The Population-Poverty Nexus
Transcript of The Population-Poverty Nexus
The
Popu
latio
n-Po
vert
y N
exus
The
Phili
ppin
es in
Com
para
tive
East
Asi
an C
onte
xt
Ars
enio
M. B
alis
acan
Dire
ctor
, SEA
RCA
Prof
esso
r, U
P Sc
hool
of
Econ
omic
s
Man
ila P
enin
sula
Hot
el, M
akat
iCity
10 A
ugus
t 200
4
Pres
ente
d at
the
Book
Lau
nch
cum
Le
ctur
e of
�Th
e Ti
es T
hat
Bin
d:
Pop
ula
tion
an
d D
evel
opm
ent
in t
he
Ph
ilip
pin
es�
Bas
ed o
n th
e St
udy
The
Popu
latio
n-Ec
onom
y-Po
verty
Lin
ks: A
Q
uant
itativ
e A
sses
smen
t
by
Ars
enio
Bal
isac
an, D
enni
s Map
a,
and
Cha
risse
Tub
iano
sa
in a
ssoc
iatio
n w
ithLe
onar
do L
anzo
naR
osem
arie
Edi
llon
Fina
l Rep
ort p
repa
red
for t
he P
hilip
pine
Cen
terf
or P
opul
atio
n an
d D
evel
opm
ent,
2003
Com
paris
on o
f key
eco
nom
ic in
dica
tors
of
sele
cted
Asi
an c
ount
ries
The
popu
latio
n de
bate
and
the
dem
ogra
phic
tr
ansi
tion
Stud
ies
on th
e po
pula
tion-
econ
omy-
pove
rty
nexu
sEs
timat
es fr
om th
e ec
onom
etric
mod
elSi
mul
atio
n re
sults
Con
clus
ions
Org
aniz
atio
n
The
Phili
ppin
es in
Eas
t Asi
a� G
DP
per c
apita
19
50
-
2,0
00
4,0
00
6,0
00
8,0
00
10
,00
0
12
,00
0
USA Si
ngap
ore Ho
ng K
ong
Japa
nM
alay
sia PH
ILIP
PINE
STa
iwan
Kore
a Indo
nesi
aTh
ailan
d
Chin
a
19
75
-2,0
00
4,0
00
6,0
00
8,0
00
10,0
00
12,0
00
14,0
00
16,0
00
18,0
00
20,0
00
USA
Japa
n Hong
Kon
g Sing
apor
eTa
iwan
Mala
ysia
Kore
a PHIL
IPPI
NES
Thail
and In
done
sia
Chin
a
20
00
-5
,00
01
0,0
00
15
,00
02
0,0
00
25
,00
03
0,0
00
35
,00
0
USA Ho
ng K
ong Si
ngap
ore
Japa
nTa
iwan
Kore
aM
alays
iaTh
aila
nd
Chin
a PHIL
IPPI
NES In
done
sia
Pove
rty
redu
ctio
n in
Eas
t Asi
a
0102030405060
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
% Poor
Chin
aIn
done
sia
Thai
land
Philip
pine
sV
ietn
am
No
te: P
ove
rty
esti
ma
tes
ba
sed
on
a p
ove
rty
lin
e o
f U
S$1
/da
y p
er
per
son
.
% p
oor
GD
P &
Pop
ulat
ion
Gro
wth
Rat
es fo
r Sel
ect
Cou
ntrie
s, %
per
yea
r
4.1
2.36
8.0
1.87
8.8
1.58
9.9
1.20
0246810
Phili
ppin
esIn
done
siaTh
aila
ndK
orea
, Rep
.
Per c
apita
GDP
gro
wth,
197
5-20
00Po
pula
tion
grow
th ra
te
Popu
latio
n G
row
th R
ates
: Tha
iland
vs
Phili
ppin
es
0
0.51
1.52
2.53
3.5
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Phi
lippi
nes
Thai
Com
paris
on o
f Key
Indi
cato
rs
3.6
3.0
Elde
rly P
opul
atio
n G
row
th
-0.3
1.7
Yout
h Po
pula
tion
Gro
wth
2.5
2.8
Wor
kers
Pop
ulat
ion
Gro
wth
1.6
2.4
Tota
l Pop
ulat
ion
Gro
wth
Thai
land
Phili
ppin
es
Inco
me
per P
erso
n: T
haila
nd v
sPh
ilipp
ines
(in
US$
PPP
)
0
1,00
0
2,00
0
3,00
0
4,00
0
5,00
0
6,00
0
7,00
0
8,00
0 1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
PHIL
- Act
ual
THA
I
Dyn
amic
and
con
tent
ious
Con
sequ
ence
s of
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th o
n ec
onom
ic d
evel
opm
ent
Doe
s po
pula
tion
grow
th c
urta
il or
pro
mot
e ec
onom
ic g
row
th?
Or i
s it
inde
pend
ent f
rom
ec
onom
ic g
row
th?
The
Popu
latio
n D
ebat
e
In th
e 19
90s,
the
popu
latio
n de
bate
shi
fted
from
the
issu
e of
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th to
the
age
stru
ctur
e of
the
popu
latio
n.
Indi
vidu
als
have
var
ied
econ
omic
beh
avio
rs a
t diff
eren
t st
ages
in li
fe.
The
youn
g re
quire
inte
nsiv
e in
vest
men
t in
heal
th a
nd
educ
atio
n, p
rime-
age
adul
ts s
uppl
y la
bor a
nd s
avin
gs,
the
aged
requ
ire h
ealth
car
e an
d re
tirem
ent i
ncom
e.
The
natio
n�s
age
stru
ctur
e ha
s an
impo
rtant
impa
ct o
n its
eco
nom
ic p
erfo
rman
ce.
The
Popu
latio
n D
ebat
e
Dem
ogra
phic
Tra
nsiti
on
�� is
a c
hang
e fro
m a
situ
atio
n of
hig
h fe
rtilit
y an
d hi
gh m
orta
lity
to o
ne o
f low
fe
rtilit
y an
d lo
w m
orta
lity.
�
Popu
latio
ngr
owth
rate
time
deat
h ra
te
Birt
h ra
te
The
Dem
ogra
phic
Tra
nsiti
on
Phas
es o
f the
Dem
ogra
phic
Tra
nsiti
on
Phas
e 1.
Trig
gere
d by
initi
al d
eclin
e in
infa
nt m
orta
lity,
th
e yo
uth
depe
nden
cy g
roup
sw
ells
.
Male
Fem
ale
Phas
e 2.
Econ
omic
gro
wth
pro
mot
ed a
bout
20
year
s la
ter
whe
n th
e yo
uth
ente
rs t
he w
orki
ng
age
grou
p. Male
Fem
ale
Male
Fem
ale
Phas
e 3.
Econ
omic
gro
wth
may
or
may
not
be
impe
ded
as th
e el
derly
coh
ort s
wel
ls. I
t app
ears
th
at a
ris
ing
elde
rly s
hare
doe
s no
t de
pres
s no
r el
evat
e th
e ra
te o
f eco
nom
ic g
row
th.
Mal
eFe
mal
e
Mal
eFe
mal
e
Mal
eFe
mal
e
Phas
e 1
-Phi
lippi
nes
Phas
e 2
-Tha
iland
Phas
e 3
�Ja
pan
Find
ings
from
Ear
lier S
tudi
es
Dem
ogra
phic
cha
nges
follo
win
g W
orld
War
II w
orke
d in
fa
vor o
f mor
e ra
pid
grow
th in
Eas
t Asi
an c
ount
ries.
1
Abou
t one
-third
of E
ast A
sia�
s ec
onom
ic g
row
th is
at
trib
utab
le to
dem
ogra
phic
influ
ence
s.2
Had
all
coun
trie
s re
duce
d ne
t fer
tility
by
five
birt
hs p
er
thou
sand
wom
en in
the
1980
s, th
e po
vert
y in
cide
nce
wou
ld
have
bee
n re
duce
d by
a th
ird, f
rom
18.
9 pe
rcen
t (on
e in
ev
ery
five)
to 1
2.6
perc
ent (
one
in e
very
eig
ht).3
1Sa
chs
et. a
l. (1
997)
, Eco
nom
ic G
row
th in
Asi
a (1
965-
1990
).2
Bloo
m a
nd W
illiam
son
(199
7) a
nd B
loom
, Can
ning
and
Mal
aney
(199
8) o
n P
opul
atio
n D
ynam
ics
and
Econ
omic
Gro
wth
in A
sia
(196
5-19
90).
3Ea
stw
ood
and
Lipt
on (2
000)
.
The
Cro
ss-C
ount
ry E
cono
met
ric M
odel
Inve
stig
ated
the
rela
tions
hip
betw
een
popu
latio
n gr
owth
and
the
dem
ogra
phic
tran
sitio
n, o
n th
e on
e ha
nd, a
nd e
cono
mic
gro
wth
and
pov
erty
, on
the
othe
r, us
ing
cros
s-co
untry
dat
a fro
m 1
975
to 2
000
and
Philip
pine
pro
vinc
ial p
anel
dat
a fr
om 1
985
to
2000
.
Sim
ulat
ion
tech
niqu
es w
ere
used
to q
uant
ify th
e co
ntrib
utio
n of
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th to
the
obse
rved
di
ffere
nce
betw
een
the
Philip
pine
s� G
DP
per p
erso
n an
d Th
aila
nd�s
.
The
data
set
con
sist
ed o
f 80
deve
lope
d an
d de
velo
ping
eco
nom
ies.
The
Econ
omet
ric M
odel
Pove
rty
Red
uctio
n
�exp
ansi
on
of th
e pi
e�
(Gro
wth
C
hann
el) �d
ivis
ion
of th
e pi
e�
(Red
istr
ibut
ion
Cha
nnel
)
Popu
latio
n G
row
th�
Wor
kers
�Yo
uth
�O
ld
Det
erm
inan
ts o
f G
row
th�
Educ
atio
n�
Hea
lth�
Econ
omic
cl
imat
e/O
penn
ess
�Sa
ving
�In
itial
Con
ditio
ns�
Inst
itutio
ns
Inco
me
Gro
wth
Dire
ct
Effe
ct
Exte
rnal
ities
Dire
ct
Effe
ct
Rev
erse
C
ausa
lity
Rev
erse
C
ausa
lity
Con
trib
utio
n of
Pop
ulat
ion
Dyn
amic
s to
Ec
onom
ic G
row
th
C
ount
ry
Av
erag
e G
row
th
(GD
P pe
r per
son,
%)
N
et C
ontri
butio
n of
Pop
ulat
ion
(%)
Philip
pine
s 4.
10
1.06
Thai
land
8.
84
1.83
Indo
nesi
a 7.
98
1.27
Sout
h Ko
rea
9.90
1.
66
Not
e: E
stim
ates
of G
DP
per p
erso
n ar
e in
pur
chas
ing
pow
er p
arity
(PPP
).
Som
e H
ighl
ight
s of
the
Stud
y
Tota
l Pop
ulat
ion
Gro
wth
Rat
e ha
s a
nega
tive
and
sign
ifica
nt im
pact
on
econ
omic
gro
wth
.
Wor
kers
� Pop
ulat
ion
Gro
wth
has
a p
ositi
ve a
nd
sign
ifica
nt im
pact
on
econ
omic
gro
wth
.
Aver
age
Life
Exp
ecta
ncy
at B
irth
(a p
roxy
for h
ealth
) ha
s a
posi
tive
and
sign
ifica
nt im
pact
on
econ
omic
gr
owth
.
Ope
nnes
s to
trad
e ha
s a
posi
tive
and
sign
ifica
nt
impa
ct o
n ec
onom
ic g
row
th.
Qua
lity
of P
ublic
Inst
itutio
ns h
as a
pos
itive
and
si
gnifi
cant
impa
ct o
n ec
onom
ic g
row
th.
Why
the
Phili
ppin
es G
rew
Slo
w�
Tota
l Gro
wth
Diff
eren
tial
Actu
al G
DP
per c
apita
gro
wth
Varia
ble
Phili
ppin
esTh
aila
ndFo
rego
ne
Gro
wth
(%)
Initi
al C
ondi
tions
1.
072
GD
P pe
r per
son,
197
515
0280
5R
atio
of W
orke
rs to
Tot
al P
opul
atio
n53
.76
52.1
2
Popu
latio
n G
row
th0.
768
Tota
l2.
361.
58W
orke
rs
2.85
2.53
OPE
NN
ESS
64.3
067
.96
0.02
8 SA
VIN
G R
ATE
22.0
328
.02
0.20
6 H
uman
Cap
ital I
:Av
erag
e LE
B (1
976
�20
00)
64.3
966
.11
0.07
2 H
uman
Cap
ital I
I:Ill
itera
cy R
ate
(Ave
rage
, 197
6 -2
000)
7.93
5.58
0.11
6
INST
ITU
TIO
N2.
976.
260.
574
TRO
PIC
11
0.00
0
(Acc
ount
ed b
y M
odel
)2.
836
(ave
rage
in p
erce
nt, 1
975-
2000
)4.
100
8.84
04.
740
Wha
t if t
he P
hilip
pine
s fo
llow
ed
Thai
land
�s P
opul
atio
n G
row
th
Path
from
197
5 to
200
0?
Wha
t is
the
Impa
ct o
n Ec
onom
ic G
row
th?
Addi
tiona
l inc
reas
e of
at l
east
0.7
6% p
er y
ear,
for
the
perio
d 19
75 t
o 20
00,
on t
he a
vera
ge
inco
me
per p
erso
n
Cum
ulat
ive
incr
ease
of
ab
out
22%
on
th
e av
erag
e in
com
e pe
r per
son
in th
e ye
ar 2
000
Incr
ease
on
the
aver
age
inco
me
per p
erso
n in
th
e ye
ar 2
000
to U
S$ 4
,839
.00
from
US$
3,
971.
00 (i
n PP
P)
Actu
al a
nd S
imul
ated
Inco
me
per P
erso
n
0
1,00
0
2,00
0
3,00
0
4,00
0
5,00
0
6,00
0
7,00
0
8,00
0 1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
PH
IL-
Act
ual
PH
IL S
IMT
HA
I
Wha
t is
the
Impa
ct o
n Po
vert
y?
If th
e Ph
ilippi
nes h
ad
Tha
iland
�s
pop
ula
tion
grow
th:
Pove
rty in
cid
ence
wou
ld h
ave
been
5.
5 p
erce
nta
ge p
oint
s les
s
Mor
e pe
ople
wou
ld h
ave
been
b
roug
ht o
ut o
f pov
erty
, ab
out 3
.6
milli
on m
ore
Exte
ndin
g th
e Si
mul
atio
n to
Foc
us
on R
ural
Are
as�
Why
rura
l are
as?
!2
of e
very
3 p
oor p
erso
ns a
re lo
cate
d in
rura
l ar
eas;
dep
ende
nt m
ainl
y on
agr
icul
ture
for
inco
mes
.!
Even
urb
an p
over
ty is
larg
ely
spill
over
effe
cts
of ru
ral p
over
ty.
Savi
ngs
from
pro
visi
on o
f bas
ic e
duca
tion
and
heal
th s
ervi
ces
beca
use
of s
low
er p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
rate
s
Thes
e sa
ving
s w
ill b
e ch
anne
led
to th
e ru
ral
sect
or, p
artic
ular
ly a
gric
ultu
re
Slow
er P
opul
atio
n G
row
th in
the
R
ural
Are
as�
Incr
ease
in
pare
ntal
in
com
es
from
in
crea
ses
in
prod
uctiv
ityO
ther
fa
ctor
s
Slow
er
popu
latio
ngr
owth
savi
ngs
from
publ
ic
educ
atio
n
and
heal
th
Rur
al
inve
stm
ent
(Agr
iR&
D,
Irrig
atio
n,
Etc)
Pove
rty
Red
uctio
n
Pote
ntia
l sav
ings
Estim
ated
sav
ings
from
bas
ic e
duca
tion:
Php
128
billi
on o
ver a
per
iod
of 1
0 ye
ars
Estim
ated
sav
ings
from
bas
ic h
ealth
:Ph
p52
bill
ion
Very
con
serv
ativ
e es
timat
es
Pove
rty
Inci
denc
e in
the
Agri
Sect
or
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Yea
r 0Y
ear 1
Yea
r 2Y
ear 3
Yea
r 4Y
ear 5
Base
Sce
nario
: Sta
tus
quo
Sim
ulat
ed S
cena
rio 2
: ass
umes
a d
eclin
e in
pop
ulat
ion
and
an in
crea
se in
agr
icul
tura
l sec
tor i
nves
tmen
ts
Rur
al p
over
ty
inci
denc
e is
si
gnifi
cant
ly
redu
ced!
Pove
rty
inci
denc
e in
the
agri
sect
or
Sour
ces
of F
utur
e Po
pula
tion
grow
th
Unw
ante
d fe
rtili
ty (1
6%)
Wan
ted
fert
ility
(19%
)
Popu
latio
n m
omen
tum
(6
5%)
RES
PON
SE�
Fam
ily p
lann
ing
prog
ram
�C
reat
e so
cio-
econ
omic
con
ditio
ns
that
favo
r sm
alle
r fa
milie
s
�R
aisi
ng a
ge a
t firs
t bi
rth
�D
elay
ed a
ge a
t m
arria
ge
Popu
latio
n G
row
th
In c
oncl
usio
n�
Popu
latio
n gr
owth
mat
ters
in th
e ec
onom
ic p
erfo
rman
ce
and
pove
rty o
f nat
ions
.
!Ec
onom
ic g
row
th w
ould
hav
e be
en m
uch
fast
er a
nd p
over
ty
redu
ctio
n qu
icke
r if t
he P
hilip
pine
s ha
d Th
aila
nd�s
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th p
ath.
Hig
h po
pula
tion
grow
th is
not
the
sole
cul
prit
to th
e di
smal
pe
rform
ance
of t
he P
hilip
pine
eco
nom
y du
ring
the
last
25
year
s, b
ut it
is a
key
fact
or.
Nee
d fo
r a c
lear
pop
ulat
ion
polic
y ba
cked
by
stro
ng
gove
rnm
ent s
uppo
rt.
Than
k yo
u