The Public’s Perceptions and Experiences with the Economy

in Anne Arundel CountyBy Dan Nataf, Ph.D.

Director, Center for the Study of Local IssuesAnne Arundel Community College

March 22, 2012

www2.aacc.edu/csli

Overview of Survey Process

•CSLI – Part of Sarbanes Center for Public and Community Service at Anne Arundel Community College

•Operating since 1978

•Mission: Provide students opportunities for engaged learning, community outreach

• Main activity – public interest surveys

oRespondents randomly chosen from universe of listed telephone numbers combined with computer generated numbers

oTypical sample size: 400-600 respondents; students introduced to survey methods, used as interviewers, review findings

o Topics – wide ranging, economy, transportation, land use/growth, taxes/spending, schools…

• Last survey – March 5-8, 2012 – focus of most of this presentation• 440 completed surveys• Press releases available online.

• since 1978

www2.aacc.edu/csli

County: Right or Wrong Direction? Spring ‘99 to Spring ‘12

Sp '99

Fa '99

Sp '00

Fa '00

Sp '01

Fa '01

Sp '02

Fa '02

Sp '03

Fa '03

Sp '04

Fa '04

Sp '05

Fa '05

Sp '06

Fa '06

Sp '07

Fa '07

Sp '08

Fa '08

Sp '09

Fa '09

Sp '10

Fa '10

Sp '11

Fa '11

Sp '12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

5754

5855

6266

60 61 62

51

58 58

5357

5551 52 51 50

52

47

52 5249 50

4743

2327

25 24 23

15

26

2125

3431

24

2927 26

2927

33 32 3128 27 28 28 28

32

41

20 1917

20

1519

1418

1315

12

19 1816

1820 21

16 17 17

2521 20

23 22 22

16

Right Wrong Unsure

'06 '07 '07 '08 ‘08 '09 ‘09 ‘10 ‘10 ‘11 ‘11 12Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7

12

8

23

38

48

3336 36 35

48

30

9

1517

16

1210

1211

1311

9

17

21

16 16

12

9

5 5 5

24 4 4

16

12 12 1210

87

89

10

57

119

10

64

68

6 6 68

4

Economy Taxes – too high Growth EducationTransportationCrime / drugs

Most Important Problem Fall 2006 to Spring 2012

Economy shows sharp drop as problem in March 2012

Rating Economic Conditions for the County, State and Nation:

% saying “excellent” or “good”

National State County-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

5

27

46

11

30

48

11

31

44

11

32

45

11

35

49

9

33

48

13

38

51

S '09 S '09 S '09S '10 S '10 S '10S '11

Anne Arundel County vs. USA - % “Excellent and Good”

S '02 F '02 S '03 F '03 S '04 F '04 S '05 F '05 S '06 F '06 S '07 F '07 S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

38

262722

343431 28

3842

3227

17

55 10 11 11 13 9 13

7476

565662

7474

7174 71 71 69

55

4946

4844 45

4948 51

Anne Arundel County - CSLI USA - Gallup

Is there a relationship between income and perceptions of economic conditions?

County State USA0

10

20

30

40

50

60

51

38

13

42

33

12

56

45

15

Overall Under $75k $75k+

p=.8p=.01

p=.2

Percentage saying “excellent’” or “good” to “rate economic con-ditions” questions for county, state and national levels.

Other Demographics and Rating of County Economic Conditions (Excellent+Good)

0 5 10 15 20 25 3025

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Lib, 67

57

42

58

4844

60

43

63

52

62

72

Cath., 5553

33

5352

40

51

6061

5553

5161-64, 49

General economic conditions (1) – % saying ‘applies’ Sp. ‘08-Sp. ‘12

Facin

g the

poss

ibility

of ho

use f

orec

losur

e or l

oss

Foun

d a ne

w or be

tter j

ob re

centl

y

Facin

g the

poss

ibility

of un

emplo

ymen

t0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6

11

4

15

6

24

8

24

7

19

7

21

9

20

8

14

21

8

16 17

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12

General economic conditions (2) – % saying ‘applies’ Sp. ‘08-Sp. ‘12

01020304050607080

3530

71

29

75

51

33

70

4632

5647

34

60

4435

52 4732

6051

3244 45

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12

Economic costs, inflation (1) - % saying ‘applies’

Unable

to fin

d affor

dable

hous

ing

Receiv

ed an

inco

me inc

reas

e

Hard t

o affo

rd th

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rans

porta

tion

Hard t

o affo

rd th

e cos

t of u

tilitie

s suc

h as e

lectri

city o

r gas

Taxe

s are

too h

igh in

relat

ion to

gove

rnmen

t ser

vices

prov

ided

Wages

or sa

laries

are n

ot ris

ing as

fast

as th

e cos

t of li

ving

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

21

40

6156

11

32

50

58 59

12

21

5359

55

1317

42

5955

1521

44

63

56

10

24

43

6056

14

4146

63 63

11

2630

39

58 59

15

35 36 39

63 66

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12

% saying ‘applies’ sorted by Std. Deviation

 Condition S '08

F '08

S '09

F '09

S '10

F '10

S '11

F '11

S '12

Std. Dev.

Significant losses in your stock or retirement accounts n.a. 71 75 70 56 60 52 60 44 9.8

4

Hard to afford cost of transportation 40 32 21 17 21 24 41 30 36 8.31

Hard to afford cost of utilities such as electricity or gas 61 50 53 42 44 43 46 39 39 6.8

Taxes are too high in relation to govt. services provided 47 58 59 59 63 60 63 58 63 4.6

5Received a salary increase or other increase In income recently

n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 26 35 4.5

Facing the possibility of unemployment 11 15 24 24 19 21 20 21 17 3.98

Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living 56 59 55 55 56 56 63 59 66 3.6

5

Unable to find affordable housing 21 11 12 13 15 10 14 11 15 3.13

Delay in making a major purchase such as a home or car n.a. n.a. 51 46 47 44 47 51 45 2.5

5Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequate 35 30 29 33 32 34 35 32 32 1.9

5Facing the possibility of house foreclosure or loss 6 4 6 8 7 7 9 8 8 1.4

1Found a new or better job recently n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 14 16 1

Is there a relationship between income and economic

conditions?

Condition $Under 75,000

$75,000+

Signif.

Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently

27 44 .01

Hard to afford cost of utilities such as electricity or gas

48 28 .01

Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequate

40 25 .01

Unable to find affordable housing 19 10 .02

Facing the possibility of house foreclosure or loss

11 5 .02

Hard to afford the cost of transportation 41 33 .03

Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living

68 62 .04

Delay in making a major purchase such as a home or car

50 41 .06

Facing the possibility of unemployment 19 14 .1

Significant losses in your stock or retirement accounts

41 48 .2

Found a new or better job recently 14 18 .3

Taxes are too high in relation to the government services provided

63 59 .5

Consumer confidence: Spring 2012 – Projection for next 12 months

Economic growth Unemployment Inflation Your personal financial situation0

10

20

30

40

50

60

36 36

9

24

40

35

29

54

14

27

55

18

Better Same Worse

Consumer confidence: Spring 2012 – Projection for next 12 months (Better-

Worse)

Growth Unemployment Inflation Per. Fin. Sit. Overall

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-3-9

-43

-2

-57

22

9

-46

6

-9

Fall -11 Spring '12

Does Income Affect Consumer Confidence?

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

-1* -6*

-41

-6

-54

11*

-5*

-45

-6*

-37*

-8*-16*

-48

1

-71

26*28*

-46

20* 18*

Under $75K Fall '11 Under $75K Sp. '12$75k+ Fall '11 $75k+ Sp. '12

Support for policies affecting taxes, spendingSpring 2012

 Proposal Support

Oppose Unsure No answer

Doubling the so-called ‘flush tax’ from $30 to $60 to help improve wastewater treatment 32 56 10 36% Increase in gasoline tax 21 74 5 0Increasing state funding by $15 million for building affordable rental housing in Maryland 37 51 10 2

The next two proposals would require the county to take funds from other agencies or raise taxes to cover the costs. Shifting pension fund contributions for teachers from the state to the counties 22 63 12 3Strictly enforcing the requirement that local schools be funded at no less than last year’s levels 65 28 6 1

Proposal Support

Oppose

Unsure/NA

Increase the toll on the Bay Bridge from $2.50 to $4.00 33 64 4Create a new tax on ownership of vehicles 10 86 4Increase the state’s property tax, adding $63 million to the fund 11 86 3

Increase the corporate income tax rate by one percent, adding $100 million to the fund

57 39 4

Support for Proposals meant to Replenish Maryland’s Transportation Trust Fund

Fall 2011

Gambling: Support for adding a venue/table games

  Agree Disagree

Unsure No answer

Adding a location in Prince George’s County would increase state revenue significantly 47 44 7 1Adding table games would increase state revenue significantly 51 38 9 2Adding a site in Prince George’s County would reduce revenue at the Arundel Mills site and therefore reduce Anne Arundel County’s revenue 33 48 15 3Adding more sites or table games would lead to significantly more gambling addiction 49 43 7 2Expanding gambling by adding another site has more costs than benefits 42 43 11 4Expanding gambling by adding table games has more costs than benefits 34 48 13 5

Seriousness of Challenges Facing the County – Spring 2012

  Very serious

Somewhat

serious

Not very

serious

Unsure/NA

Pollution of the Bay hurting the maritime industry and water-oriented tourism 66 21 11 2Budget constraints limiting the ability of county government to provide services 43 28 19 10An over-dependency on government employment 43 27 22 9Air pollution causing illnesses 39 26 32 3Changes in the quality of county schools 39 26 19 16Rising sea levels threatening low lying areas with flooding

31 33 27 9

21

Issue Support Oppose Unsure

Imposing an additional fine of up to $1500 on drivers caught drunk driving 86 13 1

Permitting the use of off-shore wind power near Ocean City 80 10 10Increasing the alcohol tax 68 29 3Permitting the purchase of marijuana for medical purposes 65 29 7Taking away drivers’ licenses from those who refuse to pay taxes 64 32 3Increasing the use of cameras to ticket those running red lights 59 41 4

Making same sex marriages legal in Maryland 47 46 7Making preparations to implement President Obama’s health care reform law 43 50 8

Limiting the use of binding arbitration when the county negotiates with public safety unions 35 42 23

Allowing the children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition for college 33 63 4Increasing university tuition to maintain the quality of higher education 32 66 2Reducing the pension and retiree health benefits of state workers 28 65 7

Promising state workers no furlough days, and providing them with a $750 bonus 25 59 16

Increasing the county income tax to the maximum allowed by law to avoid cuts in essential services 25 68 7

Increasing the gasoline tax to bolster the transportation trust fund 17 80 3

State and County Issues Spring 2011