The quizzes have been postponed!
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Transcript of The quizzes have been postponed!
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The quizzes have been postponed!
• New dates for Quiz #2 and Quiz #3 are now set respectively at the 12th of November, and the 5th of December.
• There will be some homework assignments starting from next class.
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Climate modeling: Successes and Challenges
• A little history about climate modeling
• Some basic concepts in the numerical modeling of climate
• Successes
• Challenges
• The future of climate modeling
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A little history about climate modeling
• Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius
(Year:1896)
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A little history about climate modeling
• Manabe’s 3D GCM • Syukuro Manabe
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)
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Some basic concepts
• The Newton’s law applied to the atmosphere and ocean; the conservation of mass, heat, water, etc….
• Represent the atmosphere, the ocean, and other components in the climate system by a set of boxes--the concept of grid and the issue of spatial resolution
• The time step for integration• Numerical instability--constraints on the time step
from the spatial resolution• Parameterization of sub-grid scale phenomena
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Successes and challenges
• Simulation of the surface air temperature
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Successes and challenges
• Simulation of the precipitation
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Successes and challenges
Simulation of the ocean temperature
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Successes and challenges
• Simulation of the sea-ice
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Successes and challenges
• Simulation of the snow extent
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Successes and challenges
• Variability--power spectrum
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Successes and challenges
• Vertical structure of temperature
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Successes and challenges
• Simulation of El Nino warming
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Successes and challenges
Forecast of the 1997-98 El Nino
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The future of climate modeling
• High spatial and temporal resolution• A better parameterization of sub-scale processes• Better observations--improved spatial and
temporal coverage of the observational network• Improved understanding of the
interactions/feedback loops among the components of the climate system
• A better understanding of the model world-model diagnostics
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Model Diagnostics: Evaluating Key Climate Feedbacks
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Model Diagnostics: Evaluating Key Climate Feedbacks
• Water vapor feedback• Cloud feedbacks• Atmospheric circulation feedbacks• Ocean feedbacks• Land surface feedbacks• Biosphere feedbacks• Societal feedbacks
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Model Diagnostics: Evaluating cloud feedbacks
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Model Diagnostics: Evaluating Cloud Feedbacks