THE RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE. US ELECTIONS The US electoral system is very much like a foot race...
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Transcript of THE RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE. US ELECTIONS The US electoral system is very much like a foot race...
![Page 1: THE RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE. US ELECTIONS The US electoral system is very much like a foot race between the candidates.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032806/56649f0c5503460f94c1fee2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
THE RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE
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US ELECTIONS
• The US electoral system is very much like a foot race between the candidates.
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US ELECTIONS
• Candidates need:– Money – Publicity– Hired Gun / Architect – Campaign Expert– Staff and workers– A strategy or theme – Cater to party hard core
here since they will be the voters in primaries– A LOT OF HELP FROM OUTSIDE GROUPS – ISSUE
ADS
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CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
• There are 2 steps in the process of getting elected to Congress.
• 1.) Getting the Nomination of your Party
• 2.) Winning the General Election
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CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
• 1. Getting the Nomination • Each political party uses a primary or a caucus
to select their candidates• Primary = an election in which voters
registered in a political party choose the party’s nominee (Open or Closed)
• Caucus = Closed meeting of party leaders at the state and local level to select candidates
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CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
• How is the winner chosen?• We use an electoral system called Single
Member District First Past the Post Elections.• The Parties run a candidate in each district
and the winner is the one with a plurality of votes
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GETTING ELECTED TO CONGRESS
• 2. What are the differences between our bicameral legislatures?
Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 7
House of Representatives Senate1.) 435 members2.) Based on Population 3.) 2 year Term 4.) Entire House up for re-election every 2 years5.) Members elected from single member districts6.) Very Constituent connected
1.) 100 members2.) Equality – 2 per state 3.) 6 year term4.) Staggered elections with 1/3 up every 2 years5.) Members elected state wide6.) More nationally focused
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GETTING ELECTED TO CONGRESS
• 7. So what in the name of all that is holy does the “Incumbency Advantage” mean?
• What is an incumbent?
• What is the advantage?
Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 8
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Figure 13.2: Percentage of Incumbents Reelected to Congress
Harold W. Stanley and Richard G. Niemi, Vital Statistics on American Politics, 1999-2000 (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 2000), table 1-18; 2004 updated by Marc Siegal.
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Incumbents Reelected to Congress
Open Secrets – Current Numbers
http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/reelect.php
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INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE
• A.) What is the point of the graph?• The Incumbency Advantage – statistical
advantage incumbents have in re-election• The great likelihood that a current office
holder will be re-elected to office because of the advantages of the incumbent
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INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE
• D.) Identify and explain factors that contribute to the Incumbency Advantage.
Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 12
Name Recognition
Franking
Pork Barrel Legislation
Constituent Services
Partisan Redistricting - Gerrymandering
Campaign Experience
Sophomore Surge
Easier to fund raise – Campaign finance rules benefit incumbent
Access to media
Staff Assistance
Access to Gov’t research
Washington Experience
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INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE
• B.) Analyze positive and negative effect that the Incumbency Advantage has on American Politics.
Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 13
Positive Negative
•Stability and Continuity •More democratic – voter choice•Incremental change and not radical•More experienced political leaders•Better working relationship with Interests
•Lack of responsiveness / Accountability•Fewer Women in Congress•Fewer Minorities•Too policy specialized•Discourages challengers
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THE COSTS OF SEATS IN CONGRESS
• COST OF WINNING SEAT IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 13 | 14
Type of Candidate Total $ Raised Number of Candidates
Average $ Raised
Incumbent $635,589,757 420 $1,513,308
Challenger $295,852,172 1,115 $265,338
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THE COSTS OF SEATS IN CONGRESS
• COST OF WINNING SEAT IN THE US SENATE
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Type of Candidate Total $ Raised Number of Candidates
Average $ Raised
Incumbent $337,324,712 30 $11,244,157
Challenger $147,338,169 153 $962,994
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PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING
• In order to understand this issue, you need to Play A Game!
• http://www.redistrictinggame.org/
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GERRYMANDERING
• This issue is one of the most egregious examples of conflict of interest in politics today. The Fox is in Charge of the Hen House!
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GERRYMANDERING
• Started with Elbridge Gerry
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PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING
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PENNSYLVANIA DISTRICTS
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PENNSYLVANIA DISTRICTS
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PARTISAN CONTROL OF REDISTRICTING
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
• Voters directly choose the winner of each Congressional seat.
• However, Presidential Elections are more complicated.
• Voters indirectly choose the President.• The final choice on who becomes the next US
President is made by the Electoral College.
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
• 3 steps to winning the White House • 1.) Getting the Nomination – The
Primaries and Caucus Stage • 2.) Campaigning at the Convention • 3.) Winning the General Election in
November
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Winning the Election – What do candidates need:– Money – Publicity - TV Time – Hired Gun / Architect – Campaign Expert– Staff and workers– A strategy or theme – Come back to the middle
now to attract the voters in the middle
–More EC votes than other candidate!
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US ELECTIONS CANDIDATE $ RAISED # OF VOTES AVERAGE $ PER
VOTEBarack Obama (D) $532,946,511 69,498,215 $7.39
John McCain (R) $379,006,485 59,948,240 $5.78
Ralph Nader (I) $4,496,180 738,720 $5.67
Bob Barr (L) $1,383,681 523,713 $2.57
2012 Presidential Election Totals
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
• 1.) Getting the Nomination – The Primaries and Caucus Stage
• Cater to the Party Hardliners to win this stage since voter turnout is so low.
• Watch out for Front Loading• What is the big deal here?
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
2.) Campaigning at the Convention Each state sends a set number of delegates to
the convention based on the size of the sate’s population and success in past elections.
Candidate needs to select a VP running mate – “balance the ticket”.
Candidates need a majority of the delegates at the national party convention.
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
• 2.) Campaigning at the Convention • Party platform is written at the convention• Non-binding statement of party’s stance on the issues• Selecting a running mate – Balance the Ticket
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
• 3.) Winning the General Election in November• Now candidates have to come back to the
middle and be more moderate in order to attract the independent voters
• Need money / strategy / publicity and TV time / success at the debates / support from groups to run ads on TV
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
• The Media and TV Ads are key to success. • Daisy Commercial - http://
www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDTBnsqxZ3k&list=PL3072BD7925CE01CA
1988 – George Bush• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx5X3Jd8DI4• 1988 Michael Dukakis• http://
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRPZQ3UEN_Q&list=PL3072BD7925CE01CA
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• In order to win the General Election and become the next US President, a candidate needs a majority of the votes cast by the Electoral College
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• 1. What is the EC?• The group of people from each state that
selects the next US President• 2. Each state gets a number of electors based
on its population– # OF EC VOTES PER STATE = # OF SENATORS + #
OF REPRESETNATIVES IN THE US HOUSE– LOOK AT THE BACK WALL
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• 3. Key is the Census which counts population of each state every 10 years.
• 4. How many total EC votes? 538• 5. How many EC votes needed to
win? 270 – Majority
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• 6. How are the votes allocated (given out) to the candidates?
• 48 states use a winner-take-all system. The candidate with the most votes (PLURALITY) gets ALL of the EC Votes.
• Maine and Nebraska break it down by Congressional District (Win a district and get 1 EC Vote) and the overall winner of the state gets the 2 EC votes for the Senate seats
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• 7. Who selects the Electors? • Each Political party has a list of electors. If that
Party’s candidate wins the state, then that group of electors gets to vote in EC.
• The Electors are SUPPOSED to vote for the candidate that wins their state but NOT absolutely required to do so.
• We do get the occasional “FAITHLESS ELECTOR”
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Reality of voting in a Presidential Election – You are voting for an elector who will then make the vote for President
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• 8. Why do we use this system?• Give people the power to choose the US
President• Federalism – Give states some power over the
selection of the President• Sneaky Founding Fathers – They wanted it to
be a system where the US House of Reps would always have the final say!
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• The Framers predicted that each state would select and vote for their favorite son and then no candidate would ever get a majority
• 9. What happens if no one wins a majority of the EC votes?
• The House of Reps chooses the President and the Senate chooses the VP.
• But the Framers did not see the rise of political parties
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• 10. So what is the schedule?• General Election is on the Tuesday after the
first Monday in November (11/6/2012)• Electoral College members meet in state
capitals in mid-December to cast their votes• Then votes are opened in early January before
the first session of the new Congress. This is when the results are certified.
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• Go to 270 to win to see the results of the 2012 Presidential Election
• http://www.270towin.com/
• What would a 2016 campaign between Hillary and Christie look like
• http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_show_polling.php?mapid=bDyy