EC sites were sold under the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme and 13 have beenlaunched by developers. As of 1Q12, the stock of completed EC units stands at 10,430 units. Currently,7,139 units are in the pipeline, while another 2,900 units are expected to be released by GLS by year-end. In1Q12, developers launched 1,864 EC units and sold 1,557 units, compared to 432 in 4Q11.

Sites zoned for ECs since 2010

Source: onemap.sg

EC sites

2011 EC tender awarded & launched

EC sites recentl sold

One Canberra

Watercolours

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3 May 2012 Page 2 of 8

THE REAL DEALSIns & Outs of Singapore Real Estate

Project name One Canberra

Address Yishun Avenue 7/Canberra Dr

Developer MCC LandDistrict 27Est. breakeven price SGD570 psfSelling price Est SGD700 psf (approx. 15%

discount to private new launches)Total units 665Neighbouring newlaunches

Eight Courtyards, CanberraResidences

Avg. new sale price SGD826 psf

District median rental SGD2.31 psf pm

Source: onemap.sg

Neighbouring resale prices

Source: URA

Yishun Sapphire and Yishun Emerald are located just north of Eight Courtyards. Both projects that were completed in2002 are on a 99-year leasehold. Together, they hold 816 units. The average resale prices in 2011 are around 15

20% below the new sale prices observed at Eight Courtyards. From the current rental listings, landlords are asking forrental prices in the SGD2.73 psf pm range, implying a yield of between 45%.

Project name Watercolours

Address Pasir Ris Drive 3/ Pasir Ris Link

Developer Ho Lee Group Pte Ltd & Maxdin PteDistrict 17Est. breakeven price SGD560 psfSelling price SGD680720 psf (approx. 15%

discount to Ripple Bay)Total units 417Neighbouring newlaunches

Ripple Bay, Seastrand

Avg. new sale price SGD850 psfDistrict median rental SGD2.51 psf pm

Source: onemap.sg

Neighbouring resale prices

Source: URA

Other than new launches such as Ripple Bay and Seastrand, along Jalan Loyang Besar are a clutter of small privateprojects such as Celadon View, Coastal Breeze Residences and JLB Residences.

200

400

600

800

1000

Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12

Yishun Sapphire Yishun Emerald

200300400500600700800900

10001100

Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12

Celadon View Coast Breeze Residences JLB ResidencesCoastal Breeze Residences

Trend ing ECs

One CanberraTOP: 2016

Eight CourtyardsDev: Far EastTOP: 2014Latest ASP: $788psfLand price: $193.1psf

WatercoloursTOP: 2016

Sea Esta(to be launched)Dev: Hoi Hup,Sunway, StraitsConstruction

Ripple BayDev: MCL LandTOP: 2016Latest ASP: $808psfLand price: $402 psf

SeastrandDev: Far EastTOP: 2014

Latest ASP: $925 psfLand price: $335 psf

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Upper Serangoon View/Upper Serangoon Road Punggol Central/Edgefield PlainsDeveloper Ho Lee Group & Evia Realty Developer Qingjiang Realty (South

Pacific)GFA/Units 828,824 sqft/435 units GFA/Units 427,604 sq ft/395 unitsNeighbouringproject/Selling price

BoathouseResidences/SGD914 psf

Neighbouringproject/Selling price

Watertown/SGD1,284 psf

Est. Breakeven price SGD565615 psf Est. Breakeven price SGD570630 psf

Fernvale LaneDeveloper Peak LivingGFA/Units 236,807/770Neighbouringproject/Selling price

Seletar ParkResidences/SGD1,162 psf

Est. Breakeven price SGD566620 psf

Source: URA, HDB

Upc om ing EC launches

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MARKET SNAPSHOT 03 May 2012Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 [email protected]

Recent EC resa le t ransac t ionsProject

Size(sq m)

Price($psf)

Contractmonth

Nuovo 129 774 Apr-12

NorthOaks 116 655 Apr-12

The Esparis 225 657 Apr-12

The Quintet 119 565 Apr-12


Whitewater 105 750 Apr-12

Northoaks 113 658 Apr-12

The Eden at Tampines 115 784 Apr-12



The Rivervale 116 725 Apr-12

The Dew 122 754 Apr-12

Yew Mei Green 131 686 Apr-12

Pinevale 120 677 Apr-12

Summerdale 111 741 Apr-12

The Quntet 117 700 Apr-12

The Florida 129 648 Apr-12

Windermere 134 624 Apr-12

Woodsvale 120 647 Apr-12

Nuovo 227 667 Apr-12


The Florida 114 693 Apr-12Yew Mei Green 161 577 Apr-12

Pinevale 129 654 Apr-12


Bishan Loft 128 980 Apr-12


Yew Mei Green 124 671 Apr-12

The Eden at Tampines 121 752 Apr-12


Woodsvale 117 657 Apr-12Source: URA

Proper ty Stoc ks

Name Price RNAV

Disc/Prem

toRNAV NTA/share*

Disc/Prem to

NTA/shareCapitaLand 2.97 4.95 -40% 3.51 -15%CityDev 10.4 12.4 -16% 7.51 38%Ho Bee 1.355 3.18 -57% 2.34 -42%HPL 2 4.39 -54% 2.7 -26%KepLand 3.15 5.77 -45% 3.64 -13%SC Global 0.995 3.6 -72% 1.59 -37%SingLand 5.99 9.82 -39% 10.74 -44%UOL 4.64 N.A. N.A. 6.43 -28%Wheelock 1.79 N.A. N.A. 2.35 -24%Wing Tai 1.19 2.81 -58% 2.47 -52%

N.A. = No Coverage *As at latest reported

Property Pr ice Ind ic es

Index Level Change

SRPI Overall (Mar 12) 165.4 +0.8%URA PPI (1Q12) 206.0 -0.1%HDB Resale (1Q12) 191.0 +0.6%

Governm ent Land Sales (GLS)Recently Awarded Sites

Site

Sitearea

(k sqm) Units Awarded to

Landprice

(S$m)Psf.Ppr

Jalan Lempeng 68.4 685 IOI Corp 408 554

Kovan Road /Simon Road

35.7 360Hoi Hupconsortium

195 507

Jervois Road 12.5 140 Singapore Land 119 881

Bedok SouthAvenue 3

60.2 595Far East/Frasers/ SekisuiHouse

346 534

Hillview Avenue 35.4 370KingsfordDevelopment

243 638

Up SerangoonView/ UpSerangoon Rd(EC)

43.4 435Ho Lee GroupPte & Evia RealEstate

142 303

Punggol Central/Edgefield (EC) 13.2 395 Qingjian Realty(South Pacific) 137 320Fernvale Lane(EC)

22.0 770 Peak Living Pte 245 296

Elias Rd/ Pasir Ris

Dr 3 32.7 295

Elitist

Development 166 461

Confirmed List

SiteSite area

(k sqm) UnitsTender

Closing

Woodlands Ave 5/ Woodlands Dr 16(EC)

25.8 720 3-May

Tampines Central 7/ Tampines Ave7/ Tampines Av 9 (EC)

20.8 580 10-May

Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel A) 56.2 600 17-May

Boon Lay Way (Jurong Gateway) 48.7 590 29-May

Sengkang Square/ CompassvaleDrive

60.7 710 31-May

Pasir Ris Dr 3 22.3 670 5-June

Buangkok Drive/ Sengkang Central 18.3 620 12-June

Reserve List (Recently Open for Tender)Site area (k sqm) Units

Jalan Jurong Kechil 14.2 240

Stirling Road 88.6 1045

Tampines Av 10 (Parcel B) 47.9 515

Farrer Dr & Rd 10.0 140

Alexandra View 41.2 455

Punggol Way/ Punggol Walk (EC) 18.7 560

Bishan Street 14 11.2 590

Source: HDB, URA

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Primary Mark et

Totalno. ofunits

Unitssold

to-date

Take-uprate(%)

Unitssold

(Mar)Median

($psf)

City & Southwest (1-8)

Skyline Residences 283 208 73% 14 2,092

Orchard / Tanglin / Holland (9-10)

The Scotts Tower 231 60 26% 9 3,265Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21)

Thomson Grand 361 296 82% 54 1,270Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14)

Millage 70 69 99% 69 1,379

Levenue 43 41 95% 41 1,242

Smart Suites 72 34 47% 34 1,448

Cradels 125 35 28% 31 1,308

18 Woodsville 101 30 30% 30 1,735

Ness 62 31 50% 25 1,267

Centra Residences 78 68 87% 20 1,330

Riviera 38 102 42 41% 20 1,100

Primedge 36 22 61% 18 1,236

Vacanza @ East 473 410 87% 10 1,131East Coast (15-16)

Archipelago 577 271 47% 93 1,074

East Village 90 83 92% 83 1,309

Sycamore Tree 96 55 57% 41 1,388

The Cristallo 74 38 51% 38 1,330

Flamingo Valley 393 226 58% 27 1,229

The Lush 37 19 51% 19 1,397Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18)

Ripple Bay 679 326 48% 326 883Palm Isles 429 102 24% 102 860

The Palette 892 609 68% 74 905

NV Residences 642 642 100% 12 849Serangoon / Thomson (19-20)

Twin Waterfall (EC) 728 625 86% 369 725

The Minton 1145 1062 93% 118 890

Riversound Residences 590 310 53% 115 880

Seletar Park Residence 276 98 36% 98 1162

Bartley Residences 702 251 36% 86 1,246

The Luxurie 622 322 52% 48 1048

Casa Cambio 198 192 97% 45 1437

Parc Vera 452 287 63% 39 834

Austville Residences (EC) 540 493 91% 37 695

Watertown 992 935 94% 28 1,342Terrasse 414 382 92% 27 1,001

Cardiff Residences 163 124 76% 19 1,282

Boathouse Residences 493 374 76% 18 900

A Treasure Trove 882 820 93% 10 940West (22-24)

The Rainforest (EC) 466 408 88% 56 738

Natura@Hillview 193 56 29% 56 1334

The Hillier 528 478 91% 30 1,412

Blossom Residences(EC) 602 505 84% 15 704North (25-28)

Tampines Trilliant (EC) 670 338 50% 153 798

Parc Rosewood 689 607 88% 41 1038

The Nautical 435 251 58% 40 882

The Miltonia Residences 410 358 87% 14 869Eight Courtyards 654 555 85% 13 827

Source: URA

Secondary Mark et

District$psf

Feb12$psf

Mar12MoM %change

City & Southwest 1,347 1,347 0.0Orchard/Tanglin/Holland 1,776 1,743 -1.9

Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi 1,207 1,233 2.2

Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang 928 990 6.7East Coast 977 1,031 5.5Changi/Pasir Ris 774 802 3.7Serangoon/Thomson 899 880 -2.2

West 793 791 -0.2

North 710 743 4.7Source: URA

Renta l Mark et

District

$psf pm

Feb12

$psf pm

Mar12

MoM %

changeCity & Southwest 4.8 4.6 -5.2Orchard/Tanglin/Holland 4.6 4.5 -1.4Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi 3.6 3.5 -3.2Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang 3.2 3.1 -3.9East Coast 3.3 3.2 -2.0Changi/Pasir Ris 2.8 2.7 -2.0Serangoon/Thomson 3.1 3.1 1.3West 2.8 2.8 1.4North 3.0 2.6 -12.9

Source: URA

Top 5 Resa le Transac t ions by $psf

Project Tenure District $psfHelio Residences Freehold 9 3,402

Marina Collection 99 Yr (fm 2007) 4 2,825

Nassim 9 Freehold 10 2800

The Claymore Freehold 9 2,674

Grange Residences Freehold 10 2,671Source: URA

Bot t om 5 Resa le T ransact ions by $psf

Project Tenure District $psf

Lakeside Tower 99 Yr (fm 1975) 22 460

Chinatown Plaza Freehold 2 551

Lakeside Apartments 99 Yr (fm 1977) 22 552

Lakepoint Condo 99 Yr (fm 1983) 22 557

Hong Heng Garden Freehold 26 564Source: URA

MARKET SNAPSHOT (CONTD) 03 May 2012Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 [email protected]

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Developer District Landbank Tenure Unsold Units

City Dev

3 Alexandra Road GLS site 99yr 545

6 South Beach (Beach Road) 99yr 1189 Futura (Leonie Road) Freehold 12210 Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Freehold 20310 Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Freehold 17811 Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Freehold 517 Hedges Park (Flora Road) 99yr 15018 NV Residences (Pasir Ris) 99yr 28318 The Palette (Pasir Ris) 99yr 1,51718 Pasir Ris Drive 8 (4 + 5) (Pasir Ris) 99yr 60518 Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North Freehold 13519 H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) 99yr 45119 Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) 99yr 78519 Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley) 99yr 5823 The Rainforest (EC) (Choa Chu Kang Drive) 99yr 9723 Blossom Residences (EC) (Segar Road) 99yr 207

Sentosa Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) 99yr 545Total Unsold Units 5,459

KepLand 1 Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) 99yr 682 Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Freehold 6204 Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) 99yr 2864 Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) 99yr 3074 Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) 99yr 2344 Keppel Bay Plot 5 (Keppel Bay) 99yr 9419 Sengkang GLS site (Sengkang Square) 99yr 300

Total Unsold Units 1,909

CapitaLand

3 The Interlace (Gillman Heights) 99yr 3369 Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Freehold 3910 Dleedon (Farrer Rd) 99yr 1,24910 The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Freehold 5515 Marine Point (Marine Parade) Freehold 15016 Bedok Residences(Bedok Central) 99yr 7220 Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) 99yr 50926 Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Freehold 140


Ho Bee Sentosa Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) 99yr 110Sentosa Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) 99yr 357

Total Unsold Units 467

UOL 2 Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Freehold 1116 Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) 99yr 306


Allgreen 2 Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) 99yr 1875 The Surrento (West Coast Road) Freehold 1319 RV Residences (River Valley) 999yr 24812 RiverBay (Mar Thoma Rd) 999yr 14712 Riviera 38 (Mar Thoma Rd) 999yr 6021 The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Freehold 20


Wheelock 9 Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Freehold 7410 Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Freehold 84


DEVELOPER S LANDBANK 03 May 2012Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 [email protected]

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DEVELOPER S LANDBANK (CONTD) 03 May 2012Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 [email protected]

Developer District Landbank Tenure Unsold Units

Guocoland2 Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah/Choon Guan) 99yr 50010 Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) 99yr 38126 The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Freehold 36


Bt Sembawang

4 Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) Freehold 759 The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Freehold 559 Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Freehold 249 Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) Freehold 889 St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Freehold 22127 Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Freehold 8028 Nim Road (Nim Road) Freehold 23228 Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) 999yr 80


Frasers Centrepoint

9 Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) 99yr 24915 Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Freehold 19716 Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) 99yr 2316 Bedok South GLS site (Bedok South Avenue 3) 99yr 59518 Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) 99yr 9718 Palm Isles (Flora Drive) 99yr 32719 Boathouse Residences (Hougang) 99yr 11919 Watertown (Punggol) 99yr 4719 Twin Waterfalls (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) 99yr 10327 Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) 99yr 99


Wing Tai

3 Ascentia Sky (Redhill) 99yr 179 HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Freehold 649 Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Freehold 3810 Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Freehold 4210 Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) Freehold 15711 L'VIV (Newton Rd) Freehold 3523 Foresque Residences (Petir Road) 99yr 276


MCL Land

10 Palms @ Sixth Avenue (6 avenue) Freehold 3210 NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Freehold 7015 Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Freehold 6517 Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) 99yr 35319 Terrasse (Hougang Ave 2) 99yr 32


SC Global

9 The Marq (Paterson Hill) Freehold 359 Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Freehold 2089 Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) Freehold 2310 The Ardmore (Ardmore Road) Freehold 50

Sentosa Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) 99yr 31Total Unsold Units 347

Grand Total 16,809

Source: HDB, URA

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The Real Deals (03-05-2012)

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