The Precourt Institutefor Energy Efficiency: An Overview

Presentation at:Global Technology Strategy Project

Technical ReviewMay 28, 2008

Presentation by:James Sweeney/John Weyant

Precourt Institute for Energy EfficiencyDepartment of Management Science and Engineering

Stanford University

Precourt Institute• A research and analysis institute at Stanford• Established in October 2006• Initial funding: $30 million pledge by Jay Precourt• Mission

– To improve opportunities for and implementation of energy efficient technologies, systems, and practices, with an emphasis on economically attractive deployment

– Focus on the demand side of energy markets– Energy efficiency: economically efficient reductions

in energy use (or energy intensity)

Advisory Council• George Shultz, Council Chair, Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford

Distinguished Fellow: Hoover Institution • Jay Precourt, Council Vice Chair, Chair and CEO, Hermes Consolidated• John Boesel, President and CEO: WestStart-CALSTART • Joseph Desmond, Former Chair, California Energy Commission• TJ Glauthier, TJG Energy Associates, LLC • Agatha Precourt, Consumer Marketing/Brand Management Consultant • Debra Reed, President and Chief Executive Officer, San Diego Gas &

Electric and Southern California Gas Co. • Burton Richter, Director Emeritus, Stanford Linear Accelerator Center;

Nobel Laureate, Physics • Ben Schwegler, Vice President / Chief Scientist: Walt Disney

Imagineering • Byron Sher, Former California State Senator • Erik Straser, Partner: Mohr, Davidow Ventures • Bill Valentine, Chairman of the Board: HOK • Ward Woods, Retired President and CEO of Bessemer Securities• Jane Woodward, CEO: Mineral Acquisition Partners

Research Clusters• Buildings:

– Commercial and residential building design, construction, operations, and embedded technologies, including building energy models and other design tools

• Transportation/Vehicles: – Technology and regulation of passenger cars and light duty

trucks; transportation systems analysis; vehicle electrification• Systems:

– Systems analysis, such as micro-grid/utility/home generation linkages, electricity storage/home generation/usage/real time metering tradeoffs, grid/vehicle/home electricity interactions, transport/generation/usage location choices

• Behavior: – Behavioral research, analysis, and intervention

• Modeling: – Economic modeling of the energy system, institutions, and

economic impacts, including process modeling of use • Policy:

– Policy design, policy analysis, individual faculty advocacy; pricing policies, policy interventions, R&D policy

U.S. Energy Consumption, 2005

40

23 23

8

3 30.4 0.06 0.15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

PetroleumProducts

Coal Natural Gas NuclearElectricPower

HydroelectricPower

Biomass GeothermalEnergy

Solar Energy Wind Energy

Qua

drill

ion

Btu

U.S. Energy Usage: 2005

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Review

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Qua

drill

ion

Btu

Through Electricity: Res, Ind, CommPrimary: Res, Ind, CommTransportation: Primary

US Primary Energy and Electricity Use by Sectors

Energy Efficiency:

Economically Efficient Reductions in Energy Use

Intensity

• Environmental Protection• Global Climate Change

• Security• Oil/International vulnerability• Vulnerability of infrastructure to terrorism,

natural disaster, or human error• Economics

• Prices of electricity, gasoline, natural gas• Price volatility: oil, natural gas, wholesale

electricity• Improved corporate profit, household budgets

Policy Drivers for Energy Efficiency

Increased EconomicEfficiency

Decreased Energy Use

Reduced EconomicEfficiency

Increased Energy Use

Economically Efficient Energy Intensification

Energy Efficiency Improvement

Inefficient Energy Saving

Waste

Increased EconomicEfficiency

Decreased Energy Use

Increased commercial space

Gasoline Price Controls

Compact Fluorescent Penetration

LED Traffic Lights

Energy Cost Labeling

Gasoline Rationing

Incan-descent Lighting

Congestion Pricing

Personal Computer Penetration

Optimized Building Construction

Overly Strict Building Standards

PigouvianEnergy Tax

Increased EconomicEfficiency

Decreased Energy Use“Smart”Regional Land Development

Reformed CAFE Standards

Many Rapid Transit Systems

Efficient AC-DC Converters

Halt SUV Sales

Airline Deregulation

Energy Audits

Hybrid Gas-Electric Vehicles

High Definition TV

Plug-In Hybrids (Now)

Plug-In Hybrids (Future)

LED General Lighting (Now)

LED General Lighting (Future)

Internet Growth

“Smart Buildings”Controls

Economic development

LED Task Lighting (Now)

Accessible Business Travel

Old appliance replacement

Behavioral Change:Program Thermostat,Lights, Tire pressure,

Driving Patterns

Appliance Efficiency Standards

Energy Efficient Buildings Research Projects Team Title

John Haymaker; RA: Caroline Clevenger 

Importance Process: Improving Energy Efficient AEC Decision Making Through Statistical, Model‐Based, Search of Multidisciplinary Impacts

Andrea Goldsmith, Stephen Boyd, Hamid Aghajan; RA: Itai Katz 

Wireless Sensor Networks Technology for Smart Buildings

Martin Fischer, Vladimir Bazjanac (BNL); RA: Tobias Maile

Conditions for Comparison of Predicted and Measured Operational Performance of HVAC Systems

John Haymaker; RA: Benjamin Welle

Process Integration and Design Optimization in Support of Energy Efficient, High Performance Building Design

Bob Tatum; RA: Brian Gilligan 

Increasing the Effectiveness of Investigation, Definition, and Execution of Retrofit Projects to Increase Building Energy Efficiency

Sarah Billington, Curtis Frank

Energy Efficient Biodegradable Foams for Structural Insulated Panels

Research Projects Now Underway

Research Projects Now Underway

Energy Efficient Behavior Research Projects 

Team Title

Carrie Armel;  RAs: Adam Bad Wound, Benjamin Dudek

Behavior and Decision‐Making Research Related to Energy Efficiency and Climate Change

Research Projects Now UnderwayEnergy Policy Research Projects 

Team TitleFrank Wolak; RA: Shaun McRae 

Designing Mechanisms to Involve Financial Demand in Wholesale Electricity Markets

Lawrence Goulder; RA: Ring Zhou 

Analysis of US Policies to Improve Automobile Fuel‐Economy and Reduce Gasoline Consumption and Analysis of US Policies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Jim Sweeney, John WeyantRAs: Raghu Naga, Tien‐TienChan,  Amul Sathe, Kenneth Gillingham, Amy Guy, Arianna Lambie, Anant Sudarshan

Contributing to CARB's AB 32 Cost‐Effectiveness Determination

PI: Jim SweeneyRA: Amy Guy 

Analyzing Risk and Return Including Energy Efficiency and Other Enabling Technologies in Clean Tech Investment Portfolios

Research Projects Now Underway

Energy Efficient Systems Research Projects Team Title

Christopher Edwards; RA: A.P. Simpson 

Development of a Thermodynamically Based Method of Incorporating Environmental Impact in Decision Making for Energy

Mark Jacobson, Cristina Archer;  RAs: Mike Dvorak, Elaine Hart, Gerard Ketefian

Analyzing and Optimizing Supply and Demand of Intermittent Renewable Electricity through Transmission Load Flow Modeling

Research Projects Now UnderwayEnergy Modeling Research Projects 

Team TitleJim Sweeney; RA: PedramMokrian

Energy Economics and Policy, Stochastic Modeling of Electric Systems

Jim Sweeney; RA: Jiyong Eom Incentives and Politics of Utility‐Based Energy Efficiency Programs in California

Jim Sweeney; RA: Brad Powley Projecting LED Competitiveness

Jim Sweeney; RA: AnantSudarshan

Deconstructing the Rosenfeld Curve

Workshops/ConferencesCompleted• 2007 Energy Summit, June 2007. Jointly with Silicon Valley

Leadership Group• Behavior, Energy, and Climate Change. Jointly with ACEEE,

California Institute for Energy and Environment , November 2007• Energy Crossroads. (Stanford Student-Organized Event, partial

support). Spring 2007; Spring 2008• Energy Efficiency Workshop, with Snowmass Workshop on

Integrated Assessment of Global Climate Change, July 2007Future• Behavior, Energy, and Climate Change. Jointly with ACEEE,

California Institute for Energy and Environment, November 16-19 2008• Energy Summit. Jointly with Silicon Valley Leadership Group, July

11, 2008

Convening Organizations•American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy•California Institute for Energy and Environment, University of California •Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency, Stanford University

Behavior, Energy, and Climate Change Conference

National conference focused on understanding behavior and decision-making of individuals and organizations and using that knowledge to help accelerate our transition to an energy-efficient and low-carbon economy.

November 16 – 19 , 2008. Hyatt Hotel, Sacramento, CA

More information: PIEE.Stanford.edu

Example:Lighting as Share of U.S. Electricity

• Lighting use– About 800 Terawatt hours (1012) per year

• Electricity Generation– 3815 Terawatt hours per year

• Lighting is 21% of all electricity use

Residential 900 Lumen Lighting 20 year Lifecycle Cost (Now)

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

Incand CFL LED

Cost of CapitalCost of MaintenanceElectricity Cost

Commercial 900 Lumen Lighting 20 year Lifecycle Cost (Now)

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

Incand CFL LED

Cost of CapitalCost of MaintenanceElectricity Cost

Energy Implications of 100% LEDs@ 120 Lm/wt System Efficacy

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Commercial Residential Industrial Outdoor

TWhr

/yr

Current MixAll LED @ 120 lm/wt

Economy-Wide Impacts of All LED• Lighting use: 21% of all electricity use

– All LED saves about 60% of this electricity in long run:• 13% of all electricity use – after all adjustments

– Adjustment time:• How long until LED system efficacy reaches 120

lm/wt? 5 years? • 50% adoption: 15 years afterwards?

– 50% adoption will save 6.5% of all electricity use• Electricity impact: Perhaps 6.5% reduction in 20 years• Electricity cost impact

– Total cost of U.S. electricity• Retail: $300 Billion per year• Variable Costs: say $200 Billion per year

– 6.5% of $300 Billion dollars = $20 Billion per year– 6.5% of $200 Billion dollars = $13 Billion per year

The Rosenfeld Effect Project

Rosenfeld Curve Decomposition

=Approx. 23% of the Gap

The AB 32 ProjectCO2 Reduction Supply Curve

00 50 100

150

200

Fuel

eco

nom

y - h

eavy

truc

ksC

ellu

losi

c bi

ofue

lsLa

ndfil

l Met

hane

Cap

ture

Win

d

Sm

art C

omm

uniti

es P

rogr

am

Ene

rgy

Effi

cien

cy T

otal

Fly

Ash

for C

emen

tE

mer

ging

EE

Fuel

eco

nom

y - c

ars

Fuel

eco

nom

y - l

ight

truc

ks

Rec

over

y &

Des

truct

ion

Non

CO

2 ga

ses

Indu

stria

l CH

P

Indu

stria

l Car

bon

Cap

ture

& S

tora

ge

Fuel

s m

anag

emen

t/ bi

omas

sC

emen

t Pro

duct

ion

Fuel

Sw

itchi

ng

Coa

l Pla

nts

with

CC

S

Con

serv

atio

n til

lage

CH

P R

es a

nd C

omm

erci

alR

ecyc

ling-

Com

post

ing

Bio

Sol

ar T

herm

al

Ligh

t dut

y pl

ug-in

hyb

rids

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

Total CO2 Reductions (Million Metric Tons CO2 Equivalent)

US$

per

Ton

CO

2e

Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency

http://piee.stanford.edu

The End