The Race to Inner Space: Seeing, Guiding, and Benefiting from Humanity’s Faster, Smaller, Smarter,...
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Transcript of The Race to Inner Space: Seeing, Guiding, and Benefiting from Humanity’s Faster, Smaller, Smarter,...
The Race to Inner Space:Seeing, Guiding, and Benefiting from Humanity’s Faster, Smaller, Smarter, and Wealthier Future
Global Future 2045Feb 2012 Moscow, Russia
John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies FoundationSlides: accelerating.org/slides
Evolution and DevelopmentTwo Basic Processes of Universal Change
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Evolution and Development: See them in Life, See them in the Universe
Consider two ‘genetically identical’ twins:
Their thumbprints, brain wiring, ideas, behaviors, local processes and ‘small things’ are unpredictably unique in each twin.
But many ‘large things’ end up predictably the same, due to special initial conditions and constant physical law.
If the Universe is Like Life, unpredictable and creative evolutionary process works with predictable and convergent developmental process to create universal complexity.
Chaos /Chance
Predetermination /Necessity
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo): The ‘Left and Right Hands’ of Universal Change
““Experimentation”Experimentation”Stochastic SearchStrange AttractorsRadiation
Development
‘Right Hand’ of Change
Evolution
‘Left Hand’ of ChangeWell-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’
““Convergent Unification”Convergent Unification”Environmental OptimizationStandard AttractorsHierarchy
““Natural Selection”Natural Selection”Requisite VarietyMixed AttractorsAdaptation
Evo Devo(Intersection)
Evo Devo Universe?, J. Smart, In: Cosmos & Culture, Steve Dick (ed.), 2009
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Three processes (telos) can be seen in:
Technological Systems Societal Systems Biological Systems Chemical Systems Physical Systems
Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: Three Basic Processes in All Complex Systems
© 2011 Accelerating.orgEvo Devo Universe?, J. Smart, In: Cosmos & Culture, Steve Dick (ed.), 2009
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: Classical Quantitative Relationships in Complex Systems
Normal curvePower law
S curve
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Human Society Also Uses Evolution, Development, and Evo Devo Processes
Ref: Jacob Bronowski, Science and Human Values, 1965
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
© 2011 Accelerating.org
The “95% vs. 5%” Ratio:Evolution vs. Development
Examples:▪ Almost all genes in an organism (eg, 97% of Dictyostelium DNA)
change often to create evolutionary variety vs. a special subset (3%) which form the developmental toolkit and are highly conserved.
▪ Almost all cells in an organism compete for their location. A special few are fated in advance to particular locations early in development.
▪ Almost all ideas and actions in an organism are experiments. A special few become stable strategies, across many environments.
▪ Almost all technology products and services are evolutionary experiments. A few are developments destined to be the next big thing.
Almost all (roughly 95%) of the events and computation to create or control a complex system are bottom-up evolutionary processes.
A small critical subset (~5%) are top-down, hierarchical, developmental processes.
5% Devo
95% Evo
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Examples:Experimentation + Selection + Convergent Unification
Transition from “quantum darwinism” to classical physics (relativity, thermo, classical mechanics) physics (Zurek 2005)
Stellar evolutionary nucleosynthesis to life cycle (Clayton 1968)Molecular evolution to biogenesis (Smith and Morowitz 2006)Multicellular evolution to tissue types (Newman and Bhat 2008)‘Neural Darwinism’ to brain development (Edelman 1989)Cognitive selectionism to conscious thinking (Calvin 1985) ‘Memetic’ imagination to moral universals (Wright 2000)‘Technetic’ selection to technological archetypes (Kelly 2010)Evolutionary computation to artificial intelligence (Koza 1998)Cosmological natural selection to universe devel. (Smolin 1992)
EvoDevoUniverse.com
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
© 2008 Accelerating.org© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evolutionary Convergences (Developmental Attractors): A Few Examples
Evolutionary convergences are developmental attractors in a hierarchical informational computational universe:
Organic (carbon) chemistry (vs. silicon, boron, etc.) Amino acids, purines&pyrimidines, pre-lipids as cell precursors RNA as enzyme and code for protein architectures (Woese) Dynamical pattern modules in multicellularity (Newman 2008) Antifreeze molecules in northern and southern polar fish Placental vs. marsupial mice, moles, rabbits, wolves, tigers, etc. Eyes, body plans, limbs, joints, wings, fins, emotions (Morris) Bilateral symmetry, binocular vision, tetrapod form Prehensile limbs, opposable thumbs, anthropoids (Russell) Mimicry memetics (languages) gestural, behavioral, oral, written Neolithic+ tools (rock, club, spear, lever, rope, wheel, pulley) Internal combustion engine, metallurgy, chemistry, electronics, Math, science, computers, internet, cellphones… Next?
Accelerating Change Evolutionary and Developmental Drivers
of the Race to Inner Space
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar: U-Shaped Curve of Complexity Development
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
A U-Shaped Curve of Change:Inner Space to Outer Space Back to Inner Space Again
Big Bang Singularity
100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap.
1B yrs: Protogalaxies 8B yrs: Earth
400,000 yrs: Matter
50 yrs ago: Machina silico50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds
Developmental Singularity?
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Reproduction and Birth are Energetically Accelerative in Complex Living Systems
Note the energy flow trends in each phase of the life cycle (birth, growth, reproduction, senescence) of a developing organism.
Only reproduction and birth phases are accelerative in living systems.
Stellar reproduction (via supernovas) has the same energetics profile.
Key Question: In an evo devo universe, does complexity accelerate because it is engaged in a process of universal reproduction?
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Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Free Energy (Phi, Φ) of Dissipative Systems:A Hyperbolic Curve of Universal Development
Free energy flow density values inhierarchically emergent CAS.
Energy Flow Density (Φ)
Substrate (ergs/sec/gm)
Global AI of the 21st C 10^12+Pentium II of the 1990's (10^11) Intel 8080 of the 1970's 10^10Modern Engines 10^5 to 10^8Culture (human) 500,000 (10^5)Brains (human) 150,000 (10^5) Animals (hum. body) 20,000 (10^4)Ecosystems 900 Planets (Early) 75Stars 2Galaxies 0.5
Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001
Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto
AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Infotech/Simulation - Virtual Inner Space - Evolution “As Intelligence Rises, Thinking Becomes More Adaptive Than Acting” Adult humans no longer act in novel ways, they think in novel ways. Simulations allow “ephemeralization” (far less mass/energy per action) Rise of scientific simulations. IPCC. NASA Solar System Simulator Telepresence outcompetes traveling for perception Telerobotics/haptics outcompetes traveling for action Google maps, sensors, geoweb, parallelized GPUs: visual cortex for the web. Machine sim data doubles every 2 years. Human sims grow far slower.
Nanotech/Engineering - Physical Inner Space - Development “There’s Plenty of Performance at the Bottom.” Fission 1,000X more E than chem. Fusion 1,000X more E than fission Fuel cells store 100,000X more E/mass than chemical batteries Synthetic catalysts increase reaction speeds & yields 1,000-1,000,000X Programmable synapses use 10^6 less E per comp. than neurons Photonic crystal lasers 10^6 more E efficient than other microlasers Single step efficiency jumps in macro (human) space are always far less
The Race to Inner Space:Civilization’s Hidden Strategic Objectives
The Transcension Hypothesis, J.Smart, 2011; The Future of Scientific Simulations, C. Vidal, 2008