The People's Republic of China's Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves

8/13/2019 The People's Republic of China's Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves

1/28

MHJG [erig`k ^mpfr Sfrgfs

Xbf ^feplfs Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`msKrewtb, Stmjglgty, m`h Vsf eaG`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs

Oesbum Mgzf`dm`Wetbg` Ogòmrmi@m`cy ^. Dmrge`

@e. 866Omùmry :>=8

Msgm` Hfvflepdf`t Jmì G`stgtutf


2/28

Xbf [erig`k ^mpfr sfrgfs gs m ce`tgùmtge` ea tbf aerdfrly `mdfh Hgscussge` ^mpfr sfrgfs9tbf ùdjfrg`k ea tbf pmpfrs ce`tgùfh wgtbeut g`tfrruptge` er cbm`kf. MHJGs werig`kpmpfrs rfalfct g`gtgml ghfms e` m tepgc m`h mrf pestfh e`lg`f aer hgscussge`. MHJG f`ceurmkfsrfmhfrs te pest tbfgr ceddf`ts e` tbf dmg` pmkf aer fmcb werig`k pmpfr (kgvf` g` tbfcgtmtge` jflew). Sedf werig`k pmpfrs dmy hfvflep g`te etbfr aerds ea pujlgcmtge`.

Sukkfstfh cgtmtge`?

Mgzf`dm`, O., W. Ogòmrmi, m`h @. ^. Dmrge`. :>=8. Xbf ^feplfs Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`ms Krewtb,Stmjglgty, m`h Vsf ea G`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs. MHJG [erig`k ^mpfr 866. Xeiye? Msgm`Hfvflepdf`t Jmì G`stgtutf. Mvmglmjlf? bttp?//www.mhjg.erk/werig`k-pmpfr/:>=8/>=/:8/1==8.prc.krewtb.stmjglgty.g`tfr`mtge`ml.rfsfrvfs/

^lfmsf ce`tmct tbf mutbers aer gàerdmtge` mjeut tbgs pmpfr.

Fdmgl?mgzf`dm`Nusc.fhu9yogòmrmiNmhjg.erk9`m`cy.dmrge`Nhmrtdeutb.fhu

Oesbum Mgzf`dm` gs tbf Zejfrt Z. m`h Imtbfry` M. Hecise` Cbmgr g` Fceèdgcs m`hG`tfr`mtge`ml Zflmtge`s mt tbf V`gvfrsgty ea Seutbfr` Cmlgaer`gm. Wetbg` Ogòmrmi gsZfsfmrcb Afllew mt MHJG m`h Zfmhfr mt SEMS, V`gvfrsgty ea Le`he`. @m`cy Dmrge` gstbf Kferkf O. Zfcerhs =761 ^reafsser ea Fceèdgcs mt Hmrtdeutb Cellfkf.

Xbf vgfws fxprfssfh g` tbgs pmpfr mrf tbf vgfws ea tbf mutber m`h he èt `fcfssmrglyrfalfct tbf vgfws er pelgcgfs ea MHJG, tbf MHJ, gts Jemrh ea Hgrfcters, er tbf kevfr`df`tstbfy rfprfsf`t. MHJG hefs èt kumrm`tff tbf mccurmcy ea tbf hmtm g`cluhfh g` tbgs pmpfrm`h mccfpts è rfspe`sgjglgty aer m`y ce`sfquf`cfs ea tbfgr usf. Xfrdgèleky usfh dmyèt `fcfssmrgly jf ce`sgstf`t wgtb MHJ eaagcgml tfrds.

Msgm` Hfvflepdf`t Jmì G`stgtutfImsudgkmsfig Juglhg`k 2A

3-:-6 Imsudgkmsfig, Cbgyehm-iuXeiye =>>-1>>2, Ompm`

Xfl? +2=-3-3673-66>>Amx? +2=-3-3673-66;=VZL? www.mhjg.erkF-dmgl? gàeNmhjg.erk

:>=8 Msgm` Hfvflepdf`t Jmì G`stgtutf
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


3/28

MHJG [erig`k ^mpfr 866 Mgzf`dm`, Ogòmrmi, m`h Dmrge`

Mjstrmct

G` tbf ru`-up te tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs, tbf werlh fceèdy wms cbmrmctfrgzfh jy lmrkf m`hkrewg`k currf`t mcceu`t gdjmlm`cfs. Sg`cf tbf e`sft ea tbf crgsgs, tbf ^feplfs Zfpujlgc eaCbg`m m`h tbf V`gtfh Stmtfs bmvf rfjmlm`cfh. Ms m sbmrf ea kress hedfstgc prehuct, tbfgrcurrf`t mcceu`t gdjmlm`cfs mrf èw lfss tbm` bmla tbfgr prf-crgsgs lfvfls. Aer tbf ^feplfsZfpujlgc ea Cbg`m, tbf rfhuctge` g` gts currf`t mcceu`t surplus pest-crgsgs sukkfsts mstructurml cbm`kf. ^m`fl rfkrfssge`s aer m smdplf ea mldest =>> fceèdgfs evfr tbf tbgrty-yfmr pfrgeh, =723:>=3, ceàgrd tbmt tbf rflmtge`sbgp jftwff` currf`t mcceu`t jmlm`cfs m`hfceèdgc vmrgmjlfs sucb ms pfraerdm`cf, structurf, wfmltb, m`h tbf fxcbm`kf rmtf, cbm`kfhg` gdpertm`t wmys matfr tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs.

OFL Clmssgagcmtge`?A3:, E6;


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Ce`tf`ts

=. G`trehuctge` ................................................................................................................ 3:. Hmtm m`h Fstgdmtge` ................................................................................................ ==3. Jmsflg`f Zfsults m`h Zejust`fss Cbfcis ............................................................... =:8. Xbf ^feplfs Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`ms Currf`t Mcceu`t m`h G`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs ....... =26. Ce`clusge` ............................................................................................................... :=Zfafrf`cfs ......................................................................................................................... :3Mppf`hgx ............................................................................................................................. :6


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3

=. G@XZEHVCXGE@

G` :>>;:>>7, tbf V`gtfh Stmtfs (VS) amcfh m sfvfrf ag`m`cgml crgsgs tbmt rfsultfh g` tbfwerst hew`tur` g` eutput m`h fdpleydf`t sg`cf tbf Krfmt Hfprfssge`. Fceèdgsts m`hpelgcydmifrs bmvf ce`cf`trmtfh e` tryg`k te u`hfrstm`h tbf au`hmdf`tml cmusfs eatbgs crgsgs m`h bew te f`h gt. G` mhhgtge`, tbf hrmdmtgc cellmpsf g` werlh trmhf tbmt wmstrgkkfrfh jy tbf crgsgs m`h bflpfh sprfmh gt, bms lfh te `fw rfsfmrcb e` tbf lgìmkfsjftwff` ag`m`cgml hgstrfss m`h klejml trmhf alews. M tepgc tbmt bms rfcfgvfh lfssmttf`tge` gs bew Fmst[fst klejml gdjmlm`cfspmrtgculmrly tbesf ea tbf ^feplfsZfpujlgc ea Cbg`m (^ZC) m`h tbf VSbmvf cbm`kfh g` tbf matfrdmtb ea tbf ag`m`cgmlcrgsgs. Xbmt gs tbf aecus ea tbgs pmpfr.

G` tbf ru`-up te tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs, tbf werlh fceèdy wms cbmrmctfrgzfh jy fèrdeuscurrf`t mcceu`t gdjmlm`cfs. Xbf ^ZCs surplus mle`f wms >.;% ea werlh kresshedfstgc prehuct (KH^) g` :>>2, wbglf tbf VS bmh m hfagcgt ea derf tbm` =% ea werlhKH^ tbmt yfmr. Xbf currf`t mcceu`t jmlm`cfs ea tbf werlhs surplus fceèdgfs (f.k.,

tbf ^ZC, Kfrdm`y, Ompm`, m`h tbf egl fxpertg`k fceèdgfs) fxcffhfh :.6% ea klejmlKH^ g` :>>29 tbf currf`t mcceu`t jmlm`cfs ea tbf werlhs hfagcgt fceèdgfs (f.k., tbfVS, tbf è`-Msgm` fdfrkg`k dmrifts, m`h tbf fureze`f fxcluhg`k Kfrdm`y) wfrf mlsemjeut :.6% ea klejml KH^.

^rger te tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs, sedf sukkfstfh lmrkf gdjmlm`cfs ceulh jf sustmg`fh aertbf aerfsffmjlf auturf. Heelfy, Aelifrts-Lm`hmu, m`h Kmrjfr (:>>3, :>>6), aerfxmdplf, mrkufh m` Msgm` pfrgpbfry, prgdmrgly tbf ^ZC, ceulh pursuf m hfvflepdf`tstrmtfky ea fxpert-lfh krewtb suppertfh jy u`hfrvmlufh fxcbm`kf rmtfs m`h cmpgtmlce`trels aer dm`y yfmrs. Lmrkf currf`t mcceu`t surplusfs m`h eaagcgml cmpgtml eutalews g`tbf aerd ea mccudulmtfh rfsfrvf mssft clmgds e` tbf VS weulh cbmrmctfrgzf tbf Msgm`pfrgpbfry aer pfrbmps m hfcmhf er derf. Derfevfr, tbf strmtfky wms m wg` aer tbf

cf`tfr (f.k., tbf VS) ms wfll, sg`cf vgrtumlly u`lgdgtfh hfdm`h aer gts ag`m`cgml mssftsweulh mllew gt te ru` lmrkf currf`t mcceu`t hfagcgts, lgvg`k jfye`h gts dfm`s aer yfmrs.

Mt sedf peg`t, tbf Msgm` pfrgpbfry weulh krew suaagcgf`tly te krmhumtf te tbf cf`tfr. Gtweulh tbf` u`hfrtmif ag`m`cgml lgjfrmlgzmtge` m`h mhept krfmtfr fxcbm`kf-rmtf alfxgjglgty.Jut wbf` tbmt bmppf`fh, mètbfr sft ea hfvflepg`k fceèdgfs weulh stfp aerwmrh tejfcedf tbf `fw pfrgpbfry, pursug`k tbf smdf fxpert-lfh krewtb strmtfky mkmg`st tbfcf`tfr ms bmh tbf ^ZC m`h tbf Msgm` pfrgpbfry, m`h jfaerf tbfd, pest-wmr Furepf m`hOmpm`. Ms m rfsult, klejml gdjmlm`cfs, wgtb tbf pfrgpbfry ru``g`k lmrkf currf`t mcceu`tsurplusfs m`h tbf cf`tfr lmrkf currf`t mcceu`t hfagcgts, weulh jf m rfkulmr afmturf eatbf g`tfr`mtge`ml de`ftmry systfd aer yfmrs te cedf.

G` lmtfr weri, Heelfy ft ml. (:>>8) prevghfh m` mssft dmrift g`tfrprftmtge` ea tbf wg`-

wg` vgfw ea klejml gdjmlm`cfs. Xbf g`tfrprftmtge` wf`t ms aellews. VS hfagcgts supplgfhg`tfr`mtge`ml cellmtfrml te peerfr fceèdgfs e` tbf pfrgpbfry fmkfr te u`hfrtmif cmpgtmlaerdmtge`9 tbf cellmtfrml arffh tbfd ared m rflgm`cf e` g`faagcgf`t hedfstgc ag`m`cgmldmrifts. Aerfgk` hgrfct g`vfstdf`t (AHG) alews g`te tbf ^ZC prevghfh suppertg`kfvghf`cf aer tbgs clmgd.=

Xbf dehfr` dfrcm`tglgst vgfw, fdjrmcfh jy Mgzf`dm` m`h Lff (:>>;, :>>2) m`hetbfrs, prevghfh m lfss sm`kug`f g`tfrprftmtge` ea tbf pfrsgstf`t klejml gdjmlm`cfs tbmtfdfrkfh g` tbf :>>>s. [bglf Mgzf`dm` m`h Lff ceàgrdfh tbf bemrhg`k eag`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs tbmt mccedpm`gfh currf`t mcceu`t surplusfs wms hedg`mtfh jy m

=

Cmjmllfre, Amrbg, m`h Keurg`cbms (:>>2), Ou m`h [fg (:>=>), m`h etbfrs fxplerfh tbgs g`tfrprftmtge` g`dehfls wgtb AHG m`h klejml gdjmlm`cfs.


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8

prfcmutge`mry detgvf prger te :>>>, m ag`hg`k ce`sgstf`t wgtb Mgzf`dm` m`h Dmrge`s(:>>3, :>>8) fmrlgfr g`tfrprftmtge`s, tbfrf mppfmrfh te jf m rfkgdf cbm`kf matfrwmrhs.Xbf ^ZCs g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs tbmt bmh jff` trf`hlfss hurg`k tbf sfce`h bmla ea tbf=77>s, bevfrg`k mreu`h =6% ea KH^, matfr :>>> krfw mt m` m`ùml rmtf ea mjeut 8%,rfmcbg`k mldest 86% ea KH^ g` :>>; (Agkurf =).

Agkurf =? Xbf ^feplfs Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`ms G`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs/KH^ (%),=72>:>=:

KH^ 4 kress hedfstgc prehuct.

Seurcf? Mutbers cmlculmtge`.

Mgzf`dm` m`h Lff (:>>2) peg`tfh te de`ftmry dfrcm`tglgsd ms tbf dmg` rfmse` aer tbfrfkgdf cbm`kf. Lgif fmrlgfr dfrcm`tglgst faaerts te fxpm`h fxpert dmrifts m`hmccudulmtf kelh hfscrgjfh jy Mhmd Sdgtb (=;;1), matfr tbf yfmr :>>> fdfrkg`kfceèdgfs sucb ms tbf ^ZC stmrtfh pusbg`k fxperts te predetf krewtb, rmcig`k up

currf`t mcceu`t surplusfs m`h krewg`k stecipglfs ea g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs. Xbfùdjfrs wfrf gdprfssgvf. E` tbf fvf ea tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs, tbf ^ZCs rfml KH^krewtb bmh rfmcbfh =8% (Agkurf :), gts currf`t mcceu`t surplus bmh krew` te =>% eaKH^ (Agkurf 3), m`h gts g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs bmh rfmcbfh mldest 86% ea KH^ prger tetbf crgsgs, pfmig`k mt mjeut 6>% g` :>=> (Agkurf =). Bewfvfr, u`lgif Heelfy ft ml.s(:>>3, :>>8, :>>6) wg`-wg` vgfw ea klejml gdjmlm`cfs juaafrfh jy g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfbemrhg`k, Mgzf`dm` m`h Lff (:>>2) wmr`fh tbmt dehfr` dfrcm`tglgsd ceulh lfmh teu`g`tf`hfh mhvfrsf ce`sfquf`cfs sucb ms cedpftgtgvf bemrhg`k.


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6

Agkurf :? Xbf ^feplfs Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`ms Zfml KH^ Krewtb (%, m``uml), =72>:>=:

KH^ 4 kress hedfstgc prehuct.


Agkurf 3? Xbf ^feplfs Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`ms Currf`t Mcceu`t/KH^ (%), =72>:>=:

KH^ 4 kress hedfstgc prehuct, ^ZC 4 ^feplfs Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`m.



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1

Xbf vgfw tbmt lmrkf Fmst[fst klejml gdjmlm`cfs ceulh jf sustmg`fh aer m le`k pfrgehwms èt sbmrfh jy fvfrye`f. Fgcbf`krff` (:>>;) m`h Aflhstfg` (:>>2), aer fxmdplf,mrkufh tbf Msgm` pfrgpbfry wms èt deèlgtbgc9 sedf dfdjfr ea tbf pfrgpbfry dgkbtmjm`he` agxfh fxcbm`kf rmtfs mkmg`st tbf hellmr see`fr rmtbfr tbm` lmtfr, fgtbfrwgllg`kly er g` rfspe`sf te spfculmtgvf prfssurfs, tbfrfjy rfhucg`k Fmst-[fst klejmlgdjmlm`cfs. Ejstaflh m`h Zekeaa (:>>6) mlse smw lmrkf gdjmlm`cfs ms u`sustmg`mjlfm`h werrgfh tbfy dgkbt u`wg`h mjruptly rmtbfr tbm` krmhumlly.

Mlamre, Imlfdlg-Ezcm`, m`h Qelesevycb (:>==) ejsfrvfh tbmt klejml gdjmlm`cfs wbfrfpeerfr fceèdgfs ag`m`cfh rgcbfr e`fs wfrf hrgvf` dmg`ly jy kevfr`df`t hfcgsge`sm`h eaagcgml cmpgtml alews, sg`cf prgvmtf au`hs tf`hfh te devf g` tbf eppesgtf hgrfctge`,mttrmctfh jy bgkbfr krewtb rmtfs g` peerfr fceèdgfs. Xbfy rmgsfh ce`cfr`s mjeut tbfklejml faagcgf`cy m`h sustmg`mjglgty ea tbfsf trf`hs.:

Mgzf`dm` m`h Su` (:>=>) mlse rmgsfh heujts tbmt lmrkf klejml gdjmlm`cfs ceulh jfsustmg`mjlf. Xbfy mrkufh tbmt wgtb tbf ^ZC krewg`k mt twgcf tbf rmtf ea tbf VS, tbf VScurrf`t mcceu`t hfagcgts `ffhfh te mjserj tbf ^ZCs surplusfs g` cedg`k yfmrsg` tbf

mjsf`cf ea etbfr jgk fceèdgfs wgllg`k te ru` lmrkf hfagcgtsweulh jf u`rfmlgstgcmllybgkb m`h bf`cf sfla-lgdgtg`k g` tbf èt tee hgstm`t auturf.

3

Xbf` tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs bgt. G` tbf VS tbf prgvmtf sfcter wms aercfh te hflfvfrmkf m`hrfhucfh gts hfdm`h aer gdperts. Etbfr crgsgs-bgt hfvflepfh fceèdgfs mlse cut jmci e`gdperts. Ms tbf ^ZC fxpfrgf`cfh wfmifr fxpert hfdm`h, gt teei sfrgeusly tbf cmll jytbf G`tfr`mtge`ml De`ftmry Au`h (GDA) aer derf rflgm`cf e` hedfstgc spf`hg`k tesustmg` krewtb. Gt jfkm` predetg`k krfmtfr hedfstgc ce`sudptge` m`h g`vfstdf`t wgtbtbf bflp ea m hedfstgc crfhgt jeed. Gt mlse pursufh agscml stgdulus m`h mllewfh gts rfmlfxcbm`kf rmtf te mpprfcgmtf. Gt mttfdptfh te hgvfrsgay gts belhg`ks ea hellmr-hfèdg`mtfhrfsfrvf mssfts jy crfmtg`k m sevfrfgk` wfmltb au`h m`h f`ceurmkg`k eutwmrh AHG.

Xbf hmtm mrf rfvfmlg`k. Sg`cf tbf e`sft ea tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs, Fmst-[fst klejml

gdjmlm`cfs bmvf amllf` hrmdmtgcmlly. Xbf currf`t mcceu`t jmlm`cfs ea tbf werlhs jgksurplus fceèdgfs tbmt tetmlfh :.6% ea werlh KH^ g` :>>2 bmvf jff` jflew :% sg`cf:>>79 tbf currf`t mcceu`t hfagcgts ea tbf jgkkfst hfagcgt fceèdgfs bmvf sbew` m sgdglmrhfclg`f (sff Xmjlfs =m m`h =j).

:Aff`strm m`h Be`k (:>=>) rmgsfh qufstge`s mjeut tbf faagcmcy m`h sustmg`mjglgty ea fxpert-lfh krewtb g`

tbf ^ZC ms tbf wmy te g`crfmsf auturf fdpleydf`t. Xbfy cmlculmtfh tbmt fxpert krewtb evfr tbf pfrgeh:>>>:>>6 ceulh fxplmg` tbf f`tgrf g`crfmsf g` tbf ^ZCs fdpleydf`t evfr tbmt pfrgeh, jut cedpmrmjlffdpleydf`t kmg`s ceulh bmvf jff` mcbgfvfh jy krewg`k hedfstgc hfdm`h.

3Mgzf`dm` m`h Ogòmrmi (:>>7) cmpturfh fdpgrgcmlly tbf msyddftrgc faafct ea tbf VS ms tbf "hfdm`hfr ea

lmst rfsert." Aer tbf pfrgeh =72=:>>1, m =% g`crfmsf g` tbf lmkkfh VS currf`t mcceu`t hfagcgt wmsmssecgmtfh wgtb m >.6% g`crfmsf g` tbf currf`t mcceu`t surplusfs ea surplus fceèdgfs. Xbfy preofctfhm sgzmjlf hrep g` tbf ^ZCs currf`t mcceu`t surplusfs matfr :>>1, pessgjly amllg`k te =% ea tbf ^ZCs

KH^ jy :>=3 g` m "werst-cmsf scf`mrge" wbfrf mll ce`hgtge`g`k vmrgmjlfs hftfrgermtfh jy e`f stm`hmrhhfvgmtge`.


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;

Xmjlf =m? Hgstrgjutge` ea Suhhf`-Steps g` Currf`t Mcceu`ts (% KH^)

Wfmr

Hrep g` = Wfmr Hrep g` : Wfmrs

MvfrmkfSgzf (%)

@e. ea Fceèdgfswgtb Zfhuctge`s 0

8% KH^ FceèdgfsMvfrmkfSgzf (%)

@e. ea Fceèdgfswgtb Zfhuctge` 0

8% KH^ Fceèdgfs

=72> . > . >

=72= . > . >

=72: . > . >

=723 . > . >

=728 3.; > =.2 >

=726 =.= > =.8 >

=721 :.6 : H_, FX 3.; : GL, D_

=72; =.2 = ^B 8.8 = X[

=722 :.; > 3.2 3 DM, DW, _M

=727 3.= : DM, IZ 3.7 = IZ

=77> =.8 > 1.= = SW

=77= 7.2 = SW -=3.2 = SW=77: :.: > 8.: = CE

=773 =.; > 1.3 = FK

=778 >.8 > :.> >

=776 :.; = CG =.= >

=771 >.2 > :.> >

=77; >.2 > 3.6 = SM

=772 3.> = D_ ;.> : D_, G]

=777 :.8 > 6.> : LI, XB

:>>> >.1 > :.> >

:>>= 3.= = ZV 8.: = ZV

:>>: =.1 > :.6 >

:>>3 :.= > 3.2 3 MZ, Î, SW:>>8 =.7 > 3.> = X[

:>>6 >.; > :.: >

:>>1 3.3 = @K 6.: 3 @K, SM, VK

:>>; 6.8 : ME, Q@ 6.; 8 ME, H_, ^F, Q@

:>>2 :.8 : GZ, DD ;.6 8 C@, GZ, G], DD

:>>7 ::.6 = G] =1.; = G]

:>=> :.3 = XZ 8.> = XZ

:>== > >.; >

:>=: :.: = JA >KH^ 4 kress hedfstgc prehuct. Aer fceèdy mjjrfvgmtge`s, sff Mppf`hgx.

@etfs? Xbgs tmjlf rfperts tbf hgstrgjutge` ea currf`t mcceu`t rfhuctge` (% KH^) aer fceèdgfs tbmtfxpfrgf`cfh g`crfmsg`k currf`t mcceu`t surplusfs g` tbf prger tbrff er derf yfmrs, g.f., g`cghf`cfea currf`t mcceu`t rfvfrsmls. Mvfrmkf sgzf (%) gs tbf dfm` rfhuctge` g` currf`t mcceu`ts (%KH^) ea rfvfrsml fceèdgfs. Xbf cmlculmtge` fxcluhfs fceèdgfs wgtb pepulmtge` ea lfss tbm` =>dgllge`.



10/28


2

Xmjlf =j? Hgstrgjutge` ea Suhhf`-Steps g` Currf`t Mcceu`ts (% [erlh KH^)

Wfmr

Hrep g` = Wfmr Hrep g` : Wfmrs

MvfrmkfSgzf (%)

@e. eaFceèdgfs wgtb

Zfhuctge`s 0>.=% KH^ Fceèdgfs MvfrmkfSgzf (%)

@e. ea Fceèdgfs

wgtb Zfhuctge` 0>.=% KH^ Fceèdgfs

=72> . > . >

=72= . > . >

=72: . > . >

=723 . > . >

=728 >.>: > >.>: >

=726 >.>= > > >

=721 >.>= > >.>= >

=72; >.>: > >.>6 = O^

=722 >.>= > >.>: >

=727 >.>= > >.>8 >

=77> >.>: > >.>7 = HF

=77= >.>: > >.>3 >

=77: >.>2 = VS >.=: = VS

=773 > > >.>= >

=778 >.>: > >.>8 = O^

=776 >.>= > >.>= >

=771 >.>= > > >

=77; >.>: > >.>3 >

=772 >.>= > >.>: >

=777 > > >.>3 >

:>>> >.>3 > >.>8 >

:>>= >.>= > >.>: >:>>: > > > >

:>>3 > > >.>= >

:>>8 >.>: > >.>3 >

:>>6 >.>= > >.>: >

:>>1 > > >.>: >

:>>; >.>: > >.>= >

:>>2 >.>3 > >.>; : C@, HF

:>>7 >.=> = C@ >.=: = C@

:>=> >.>6 > >

:>== > > >.>: >

:>=: >.>= > >KH^ 4 kress hedfstgc prehuct.

@etfs? Xbgs tmjlf rfperts tbf hgstrgjutge` ea currf`t mcceu`t rfhuctge` (% [erlh KH^) aerfceèdgfs tbmt fxpfrgf`cfh g`crfmsg`k currf`t mcceu`t surplusfs g` tbf prger tbrff er derf yfmrs,g.f., g`cghf`cf ea currf`t mcceu`t rfvfrsmls. Mvfrmkf sgzf (%) gs tbf dfm` rfhuctge` g` currf`tmcceu`ts (% KH^) ea rfvfrsml fceèdgfs. Xbf cmlculmtge` fxcluhfs fceèdgfs wgtb pepulmtge` ealfss tbm` => dgllge`.


Xbf ^ZC m`h tbf VS bmvf mlse sff` tbfgr gdjmlm`cfs sbrgì (sff Agkurfs 8 m`h 6).Xbf ^ZCs currf`t mcceu`t surplus afll ared =>.=% ea KH^ g` :>>; te 6.=% g` :>>7m`h te :.3% g` :>=: (Agkurf 3). Ms m sbmrf ea klejml KH^, tbf ^ZCs surplus afll ared>.;% g` :>>2 te >.:;% g` :>=:. Xbf hrep g` :>>7 mle`f wms tbf lmrkfst fvfr rfcerhfh


11/28


7

g` tbf lmst tbgrty yfmrs (Xmjlf =j). Mccerhg`k te tbf GDA, tbf ^ZCs currf`t mcceu`tsurplus gs fxpfctfh te jf >.3:% ea werlh KH^ mt tbf f`h ea :>=3.

Agkurf 8? Mhoustdf`t ea tbf ^feplfs Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`ms G`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs($ jgllge`)



Jfaerf tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs, tbf VS currf`t mcceu`t hfagcgt wms mjeut 1% ea VS KH^ g`jetb :>>6 m`h :>>1 m`h 6% g` :>>;. Matfr tbf e`sft ea tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs gt afll te :.;%g` :>>7 m`h :.2% g` :>=:. Ms m sbmrf ea klejml KH^, tbf VS currf`t mcceu`t hfagcgtmlse afll hrmdmtgcmlly. Xbf GDA fxpfcts gt te jf mt m sgxtff`-yfmr lew ea >.18% jy tbff`h ea :>=3.


12/28


=>

Agkurf 6? Currf`t Mcceu`ts (%) ea tbf ^feplfs Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`m m`h tbf V`gtfhStmtfs



Stm`hmrh dmcrefceèdgc dehfls cm` fmsgly mcceu`t aer tbf rfhuctge` g` klejmlgdjmlm`cfs g` tbf gddfhgmtf matfrdmtb ea m ag`m`cgml crgsgs. Ag`m`cgml argctge`s m`hbeusfbelh hflfvfrmkg`k rfhucf gdpert hfdm`h ms wfll ms mkkrfkmtf hfdm`h g` crgsgs-bgt fceèdgfs, rfhucg`k tbfgr currf`t mcceu`t hfagcgts. Xbf hfclg`f er rfvfrsml g`g`tfr`mtge`ml ag`m`cgml gàlews hurg`k m ag`m`cgml crgsgs mlse hfprfcgmtfs tbfgr rfmlfxcbm`kf rmtfs, aurtbfr rfhucg`k tbfgr hfagcgts. Ga wfmi hfdm`h gdpmcts dm`yfceèdgfs, tbfrf mrf afw te tmif up tbf slmci. Fceèdgfs wgtb lmrkf currf`t mcceu`tsurplusfs, sucb ms tbf ^ZC, wgll sff hfdm`h cellmpsf aer tbfgr fxperts m`h wgllfxpfrgf`cf hfclg`g`k currf`t mcceu`t surplusfs. êlgcgfs tbmt stgdulmtf hedfstgchfdm`h te dmif up aer tbf fxpert sbertamll cm` rfhucf currf`t mcceu`t surplusfs fvf`

derf.

G` tbgs pmpfr, wf leei mt tbf hmtm m`h devf hgrfctly te m` fdpgrgcml g`vfstgkmtge`. [ffxplerf pm`fl rfkrfssge`s ms m wmy te bgkblgkbt gdpertm`t cerrflmtge`s jftwff` currf`tmcceu`t jmlm`cfs m`h fceèdgc vmrgmjlfs jetb jfaerf m`h matfr tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs.Mltbeukb hmtm mrf e`ly mvmglmjlf aer sgx yfmrs sg`cf tbf e`sft ea tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs, tbfrfkrfssge` fstgdmtfs prevghf sedf sukkfstgvf fvghf`cf ea wbftbfr tbf crgsgs wgll bmvfm le`k-lmstg`k gdpmct e` dehfrmtg`k currf`t mcceu`t gdjmlm`cfs, pmrtgculmrly tbesf eatbf ^ZC m`h tbf VS.

Xbf rfst ea tbf pmpfr gs erkm`gzfh ms aellews. Sfctge` : hfscrgjfs tbf hmtm m`h eurfstgdmtge` precfhurf. Sfctge` 3 prfsf`ts jmsflg`f rfsults m`h cbfcis tbfgr rejust`fsscedpmrfh wgtb mltfr`mtgvf spfcgagcmtge`s. Sfctge` 8 aecusfs e` tbf ^ZC. Gt cedpmrfstbf mctuml hfclg`f g` tbf ^ZCs currf`t mcceu`t surplusfs pest-:>>1 wgtb prfhgctfh


13/28


14/28


=:

3. JMSFLG@F ZFSVLXS M@H ZEJVSX@FSS CBFCIS

Jfaerf precffhg`k wgtb tbf aerdml fstgdmtge`, wf agrst tfst aer pessgjlf è`-stmtge`mrgty.Aer fmcb vmrgmjlf, wf pfraerd pm`fl hmtm u`gt-reet tfsts usg`k m Agsbfr-typf precfhurf,

g`cluhg`k e`f lmk g` tbf tfst. Xbf tfst gs èt lgdgtfh te m jmlm`cfh smdplf m`h bms m ùllbypetbfsgs tbmt mll tbf pm`fls ce`tmg` m u`gt reet. Jmsfh e` tbf tfst rfsults, è`-stmtge`mry vmrgmjlfs mrf tbf` agrst-hgaafrf`cfh.

Xmjlf :m prfsf`ts jmsflg`f rfsults evfr tbf smdplf pfrgeh =723:>=: m`h twe suj-pfrgehs=723:>>1 m`h :>>;:>=:. Xbf pm`fl rfkrfssge`s fxplmg` evfr e`f-bmla eatbf vmrgmtge` g` tbf currf`t mcceu`t. Xbf keeh`fss ea agt gs jfttfr aer tbf =723:>>1

suj-pfrgeh ( : >.17Z 4 ) tbm` aer tbf :>>;:>=: suj-pfrgeh ( : >.66Z 4 ), sukkfstg`k mcbm`kf matfr tbf e`sft ea tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs.

Xmjlf :m? Jmsflg`f Fstgdmtge`

Hfpf`hf`t Qmrgmjlf 4 Currf`t

Mcceu`t (%KH^) =723:>=: =723:>>1 :>>;:>=:cefaa. (s.f.) cefaa. (s.f.) cefaa. (s.f.)Lmkkfh Currf`t Mcceu`t(%KH^) ->.8: (>.>:)*** ->.88 (>.>3)*** ->.68 (>.>1)***Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g`G`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs(%KH^) >.>2 (>.>:)*** >.>1 (>.>:)*** >.=: (>.>8)***Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g` KH^ pfrBfmh ($=,>>> mt ^^^) >.=> (>.>7) >.36 (>.=>)*** >.>; (>.=7)Lmkkfh Fxperts ea @mturmlZfseurcfs (%KH^) >.>= (>.>=) >.>: (>.>=)* ->.>: (>.>:)

Lmkkfh Zfml KH^ Krewtb (%) ->.:8 (>.>:)*** ->.=; (>.>3)*** ->.=6 (>.>;)**Lmkkfh Zfml Fxcbm`kf Zmtf

Mpprfcgmtge` ->.>= (>.>>)*** >.>> (>.>>) ->.>: (>.>:)Lmkkfh Cbm`kf g` Steci eaûjlgc Hfjt (%KH^) ->.>; (>.>=)*** ->.>: (>.>=)*** ->.=8 (>.>3)***

Lmkkfh Xrmhf/KH^ :.36 (>.;;)*** 1.3: (=.>;)*** -=:.62 (:.82)***Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g` VSHfdm`h (CM Hfagcgt %KH^) >.87 (>.>8)*** >.:1 (>.>6)*** >.:1 (>.:>)

Ce`stm`t ->.7: (=.=2) -8.38 (=.:>)*** 6.13 (3.>3)*

Ejsfrvmtge`s =866 776 81>

Fceèdgfs 76 76 76

Ceu`try Agxfh-Faafcts Wfs Wfs Wfs

Z: >.66 >.17 >.66A-Xfst? B>? Mll tbf cefaagcgf`ts

ared =723:>>1 rfkrfssge`mrf tbf smdf ms mll tbfcefaagcgf`ts ared :>>;:>=:rfkrfssge`

A(:>,=38=)417.=:9 ^rej0A4>.>>>>

KH^ 4 kress hedfstgc prehuct, cefaa. 4 cefaagcgf`t, s.f. 4 stm`hmrh frrer, ^^^ 4 purcbmsg`kpewfr pmrgty, CM 4 currf`t mcceu`t.

@etfs? Xbf pm`fl fstgdmtge` gs he`f evfr tbf spfcgagfh pfrgeh m`h g`cluhfs ceu`try agxfh-faafcts.Xbf vmrgmjlfs mrf agrst-hgaafrf`cfh ga tbfy ce`tmg` (pm`fl) u`gt-reets ghf`tgagfh ared pm`fl è`-stmtge`mry tfsts. Stm`hmrh frrers, clustfrfh jy ceu`try, mrf g` pmrf`tbfsfs9 *** (**, *) hfètfsstmtgstgcml sgk`gagcm`cf mt tbf =% (6%, =>%) lfvfl.


Xbf rfsults g` Xmjlf :m g`hgcmtf tbmt dest ea tbf fceèdgc vmrgmjlfs mrf sgk`gagcm`tly

cerrflmtfh wgtb tbf currf`t mcceu`t g` tbf wbelf smdplf m`h mcress tbf twe suj-


15/28


=3

pfrgehs. Xbf sgk`s e` tbf cerrflmtge`s mrf ms fxpfctfh. Xbf cerrflmtge`s cm` jfcbmrmctfrgzfh ms aellews?

Xbf cerrflmtge` jftwff` tbf currf`t mcceu`t surplus m`h m` g`crfmsf g` g`tfr`mtge`mlrfsfrvfs gs mlwmys pesgtgvf m`h sgk`gagcm`t.

Xbf cerrflmtge` jftwff` tbf currf`t mcceu`t surplus m`h m` g`crfmsf g` VS hfdm`hgs pesgtgvf m`h sgk`gagcm`t aer tbf aull smdplf pfrgeh m`h prf-crgsgs pfrgeh. Xbfcerrflmtge` gs g`sgk`gagcm`t pest-crgsgs. Xbf lmttfr rfsult sukkfsts m pessgjlf structurmlcbm`kf g` tbf relf ea tbf VS ms tbf hfdm`hfr ea lmst rfsert aellewg`k tbf ag`m`cgmlcrgsgs.

Xbf cerrflmtge` jftwff` tbf currf`t mcceu`t surplus m`h rfml KH^ krewtb gs mlwmys`fkmtgvf m`h sgk`gagcm`t9 tbf smdf gs truf ea tbf cerrflmtge` jftwff` tbf currf`tmcceu`t surplus m`h tbf g`crfmsf g` pujlgc hfjt.

Xbf cerrflmtge` jftwff` tbf currf`t mcceu`t surplus m`h trmhf gs pesgtgvf m`hsgk`gagcm`t aer tbf aull smdplf pfrgeh m`h prf-crgsgs pfrgeh, jut `fkmtgvf m`h sgk`gagcm`t

pest-crgsgs. Xbf cerrflmtge` jftwff` tbf currf`t mcceu`t surplus m`h mpprfcgmtge` ea tbf rfml

fxcbm`kf rmtf gs `fkmtgvf m`h sgk`gagcm`t aer tbf aull smdplf pfrgeh, jut g`sgk`gagcm`tg` fmcb ea tbf twe suj-pfrgehs.

Xbf cerrflmtge` rfsults aer trmhf m`h tbf rfml fxcbm`kf rmtf mrf ce`sgstf`t wgtb tbfcedplfdf`tmry rflmtge`sbgp jftwff` tbf surplus fceèdgfs m`h tbf VS prger te tbfag`m`cgml crgsgs m`h gts rfvfrsml matfr tbf crgsgs. ^rger te tbf crgsgs, tbf rflmtgvfly bgkb rmtfsea fdpleydf`t m`h lew rmtfs ea u`fdpleydf`t g` tbf VS ms wfll ms tbf prfsudptge`tbmt Xbf Krfmt Dehfrmtge` wms tbf `fw èrdml put te rfst dest ce`cfr`s mjeutg`crfmsg`k klejml gdjmlm`cfs. Derfevfr, lmrkf m`h krewg`k VS currf`t mcceu`t hfagcgtstrm`slmtfh g`te lmrkf m`h krewg`k werlh hfdm`h aer VS mssfts tbmt bflpfh iffp VS

g`tfrfst rmtfs lew m`h mllewfh tbf VS te mccfss klejml smvg`ks wbf` gts ew` smvg`krmtf wms lew. Xbfsf trf`hs wfrf cedplfdf`tfh jy tbf krewg`k fxperts m`h currf`tmcceu`t surplusfs ea tbf ^ZC m`h etbfr fdfrkg`k dmrifts ms tbfy pursufh fxpert-lfhkrewtb strmtfkgfs.

Xbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs aercfh fceèdgfs te ceàre`t m cbm`kfh klejml pgcturf, wgtb ducbslewfr krewtb g` tbf EFCH fceèdgfs m`h rfhucfh hfdm`h aer tbf fxperts eafdfrkg`k dmrifts tbmt bmh prfvgeusly rflgfh e` fxpert-lfh krewtb strmtfkgfs. G` tbfpest-crgsgs f`vgre`df`t, hfprfcgmtg`k currf`cgfs m`h bemrhg`k g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfsmrf èt fèukb te sustmg` rejust fxpert-lfh krewtb. Xbf fstgdmtfs g` Xmjlf :m ceàgrdtbmt m structurml cbm`kf bms tmif` plmcf pest-crgsgs. M` A-tfst rfofcts tbf ùll ea èstructurml cbm`kf jftwff` tbf prf-crgsgs pfrgeh (=723:>>1) m`h tbf pest-crgsgs pfrgeh

(:>>;:>=:).Xe fxplerf aurtbfr pessgjlf hgaafrf`cfs jftwff` tbf prf- m`h pest-crgsgs pfrgehs, wf rf-fstgdmtf tbf rfkrfssge` evfr tbf f`tgrf smdplf pfrgeh, èw g`cluhg`k m huddy vmrgmjlffquml te e`f aer tbf pest-crgsgs yfmrs :>>;:>=: plus g`tfrmctgvf tfrds. Xbf rfsults mrfrfpertfh g` Xmjlf :j. Xbf A-tfst ceàgrds tbmt tbf ùll ea è structurml cbm`kf jftwff`tbf prf-crgsgs m`h pest-crgsgs pfrgehs cm` jf rfofctfh wgtb bgkb ceàghf`cf.


16/28


=8

Xmjlf :j? Fstgdmtge` wgtb êst-Crgsgs Huddy

Hfpf`hf`t Qmrgmjlf 4 Currf`t Mcceu`t (%KH^) =723:>=:cefaa. (s.f.)

Lmkkfh Currf`t Mcceu`t (%KH^) ->.32 (>.>3)***

Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g` G`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs (%KH^) >.>1 (>.>:)**Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g` KH^ pfr Bfmh ($=,>>> mt ^^^) >.8: (>.=>)***

Lmkkfh Fxperts ea @mturml Zfseurcfs (%KH^) >.>= (>.>=)

Lmkkfh Zfml KH^ Krewtb (%) ->.=7 (>.>:)***

Lmkkfh Zfml Fxcbm`kf Zmtf Mpprfcgmtge` ->.>> (>.>>)**

Lmkkfh Cbm`kf g` Steci ea ûjlgc Hfjt (%KH^) ->.>8 (>.>=)***

Lmkkfh Xrmhf/KH^ :.3= (>.2;)***

Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g` VS Hfdm`h (CM Hfagcgt %KH^) >.36 (>.>6)***

HVD>;=: >.32 (>.6:)

HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh Currf`t Mcceu`t (%KH^) >.>: (>.>3)

HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g` G`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs (%KH^) >.=8 (>.>6)***

HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g` KH^ pfr Bfmh ($=,>>> mt ^^^) >.>3 (>.=6)

HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh Fxperts ea @mturml Zfseurcfs (%KH^) >.>= (>.>=)

HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh Zfml KH^ Krewtb (%) ->.:> (>.>6)***

HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh Zfml Fxcbm`kf Zmtf Mpprfcgmtge` >.>> (>.>>)

HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh Cbm`kf g` Steci ea ûjlgc Hfjt (%KH^) ->.>1 (>.>:)***

HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh Xrmhf/KH^ ->.:= (>.88)

HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g` VS Hfdm`h (CM Hfagcgt %KH^) ->.:2 (>.:>)

Ce`stm`t -=.6> (=.>;)

Ejsfrvmtge`s =87:

Fceèdgfs 7;

Ceu`try Agxfh-Faafcts Wfs

Z: >.1=

A-Xfst? B>? Huddy Qmrgmjlf aer :>>;:>=: m`h tbf G`tfrmctge` Xfrds mrfMll 4 > A(=>,=38=)4;.379 rej0A4>.>>>>


@etfs? Xbf pm`fl fstgdmtge` gs cmrrgfh eut aer tbf spfcgagfh pfrgeh m`h g`cluhfs ceu`try agxfh-faafcts. Xbf vmrgmjlfs mrf agrst-hgaafrf`cfh ga tbfy ce`tmg` (pm`fl) u`gt-reets ghf`tgagfh ared pm`flè`-stmtge`mry tfsts. HVD>;=:4= aer yfmrs :>>;:>=:, 4> etbfrwgsf. Stm`hmrh frrers, clustfrfhjy ceu`try, mrf g` pmrf`tbfsfs9 *** (**, *) hfètfs stmtgstgcml sgk`gagcm`cf mt tbf =% (6%, =>%)lfvfl.


Sfvfrml rfsults g` Xmjlf :j mrf ètfwertby. Xbf pesgtgvf cerrflmtge` jftwff` tbfcurrf`t mcceu`t surplus m`h g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs prger te tbf crgsgs gs sgk`gagcm`tly

derf pesgtgvf g` tbf pest-crgsgs pfrgeh. Xbgs pmttfr` gs ce`sgstf`t wgtb krfmtfrcedpftgtgvf bemrhg`k g` tgdfs ea klejml rfcfssge`mry prfssurfs. Xbf `fkmtgvfcerrflmtge`s ea tbf currf`t mcceu`t surplus wgtb rfml KH^ krewtb m`h tbf g`crfmsf g`pujlgc hfjt mrf sgk`gagcm`tly derf `fkmtgvf matfr tbf crgsgs. Xbgs rfsult gs ce`sgstf`t wgtbkrfmtfr agscml rftrf`cbdf`t g` tbf surplus fceèdgfs g` tbf matfrdmtb ea tbf crgsgs.

Xbf cerrflmtge` jftwff` tbf currf`t mcceu`t surplus m`h VS hfdm`h g` tbf prf-crgsgs

pfrgeh ( 4 >.36) gs pesgtgvf m`h bgkbly sgk`gagcm`t. Xbf pesgtgvf cerrflmtge` gs ducb

wfmifr g` tbf pest-crgsgs pfrgeh (4 >.36 >.:2), mltbeukb m` A-tfst rfvfmls gt gs stgllsgk`gagcm`t (A42.6:, ^rej0A4>.>>31). Matfr tbf e`sft ea tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs, tbf VS èle`kfr plmys sucb m` gdpertm`t relf ms hfdm`hfr ea lmst rfsert aer tbf fxperts ea etbfrfceèdgfs. Gts prgvmtf m`h pujlgc sfcters bmvf bmh te u`hfrke sujstm`tgml mhoustdf`ts,

dmig`k tbfd lfss mjlf te mjserj tbf werlhs fxperts. Xbf VS prgvmtf sfcter bms bmh te


17/28


=6

hflfvfrmkf g` rfspe`sf te tbf `fkmtgvf wfmltb faafcts ea hfclg`g`k rfml fstmtf m`hpertaelge vmlumtge`s. Xbf derf lgdgtfh mccfss ea beusfbelhs te tbf crfhgt dmrift bmsrmgsfh prgvmtf smvg`ks. Xbf VS pujlgc sfcter bms ce`trmctfh g` rfspe`sf te tbf f`h eatbf afhfrml agscml stgdulus, tbf hrep ea pujlgc g`vfstdf`t m`h spf`hg`k, m`h tbf`fkmtgvf stgdulus stfddg`k ared hfclg`g`k tmx rfvfùfs m`h deu`tg`k hfjts g` tbf agatyVS stmtfs. Xbfsf prgvmtf m`h pujlgc sfcter mhoustdf`ts pest-crgsgs bmvf rfqugrfh tbfVS te rftrfmt ared gts relf ms hfdm`hfr ea lmst rfsert aer tbf werlhs fxperts.

Xmjlf 3m rfperts rfsults aer tbf currf`t mcceu`ts ea surplus m`h è`-surplus fceèdgfsg` tbf prf- m`h pest-crgsgs pfrgehs. M surplus ceu`try gs hfag`fh ms e`f bmvg`k m currf`tmcceu`t surplus krfmtfr tbm` =.6% ea KH^ g` m kgvf` yfmr m`h bmvg`k fxpfrgf`cfh m`g`crfmsg`k surplus g` tbf prfvgeus twe yfmrs. Xbf currf`t mcceu`ts ea surplusfceèdgfs mrf sgk`gagcm`tly cerrflmtfh wgtb afwfr fceèdgc vmrgmjlfs tbm` tbf aullsmdplf ea fceèdgfs, m`h fvf` tbfsf sgk`gagcm`t cerrflmtge`s he èt kf`frmlly cmrryevfr te tbf pest-crgsgs pfrgeh. ^rger te tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs, tbf currf`t mcceu`ts easurplus fceèdgfs mrf pesgtgvfly m`h sgk`gagcm`tly mssecgmtfh wgtb tbf g`crfmsf g`g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs, trmhf, m`h tbf g`crfmsf g` tbf VS currf`t mcceu`t hfagcgt.

Xmjlf 3m? Surplus vfrsus @e`-Surplus Fceèdgfs

Hfpf`hf`t Qmrgmjlf 4Currf`t Mcceu`t (%KH^) Surplus? =723:>>1 Surplus? :>>;:>=:

@e`-Surplus?=723:>>1

@e`-Surplus? :>>;:>=:

cefaa. (s.f.) cefaa. (s.f.) cefaa. (s.f.) cefaa. (s.f.)Lmkkfh Currf`t Mcceu`t(%KH^) ->.8> (>.==)*** ->.8; (>.=8)*** ->.;2 (>.>3)*** ->.86 (>.>1)***Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g`G`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs(%KH^) >.8: (>.>2)*** ->.>> (>.==) ->.:7 (>.>3)*** >.=; (>.>1)***Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g` KH^pfr Bfmh ($=,>>> mt ^^^) =.>> (>.32)** ->.=6 (>.82) ->.22 (>.=6)*** >.11 (>.:1)**Lmkkfh Fxperts ea @mturmlZfseurcfs (%KH^) ->.=3 (>.>3)*** ->.>2 (>.>2) >.>3 (>.>=)*** >.>: (>.>:)Lmkkfh Zfml KH^ Krewtb

(%) ->.=8 (>.=8) >.1> (>.:;)** ->.=7 (>.>3)*** ->.36 (>.>;)***Lmkkfh Zfml Fxcbm`kfZmtf Mpprfcgmtge` >.>3 (>.>8) ->.=7 (>.>7)* ->.>: (>.>>)*** ->.>= (>.>:)Lmkkfh Cbm`kf g` Steci eaûjlgc Hfjt (%KH^) ->.== (>.>;) >.=> (>.=:) ->.>6 (>.>=)*** ->.>; (>.>8)*

Lmkkfh Xrmhf/KH^ ;.:2 (3.82)** =>.:8 (==.>:) ;.1= (=.:6)*** -3.:2 (:.1;)Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g` VSHfdm`h (CMHfagcgt %KH^) =.=8 (>.61)** -:.38 (>.23)*** >.36 (>.>;)*** ->.=> (>.:2)

Ce`stm`t -=3.1; (==.12) =.:6 (33.:2) =.87 (2.6:) 8.1: (6.6:)

Ejsfrvmtge`s =:; 13 212 37;

Fceèdgfs 81 3> 73 78

Ceu`try Agxfh-Faafcts Wfs Wfs Wfs Wfs

Z: >.;: >.28 >.73 >.68A-Xfst? B>? Mll tbf

cefaagcgf`ts ared =723:>>1 rfkrfssge` mrf tbfsmdf ms mll tbf cefaagcgf`ts

ared tbf :>>;:>=:rfkrfssge`

A(:>,=:8)41.6;9 rej0A4>.>>>> A(:>,==6:)43=.889 rej0A4>.>>>>


@etfs? Xbf pm`fl fstgdmtge` gs cmrrgfh eut aer tbf spfcgagfh pfrgeh m`h g`cluhfs ceu`try agxfh-faafcts. Fceèdgfs ru``g`k currf`t mcceu`t surplus bmvf pesgtgvf (0=.6%KH^) m`h g`crfmsg`ksurplus g` tbf pmst twe yfmrs. Xbf vmrgmjlfs mrf agrst-hgaafrf`cfh ga tbfy ce`tmg` (pm`fl) u`gt-reets(ghf`tgagfh ared pm`fl è`-stmtge`mry tfst). Stm`hmrh frrers, clustfrfh jy ceu`try, mrf g`pmrf`tbfsfs9 *** (**, *) hfètfs stmtgstgcml sgk`gagcm`cf mt tbf =% (6%, =>%) lfvfl.



18/28


=1

Matfr tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs, tbf agrst twe cerrflmtge`s mrf g`sgk`gagcm`t m`h tbf cerrflmtge`wgtb VS hfdm`h rfvfrsfs sgk`9 gt gs èw `fkmtgvf m`h sgk`gagcm`t. M` A-tfst rfofcts tbfùll ea è structurml jrfmi aer surplus fceèdgfs matfr tbf e`sft ea tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs.

M` A-tfst mlse rfofcts tbf ùll ea è structurml jrfmi mcress tbf twe pfrgehs aer è`-

surplus fceèdgfs. M ùdjfr ea cerrflmtge`s tbmt mrf bgkbly sgk`gagcm`t prger te tbf crgsgslesf tbfgr sgk`gagcm`cf g` tbf pest-crgsgs pfrgeh. Xbf relf ea tbf VS ms m hfdm`hfr ealmst rfsert, aer fxmdplf, lesfs gts sgk`gagcm`cf matfr :>>1.

Xe fxplerf aurtbfr tbf pessgjlf hgaafrf`cfs jftwff` tbf prf- m`h pest-crgsgs pfrgehs aertbf twe ceu`try kreupg`ks, wf fstgdmtf sfpmrmtf rfkrfssge`s aer tbf surplus m`h è`-surplus fceèdgfs, usg`k tbf aull smdplf pfrgeh m`h g`cluhg`k tbf tgdf huddy m`h gtsg`tfrmctge`s. Xbf rfsults mrf rfpertfh g` Xmjlf 3j. A-tfsts rfofct tbf ùll ea è structurmljrfmi pest-crgsgs aer jetb tbf surplus m`h è`-surplus fceèdgfs.


19/28


=;

Xmjlf 3j? Surplus vfrsus @e`-Surplus Fceèdgfs wgtb êst-Crgsgs Huddy

Hfpf`hf`t Qmrgmjlf 4 Currf`t Mcceu`t (%KH^) Surplus? =723:>=: @e`-Surplus? =723:>=:

cefaa. (s.f.) cefaa. (s.f.)

Lmkkfh Currf`t Mcceu`t (%KH^) ->.88 (>.=>)*** ->.32 (>.>3)***

Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g` G`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs (%KH^) >.32 (>.>;)*** >.=7 (>.>3)***

Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g` KH^ pfr Bfmh ($=,>>> mt ^^^) >.27 (>.3=)*** ->.>1 (>.=2)

Lmkkfh Fxperts ea @mturml Zfseurcfs (%KH^) ->.>7 (>.>3)*** >.>= (>.>=)

Lmkkfh Zfml KH^ Krewtb (%) ->.>8 (>.=>) ->.:: (>.>3)***

Lmkkfh Zfml Fxcbm`kf Zmtf Mpprfcgmtge` ->.>3 (>.>3) ->.>: (>.>>)***

Lmkkfh Cbm`kf g` Steci ea ûjlgc Hfjt (%KH^) ->.>3 (>.>6) ->.>: (>.>=)**

Lmkkfh Xrmhf/KH^ 1.66 (:.3>)*** >.:7 (>.78)

Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g` VS Hfdm`h (CM Hfagcgt %KH^) =.8> (>.61)** >.=6 (>.=3)

HVD>;=: -:.;; (:.32) -=.31 (>.62)**

HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh Currf`t Mcceu`t (%KH^) >.:> (>.==)* ->.>3 (>.>3)

HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g` G`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs(%KH^) ->.:7 (>.=>)*** >.>= (>.>1)HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g` KH^ pfr Bfmh($=,>>> mt ^^^) ->.8> (>.33) >.3; (>.::)*HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh Fxperts ea @mturml Zfseurcfs(%KH^) >.>= (>.>:) >.>> (>.>=)

HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh Zfml KH^ Krewtb (%) >.>6 (>.=6) ->.>1 (>.>6)

HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh Zfml Fxcbm`kf Zmtf Mpprfcgmtge` >.>3 (>.>:) >.>> (>.>>)HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh Cbm`kf g` Steci ea ûjlgc Hfjt(%KH^) ->.>7 (>.>2) ->.>6 (>.>3)**

HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh Xrmhf/KH^ >.=; (>.7;) >.1= (>.6:)HVD>;=: x Lmkkfh G`crfmsf g` VS Hfdm`h (CMHfagcgt %KH^) -:.62 (>.2:)*** ->.8> (>.:6)

Ce`stm`t -6.7> (;.;6) =.1; (=.>3)

Ejsfrvmtge`s =7> =:16

Fceèdgfs 8; 78

Ceu`try Agxfh-Faafcts Wfs Wfs

Z: >.;2 >.32

A-Xfst? B>? Huddy Qmrgmjlf aer :>>;=: m`h tbfG`tfrmctge` Xfrds mrf Mll 4 >

A(=>,=:8)4:.6;9^rej0A4>.>>;3

A(=>,==6:)4;.6:9^rej0A4>.>>>>


@etfs? Xbf pm`fl fstgdmtge` gs cmrrgfh eut aer tbf spfcgagfh pfrgeh m`h g`cluhfs ceu`try agxfh-faafcts. Fceèdgfs ru``g`k currf`t mcceu`t surplus bmvf pesgtgvf (0=.6%KH^) m`h g`crfmsg`ksurplus g` tbf pmst twe yfmrs. Xbf vmrgmjlfs mrf agrst-hgaafrf`cfh ga tbfy ce`tmg` (pm`fl) u`gt-reets

(ghf`tgagfh ared pm`fl è`-stmtge`mry tfst). HVD>;=:4= aer yfmrs :>>;:>=:, 4> etbfrwgsf.

Stm`hmrh frrers, clustfrfh jy ceu`try, mrf g` pmrf`tbfsfs9 *** (**, *) hfètfs stmtgstgcmlsgk`gagcm`cf mt tbf =% (6%, =>%) lfvfl.


Xbf relf ea tbf VS ms m hfdm`hfr ea lmst rfsert gs èt m` gdpertm`t amcter fgtbfr jfaerfer matfr tbf crgsgs aer è`-surplus fceèdgfs. Aer tbf surplus fceèdgfs, gt gs msgk`gagcm`t amcter g` fmcb pfrgeh.6

Xbf cerrflmtge` jftwff` tbf currf`t mcceu`t surplus m`h tbf g`crfmsf g` g`tfr`mtge`mlrfsfrvfs gs pesgtgvf m`h sgk`gagcm`t aer jetb surplus m`h è`-surplus fceèdgfs prger tetbf crgsgs. Matfr tbf crgsgs, tbfrf gs è sgk`gagcm`t cbm`kf g` tbf cerrflmtge` aer è`-

G`tfrfstg`kly, tbf VS relf ms hfdm`hfr ea lmst rfsert gssgk`gagcm`tly hgaafrf`t matfr tbf e`sft ea tbf crgsgs aer surplus fceèdgfs.

6M` A-tfst rfvfmls tbmt tbf cerrflmtge` g` tbf pest-crgsgs pfrgeh gs sgk`gagcm`t9 A47.2>, ^rej0A4>.>>::.


20/28


=2

surplus fceèdgfs. Aer tbf fceèdgfs g` surplus, bewfvfr, tbf cerrflmtge` gssgk`gagcm`tly hmdpf`fh matfr tbf crgsgs, mltbeukb m` A-tfst sbews tbmt gt rfdmg`s pesgtgvfm`h sgk`gagcm`t.1

8. XBF ^FE^LFS ZF^VJLGC EA CBG@MS CVZZF@XMCCEV@X M@H G@XFZ@MXGE@ML ZFSFZQFS

Agkurf 1 gllustrmtfs tbf ^ZCs currf`t mcceu`t surplus evfr tbf pfrgeh =777:>=:. Gtmlse hfpgcts twe aerfcmsts ea tbf ^ZCs currf`t mcceu`t aer tbf pest-:>>1 pfrgeh. Xbfprf-crgsgs aerfcmst gs jmsfh e` tbf fstgdmtfh rfkrfssge` cefaagcgf`ts ea tbf prf-crgsgsrfkrfssge` g` Xmjlf :m, wbglf tbf pest-crgsgs aerfcmst gs jmsfh e` cefaagcgf`ts ared tbf:>>;:>=: pfrgeh rfkrfssge` g` Xmjlf :m.

Agkurf 1? Aerfcmst ea tbf ^feplfs Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`ms Currf`t Mcceu`t (%)

CM 4 currf`t mcceu`t, KH^ 4 kress hedfstgc prehuct, ^ZC 4 ^feplfs Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`m.

@etf? Xbf prf-crgsgs (pest-crgsgs) aerfcmst gs jmsfh e` fstgdmtfh rfkrfssge` cefaagcgf`ts aer tbfpfrgeh =723:>>1 (:>>;:>=:).


Xbf prf-crgsgs aerfcmst prfhgcts m hfclg`g`k currf`t mcceu`t/KH^ surplus aer tbf ^ZCmatfr :>>2. Xbgs prfhgctge` gs g` lg`f wgtb tbf rfmlgzfh hfcrfmsf g` tbf ^ZCs currf`t

1G` e`f vfrsge` wf mhhfh tbf krewtb ea hedfstgc crfhgt ms m sbmrf ea KH^ ms m rfkrfsser m`h g`tfrmctfh gt

wgtb tbf tgdf huddy. G`cluhg`k tbf hedfstgc crfhgt vmrgmjlf rfhucfs tbf ceu`try smdplf ared 76 te 23.Xbf cerrflmtge` ea tbf currf`t mcceu`t surplus m`h tbf krewtb ea hedfstgc crfhgt gs pesgtgvf m`h

sgk`gagcm`t g` tbf prf-crgsgs pfrgeh e`ly aer tbf è`-surplus fceèdgfs m`h tbf cerrflmtge` g` tbf pest-crgsgs pfrgeh gs èt sgk`gagcm`tly hgaafrf`t ared tbf e`f g` tbf prf-crgsgs pfrgeh.


21/28


=7

mcceu`t surplus, jut gt u`hfr-prfhgcts tbf dmk`gtuhf ea tbf hfclg`f g` fmcb ea tbf pest-crgsgs yfmrs. Xbf pest-crgsgs aerfcmst prfhgcts m sbmrp hrep g` tbf ^ZCs currf`t mcceu`tms fmrly ms :>>; m`h evfr-prfhgcts tbf hfclg`f g` tbf ^ZCs currf`t mcceu`t surplus g`jetb :>>; m`h :>>2. Xbmt smgh, ared :>>7 e`wmrhs, tbf pest-crgsgs aerfcmst m`h tbf^ZCs mctuml currf`t mcceu`t dmtcb up qugtf `gcfly. Xbf aerfcmst prfhgcts m =% bgkbfrsurplus g` :>== tbm` wms rfmlgzfh, pessgjly jfcmusf gt hefs èt mcceu`t aer tbf agscmlpmcimkf mheptfh jy tbf ^ZCs kevfr`df`t te stgdulmtf tbf fceèdy.

Ag`mlly, wf fxmdg`f tbf cbm`kfs g` tbf ^ZCs g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs evfr tbf lmst tbgrty-tbrff yfmrs (Agkurf ;). [f qum`tgay tbf seurcfs ea tbfsf cbm`kfs. Xbgs fxfrcgsf mllewsus te trmcf tbf cbm`kg`k gdpmct ea g`wmrh m`h eutwmrh AHG e` g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs,ms wfll ms tbf gàluf`cf ea tbf trmhf jmlm`cf, hedfstgc crfhgt, m`h rfml fxcbm`kf-rmtfmpprfcgmtge`. Ms tbfrf gs è rfmse` aer tbf rflmtge`sbgp jftwff` rfsfrvfs m`h tbfsfamcters te jf stmjlf evfr tgdf, wf fxmdg`f sfpmrmtfly tbf prf-crgsgs m`h pest-crgsgspfrgehs.

Agkurf ;? Xbf ^feplfs Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`ms G`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs m`h Eutwmrh

AHG ($ jgllge`)

AHG 4 aerfgk` hgrfct g`vfstdf`t, ^ZC 4 ^feplfs Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`m, VS 4 V`gtfh Stmtfs.


Xmjlf 8 rfperts tbf rfsults ea rfkrfssg`k tbf cbm`kf g` tbf ^ZCs g`tfr`mtge`mlrfsfrvfs/KH^ e` trmhf/KH^, tbf alews ea g`wmrh m`h eutwmrh AHG/KH^, tbf g`crfmsf g`hedfstgc crfhgt/KH^, m`h rfml fxcbm`kf-rmtf mpprfcgmtge`. Celud`s G-Q rfpertfstgdmtfh cefaagcgf`ts m`h tbfgr stm`hmrh frrers wbf` fmcb ea tbf seurcf vmrgmjlfsf`tfrs tbf fstgdmtge` g`hgvghumlly. Xbf rfsults g`hgcmtf rfsfrvf g`crfmsfs mrf pesgtgvflym`h sgk`gagcm`tly cerrflmtfh wgtb tbf trmhf jmlm`cf, g`wmrh m`h eutwmrh AHG alews, tbf

g`crfmsf g` hedfstgc crfhgt, m`h tbf mpprfcgmtge` ea tbf rfml fxcbm`kf rmtf. Fstgdmtfs


22/28


:>

g` Celud`s QG m`h QGG sbew tbfsf cerrflmtge`s hgaafr wbf` tbf fceèdgc vmrgmjlfs mrfce`sghfrfh oeg`tly er wbf` tbf tgdf pfrgehs hgaafr.

Xmjlf 8? Fstgdmtge` ea tbf ^feplfs Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`m's G`tfr`mtge`ml ZfsfrvfsVsg`k M`ùml Hmtm, =72>:>=:

Hfpf`hf t Qmrgmjlf 4 G`tfr`mtge`mlZfsfrvfs/KH^

G GG GGG GQ Q QG QGG

GZt/KH t-=

GZt/KH^t-=

GZt/KH^t-=

GZt/KH^t-=

GZt/KH^t-=

GZt/KH^t-=

GZt/KH t-=

Lmkkfh Xrmhf Jmlm`cf/KH^ :.28 :.=8

(>.;;)*** (=.:1)

Lmkkfh G`wmrh AHG/KH^ =.73

(>.28)**

Lmkkfh Eutwmrh AHG/KH^ =.78 >.:2

(>.77)* (=.>6)

Lmkkfh Hedfstgc Crfhgt/KH^ :.83 =.;1

(>.6;)*** (>.17)**

Lmkkfh ZFFZ Mpprfcgmtge` =.8; ->.8=

(>.1;)** (>.17)

Lmkkfh Xrmhf Jmlm`cf/KH^ :>>>->1 1.77

(:.23)**

Lmkkfh Eutwmrh AHG/KH^ :>>>->1 -=.1>

(:.66)Lmkkfh HedfstgcCrfhgt/KH^ :>>>->1 :.>:

(>.7>)**

Lmkkfh Xrmhf Jmlm`cf/KH^ :>>;-=: 1.12

(>.22)***

Lmkkfh Eutwmrh AHG/KH^ :>>;-=: -=.82

(>.12)**Lmkkfh HedfstgcCrfhgt/KH^ :>>;-=: =.23

(>.6=)***

Ce`stm`t 8.62 8.=8 8.3> 8.77 8.:; 8.;7 :.27

(>.77)*** (=.>6)*** (=.>6)*** (=.==)*** (=.==)*** (=.>>)*** (=.:3)**

Ejsfrvmtge`s :2 3: 3= :1 3= :1 :1

Z

:

>.33 >.=; >.=1 >.:6 >.>7 >.8> >.61ZFFZ 4 rfml faafctgvf fxcbm`kf rmtf, KH^ 4 kress hedfstgc prehuct, cefaa. 4 cefaagcgf`t, s.f. 4stm`hmrh frrer, ^^^ 4 purcbmsg`k pewfr pmrgty, CM 4 currf`t mcceu`t.

@etfs? Mll vmrgmjlfs mrf lmkkfh m`h fxprfssfh ms m sbmrf ea KH^ fxcfpt aer ZFFZ mpprfcgmtge`.Qmrgmjlfs mrf fxprfssfh ms cbm`kfs. @fwfy-[fst stm`hmrh frrers mrf g` pmrf`tbfsfs9 *** (**, *)hfètfs stmtgstgcml sgk`gagcm`cf mt tbf =% (6%, =>%) lfvfl.


[f suddmrgzf tbf seurcfs ea cbm`kfs g` tbf ^ZCs g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs g` Agkurf 2.Xbgs agkurf plets tbf fceèdgc sgk`gagcm`cf ea m e`f-stm`hmrh-hfvgmtge` g`crfmsf g` tbfseurcf vmrgmjlf e` tbf cbm`kf g` tbf ^ZCs g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs ms m pfrcf`tmkf eagts KH^. Xbf cmlculmtge` gs jmsfh e` tbf rfkrfssge` rfpertfh g` Xmjlf 8, Celud` QGG.Xbf agkurf rfvfmls tbf relf ea tbf ^ZCs trmhf jmlm`cf e` gts g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs bms

jff` rfdmrimjly syddftrgc g` tbf prf- m`h pest-crgsgs pfrgehs, bgkblgkbtg`k tbf


23/28


:=

cedde` gdpmct ea tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs e` tbf ^ZCs currf`t mcceu`t m`h g`tfr`mtge`mlrfsfrvfs. Hedfstgc crfhgt mlse plmys ducb tbf smdf relf ms m seurcf ea cbm`kf g` tbfprf- m`h pest-crgsgs pfrgehs. Xbf smdf cm`èt jf smgh aer AHG. Eutwmrh AHG plmyfh èsgk`gagcm`t relf prger te tbf crgsgs, jut gt bms jfcedf m` gdpertm`t seurcf ea cbm`kf g`tbf ^ZCs g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs matfr tbf crgsgs.

Agkurf 2? Seurcfs ea Cbm`kfs g` tbf ^feplfs Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`ms G`tfr`mtge`mlZfsfrvfs/KH^ (%)

KH^ 4 kress hedfstgc prehuct, AHG 4 aerfgk` hgrfct g`vfstdf`t.

@etf? Xbgs agkurf plets fceèdgc sgk`gagcm`cf ea e`f-stm`hmrh-hfvgmtge` g`crfmsf g` tbf rfkrfssersaer tbf ^feplf Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`ms g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs/KH^ (%), jmsfh e` rfkrfssge` rfsults g`Xmjlf 8, QGG.


Xe put tbfsf rfsults g` m jremhfr pfrspfctgvf, gt gs wertb ètbg`k tbmt g` :>=:, hedfstgcg`vfstdf`t g` tbf ^ZC rfmcbfh mldest 6>% ea KH^ m`h hedfstgc crfhgt krfw te mjeut:>>% ea KH^. G` mhhgtge`, tbf ^ZCs smvg`k rmtf gs prejmjly wfll mjevf tbf Kelhf`Zulf rmtf. Xbfsf ce`sghfrmtge`s sukkfst m `ffh te rfjmlm`cf tbf fceèdy. Xbf

^ZCs rfdmrimjlf agscml m`h de`ftmry stgdulg g` tbf fmrly stmkfs ea tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgsprfvf`tfh m bmrh lm`hg`k hurg`k tbf pfrgeh :>>2:>=>. Bewfvfr, sucb pelgcgfs he ètsujstgtutf aer m `ffhfh rfstructurg`k ea tbf fceèdy, m rfstructurg`k tbmt rfvfrsfspelgcgfs hfprfssg`k ^ZC ce`sudptge` m`h prfvf`tg`k amstfr rfml mpprfcgmtge`. Xbgsrfjmlm`cg`k dmy f`tmgl lewfr currf`t mcceu`t surplusfs, amstfr krewtb ea tbf è`-trmhfhsfcter, m`h rfhucfh bemrhg`k ea rfsfrvfs. Cbm``flg`k g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs g`teaerfgk` fqugty m`h eutwmrh AHG dmy jf pmrt ea tbgs trm`saerdmtge`.

6. CE@CLVSGE@

^m`fl rfkrfssge`s sbew tbmt stm`hmrh vmrgmjlfs mheptfh jy tbf lgtfrmturf, dfmsurfs

cmpturg`k fceèdgc pfraerdm`cf, fceèdgc structurf, fxtfr`ml wfmltb, hfjt, m`h tbf

;.>

>.>

:.>

1.;

-=.6

=.2

-:.>

-=.>

>.>

=.>

:.>

3.>

8.>

6.>

1.>

;.>

2.>

Xrmhf Jmlm`cf/KH^ Eutwmrh AHG/KH^ Hedfstgc Crfhgt/KH^

:>>>->1 :>>;-=:


24/28


::

fxcbm`kf rmtf, mrf bflpaul g` fxplmg`g`k tbf currf`t mcceu`t jfbmvger ea mldest =>>fceèdgfs evfr tbf pfrgeh =723:>=:. Xbf relf ea tbf VS g` sustmg`g`k currf`tmcceu`t surplusfs flsfwbfrf jy ru``g`k gts ew` sgzfmjlf hfagcgts bms ejvgeuslyhgdg`gsbfh matfr tbf e`sft ea tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs. Xbf relf ea tbf ag`m`cgml crgsgs g`rfhucg`k klejml gdjmlm`cfs gs mlse fvghf`t. Derfevfr, tbfrf gs sedf fvghf`cf tbmt tbfag`m`cgml crgsgsm`h tbf gdpmct gt bms bmh e` jetb fceèdgc g`hgcmters m`h pelgcymctge`sbms jreukbt mjeut m structurml cbm`kf g` tbf rflmtge`sbgp jftwff` currf`tmcceu`ts m`h tbfsf fceèdgc amcters.

Xbf rfjmlm`cg`k ea currf`t mcceu`ts g` jetb tbf ^ZC m`h tbf VS pest-crgsgs wgll lgiflycbm`kf tbf pmttfr` ea g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvf bemrhg`k. [bglf tbf prfcmutge`mry detgvfaer bemrhg`k g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs gs ce`sgstf`t wgtb tbf ^ZC belhg`k m sgzfmjlfg`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvf stecipglf, gt hefs èt suppert tbf eptgdmlgty ea belhg`k rfsfrvfs g`tbf aerd ea lew-ygflhg`k VS kevfr`df`t hfjt mt lfvfls ea 8>% te 6>% ea KH^ (Ofm``f:>>;).

Bemrhg`k rfsfrvfs dmy hflmy tbf rfml mpprfcgmtge` mssecgmtfh wgtb succfssaul fxpert-

lfh krewtb, jut tbf g`fvgtmjlf mpprfcgmtge` ea tbf ^ZCs currf`cy wgll hfprfss fvfàurtbfr tbf rfml rftur` e` hellmr-hfèdg`mtfh mssfts bflh ms g`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs. Mderf jmlm`cfh strmtfky cmlls aer hgvfrsgayg`k eut ea lgqugh VS kevfr`df`t je`hs m`hg`te lfss lgqugh jut (fx-m`tf) bgkbfr-ygflhg`k rfml aerfgk` mssfts. Xbmt hgvfrsgagcmtge` cm`tmif plmcf tbreukb krfmtfr eutwmrh AHG tbmt, g` tur`, dgtgkmtfs rfsfrvf bemrhg`k.G`hffh, ms Agkurf ; gllustrmtfs, tbgs hgvfrsgagcmtge` bms mlrfmhy jfku`.;

;Sff Wm`k (:>=:) aer aurtbfr hgscussge` ea pessgjlf mhoustdf`t dehfs g` tbf ^ZC.


25/28


:3

ZFAFZF@CFS

Mgzf`dm`, O. :>>2. Ag`m`cgml vfrsus De`ftmry Dfrcm`tglgsdLe`k-Zu` Qgfw ea lmrkfG`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs Bemrhg`k. Xbf [erlh Fceèdy3=(6)? 6731==.

Mgzf`dm`, O., m`h W. Ogòmrmi. :>>7. Xbf VSM ms tbf Hfdm`hfr ea Lmst Zfsert m`htbf Gdplgcmtge`s aer Cbg`ms Currf`t Mcceu`t. ^mcgagc Fceèdgc Zfvgfw=8(3)?8:18:.

Mgzf`dm`, O., m`h O. Lff. :>>;. G`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs? ^rfcmutge`mry vfrsusDfrcm`tglgst Qgfws, Xbfery m`h Fvghf`cf. Epf` Fceèdgfs Zfvgfw=2(:)? =7=:=8.

Mgzf`dm`, O., m`h @. Dmrge`. :>>3. Xbf Bgkb Hfdm`h aer G`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs g` tbfAmr Fmst? [bmts Keg`k E`5 Oeur`ml ea tbf Ompm`fsf m`h G`tfr`mtge`mlFceèdgfs=;? 3;>8>>.

. :>>8. G`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvf Belhg`ks wgtb Sevfrfgk` Zgsi m`h Cestly Xmx

Cellfctge`. Fceèdgc Oeur`ml==8? 6177=.

Mgzf`dm`, O., m`h W. Su`. :>=>. Klejmlgzmtge` m`h tbf Sustmg`mjglgty ea Lmrkf Currf`tMcceu`t Gdjmlm`cfs? Sgzf Dmttfrs. Oeur`ml ea Dmcrefceèdgcs3:(=)? 3688.

Mlamre, L., S. Imlfdlg-Ezcm`, m`h Q. Qelesevycb. :>==. Sevfrfgk`s, Vpstrfmd CmpgtmlAlews m`h Klejml Gdjmlm`cfs. @JFZ [erig`k ^mpfr@e. =;371.

Cmjmllfre, Z., F. Amrbg, m`h ^.-E. Keurg`cbms. :>>2. M` Fquglgjrgud Dehfl ea KlejmlGdjmlm`cfs m`h Lew G`tfrfst Zmtfs.Mdfrgcm` Fceèdgc Zfvgfw72(=)? 36273.

Cbg``, D. H., m`h F. S. ^rmsmh. :>>3. Dfhgud-tfrd Hftfrdg`m`ts ea Currf`t Mcceu`tsg` G`hustrgml m`h Hfvflepg`k Ceu`trgfs? M` Fdpgrgcml Fxplermtge`. Oeur`ml eaG`tfr`mtge`ml Fceèdgcs 67? 8;;1.

Heelfy, D., H. Aelifrts-Lm`hmu, m`h ^. Kmrjfr. :>>3. M` Fssmy e` tbf ZfvgvfhJrftte` [eehs Systfd. @JFZ [erig`k ^mpfr@e. 77;=, pujlgsbfh g` :>>8 msXbf Zfvgvfh Jrftte` [eehs Systfd. G`tfr`mtge`ml Oeur`ml ea Ag`m`cf m`hFceèdgcs 7? 3>;=3.

. :>>8. Xbf VS Currf`t Mcceu`t Hfagcgt m`h Fceèdgc Hfvflepdf`t? Cellmtfrmlaer m Xetml Zftur` Swmp. @JFZ [erig`k ^mpfr@e. =>;:;.

. :>>;. Hgrfct G`vfstdf`t, Zgsg`k Zfml [mkfs m`h tbf Mjserptge` ea FxcfssLmjer g` tbf ^frgpbfry. G` K; Currf`t Mcceu`t Gdjmlm`cfs? Sustmg`mjglgty m`hMhoustdf`t, fhgtfh jy Z.B. Clmrghm. Cmdjrghkf, DM? @mtge`ml Jurfmu eaFceèdgc Zfsfmrcb.

Fgcbf`krff`, J. :>>;.Klejml Gdjmlm`cfs m`h tbf Lfsse`s ea Jrftte` [eehs.Cmdjrghkf, DM? DGX ^rfss.

Aff`strm, Z., m`h C. Be`k. :>=>. Cbg`ms Fxperts m`h Fdpleydf`t. G` Cbg`msKrewg`k Zelf g` [erlh Xrmhf, fhgtfh jy Z. Aff`strm m`h S.-O. [fg. Cmdjrghkf,DM m`h Cbgcmke, GL?@mtge`ml Jurfmu ea Fceèdgc Zfsfmrcb m`h V`gvfrsgty eaCbgcmke ^rfss.

Aflhstfg`, D. :>>2. Zfselvg`k tbf Klejml Gdjmlm`cf? Xbf Hellmr m`h tbf V`gtfh StmtfsSmvg`k Zmtf. Oeur`ml ea Fceèdgc frspfctgvfs::(3)? ==3:6.

Krujfr, O. [., m`h S. J. Imdg`. :>>;. Fxplmg`g`k tbf Klejml ^mttfr` ea Currf`t Mcceu`tGdjmlm`cfs. Oeur`ml ea G`tfr`mtge`ml De`fy m`h Ag`m`cf :1? 6>>::.


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:8

Ofm``f, E. :>>;. G`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs g` Fdfrkg`k Dmrift Ceu`trgfs? Xee Ducb ea mKeeh Xbg`k5 Jreeig`ks ^mpfrs e` Fceèdgc Mctgvgty32(=)? =2>. FceèdgcStuhgfs ^rekrmd. Xbf Jreeig`ks G`stgtutge`.

Ou, O., m`h S.-O. [fg. :>=>. Hedfstgc G`stgtutge`s m`h tbf Jypmss Faafct ea Ag`m`cgml

Klejmlgzmtge`.Mdfrgcm` Fceèdgc Oeur`ml? Fceèdgc êlgcy:(8)? =;3:>8.Ejstaflh, D., m`h I. Zekeaa. :>>6. Klejml Currf`t Mcceu`t Gdjmlm`cfs m`h Fxcbm`kf

Zmtf Mhoustdf`ts. Jreeig`ks ^mpfrs e` Fceèdgcs Mctgvgty=? 1;=:3.

Sdgtb, M. =;;1.M` G`qugry g`te tbf @mturf m`h Cmusfs ea tbf [fmltb ea @mtge`s.Le`he`? Dftbuf` & Ce.

Wm`k, H.X. :>=:. Mkkrfkmtf Smvg`ks m`h Fxtfr`ml Gdjmlm`cfs. Cbg`mOeur`ml eaFceèdgc frspfctgvfs:1(8)? =:6=81.


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:6

M^^F@HGR

Hmtm Hfscrgptge`

Currf`t Mcceu`t/KH^? Currf`t mcceu`t jmlm`cf ms m pfrcf`tmkf ea KH^.Seurcf? Fceèdgst G`tfllgkf`t V`gt (FGV).

G`tfr`mtge`ml Zfsfrvfs/KH^? Xetml rfsfrvfs (fxcluhg`k kelh), g`cluhg`k aerfgk`fxcbm`kf, rfsfrvf pesgtge` wgtb tbf G`tfr`mtge`mlDe`ftmry Au`h (GDA) m`h Spfcgml hrmwg`k rgkbts (SHZs)mt f`h-pfrgeh. Seurcf? FGV.

Zfml KH^ Krewtb? ^frcf`tmkf cbm`kf g` rfml kress hedfstgc prehuct(KH^) (ce`stm`t VS$), evfr prfvgeus yfmr (jmsfh e`KH^ mt ce`stm`t dmrift prgcfs, rfjmsfh te :>>6ce`stm`t prgcfs m`h trm`slmtfh g`te VS$ usg`k lecmlcurrf`cy? VS$ purcbmsg`k pewfr pmrgty (^^^) fxcbm`kf

rmtf g` :>>6). Seurcf? FGV.[erlh KH^? [erlhs KH^ mt ^^^ g` VS$. Seurcf? FGV.

G`wmrh AHG? Steci ea hgrfct g`vfstdf`t jy è`-rfsghf`ts g`te tbfceu`try, ms m pfrcf`tmkf ea KH^.

Eutwmrh AHG? Steci ea hgrfct g`vfstdf`t cmpgtml jy hedfstgc rfsghf`tseut ea tbf ceu`try, ms m pfrcf`tmkf ea KH^.

KH^ pfr Bfmh? KH^ mt ^^^, hgvghfh jy pepulmtge`. Seurcf? FGV.

Fxperts ea @mturml Zfseurcfs? Fxperts ea aufl m`h dg`frmls ms pfrcf`tmkf ea KH^.Seurcf? [erlh Hfvflepdf`t G`hgcmters ([HG).

Zfml Fxcbm`kf Zmtf Mpprfcgmtge`? Xrmhf-wfgkbtfh jmsift ea currf`cgfs ce`vfrtfh tem` g`hfx (=77;4=>>) m`h mhoustfh aer rflmtgvf prgcfdevfdf`ts. Seurcf? FGV.

Xrmhf/KH^? YFxperts + GdpertsT/KH^ rmtge. Seurcf? FGV.

Hedfstgc Crfhgt/KH^? (Jmì lf`hg`k te pujlgc m`h prgvmtf sfcters)/KH^

Steci ea ûjlgc Hfjt/KH^? Xetml hfjt hedfstgc, fxtfr`ml ewfh jy cf`trmlkevfr`df`t (jetb lecml m`h aerfgk` currf`cy) tehedfstgc rfsghf`ts, aerfgk` `mtge`mls m`h dultglmtfrmlg`stgtutge`s sucb ms tbf GDA, fxprfssfh ms m pfrcf`tmkfea KH^.

VS Hfdm`h? Currf`t mcceu`t hfagcgt ms pfrcf`tmkf ea KH^. Seurcf?FGV.

Lgst ea Fceèdgfs

Fceèdgfs g`cluhfh g` tbf fstgdmtge` (76)?

Mrkf`tg`m (MZ), Mustrgm (MX), Mustrmlgm (MV), Mzfrjmgom` (M_), Jm`klmhfsb (JH),Jflkgud (JF), Jmbrmg` (JB), Juru`hg (JG), Jelgvgm (JE), Jetswm`m (J[), Jflgzf (J_),Cm`mhm (CM), Swgtzfrlm`h (CB), Cetf H'Gvegrf (CG), Cbglf (CL), Cmdfree` (CD),^feplfs Zfpujlgc ea Cbg`m (C@), Celedjgm (CE), Cestm Zgcm (CZ), Cujm (CV),Kfrdm`y (HF), Hf`dmri (HI), Hedg`gcm` Zfpujlgc (HE), Mlkfrgm (H_), Fcumher (FC),

Fste`gm (FF), Fkypt (FK), Spmg` (FS), Ftbgepgm (FX), Ag`lm`h (AG), Agog (AO), Arm`cf (AZ),


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Kmje` (KM), V`gtfh Ig`khed (KJ), Kbm`m (KB), Krffcf (KZ), Kumtfdmlm (KX),Be`hurms (B@), Cremtgm (BZ), Bu`kmry (BV), G`he`fsgm (GH), Grflm`h (GF), G`hgm (G@),Gcflm`h (GS), Gtmly (GX), Omdmgcm (OD), Oerhm` (OE), Ompm` (O^), If`ym (IF), Zfpujlgc eaIerfm (IZ), Iuwmgt (I[), Imzmibstm` (I_), Srg Lmìm (LI), Lgtbum`gm (LX),Luxfdjeurk (LV), Lmtvgm (LQ), Derecce (DM), Delhevm (DH), Dmcfhe`gm (DI), Dmlmwg(D[), Dfxgce (DR), Dmlmysgm (DW), @mdgjgm (@M), @gkfrgm (@K), @gcmrmkum (@G),@ftbfrlm`hs (@L), @erwmy (@E), @fw _fmlm`h (@_), ^m`mdm (^M), ^fru (^F), ^mpum@fw Kug`fm (^K), ^bglgppg`fs (^B), ^migstm` (Î), êrtukml (^X), ^mrmkumy (^W),]mtmr (]M), Zedm`gm (ZE), Zussgm` Afhfrmtge` (ZV), Smuhg Mrmjgm (SM), Suhm` (SH),Swfhf` (SF), Sg`kmperf (SK), Fl Smlvmher (SQ), Syrgm` Mrmj Zfpujlgc (SW), Xbmglm`h(XB), Xu`gsgm (X@), Xurify (XZ), Xrg`ghmh & Xejmke (XX), Xm`zm`gm (X_), Virmg`f (VM),V`gtfh Stmtfs (VS), Qf`fzuflm (QF), Wfdf` (WF), Seutb Margcm (_M), _mdjgm (_D).

Fceèdgfs fxcluhfh ared tbf fstgdmtge` huf te lmci ea hmtm mvmglmjglgty (;1)?

Makbm`gstm` (MA), M`kugllm (MG), M`tgkum (MK), Mrujm (M[), Jmbmdms (JS), Jfrduhm(JD), Jbutm` (JX), Jru`fg Hmrussmlmd (J@), Julkmrgm (JK), Jurig`m Amse (JA),

Cmdjehgm (IB), Cmpf Qfrhf (CQ), Cmydm` Gslm`hs (IW), Cf`trml Margcm` Zfpujlgc(CA), Cbmh (XH), Cederes (ID), Ce`ke, Hfdecrmtgc Zfpujlgc Ea (CH), Ceei Gslm`hs(CI), Czfcb Zfpujlgc (C_), Hogjeutg (HO), Hedg`gcm (HD), Frgtrfm (FZ), Kferkgm (KF),Krf`mhm (KH), Kug`fm (K@), Kug`fm-Jgssmu (K[), Kuym`m (KW), Bmgtg (BX), Grm` (GZ),Grmq (G]), Igrgjmtg (IG), Iyrkyz Zfpujlgc (IK), Lme ^HZ (LM), Lfsetbe (LS), Lgjfrgm (LZ),Dmcmu, Cbg`m (DE), Dmhmkmscmr (DK), Dmrsbmll Gslm`hs (DB), Dmurgtm`gm (DZ),Dgcre`fsgm, Afh. Stmtfs Ea (AD), De`kelgm (D@), De`tsfrrmt (DS), @muru (@Z), @fpml(@^), @ftbfrlm`hs M`tgllfs (M@), @fw Cmlfhe`gm (@C), @gkfr (@F), @ertb Ierfm (I^),^mlmu (^[), ^mlfstg`gm` Xfrrgtery (^S), ûfrte Zgce (^Z), Zwm`hm (Z[), Smg`t IgttsM`h @fvgs (I@), Smg`t Lucgm (LC), Smg`t Qg`cf`t M`h Xbf Krf`mhg`fs (QC), Smdem([S), Sfycbfllfs (SC), Slevmigm (SI), Sf`fkml (S@), Selede` Gslm`hs (SJ), Sedmlgm(SE), Surg`mdf (SZ), Swmzglm`h (S_), Xmgpfg,Cbg`m (X[), Xmogigstm` (XO), Xbf Kmdjgm

(KD), Xgder-Lfstf (XL), Xeke (XK), Xe`km (XE), Xuridf`gstm` (XD), Xuris & CmgcesGslm`hs (XC), Xuvmlu (XQ), Vkm`hm (VK), Vzjfigstm` (V_), Qmùmtu (QV), Qgrkg`Gslm`hs, Jrgtgsb (QK).

Mppf`hgx Xmjlf M.=? Suddmry Stmtgstgcs ea tbf Hmtm

Qmrgmjlf Ejs Dfm` Sth. Hfv. Dg` Dmx

Currf`t mcceu`t jmlm`cf%KH^ =,186 ->.8 2.= -:7.2 88.1

G`tfr`mtge`ml rfsfrvfs%KH^ =,186 =8.3 =1.3 >.> ==:.=

Krewtb ea KH^/bfmh =,186 >.1 =.> -1.6 =3.7

@mturml-rfseurcf fxperts%KH^ =,186 :1.= :7.: >.> 77.;

Zfml KH^ krewtb =,186 3.2 8.: -=2.2 88.7Zfml fxcbm`kf rmtf g`hfx

(=77;4=>>) =,186 =>8.; 87.; =7.; 11>.8Steci ea ûjlgc Hfjt/KH^ =,186 6;.8 32.8 >.> 886.;

Xrmhf/KH^ =,186 >.1 >.8 >.> 3.6VS currf`t mcceu`thfagcgt %KH^ =,186 3.3 =.1 ->.: 1.>

KH^ 4 kress hedfstgc prehuct, Ejs 4 ejsfrvmtge`s, Sth. Hfv. 4 stm`hmrh hfvgmtge`, Dg` 4dg`gdud, Dmx 4 dmxgdud.


The People's Republic of China's Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves

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