The Prophet and The Pessimist:Narrating the Future of Energy Transitions in the

19th Century and Today

Prof. Peter A. ShulmanCase Western Reserve UniversityBoston University Pardee Center

Sawyer Seminar on Energy, Society, and Culture

Ray Bradbury’s

“The Toynbee Convector,”originally published

1984

U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

Shell Energy Scenarios

NASA GISS Climate Models

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1: The Technological Fix

Chevrolet Ad, 2008

“Progress: It Starts with More Models Than Anyone”

The Prophet: John Adolphus Etzler

2: National Perspectives – Energy Independence

“… “… set as our national goal, in the spirit of Apollo and set as our national goal, in the spirit of Apollo and with the determination of the Manhattan Project, that with the determination of the Manhattan Project, that by the end of this decade, we will have developed the by the end of this decade, we will have developed the

potential to meet our own energy needs without potential to meet our own energy needs without depending on any foreign energy sources.”depending on any foreign energy sources.”

Speech announcingSpeech announcingProject Independence,Project Independence,November 7, 1973November 7, 1973

“If President Bush is looking for a similar legacy project [to Kennedy’s mission to the moon], there is one just crying out—a national science initiative that would be our generation’s moon shot: a crash program for alternative energy and conservation to make America energy-independent in ten years. If President Bush made energy independence his moon shot, in one fell swoop he would dry up revenue for terrorism, force Iran, Russia, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia onto the path of reform—which they will never do with $60-a-barrel oil—strengthen the dollar, and improve his own standing in Europe by doing something huge to reduce global warming.”

NYT Columnist Thomas Friedman,The World is Flat (2006 ed.)

The Pessimist: William Stanley Jevons