Production systems for the future: balancing trade-offs between food production,

efficiency, livelihoods and the environment

M. Herrero and P.K. Thornton

WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation

21st September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi

The production and consumption of livestock products in developing countries:

Issues facing the world's poor

Nancy Johnson, Jimmy Smith, Mario Herrero, Shirley Tarawali, Susan MacMillan, Delia Grace

Farm Animal Integrated Research 2012 ConferenceWashington DC, March 4–6, 2012

Overview

Global poverty and undernutrition Consumption and production of livestock

products: – trends – drivers – future projections

Challenges aheadOpportunities for the poor

Main messages The rising demand for livestock products in

developing countries presents significant opportunities and threats

Choices about how to manage the global livestock sector have to be context specific.

Institutional innovation as important as technological innovation in charting the best ways forward.

Poverty and undernutrition

Changes in global poverty indicators

% of population living on less than $1.25/day– 1990 - 41.7%– 2005 - 25.2%

Millions of people living on less than $1.25/day – 1990 - 1,818 – 2005 - 1,374

http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/

Percent of population living on less than US$1.25/day - 1990

Dark red: >80Red: 60-80Orange: 40-60Light orange: 20-40Yellow: <20Grey: no data

http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/

Dark red: >80Red: 60-80Orange: 40-60Light orange: 20-40Yellow: <20Grey: no data

Percent of population living on less than US$1.25/day - 2000

http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/

Dark red: >80Red: 60-80Orange: 40-60Light orange: 20-40Yellow: <20Grey: no data

Percent of population living on less than US$1.25/day - 2010

http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/

FAO: SOFA2011

FAO: SOFA20011

ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward

Consumption and production of livestock products in developing countries

ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward

Consumption and production of livestock products in developing countries

Trends

FAO: SOFA2009

FAO: SOFA 2009

In 1980, 65% of production was in developed countries. In 2007, 61% was in developing countries

Agricultural production by system

9%

15%

19%

7%

50%

Beef

28%

18%21%

5%

28%

Lambagro-pastoral

mixed extensive

mixed intensive

other

developed countries

7%

13%

17%

4%

59%

Milk

Herrero et al. 2009

4%14%

35%

2%

45%

Cereals

FAO: SOFA 2009

Growing trade in livestock commodities

ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward

Consumption and production of livestock products in developing countries

Drivers

Population growth by region: 1750 - 2050

FAO: SOFA 2009

Urbanization

Source: Economist

ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward

Consumption and production of livestock products in developing countries

Future projections

Projected global consumption in 2050

Annual per capita consumption

Total consumption

Year Meat (kg)

Milk (kg)

Meat (Mt)

Milk (Mt)

Developing 20022050

2844

4478

137326

222585

Developed 20022050

7894

202216

102126

265295

Source: Rosegrant et al 2009

Projected global consumption in 2050

Annual per capita consumption

Total consumption

Year Meat (kg)

Milk (kg)

Meat (Mt)

Milk (Mt)

Developing 20022050

2844

4478

137326

222585

Developed 20022050

7894

202216

102126

265295

Source: Rosegrant et al 2009

Projected global consumption in 2050

Annual per capita consumption

Total consumption

Year Meat (kg)

Milk (kg)

Meat (Mt)

Milk (Mt)

Developing 20022050

2844

4478

137326

222585

Developed 20022050

7894

202216

102126

265295

Source: Rosegrant et al 2009

The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009)

Grains1048 million tonnes

more to 2050

Livestock430 million MT(Monogastrics mostly)

biofuels160 million MT

Humanconsumption

458 million MT

Annual changes in Cereal Production2000 - 2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total

%

AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries

Herrero et al 2009

Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total

%

AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries

Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030

0123456789

CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total

%

AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries

28

Challenges ahead

29

Challenges ahead

Disease

Livestock and human disease

15 key zoonotic diseases reported on HealthMap (2006-2011) (Grace et al., 2011)

Animal source foods are the biggest contributor to food-borne disease

Diseases transmitted from livestock & by livestock products kill more people each year than HIV or malaria

One new human disease emerges every 2 months - 20% of these from livestock (Jones et al., 2008)

Livestock and animal disease Animal disease can be the key constraint (ECF,

tryps, Newcastle disease) – Remove it and animal populations double

Increasingly animal disease impacts are outside the livestock sector

Early-stage intensification associated with increased disease – Most of current growth in animal production is in

early stage

32

Challenges ahead

Environment

Use and impact of livestock production on land, water, biodiversity

Livestock production generates many negative externalities

Significant opportunities to increase efficiency in many systems—more production with fewer animals

Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein produced

Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)

Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Effect of climate change on livestock production

Courtesy of A. Jarvis

36

Challenges ahead

Social issues

37

OverconsumptionAnimal welfareGender and equity,

especially in the face of rapid change

Conflict and transition to non-agricultural livelihoods

Emerging concerns in developing countries

Opportunities for the poor

Livestock demand will be met by a variety of sectors and systems

Currently a significant role for smallholders (30% of milk, 15-18% of poultry)

Highest potential in local and regional markets in developing countries

Strengthening livestock value chains

Enabling public policy and institutions

Access to input and output markets

Uptake of new improved technology

Public and private partnerships

Attention to gender and equity

Inputs & Services

Production

Processing Marketing Consumers

CGIAR Research Program 3.7: More meat, milk and fish by and for the poor

PIGS

AQUACULTURE

SHEEP & GOATS

DAIRY

9 Target Value Chains

Managing risk and providing environmental services in rangelands

Potential for carbonsequestration in rangelands(Conant and Paustian 2002)

Largest land use system High levels of poverty

and food insecurity Managing risk through

livestock insurance Exploring feasibility of

environmental service schemes around wildlife conservation and/or carbon sequestration

Some conclusions

The rising demand for livestock foods in poor countries presents– Opportunities

• Pathway out of poverty and malnutrition• Less vulnerability in drylands• Sustainable mixed systems

– Threats• Environmental degradation at local and global

scales• Greater risk of disease and poor health• Greater risk of conflict and inequity

Key issues for decision makers– appreciation of the vast divide in livestock

production between rich and poor countries– intimate understanding of the specific local context

for specific livestock value chains– reliable evidence-based assessments of the hard

trade-offs involved in adopting any given approach to livestock development

Institutional innovations as important as technological/biological innovations in charting the best ways forward– Organization within the sector– Managing trade offs at multiple scales